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Author Topic: BIP 148/149 UASF and SegWit  (Read 1540 times)
deisik
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June 18, 2017, 04:42:57 PM
 #21

I am quite confused on how that blockchain may split and when it may split

You are certainly not alone

And you shouldn't listen to anyone advocating their position. If you blindly follow someone's advice, you will most likely lose everything in the end. If you don't understand how things are going to evolve, you'd better get out of this situation entirely, otherwise you are essentially gambling. More specifically, selling for fiat at least some of your bitcoins (provided you have any) may be the best option right now. Price stability is very deceiving, and there is circumstantial evidence that people are in fact selling their coins at highs while not buying them back at dips. In this way, the market becomes thinner and the price can be easily maintained at a certain level until it is too late to get out

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June 18, 2017, 05:16:36 PM
 #22

Just to complete what BillyBobZorton said: In case you do not understand much of the subject, keep your Bitcoins and don't do any transaction during the turbulence that we will have if there is a chain split if you want to make sure there is no risks of losing any of your coins.

You can leave them standing in any wallet that you control the private keys, so do not store your coins in any web wallet/exchange.

In my case I will just hold all my BTC and pay attention to the news that will come out during this period so you know what to do, and check both /r/bitcoin and /r/btc for instructions on people's options from both sides.

This is what you need to do, do not transact... I know it sucks, but I guess that is the best you can do in the scenario of a potential split. If you do transact, then always do it from your full node, knowing exactly what end you are sending (legacy or 148). Also make sure you are dealing with a non scammy exchange that will not let you choose between legacy and 148 coins.

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June 18, 2017, 08:04:55 PM
 #23

I am surprised there has been no mention of Segwit2X, this has a planned release for July 21st, and so if this gets acceptance, this will be the defacto bitcoin (imo this is the best compromise, larger blocks and segwit activation).  With my understanding, if this is successful before August 1st then 148 is moot, as it is already activated within Segwit2X.

Maybe someone with a better understanding can explain this better?...
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June 18, 2017, 08:21:50 PM
 #24

I am surprised there has been no mention of Segwit2X, this has a planned release for July 21st, and so if this gets acceptance, this will be the defacto bitcoin (imo this is the best compromise, larger blocks and segwit activation).  With my understanding, if this is successful before August 1st then 148 is moot, as it is already activated within Segwit2X.

Maybe someone with a better understanding can explain this better?...

I think if you give the maximum benefit of the doubt you can possibly give the miners, they are behaving the way they are behaving because if Segwit alone is all that's implemented, they believe, rightly or wrongly, that the future for them will be collecting fewer main chain fees because of Lightning network, and only dust-like fees from actual Lightning network transactions.

Combine this with ever diminishing block rewards, it's possible they see their financial future as dimmer and dimmer in bitcoin. So really they need to see something positive from their future fee collection standpoint, and a bump to 2Mb blocks is something they can point to as a "life line" for their future.

That's the absolute most benefit of the doubt scenario I can come up with, and if it's close to reality (doubt it's the entire story) then your scenario may come to pass. It's just that this hard fork to 2 MB is going to be so difficult and so contentious....could get nasty.
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June 18, 2017, 08:24:03 PM
 #25

What will happen if, for example, you withdraw your coins or make a transaction on July 31 and, due to the congestion on the network it remains on the blockchain when a fork occurs? What could happen with those coins?

Anyway, in such situation, on July 31 you better don´t withdraw your bitcoin from any exchange, you better buy any altcoin.

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June 18, 2017, 08:32:26 PM
 #26

So I thought I would start this topic based upon the many questions that I, and many other users currently have in relation to the upcoming months and potential changes that we are going to see in Bitcoin. My main area of concern is around the potential split, if this where to happen and we were to end up with two separate chains what would happen to Bitcoin in terms of value? Secondly where can my bitcoin be kept safe throughout this period of time? Should i HODL or convert my BTC into another coin?

If there where a split would we see a sudden increase in another specified coin such as Ethereum,Monero or Litecoin?

I know that it is near impossible to predict the exact outcomes however Im eager to gain further insight and hear your thoughts on which proposal is most likely, what each proposal actually means, what you can foresee happening if those changes are made and how we can protect ourselves from any potentially devestating effects.

