BLAST...A...CONTEST! PRIZES ARE 1 LTC AND A COMPAC STICK. Picks are closed!

[philipma1957]

No winners link to next thread---- this one will be locked

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1972166.msg19624852#msg19624852
   
Re: BLAST FROM THE PAST A DIFFICULTY CONTEST! PRIZES ARE 1 LTC AND A COMPAC STICK

Altered title to fit  the start  and stop info.

Experimental Image Contribution:



Let's see how this holds up over time.
If it works well enough, feel free to quote it Phil.

Sweet  I like it

when it reaches 1116 picks will start

when it reaches 516-- picks will end---- Please note  I erred and closed it early .  Next round  we will do 516

when it reaches  0 winner will be found or not





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More to follow. I will run it on the next jump


Difficulty History

Date.......................Difficulty............Change......Hash Rate
May 23 2017   595,921,917,085   6.42%   4,265,775,241 GH/s

May 10 2017   559,970,892,891   7.28%   4,008,427,786 GH/s
Apr 27 2017   521,974,519,554   0.22%   3,736,439,151 GH/s
Apr 13 2017   520,808,749,422   4.24%   3,728,094,244 GH/s
Mar 30 2017   499,635,929,817   5.03%   3,576,533,297 GH/s
Mar 17 2017   475,705,205,062   3.24%   3,405,230,497 GH/s
Mar 03 2017   460,769,358,091   4.54%   3,298,315,540 GH/s
Feb 18 2017   440,779,902,287   4.41%   3,155,225,442 GH/s
Feb 04 2017   422,170,566,884   7.43%   3,022,014,630 GH/s
Jan 22 2017   392,963,262,344   16.64%   2,812,940,600 GH/s
Jan 10 2017   336,899,932,796   6.05%   2,411,623,656 GH/s

This jump will end around June 4th. So contest will start around June 4-5-6  with picking starting at block 1116 of the next jump

Bitcoin Difficulty:   595,921,917,085
Estimated Next Difficulty:   643,997,221,046 (+8.07%)

Adjust time:   After 1664 Blocks, About 10.9 days  this is the spot  to look for the start time  next jump at 1116 not this jump


Hashrate(?):   4,637,688,482 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.4 minutes
3 blocks: 28.4 minutes
6 blocks: 56.7 minutes
Updated:   





So 1 compac usb stick  from sidehack

and 1 LTC coin from me.

If you are overseas  I will spring for the shipping of the compac stick. Note the compact stick is the 1 chip version but as always it is fun to play with it.

[VRobb]

The Phil contest is back!!  Aw hell yeah!

Looking forward to it, Phil. 

[philipma1957]

The Phil contest is back!!  Aw hell yeah!

Looking forward to it, Phil.  

Have to find an older thread with the rules


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1484047.msg14964950#msg14964950

 I am checking this list of rules from older thread

1)you must have been on this site since April 1st 2016  you must have at least 30 posts. --    Make it from Feb 1 2017
2)I will check you out if you are new and decide if you can play.
3)you get one play per adjustment. which must be yours alone, in proper format and can not be changed.
4)Do not pick someone else's number If you do I will assign a number and that will not be changed
5) picks start at:

Bitcoin Difficulty:  
Estimated Next Difficulty:  
 
Adjust time:                 Block    1116  
  
Hashrate(?):  
Block Generation Time(?):  
1 block:
3 blocks:
6 blocks:
Updated:  




6) picks end at

Bitcoin Difficulty:  
Estimated Next Difficulty:
  
Adjust time:      516

Hashrate(?):  
Block Generation Time(?):  
1 block:
3 blocks:
6 blocks:
Updated:  



7)  since this is a free contest I make all decisions if there are any issues or problems.


8 ) note the change  picks start later and end late in the hope of helping a person to pick a winner.

