China : The next price bump

[anu]

Quick news flash.

Average gross income is < $5500 per year. (2010)

All this "new money"? Let's talk smaller.

70% of Chinese are not even really part of the economy, but they count for the average. Those who read Xinhua are part of the economy.

But yeah, you're right. We're not talking about 100K per year.

[Odalv]

Whens the chinese money gonna get here?

price has been stable all day :-/

I personally don't think it'll hit till Thursday/Friday.

I'm actually not sure what's supressing the price just now. The only thing I can think of is people who were burnt in the last bubble of $260.

I agree. It will take time for Chinese to do the research, make the decision and finally wire the money. If we're talking 100k new converts in the last few days and they end up putting in $100 on average we will say $10m new money coming in.

Personally I think we have come a long way since January. We've had over a month with a price that has been $100-ish or above, with minor dips into double digits and I think that's quite impressive considering all the negative events like the lawsuit, the freezing of bank accounts of exchanges etc.

Considering the situation it doesn't seem unlikely that we will see a new all time high within the next 30 days.

Yes, it will take few months (what is bitcoin?, is my money safe?, is it scam?, is it ponzi?, a lot of question they have to solve) but then ...

[Awhut]

Quick news flash.

Average gross income is < $5500 per year. (2010)

All this "new money"? Let's talk smaller.

70% of Chinese are not even really part of the economy, but they count for the average. Those who read Xinhua are part of the economy.

But yeah, you're right. We're not talking about 100K per year.

But there is $ in numbers. If every single person in China invested $1 in BTC that would mean an injection of 1.34billion into BTC That would make BTC worth $120 without including any of the western investment. Of course not everyone will invest but even 1% of China's population is 13.4 million and I'm sure a wealthy minority will invest a little more than $1

[Jrock]

A big order I forgot about got filled slightly under $100 a pop. So now Bitcoin is definately gonna crash, not go up.

[jinni]

Quick news flash.

Average gross income is < $5500 per year. (2010)

All this "new money"? Let's talk smaller.

China has more then 1 million millionaires (owning more than $1.6m).

Income in China is grossly under-reported.  

Even if you make $5500 a year, $100 is still only 1.8% of that. Considering Chinese people are saving around 40% of their disposable income, investing a little in Bitcoin should be easily doable.

[anu]

Quick news flash.

Average gross income is < $5500 per year. (2010)

All this "new money"? Let's talk smaller.

70% of Chinese are not even really part of the economy, but they count for the average. Those who read Xinhua are part of the economy.

But yeah, you're right. We're not talking about 100K per year.

But there is $ in numbers. If every single person in China invested $1 in BTC

What I was trying to bring across is that 30% of Chinese, that's 300 million, are not so much different from us in their actual income and daily lives.

[kokojie]

Quick news flash.

Average gross income is < $5500 per year. (2010)

All this "new money"? Let's talk smaller.

70% of Chinese are not even really part of the economy, but they count for the average. Those who read Xinhua are part of the economy.

But yeah, you're right. We're not talking about 100K per year.

But there is $ in numbers. If every single person in China invested $1 in BTC

What I was trying to bring across is that 30% of Chinese, that's 300 million, are not so much different from us in their actual income and daily lives.

That's a vast over-estimation. I'd say 30 million would be more accurate. There are about 30 million Chinese with income comparable to US/EU. The vast majority are much lower. New college grads make about $500/month salary in China, and that's considered very good start salary for a college grad.

[Inedible]

Doesn't look like their funds are materialising or if they are, they're very small (as many have mentioned).

[elux]

Quick news flash.

Average gross income is < $5500 per year. (2010)

All this "new money"? Let's talk smaller.

70% of Chinese are not even really part of the economy, but they count for the average. Those who read Xinhua are part of the economy.

But yeah, you're right. We're not talking about 100K per year.

But there is $ in numbers. If every single person in China invested $1 in BTC

What I was trying to bring across is that 30% of Chinese, that's 300 million, are not so much different from us in their actual income and daily lives.

That's a vast over-estimation. I'd say 30 million would be more accurate. There are about 30 million Chinese with income comparable to US/EU.
The vast majority are much lower. New college grads make about $500/month salary in China, and that's considered very good start salary for a college grad.

Regarding Chinese purchasing power:

The market for luxury goods in the People's Republic of China composes a significant proportion of all luxury goods sales worldwide.

As of 2010, China is the world's second largest consumer market for luxury goods,[1] next only to Japan,[2] and having surpassed the United States in 2009.[3]

The World Luxury Association estimated the total amount of consumption for luxury goods in China was US$8.6 billion in 2008.

