What price do you expect in October, when trade will be active? Any opinions?
This is the math you should make before investing...
Get ready....
A- Size of the Crypto marketIf we only take the TOP50 coins (see coinmarketcap), you have
- $100 Billion Market cap for the top50
- $4.7 Billion traded in the last 24h
- the $4.7 B
per day are equivalent to a $1.6 trillion per year (x350)
Ratio between MK and traded volumes are = $1,600 B / 100 B = x16.5 (or 4.7% of the K on a day) (Note: 0.047 x 350 = 16.5)
B- Let’s compare to the FOREX market now:For info: look at the standard stock market assets value (sum of MK) = $70 Trillions in 2016. http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/CM.MKT.LCAP.CD
(you can see the dot.com bubble in 1999-2001 and the 2007-2008 financial crisis and the EuroZone 2010 crisis as well)
Now, what is the most comparable to our loved cryptos is the mighty FOREX market: trading of “monnaies”. (even if alts start to behave more and more as STOCKS... another debate)
Links:
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-fx-peaktrading-idUSKCN0VK1UD http://www.businessinsider.com/heres-how-much-currency-is-traded-every-day-2016-9TL;DR: we speak about
$5 Trillion daily, traded or exchanged.
C- What are Derivatives?Read:
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/derivative.aspTL;DR: It’s basically a complex financial product, on which you can leverage your gains. You can trade futures, do swaps and build complex insurances systems to hedge your positions.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_exchange_derivative<<The problem with Derivatives, is that they are like Russian dolls >>
<< aaah, you mean narcissistic and plasticmade ?>>
<< Nope…they I mean can underly from another derivative fcuktard ! Like taking an insurance on an insurance. Or betting on the fact that someone will lose a bet…>>
See it as dreams into dreams… inception like… but with real money. It can go haywire really fast if things take the sh1t route…
(Watch “The Big Short” to understand how these derivatives fcuked the market in 2010…)Now, let’s look ONLY at the foreign exchange derivatives, to be able to compare to cryptos (I know we can argue on that, but please…I will ask you to politely stfu).
We will stick to only Interest rate based derivatives, hence the ones that take into account the currencies evolutions: “OTC single currency interest rate derivatives” ->
http://www.bis.org/publ/rpfx16.htmTL;DR: We have $5 Trillion per day traded (we know already that), and
$2.7 Trillion of derivatives.
That’s the market and that is the ratio to keep in mind: For each currency traded, you have 0.5 traded as a derivative as well.
<< man… this is gonna explode one day... insane...>>D- Back to cryptosRemark: One may argue that, cryptos being more volatile, you’ll have a higher tendency to use derivatives. Other can say that the products are complex and my discourage the average crypto-enthusuast… I believe that, because the crypto market is not professional (read this forum and you’ll see…),
we would have 10x less: 1 / 20 ratio then.As we have $4.7 billion traded per day, let’s happily imagine that we may/might/potentially/maybe/probably have $240 million of derivatives.
We were uusing the forex based ratio, divided by 10.
If we consider the Alt-coins more like stock options, this value can skyrocket… And if we consider that the alts market is increasing, it is safe (lol) to imagine a
$400 million derivative market here.
E- Conclusion: What is the market for DCORP?Total supply of DRP is 6/6 Million tokens so far. They are not clear about how many will be issued, it will depend on the sharholders (DOA) Let’s take a 10M figure in the mid-term.
Ultimately, we have a $400M and 10M tokens: one token has a potential of $40.That is if DCORP is alone on the market, which I doubt... probably we should imagine that they get 1/3 of this market, as early entrants. Exchanges could be the big bad wolf and steal the show by integrating Derivatives in their systems natively (or rely on DCORP solutions ?).
That is $15 per DRP token.
Reminder: ICO terms are not at 400 DRP per ETH, which values to token at $0.8 per token.
at $15 You have a
x20 potential here.
E- Think for yourself now...Based on this, you can make you own opinion
1- be optimistic and imagine that derivatives will flow the cryptos market
(not sure that would be a good thing, but this market is almost made for derivatives).
That would mean a DRP at $100 maybe?
(let me laugh... or cry)2- Or you can be pessimistic, and go the other way, with a DRP around $7 to $10 (still a good profit vs. the ICO).
3- Imagine that once on exchanges, nobody understands derivatives or markets, and you can imagine selling your DRP tokens for a x100 to stupid traders on the exchanges (my plan)
Good luck...
Disclaimer I put a few ETH in DCORP... You're not taking into account 100% of this economy will be controlled by investors unlike other coins that are mined and given away. The only other coin that comes close is stratis. It reached $11 with a 100million coin supply (almost), they allowed mining for a month or so and gave away coins as bounties. DCORP has a much smaller supply (a tenth of it maybe), no miners, no free coins and investors have an incentive to hold (dividends?). $15 would be very cheap on an exchange i feel. $50-$75 would probably be the low here.....
