The End Is Near

[Kluge]

Can someone help me with this thought?

I see the altcoins as devaluing and having the potential to replace BTC. So, BTC is inherently threatened.

Since BTC/LTC/FTC are so similar,  doesn't it have the effect of "printing money" on the market, since all of them are the same and can be used for the same purpose? Why is BTC any better than any Altcoin or a combination of all of them? It seems like we went from 17 million coins, plus 4x that, plus 4x that 2nd number again!

So, why would BTC be worth more LONG TERM? It's because of USABILITY - if you can't use it, you won't buy it - and the price will drop! Whatever coin is being used, will have value - Unless its replaced by competition! I could see this happening repeatedly over the coming years - if another coin is able to out-compete BTC, inevitably something better will come along! I don't see BTC being particularly more USABLE than LTC for much at this point, so wheres the value? In its "potential"- but doesn't that  belong to all cryptocurrencies?

Unless BTC is somehow signed into law or permanently becomes the ONLY option mid/long term, it's value will always be in danger of other cyrptocurrencies taking its place, IMO.

BTC's more fungible because it's more established and popular, thus more usable. Exchanges aren't going to add a hundred BTC clones, nor are many merchants going to start accepting Feathercoins any time soon. BTC's always in danger of being replaced, but they'd have to be dramatically better to get over the adoption hurdle.

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[statdude]

Agree Kluge. And that's why it trades at well over its closest competitors - and that holds much value. I guess this just means it's important to be careful - but I agree, whichever coin is widely accepted will be TOUGH to beat out, but not impossible.

Reminds me of Blue Ray vs HD DVD - for the world's future currency.

[noedaRDH]

Can someone help me with this thought?

I see the altcoins as devaluing and having the potential to replace BTC. So, BTC is inherently threatened.

Since BTC/LTC/FTC are so similar,  doesn't it have the effect of "printing money" on the market, since all of them are the same and can be used for the same purpose? Why is BTC any better than any Altcoin or a combination of all of them? It seems like we went from 17 million coins, plus 4x that, plus 4x that 2nd number again!

So, why would BTC be worth more LONG TERM? It's because of USABILITY - if you can't use it, you won't buy it - and the price will drop! Whatever coin is being used, will have value - Unless its replaced by competition! I could see this happening repeatedly over the coming years - if another coin is able to out-compete BTC, inevitably something better will come along! I don't see BTC being particularly more USABLE than LTC for much at this point, so wheres the value? In its "potential"- but doesn't that  belong to all cryptocurrencies?

Unless BTC is somehow signed into law or permanently becomes the ONLY option mid/long term, it's value will always be in danger of other cyrptocurrencies taking its place, IMO.

It's called the network effect. There are a dozen Facebook clones out there but that doesn't mean they are used; people head towards the network with the largest amount of traffic and users. Apply that to BTC's - no point to hold any alt. coins if the alternate networks have very few users.

[noedaRDH]

And consider these facts:

-Bitcoin is open-source CURRENCY. It is not a PRODUCT being pushed and marketed by powerful elites (with their endless supply of brainwashing guru's) with really really deep pockets.

Right.  It doesn't have the force of powerful elites/brainwashing gurus/a country's economy/regulatory bodies/military/etc., etc. backing it up.  Those happen to be the very things that lend value to currency, stabilize that value & inspire confidence.  Bitcoin has ...  

-No one has tried introduce a disruptive tech like Bitcoins before, a tech that fights centralized banking

Not sure what you mean by "disruptive tech," a currency which is introduced into an established economy *on top of* existent currency to *dilute & devalue it*?  I'm not sure how that's fundamentally different from printing & pumping more $ bills into the economy -- you haven't introduced anything else of value into the system, have you?

-It's a CURRENCY not backed by a centralized power <- remember this, it is not some smartphone or some piece of operating system, which are just products on top of existing products that the masses are ready to consume... the whole philosophical idea behind Bitcoins is totally foreign to the average citizen who don't understand how their papers are created

Well, see above, +
There are "philosophical ideas" that are too intricate & sublime for the average Joe to understand quickly.  And some "philosophical ideas" are simply ... bad, ill-formed drivel.  Clumsy mental constructs that fail the test of reality. "Average citizen" doesn't get them 'coz he's smart.

Those facts alone makes life VERY difficult for Bitcoins. So to have Bitcoins where it is today (in a relatively short lifetime of 4 years) I would say Bitcoins is ALREADY a smashing success.

Bitcoin *could* be going through growing pains, or death throes--everything you said seems to point to the latter.  Yeah, the success of Bitcoin up 'till now is nothing short of *amazing*.  OTOH, a horse that can count up to ten is an amazing horse, not an amazing mathematician. (somebody clever (not i) came up with the horse bit)

That said, i'm a noob, and could be dead-wrong. If nothing else, Bitcoin's wikid' interesting.  

[edit] Whoops.  reply to https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=193445.msg2008578#msg2008578

See, the thing is, Bitcoins are not backed by a military or force; there's no one on the magnitude of Apple or IBM or whoever else forcing this thing onto people. You'll hear very little about Bitcoins outside of maybe a random blip on a news channel or certain circles of the internet. So if Bitcoin continues to succeed, it will be because average people see the advantage of using it, not because someone forces them (or as you said, brainwashes them) to use it. Now if people are going to use it out of their own accord, and enough people follow suit, then you can see how that would inspire confidence, especially for those who want to try something new and something that's not backed by violence.