In case of split, you must keep your bitcoins in a private key that you control. Ideally, you want to run a full node, so download Bitcoin Core from bitcoin.org and you'll be ok.

If there is an actual split and 2 coin situation happen, if you are running a full node, you will receive the same amount of coins you are holding on both chains.

So let's see, you have 10 BTC in your Bitcoin Core wallet, and UASF gets enough miner support to split.

So now you have 10 legacy-chain coins and 10 BIP148-chain coins.

Since you are running a full node, you have total control. You can send your 10 legacy coins in an exchange, and sell them for BIP148 coins.

Or you can download a BIP148 full node, and sell them for legacy-chain coins or whatever you want to do.

I don't know how it exactly works with paper wallets, Trezors etc.

The bottom line is, don't keep the coins in an exchange, because you will not receive coins on both chains unless the exchange is wiling to do that for you.

As I remember what happened with the split of Ethereum, there were 2 exchanges that did not give their customers the corresponding ETC tokens that they had the right to have, BTCe and Coinbase. All the rest were happy to list ETC and had it available for trading.



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June 18, 2017, 09:39:22 PM
 #27

What will happen if, for example, you withdraw your coins or make a transaction on July 31 and, due to the congestion on the network it remains on the blockchain when a fork occurs? What could happen with those coins?

Anyway, in such situation, on July 31 you better don´t withdraw your bitcoin from any exchange, you better buy any altcoin.

Learning about this,

1. KEEP COINS LOCALLY !
2. (after August 1st  / 21st July ) DON'T MAKE TRANSACTIONS UNTIL THE NEWS COME OUT.

Those with millions let them change/transact at first. They can handle a loss. We simply wait for the news.
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June 18, 2017, 10:06:20 PM
 #28

I am surprised there has been no mention of Segwit2X, this has a planned release for July 21st, and so if this gets acceptance, this will be the defacto bitcoin (imo this is the best compromise, larger blocks and segwit activation).  With my understanding, if this is successful before August 1st then 148 is moot, as it is already activated within Segwit2X.

Maybe someone with a better understanding can explain this better?...

I think if you give the maximum benefit of the doubt you can possibly give the miners, they are behaving the way they are behaving because if Segwit alone is all that's implemented, they believe, rightly or wrongly, that the future for them will be collecting fewer main chain fees because of Lightning network, and only dust-like fees from actual Lightning network transactions.

Combine this with ever diminishing block rewards, it's possible they see their financial future as dimmer and dimmer in bitcoin. So really they need to see something positive from their future fee collection standpoint, and a bump to 2Mb blocks is something they can point to as a "life line" for their future.


That's the absolute most benefit of the doubt scenario I can come up with, and if it's close to reality (doubt it's the entire story) then your scenario may come to pass. It's just that this hard fork to 2 MB is going to be so difficult and so contentious....could get nasty.

+1
This is the exact same conclusion I have come to.

I see this situation as being the choice between a chain split (bip148) or a hard fork Segwit2X.  Whatever happens there is going to be a split/fork (otherwise bitcoin will not be able to handle the current scaling issue and will die due to much competition) so imo it is a choice of choosing the best of a bad situation.  The markets will ultimately show who was correct (lightning vs bigger block sizes) if segwit2x is activated.

Logically, it seems Segwit2X will be the winner in this fight because it resolves both opposing views.  If segwit2x does get miner support i.e., > 80% total network hash power, then I can't see this being a bad fork, the remaining hash would be too small to deal with the current difficulty level of mining the next block (on the "old" chain).   In this scenario, an Ethereum classic vs Ethereum situation is not possible (?).  Though happy to be proved wrong as I am still considering my options as a hodler, and consideration for adding to my position during this speculation, as I expect some wild fluctuation of the bitcoin price these coming months.