This accounted for 25% of the world's luxury goods sales. According to Ouyang Kun, the Chief Representative of the World Luxury Association in China,
"The disposable income of Chinese people has been constantly rising in recent years. Global luxury brands now see China as the next Japan."[3]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luxury_goods_in_the_People%27s_Republic_of_China

By some forecasts China will be the second-largest consumer market in the world by 2015, not far behind America. Chinese people already buy more cars than people in any other country: 13.5m last year to Americans' 11.6m. China is on its way to becoming the biggest luxury-goods market. The central government made an increase in domestic consumption one of the priorities of its latest five-year plan.

http://www.economist.com/node/18928514

The feelgood factor

A survey by McKinsey of Chinese consumers found that after an initial burst of “if you’ve got it, flaunt it”, motives for buying foreign luxury brands were becoming more subtle. Some respondents saw having the right car as a visiting card with which to impress potential business partners. Many considered a fancy car a delightful self-indulgence rather than something to show off to others. Mr Müller-Ötvös sees the same trend among Rolls-Royce buyers: they are less interested in exterior bling, more in interior comforts, “like having the fur inside your coat”.

In China the market for luxury cars in the past decade has grown by an average of 36% a year, far outstripping the 26% annual rise in its overall car market. Even as growth slows down in the next few years, McKinsey expects the premium-car market to maintain a lead, expanding by an average of 12% a year to 2020, compared with around 8% for the car market as a whole. By then China will be the biggest market for luxury cars.

http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21576225-why-everyone-wants-be-top-end-market-dreams-wheels

[XXthetimeisnowXX]

after learning about bit coins it took me about 4 months before i even bout one...and that was at 3 to 5 per bit. this is not going to be an overnight thing....but it will increase the value of btc.

i herd about the Internet on the news when i was young like 7th grade on "Chanel 1" and it didn't really catch for another 5 years.

if this is the broadcast about the Internet and if its similar to what happend then, then it will be probably 2-4 years before a good amount of adoption and saturation.

[Crazy]

Anyone that's learning about BTC now will see the massive bubble and assume the correction is not yet complete. You will probably never see the huge blind dumping that occurred before; or at least not for a long time. Don't hold your breath for some massive move from a quick inflow of capital.

[BitPirate]

Quick news flash.

Average gross income is < $5500 per year. (2010)

All this "new money"? Let's talk smaller.

70% of Chinese are not even really part of the economy, but they count for the average. Those who read Xinhua are part of the economy.

But yeah, you're right. We're not talking about 100K per year.

But there is $ in numbers. If every single person in China invested $1 in BTC

What I was trying to bring across is that 30% of Chinese, that's 300 million, are not so much different from us in their actual income and daily lives.

That's a vast over-estimation. I'd say 30 million would be more accurate. There are about 30 million Chinese with income comparable to US/EU.
The vast majority are much lower. New college grads make about $500/month salary in China, and that's considered very good start salary for a college grad.

Regarding Chinese purchasing power:

The market for luxury goods in the People's Republic of China composes a significant proportion of all luxury goods sales worldwide.

As of 2010, China is the world's second largest consumer market for luxury goods,[1] next only to Japan,[2] and having surpassed the United States in 2009.[3]

The World Luxury Association estimated the total amount of consumption for luxury goods in China was US$8.6 billion in 2008.

This accounted for 25% of the world's luxury goods sales. According to Ouyang Kun, the Chief Representative of the World Luxury Association in China,
"The disposable income of Chinese people has been constantly rising in recent years. Global luxury brands now see China as the next Japan."[3]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luxury_goods_in_the_People%27s_Republic_of_China

By some forecasts China will be the second-largest consumer market in the world by 2015, not far behind America. Chinese people already buy more cars than people in any other country: 13.5m last year to Americans' 11.6m. China is on its way to becoming the biggest luxury-goods market. The central government made an increase in domestic consumption one of the priorities of its latest five-year plan.

http://www.economist.com/node/18928514

The feelgood factor

A survey by McKinsey of Chinese consumers found that after an initial burst of “if you’ve got it, flaunt it”, motives for buying foreign luxury brands were becoming more subtle. Some respondents saw having the right car as a visiting card with which to impress potential business partners. Many considered a fancy car a delightful self-indulgence rather than something to show off to others. Mr Müller-Ötvös sees the same trend among Rolls-Royce buyers: they are less interested in exterior bling, more in interior comforts, “like having the fur inside your coat”.

In China the market for luxury cars in the past decade has grown by an average of 36% a year, far outstripping the 26% annual rise in its overall car market. Even as growth slows down in the next few years, McKinsey expects the premium-car market to maintain a lead, expanding by an average of 12% a year to 2020, compared with around 8% for the car market as a whole. By then China will be the biggest market for luxury cars.

http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21576225-why-everyone-wants-be-top-end-market-dreams-wheels

Don't forget the biggest point -- there are more millionaires in China that anywhere else in the world. The average income per capita may be low; but the population of affluent potential investors is extremely high -- there are plenty of people with silly money here.