9) format is below and this is the  contest picks from 2016 in code

as low as you want

-1.0
-0.9
-0.8
-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
+0.1
+0.2
+0.3
+0.4
+0.5
+0.6
+0.7
+0.8
+0.9
+1.0

to as high as you want

Code:

-1.2 = philipma1957  >>>>  I always pick this number


-0.5 = Erumara        
  0.0 = adaseb
+0.7 = adib
+0.8 = ingiltere
+0.9 = usenet
+1.0 = NeuroticFish
+1.4 = ahmedjamal1998 
+1.5 = lolxxxx
+1.7 = ezeminer
+2.2 = Valkir
+2.3 = fr4nkthetank
+2.7 = blindminer
+3.0 = topiOleg
+3.1 = tlhIlwI
+3.2 = Psi
+3.3 = HagssFIN     
+3.4 = HerbPean
+3.5 = Veves1
+3.6 = Cuidler

+3.7  ! Thank you!    @ Roadstress  Pleaz try to do it right >    +3.7 = Roadstress

+3.9 = flikflak
+4.0 = pusttiu
+4.1 = Amph
+4.2 = VirosaGITS
+4.5 = redhack
+4.6 = talks_cheep
+4.7 = Ankara
+4.8  = indiemax
+4.9 = ATguy
+5.0 = alh
+5.1 = FruitsBasket
+5.2 = VRobb
+5.3 = Dexter770221
+5.4 = gnaoui
+5.5 = vapourminer

+5.6 = mavericklm     I changed your pick to   +5.6 as vapourminer had +5.5

+5.7 = wlefever
+5.8 = Notlist3d
+5.9 = Chris!
+6.5 = wpt1wpt1
+6.6 = edonkey
+6.7 = zebedee
+6.8 = AM4Bitcoin
+6.9% = Mikestang
+7.6 = RichBC

Code:

Difficulty History

Date                     Difficulty                  Change   Hash Rate
May 24 2016   199,312,067,531   2.60%   1,426,731,353 GH/s
May 11 2016   194,254,820,283   8.73%   1,390,530,167 GH/s