A point worth noting is that holders of bitcoin should be concerned with transactions after and including July 21st (not August 1st).
Edit: the 21st July would be the Segwit2x signalling date i.e., segwit could go live this date (+) however the activation of the 2mb hard fork would be delayed until September 21st or 3 months after segwit.
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June 18, 2017, 10:15:18 PM
 #29

I am surprised there has been no mention of Segwit2X, this has a planned release for July 21st, and so if this gets acceptance, this will be the defacto bitcoin (imo this is the best compromise, larger blocks and segwit activation).  With my understanding, if this is successful before August 1st then 148 is moot, as it is already activated within Segwit2X.

Maybe someone with a better understanding can explain this better?...

I think if you give the maximum benefit of the doubt you can possibly give the miners, they are behaving the way they are behaving because if Segwit alone is all that's implemented, they believe, rightly or wrongly, that the future for them will be collecting fewer main chain fees because of Lightning network, and only dust-like fees from actual Lightning network transactions.

Combine this with ever diminishing block rewards, it's possible they see their financial future as dimmer and dimmer in bitcoin. So really they need to see something positive from their future fee collection standpoint, and a bump to 2Mb blocks is something they can point to as a "life line" for their future.

That's the absolute most benefit of the doubt scenario I can come up with, and if it's close to reality (doubt it's the entire story) then your scenario may come to pass. It's just that this hard fork to 2 MB is going to be so difficult and so contentious....could get nasty.


Ye, it does sound like Bitmain and its other big mining brothers are afraid of control not being dependent on their mining equipment ? It does seem to me that Bitmain and its 4 other brothers ( all i know is someone said there is 5 big miner companies at the moment ) are not playing fair here ... So Bitmain doesn't seem to have the moral ground. ( I am still not entirely sure who has the Moral here though.. To me this has to be the group of people that supports the openness, fairness and decentralization of Bitcoin... which are the most important factors for Bitcoin's success )

However. Bitmain, Coinbase and 23 others are supporting their own fork change, involving 2 mb size increase. This group has 83 percent of the hashing power, according to their own post so this means whatever happens they will do their own thing !


So we have two teams:

Team1.
=====
Bitcoin Core Devs
These guys: https://bitcoincore.org/en/team/

Maybe these guys ? https://bitcoincore.org/en/segwit_adoption/ Why is Coinbase/GDAX in both teams ?

Team2.
=====
Proclaimed hollders of 80% of the hash power: Bitmain, Coinbase and 23 others.

These guys:
https://medium.com/@DCGco/bitcoin-scaling-agreement-at-consensus-2017-133521fe9a77



Both parties want to implement a change and both seem determined to implement it.

Team 1 Wants to implement the change using this:
https://bitcoincore.org/en/2016/01/26/segwit-benefits/


Team 2 Wants To implement the change using this:
https://medium.com/@DCGco/bitcoin-scaling-agreement-at-consensus-2017-133521fe9a77
https://blog.bitmain.com/en/uahf-contingency-plan-uasf-bip148/


Both parties seem so determined that in fact after 1st August there will two blockchains ( I am not a super expert so don''t take me as if I am god on this ). And indeed us holding our coins is the way to be safest.


If Team 2 is indeed that commercial group that has monopolized the hashate, then they will do their own thing no matter what. If Team 1 has only up to 17 percent of the hashrate, then Team 1's change will not be implemented by the majority commercials. ( Again , I am not sure if Team 2 indeed represents 83 percent of the mining AND commercial power behind Bitcoin, maybe yes maybe no, can someone check ? )


After 1st August , one interesting question is, since each of us will have a copy of our coins on each blockchain ... wouldn't that mean that we will now have literally doubled our bitcoins in real terms equivalent to how good both blockchains progress.??

In other words we are not screwed at all. In fact we might like this Smiley. Double money !.  The question is, is that what happened to  Ethereum and Ethereum Classic ?  Did people get coins in each version ? They are probably not too sad about it. Ie no one lost after the fork / split.

In summary... the trade should continue. Towards 1st of August ( or 21st July) ... keep coins with you.
There may be some fluctuation on the price... but remember the big Exchanges seem to be in Team 2's / Bitminer's camp ... some price drop is expected but should remain pretty strong ..  

Are all big exchanges ( kraken, etc ) also with Bitmain and Coinbase and those 23 others in Team 2 ?

Given the importance of this I don't like that each Exchange hasn't come  up officially with their intended direction after 1st August.  Or perhaps they have ?


