Bitcoin Holders Must Prepare For Mass Adoption

[w1R903]

If a week ago you had told me I had to choose between:

A: 30 minute news segment on Chinese TV.
B: Several of the biggest tech VC's including Ashton Kutcher and Kevin Rose declaring an interest in bitcoin; plus 2 of the world's most prominent investors name dropping it in their research notes/meetings.

And the most amazing thing: that both of the above happened and the price is still not skyrocketing.  Bitcoin rises from $80 to $250 for no apparent reason, but when Paypal and Western Union start talking about adopting Bitcoin, world-famous VCs rave about it, Bitcoin is featured on China's most popular finance show, and most important of all -- we're clearly on the verge of going mainstream! -- the price does...almost nothing.

Yet Ripple is going gangbusters.  Go figure.

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[notig]

I am both pessimistic and optimistic about it. You can't deny that downloads of the client for instance have increased so there is more general awareness. But the skeptic in me says: The chinese don't make much money so they aren't going to be able to buy much. Maybe? Just because it was on TV doesn't mean the government approves it necessarily but it is still shocking that they didn't ban it outright.

On a positive note though........ imagine if china did not only approve bitcoin but encouraged it's citizens to get hold of it. They could become the wealthiest nation in just a few years. They already do some things that attract wealth inside of their country... they have a lot of production. They keep their gold and other resources instead of exporting them. That means there is real wealth there and not some fake wealth that the dollar might be someday if it stops being the worlds reserve currency.

[Its About Sharing]

One really has to question how BTC got on Chinese national TV for 30 minutes. This is beyond not making sense to the point that it makes total sense. Know what I mean? 

Seriously, this is great news and as another poster said, the VC's speaking out in the last week were also great. Even if an adjustment now is coming, it can be dangerous to trade
it. Maybe holding is better.

[w1R903]

I am both pessimistic and optimistic about it. You can't deny that downloads of the client for instance have increased so there is more general awareness. But the skeptic in me says: The chinese don't make much money so they aren't going to be able to buy much. Maybe?

Are you kidding?  The Chinese middle class numbers over 300 million -- larger than the entire US population.  You know how many Chinese millionaires there are?  Over 1 million!  And all of that is because of their massive production capabilities, and backed up by huge gold and US dollar reserves.

Yeah, there's lots of money in China.

I suspect that the Chinese political class (the nomenclatura, or whatever it is in Chinese) have realized that Bitcoins are a great way to move all that corrupt wealth that they've made from political favors out of the country.

[Stunna]

Would be interesting to see how this plays out, mass exposure sure but we'll have to wait and see if it will reach mass adoption

[qxzn]

I'm still trying to squeeze some time out so that I can do a sub on this. 

Would love to see a sub!

[Zeke_Vermillion]

Very interesting thread. My best guess is that a particular group of Chinese journalists found the topic interesting and did a piece on it, period. I don't view China as a monolith at all -- it's a huge, dynamic mass of people each with his/her own interests and agenda. In some ways, I think that a lot more innovation and dynamism goes on at the small commercial level in China than in the US (not a ground-breaking statement, I realize). But it would be really exciting if the high-level politicos in China have looked at this phenomenon and actually decided that hey, this thing may in fact be in the best strategic interests of China. Think about it, there's a real problem with dependence on USD as the strategic reserve currency of the world, and China is as much trapped by the current system as anyone. Isn't it much better for governments on the short end of this currency stick to promote a decentralized alternative system?

[Ares]

What's interesting is that if the government were the ones behind promoting the airing of the Bitcoin segment, then they must also have some (but not so much that they increase the price too high for the average citizen). If that's the case, then we can expect a lot more Bitcoin promotion in China

[Cyberdyne]

(but not so much that they increase the price too high for the average citizen)

Highly unlikely that could occur any time soon.

The average citizen will be able to afford 0.00000001 for a long time into the future.