Apr 28 2016   178,659,257,773   -0.01%   1,278,892,782 GH/s
Apr 14 2016   178,678,307,672   7.09%   1,279,029,147 GH/s
Apr 01 2016   166,851,513,283   0.82%   1,194,369,655 GH/s
Mar 18 2016   165,496,835,118   4.46%   1,184,672,491 GH/s
Mar 04 2016   158,427,203,767   -3.10%   1,134,066,098 GH/s
Feb 19 2016   163,491,654,909   13.44%   1,170,318,852 GH/s
Feb 07 2016   144,116,447,847   20.06%   1,031,625,717 GH/s
Jan 26 2016   120,033,340,651   5.89%   859,232,121 GH/s
Jan 13 2016   113,354,299,801   9.12%   811,421,684 GH/s
Dec 31 2015   103,880,340,815   11.16%   743,604,444 GH/s
Dec 18 2015   93,448,670,796           18.14%   668,931,642 GH/s
Dec 06 2015   79,102,380,900           8.77%   566,236,898 GH/s
Nov 24 2015   72,722,780,643          10.44%   520,569,941 GH/s
Nov 11 2015   65,848,255,180   5.77%   471,360,171 GH/s
Oct 29 2015   62,253,982,450   2.25%   445,631,364 GH/s
Oct 15 2015   60,883,825,480   0.12%   435,823,399 GH/s
Oct 01 2015   60,813,224,039   2.49%   435,318,014 GH/s
Sep 17 2015   59,335,351,234   4.17%   424,738,988 GH/s
Sep 04 2015   56,957,648,455   4.98%   407,718,729 GH/s
Aug 22 2015   54,256,630,328   2.95%   388,384,088 GH/s
Aug 08 2015   52,699,842,409   0.81%   377,240,166 GH/s
Jul 25 2015   52,278,304,846   2.35%   374,222,683 GH/s
Jul 11 2015   51,076,366,303   3.39%   365,618,871 GH/s
Jun 28 2015   49,402,014,931   -0.58%   353,633,397 GH/s
Jun 14 2015   49,692,386,355   4.42%   355,711,957 GH/s
May 31 2015   47,589,591,154   -2.50%   340,659,563 GH/s
May 17 2015   48,807,487,245   2.44%   349,377,603 GH/s
May 03 2015   47,643,398,018   0.07%   341,044,727 GH/s
Apr 19 2015   47,610,564,513   -3.71%   340,809,696 GH/s
Apr 05 2015   49,446,390,688   5.84%   353,951,052 GH/s
Mar 22 2015   46,717,549,645   -1.50%   334,417,246 GH/s
Mar 08 2015   47,427,554,951   1.59%   339,499,662 GH/s
Feb 22 2015   46,684,376,317   5.01%   334,179,783 GH/s
Feb 09 2015   44,455,415,962   7.71%   318,224,263 GH/s
Jan 27 2015   41,272,873,895   -6.14%   295,442,739 GH/s
Jan 12 2015   43,971,662,056   8.20%   314,761,417 GH/s
Dec 30 2014   40,640,955,017   3.00%   290,919,288 GH/s
Dec 17 2014   39,457,671,307   -1.37%   282,449,013 GH/s
Dec 02 2014   40,007,470,271   -0.73%   286,384,627 GH/s
Nov 18 2014   40,300,030,328   1.76%   288,478,854 GH/s
Nov 05 2014   39,603,666,252   10.05%   283,494,086 GH/s
Oct 23 2014   35,985,640,265   2.81%   257,595,247 GH/s
Oct 09 2014   35,002,482,026   0.98%   250,557,526 GH/s
Sep 25 2014   34,661,425,924   16.20%   248,116,151 GH/s
Sep 13 2014   29,829,733,124   8.75%   213,529,547 GH/s
Aug 31 2014   27,428,630,902   15.03%   196,341,788 GH/s
Aug 19 2014   23,844,670,039   20.86%   170,686,797 GH/s
Aug 08 2014   19,729,645,941   5.30%   141,230,307 GH/s
© 2013-2014 BitcoinWisdom.com

10) Finally If I missed anything  I will be the sole  decider as to what is fair.

[QuintLeo]

+7.0%

[philipma1957]

+7.0%

far too early  not this jump  next jump

[VRobb]

That's what she said! 

[QuintLeo]

If it doesn't jump that much, it will be due to the massive price "correction" the last day or so.

The last 2 diff jumps have both been pretty close to 7% (one over one under), the one we're working on now looks to be close to that when it finishes (it's a bit OVER right now per bitcoinwisdom, was 7.6 when I asked for the 7.0% spot) - I don't see any reason other than Bitmain AND at least 2 of the other miner makers run out of chips for at least the next week for it to be a lot lower.

 8-O


 On the other hand, the current "correction" on Bitcoin price might convince a few would-be miner buyers to hold off.
 Or it might get them wanting to buy faster to stock up more coin before the next surge hits.....

[alh]

I too want to congratulate Phil on deciding to undertake this again!!!

As for the future, while the last week has seen a significant "correction" in the price of BTC, the longer trend of 6 months has been very good in terms of price appreciation. I always believe that hashrate follows BTC price, obviously with some lag time for folks acquire and start mining. Once that's happened, it will usually take a significant long term decline in BTC price to force out inefficient mining hardware from the global BTC network. Looking back 6 months, $2000/BTC still looks pretty good, even if it was $2700/BTC just in the last few days.

[philipma1957]

I too want to congratulate Phil on deciding to undertake this again!!!