I encourage people to research further , and don't let what I wrote scare you or anything .. I am just researching about this since couple of days.







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June 18, 2017, 10:38:54 PM
 #30

"If a hard fork occurs, what will happen to my bitcoins?
Depending on how you store your bitcoins, e.g. desktop wallet, online wallet, exchange…etc, you can expect one of three scenarios:
1. All of your coins will become BTC only
2. All of your coins will become BTU only.
3. Your coins will be doubled, so if you had 2 coins before the fork occurs, you will have 2 BTC and 2 BTU after forking is completed."

is it possible to end up with option 3 using a Trezor?
or do I have to have to use Bitcoin Unlimited?
thank you.

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June 18, 2017, 10:52:18 PM
 #31

Some further reading regarding Segwit2x:

http://www.coindesk.com/first-look-bitcoin-scaling-proposal-segwit2x-gets-alpha-release/

https://news.bitcoin.com/chinese-miners-segwit2x/
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June 19, 2017, 05:24:51 AM
 #32

I have edited my response (2-up), effectively saying I was wrong with hard fork date for segwit2x (I had assumed the hard fork was simultaneous put live with segwit activation).   Instead, segwit will be activated when/if sufficient miner votes made. However, the hardfolk will be activated either September 21st or 3 months after this.  As explained by "jgarzik":
Quote
The prediction is that miners activate rapidly, therefore, block 485218 (BIP102_FORK_MIN_HEIGHT) becomes the hard fork point. "+3 months" is the fallback safety measure, in case activation is slower than predicted.
See this thread for further details: https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/6i16gl/psa_how_segwit2x_actually_works/
(definitely worth a read if any of you are concerned by this!)
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June 19, 2017, 08:35:50 AM
 #33

As I remember what happened with the split of Ethereum, there were 2 exchanges that did not give their customers the corresponding ETC tokens that they had the right to have, BTCe and Coinbase. All the rest were happy to list ETC and had it available for trading

I was unaware of the Ethereum split at the time

I'm not much interested in altcoins as such apart from Litecoin (which has all odds to become a new Bitcoin) but I read it quite often here that Coinbase didn't create and credit the accounts of their clients with Ethereum Classic. They may justify it somehow, for example, that they have only 2 major coins (now 3) or something to that tune. But I didn't know about Btc-e. They have tons of coins listed, so if ETC tokens manage to survive and they get listed everywhere, this exchange may have to face certain "moral" issues when listing this coin (especially if they have already sold the Ethereum Classic coins of their clients)

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June 19, 2017, 09:18:25 AM
 #34



well my view..(not that it means much in 2013 I drank the BFL kool aid..so beware..I was such a cute clueless newbie then...sigh)

anyway

One of two things will happen...and because it is Bitcoin ..ie DRAMA QUEEN it will be one extreme or the other...ie BTC knows NO 'middle ground' imho.

So August Bitcoin splits into two or three flavors...it becomes a done deal

1) big ho hum.... everyone does not care...they got btc on all chains/wallets/etc....btc putters along sideways in price for a bit..shrugs it off...rise resumes on all next month....and
again.....folk will scratch their heads and try to figure it out..now that 2 or 3 flavors of BTC....amongst the confusion...and usual cluster on this split topic stuff.

2) big time panic.....no one knows what the frack is happening..even if they say they do....mainly because of all the 2017 newbies...and price dumps to below $1,000.00 again.

So from watching Crypto Universe since 2013....my view, it will be one of the above.

Which one I've no idea....I've been guessing wrong on bitcoin and litecoin prices consistently since 2013...that is the one thing I'm sure of won't change anytime soon.

The only real sure thing up to this point in time...is NO ONE can seem to agree or comprimise on anything related to the issues on the split..thus probably we will have
a fork or two.

Kinda scary, got 100 btc in the hoard....but hey, gonna hold come beanie baby and tulips or moon....(again btc no middle ground etc, etc, etc)

when the split happens ...much drinking/puking and swearing will be involved watching this cluster for 2 weeks or more pan out....yech...

I'd love an agreement before then ...but I give that no chance ..with all the posturing.






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