[tvbcof]

Very interesting thread. My best guess is that a particular group of Chinese journalists found the topic interesting and did a piece on it, period. I don't view China as a monolith at all -- it's a huge, dynamic mass of people each with his/her own interests and agenda. In some ways, I think that a lot more innovation and dynamism goes on at the small commercial level in China than in the US (not a ground-breaking statement, I realize). But it would be really exciting if the high-level politicos in China have looked at this phenomenon and actually decided that hey, this thing may in fact be in the best strategic interests of China. Think about it, there's a real problem with dependence on USD as the strategic reserve currency of the world, and China is as much trapped by the current system as anyone. Isn't it much better for governments on the short end of this currency stick to promote a decentralized alternative system?

Good points.

An attraction of Bitcoin to me was as an alternative to the USD.  I was/am adverse to holding to many USD for a variety of practical, political, and strategic reasons, and it could be assumed that the same thing may be true for many people at many strata within Chinese society

[gogxmagog]

I've got my holdings in cold storage then wiped my machine clean. I'm not worried about hackers, although, with china entering the picture we will indeed see "the golden age of hacking" as you say, to some degree. what I see as more probable is a flood of very cheaply produced, inexpensive, ASIC mining rigs with "made in china" stamped on the bottom. frankly, the existing ASIC manufacturers are doing such a sloppy job that some real competition will do them good. Go China!

[jubalix]

I think China also see's that crypto's can be used as a strategic soft projection weapon. Pretty hard to employ your armed forced when your USD is worthless

[Malawi]

I think China also see's that crypto's can be used as a strategic soft projection weapon. Pretty hard to employ your armed forced when your USD is worthless

Bitcoin will never replace USD or any other currencies(unless possibly for a small poorly governed country), it may take a little of the value out of it, but not much.
It's more like adding another radio-station, it's not that important for most people, but very important to those who finds a new station they enjoy.

[Cyberdyne]

what I see as more probable is a flood of very cheaply produced, inexpensive, ASIC mining rigs with "made in china" stamped on the bottom. frankly, the existing ASIC manufacturers are doing such a sloppy job that some real competition will do them good. Go China!

It's unclear from your post whether or not you realize all current ASICs are made in China.

[BitcoinAshley]

Bitcoin will never replace USD or any other currencies(unless possibly for a small poorly governed country), it may take a little of the value out of it, but not much.
It's more like adding another radio-station, it's not that important for most people, but very important to those who finds a new station they enjoy.

It is unclear whether or not you also believe that USD and other fiat currencies will last far into the future? It's important to note that fiat currencies are theoretically unsustainable. If one person or institution has the power to print unlimited currency, eventually we reach a point where that institution realizes its almighty power and destroys itself by debasing the currency to a point where people just stop using it. Did you read that book "If you give a mouse a cookie" when you were a kid?

It starts like this:
If you give a mouse a cookie (Give a central bank power to print money)
He's going to want a glass of milk (The central bank will gradually become more and more corrupt and print money as a band-aid to poor fiscal policy, debasing the currency until it inflates to nothingness.)
We're in the middle of that right now. Currently, global monetary policy coordination involves the speed at which various currencies are debased. Right now JPY appears to be taking the lead (in terms of planned printing), much to the chagrin of other Central Banksters. If any one country prints significantly more than the others, it will achieve significant trade advantage in terms of its exports vs. those of other countries. So it's like a "race to the bottom" where each of the central banksters doesn't want to let any one of the others get too much of a lead, but really hopes to get a lead him/herself.

Now, Bitcoin itself may not specifically replace USD when USD(/JPY/GBP/EUR/etc.) fails (because it's not a question of IF.) It may be a combination of precious metals, notes tied to them, Real Bill-type systems, various cryptocurrencies, barter, scrip, local economy, etc. We live in an interesting world and people are very adaptable. There is not one answer to such a complex problem. So I agree that Bitcoin will not replace it solely; I just don't live in the fantasy world where Fiat currencies go on living happily ever after and things like PMs and cryptocoins and Real Bill systems (and localized freeconomies) take a tiny piece of the pie.