As for the future, while the last week has seen a significant "correction" in the price of BTC, the longer trend of 6 months has been very good in terms of price appreciation. I always believe that hashrate follows BTC price, obviously with some lag time for folks acquire and start mining. Once that's happened, it will usually take a significant long term decline in BTC price to force out inefficient mining hardware from the global BTC network. Looking back 6 months, $2000/BTC still looks pretty good, even if it was $2700/BTC just in the last few days.

at 2000 usd

5% growth

a 12500 s9 pulling 1300 watts paying 10 cents a kwatt

will earn  0.5905btc  and will no longer cover power May 31st 2018

I used .9 % fee and blocks of 13.5  since kano.is charges 0.9%  and blocks average 13.5

So if you are all s9  the gear should be good for a year .

[sidehack]

Looks like Phil's got prizes covered for this round. Tell you what, if you want to keep the contest running I'll toss in some 2Pacs for future rounds.

[philipma1957]

Looks like Phil's got prizes covered for this round. Tell you what, if you want to keep the contest running I'll toss in some 2Pacs for future rounds.

Nice I will commit for four rounds .

[sidehack]

Groovy. I should have a couple spares sometime next week, I'll send 'em to ya.

[sebbysebbybinx]

SebbyBinx, creator of the Bitcoin Ring and BijouBlocks Bling pendant, is excited to guess the next difficulty adjustment!!!

[edonkey]

Great to have you back Phil! Thanks for hosting this again.

Our cats stand ready to reprise their former glory by accurately guessing the difficulty!

[philipma1957]

Great to have you back Phil! Thanks for hosting this again.

Our cats stand ready to reprise their former glory by accurately guessing the difficulty!

Still got the cats.

Well next jump will be interesting to say the least.

This one is a big one

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   595,921,917,085
Estimated Next Difficulty:   674,924,138,418 (+13.26%)
Adjust time:   After 173 Blocks, About 1.0 days
Hashrate(?):   4,963,391,009 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 8.6 minutes
3 blocks: 25.9 minutes
6 blocks: 51.8 minutes
Updated:   10:10 (2.5 minutes ago)


It will be over 10% for sure and could push 14%
I have to figure a much lower one coming up.

[QuintLeo]

Looks like Bitmain got a new batch of S9/T9/R4 chips in *AND* someone else (Caanan or Bitfury most likely) also got a new batch of chips in and sold/online over the last week.

[edonkey]

Definitely someone is adding hash to the network. We're looking at nearly a 14% increase in the next 20 minutes.

[philipma1957]

Definitely someone is adding hash to the network. We're looking at nearly a 14% increase in the next 20 minutes.

yep  very close to 14%


Bitcoin Difficulty:   595,921,917,085
Estimated Next Difficulty:   679,134,187,721 (+13.96%)
Adjust time:   After 2 Blocks, About 16.8 minutes
Hashrate(?):   5,014,813,215 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 8.4 minutes
3 blocks: 25.2 minutes
6 blocks: 50.5 minutes
Updated:   10:20 (4.8 minutes ago)


Difficulty History

Date   Difficulty   Change   Hash Rate
May 23 2017   595,921,917,085   6.42%   4,265,775,241 GH/s
May 10 2017   559,970,892,891   7.28%   4,008,427,786 GH/s
Apr 27 2017   521,974,519,554   0.22%   3,736,439,151 GH/s


 so on April 27th  diff = 521.9
and on June 4th  diff =  680 ?   680/521.9 = 1.303    or 30% jump




coin price today = 2500  
coin price on apr 25th was about 1300



 so 2500/1300 =   1.923   or a 92% price jump     so if  the april 25-27  numbers are close to correct .

     we  need  4  more diff jumps  of 10%   to even out .   So  we would be at a 994 diff!

  Damn that is big  but if price holds at 2500  a 994 diff is the same as a 521 diff at 1300 price.

You wonder how fast we can ramp up to the 994 level.

[OgNasty]

Thank you for putting this on. I don't think I've ever participated, but I do enjoy watching the threads.

[vh]

Experimental Image Contribution:



Let's see how this holds up over time.
If it works well enough, feel free to quote it Phil.