It is indeed a disruptive tech. How much would exchange students or domestic workers or others who need money transfers on a regular basis stand to benefit if Bitcoins become popular with that crowd? They can dodge fees from Western Union or wire transfers, hurting WU and other companies involved in the money transfer business. What about Ebay? What if someone set up something like Ebay but instead uses exclusively Bitcoins or other alt currencies? They just have to undercut Ebay/Paypal a little and ensure that they are responsible enough to take on the "escrow"-like role for a small fee.

I don't see how the philosophical ideas of Bitcoins is drivel... perhaps you don't think of them as important or worthy of thought, that doesn't mean that others will follow in your path. Those who do think about those ideas can gamble and potentially gain something in return. The "average joe" doesn't know how their bank operates but that doesn't stop them from putting some money in the bank. Eventually Bitcoins will expand far enough so that even the average person can gain from being in the system and lose out from not.

I can hardly see a situation where Bitcoins will "die" in a fashion where it cannot recover and once again excel. We've seen cases where it looked like Bitcoins was doomed in the past, but after some time, it is back with more vitality than ever.

EDIT: I'm not saying that Bitcoins will succeed; it might succeed but that day might not be as close as some of us like to think. But the point is that, thus far, Bitcoins has come a long way. And I think we should take the time to reflect on that and appreciate its success.

[schmokel]

Eh.  It's only disruptive if people adopt it en masse.  What do you think is more likely?  Western Union, Moneygram, MasterCard, Visa, Amazon, Ripple, etc. improving p2p money transfer, or BTC usurping all of the competition?  I used to be bullish on BTC, but giving it more thought, the value of this currency/commodity is too heavily tied to speculation and hype.  How many people just a few days ago were falling over themselves to say that $100 would never be broken again?  Honestly, I think what's more likely is that something similar to BTC and is redeemable for something of value (rather than dissipated watts in an ASIC) is the future.  If you think fiat requires a leap of faith, BTC requires an absolute acid trip.

[DoomDumas]

Good bye. How much do you sell your Bitcointalk account?

I would'nt pay a satoshi for a so many "ignored" account

[antimattercrusader]

I find the blue font color lends a lot of credibility to this argument. Only a counter argument in a red font could convince me otherwise.

lmao

[bitcon]

this feels like April 13th all over again: the last time i bought $60 coins from weak hands.

[Come-from-Beyond]

More altcoins have appeared, people have started to criticize Bitcoin Foundation, Gox has been sued. Seems I was right...

[Nikolaj06]

More altcoins have appeared, people have started to criticize Bitcoin Foundation, Gox has been sued. Seems I was right...

For the love of Science, please state your sources! All I see are words in a particular order claiming something they don't back.

(Gox being sued is the only one I'm sure is legit)

[solex]

IT ONLY HAS BEGUN!!!

In 4 years since the launch? U r kidding.

You are partly right. The end of the beginning is near. The beginning of the middle is starting and that is when it REALLY gets interesting!

Altcoin prices will only ever hang onto the coattails of BTC.

[Come-from-Beyond]

More altcoins have appeared, people have started to criticize Bitcoin Foundation, Gox has been sued. Seems I was right...

For the love of Science, please state your sources! All I see are words in a particular order claiming something they don't back.

(Gox being sued is the only one I'm sure is legit)

[ANN] a new coin based on Litecoin - CHNCoin
[ANN] BitBar New POW-POS scrypt CryptoCoin
[ANN] GCoin release
JunkCoin, the newest Litecoin-based alt coin has arrived!


The Bitcoin Foundation needs to take a more active Public Role
So many issues with the bitcoin foundation, how much longer are we giving it?
A call for the Bitcoin Foundation to appoint a new board or dissolve
Make protecting and promoting decentralization a Bitcoin Foundation goal
How to resign as a Bitcoin Foundation member?

[SAQ]

IT ONLY HAS BEGUN!!!

In 4 years since the launch? U r kidding.

Lol - 4 years is a long time? Had you heard of the internet in 1994? - Most people had not.

It was not until 2000 - 2001 that the internet became big. 4 years is the beginning phrase bro.

[Come-from-Beyond]

IT ONLY HAS BEGUN!!!

In 4 years since the launch? U r kidding.

Lol - 4 years is a long time? Had you heard of the internet in 1994? - Most people had not.

It was not until 2000 - 2001 that the internet became big. 4 years is the beginning phrase bro.

I have a different opinion, bro.

[SAQ]

IT ONLY HAS BEGUN!!!

In 4 years since the launch? U r kidding.

Lol - 4 years is a long time? Had you heard of the internet in 1994? - Most people had not.

It was not until 2000 - 2001 that the internet became big. 4 years is the beginning phrase bro.

I have a different opinion, bro.

Right, well that settles it.

[warpio]

doom and gloom. it's happening. be afraid. etc...

[Come-from-Beyond]

One more proof that I was right - WARNING! Bitcoin will soon block small transaction outputs.
As I said core devs failed to solve scalability issues.

[master-P]

One more proof that I was right - WARNING! Bitcoin will soon block small transaction outputs.
As I said core devs failed to solve scalability issues.

That doesn't seem good at all

[Frozenlock]

Read the pull request. It really isn't that bad.

Road map:
(...)
So IsDust() will be based on what is actually being accepted into blocks, and will adjust appropriately

[kalinka]

Mass worldwide adoption isn't going to happen...those who think it will are dreaming. But it doesn't really need to. People who want to use bitcoin still can use bitcoin.