Fiat currencies are a failed experiment in economic history 
PMs we can say are a success, because even after modern culture removing most of their utility as currency partly due to the "nix"ing of the gold standard, they still have significant value which has outperformed any and all fiat currencies in existence. Even taking into account storage costs, theft risk, selling 20% below spot, etc - they STILL outperform the dollar in the long term by a long shot.
Digital P2P Cryptocurrencies are still being tested; you are one of the test subjects

[bobdude17]

**FAQ has been added on first page***

The type of organised crime you are talking about will do better making profits elsewhere. Someone can hold a gun to your daughter's head and make you go to the bank and get cash out... they don't need to ask for your bitcoin keys!

and

professional-James-Bond-ninja-operative breed of criminals

..... well, that's where your perspective becomes a bit laughable... You watch too many movies clearly

There is an important difference in the execution of these crimes though. 1) If an attacker had to send to you to the bank for the money while holding a family member, there would be a high probability of the situation turning into a very public hostage case. Not ideal for an attacker. 2) You obviously can't go to the bank and withdraw 60 million dollars. You would be forced to wire it to the attacker, which would require all kinds of authorizations. Very trackable. It would take a huge amount of setup to get away with it. Again, not ideal for an attacker.
A passcode, however well protected, that transfers 60 million dollars of untraceable digital cash without a need to leave the victim's house to carry out the transaction presents an ideal scenario for an attacker. Like really, it doesn't get much better than that.

I used humorous language to make a serious point. Millions of dollars cash held by an individual is enough to attract the likes of professional criminals and trained operatives. Pick your mafia, cartel, mob, agency, military or government. Doesn't matter where they come from, but they are out there.

OP, I think what you're saying is possible. But at this point, simply not probable

Everything about Bitcoin, from its orgins to its markets, have been "not probable". I expect its future to be even more so.

But no need to be scared of intelligent hackers. They already have bitcoins, and even a thief gets lazy after receiving million$ in an honest way.

I think a wave of digital cash hitting the internet will only spawn more hackers. Surely not all of them have Bitcoins, and will not get paid off during a mass adoption transition. More and more will come out the woodworks. Which I understand, because to be honest, the whole idea sounds like a lot of fun. The whole white hat/black hat struggle would get very real again.

[rpietila]

I think a wave of digital cash hitting the internet will only spawn more hackers. Surely not all of them have Bitcoins, and will not get paid off during a mass adoption transition. More and more will come out the woodworks. Which I understand, because to be honest, the whole idea sounds like a lot of fun.

The intelligent people in this world are not so many, 95% of them already know about bitcoins, and a great number of them have bitcoins by now. As the rest or the intelligentsia buys into bitcoins sub-$100k (and they generally have the means to buy a good chunk of them), and price shoots to $millions, they will be awestruck with the developments, quit their work, thief will steal no more, etc.

Gitmo inmates will be set free this year, because the administration have bought bitcoins and do not care to run a prison any more. Any evil c&c structure becomes paralyzed after the 1% in control of it buy bitcoins.

Soon, for evil to have any presence at all in this world, it is required that possessing bitcoins will need to be made punishable by death. (This will be rather arbitrary in case of multisig, but since when has logic been any detriment of evil..  )

And it will not even help. French revolution outlawed the use of gold as a quote currency in 1792. United States outlawed the use of gold as quote currency in 1933. Outlawing bitcoins is exceedingly more difficult, and it is hard to lead an organization of evil, when your staff quit en masse after having bought bitcoins. But they will try

[bobdude17]

Read this:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=196572.0


It's happening.

[bobdude17]

The intelligent people in this world are not so many, 95% of them already know about bitcoins, and a great number of them have bitcoins by now. As the rest or the intelligentsia buys into bitcoins sub-$100k (and they generally have the means to buy a good chunk of them), and price shoots to $millions, they will be awestruck with the developments, quit their work, thief will steal no more, etc.

Sounds pretty hopeful. I'll get back to you about the rest of your post.

[lixiaolai]

You probably do not fully understand China.

CCtv is not trying to give a positive impression, it just doesn't know what to say.

I'm one of the interviewees of that "famous" program, but my interview was cut to only half of one of my sentences, while the interview actually went on more than 20 minutes.

What I saw is a fact that the CCtv journalist knows what is exactly dangerous in the bitcoin properties.