Place your bets: the price of bitcoin after Mt.gox opens

[martin]

Immediate collapse to almost zero, followed by a bubble up to $30 again as buyers get excited.

So, after 2 hours I bet $22.03

[Vandroiy]

6.9 USD

@piuk: Please don't post the average, post the median. The average is completely pointless. A single person claiming "LOL THIRTY QUADRILLION" has more weight than the entire forum posting reasonable numbers if you use average.

[coel]

Funny, on a related note: Currently at bitmarket.eu, the highest EUR bids are all from days ago (some weeks ago) while the lowest asks are all from today and quite a sum away from the highest bids. Edit: Different now already again.

Will be interesting what happens when (if?) TH open their gates again in half an hour.

[piuk]

Average: $14.39
Median: $13.00

janedoe   $ 0.01
MadduckUK   $ 0.50
Enochian   $ 0.90
lardycake   $ 1.00
cbeast   $ 1.82
sammoocow   $ 3.00
tehcodez   $ 3.50
oneforall   $ 4.00
TonyHoyle   $ 4.99
RTJakarta   $ 5.29
nazgulnarsil   $ 6.17
JTaBitCoinKing   $ 6.25
Vandroiy   $ 6.90
IlbiStarz   $ 7.23
rocksalt   $ 8.00
lemonginger   $ 8.55
elelegzet   $ 8.88
bullox   $ 9.40
Digigami   $ 9.77
sebdude420   $ 9.99
saqwe   $ 10.00
SgtSpike   $ 10.06
Bit_Happy   $ 10.15
aop   $ 10.21
Kid81   $ 10.22
foreverD   $ 10.47
an0therlr3   $ 11.00
h2ofusion   $ 11.46
TKE406   $ 11.58
firefox   $ 11.60
nemo   $ 12.10
DamienBlack   $ 12.25
Prze_koles   $ 12.34
jibjabz   $ 13.00
flug   $ 13.25
Havoc   $ 13.32
tulkos   $ 13.33
Isepick   $ 13.37
iya   $ 13.37
Slab Squathrust   $ 13.50
digdugg67   $ 13.56
killer2021   $ 13.69
pokermon919   $ 13.75
RomertL   $ 13.85
3txx   $ 14.00
The Bitburglar   $ 14.32
foo   $ 14.47
zottel   $ 15.00
phatsphere   $ 16.32
natobombs   $ 16.38
£   $ 16.40
trippp   $ 16.92
hex   $ 17.00
BtcNmcMiner   $ 17.01
kwukduck   $ 17.50
skull88   $ 17.50
kjj   $ 17.51
FractalUniverse   $ 18.20
imperi   $ 18.30
joepie91   $ 19.10
Maria   $ 20.00
flyswatta   $ 21.47
martin   $ 22.03
qwk   $ 30.00
opticbit   $ 33.00
Clipse   $ 34.00
TiagoTiago   $ 50.00
bitprotection   $ 114.00
bullox   9001 billion zimbabwe dollars

I reckon when tradehill opens nothing much will happen, mt.gox normally sets the price and there will be too much uncertainty to trade properly without it.

[Crs]

15,7 $

[aeroSpike]

$14.53

[Timo Y]

Immediate collapse to almost zero, followed by a bubble up to $30 again as buyers get excited.

That would be a lottery. I bet that as soon as it reopens the site will be overwhelmed and the majority of orders will end up in the queue for at least 10 minutes before being executed.

The few people who actually manage to buy BTC for almost zero will be the ones who placed the order just in the right microsecond. 

I for one, am going to be clicking the refresh button like mad starting from 3 minutes before opening time.

[Bth8]

$15.60

[wegotpickles]

About 2.33 USD worth of electricity. (depending on your area and hardware)

[bcearl]

$18.33

To make it a bit more interesting $10 via paypal for the nearest guess.

or the equivalent in BTC?

[bcearl]

I reckon when tradehill opens nothing much will happen, mt.gox normally sets the price and there will be too much uncertainty to trade properly without it.

Mt.gox set the price in the past because 95 % of trades were made there. They will have way less customers when coming back.

[FlipPro]

Right where it left off...

[piuk]

Standings:

janedoe   $ 0.01
MadduckUK   $ 0.50
Enochian   $ 0.90
lardycake   $ 1.00
cbeast   $ 1.82
wegotpickles   $ 2.33
sammoocow   $ 3.00
tehcodez   $ 3.50
oneforall   $ 4.00
TonyHoyle   $ 4.99
RTJakarta   $ 5.29
nazgulnarsil   $ 6.17
JTaBitCoinKing   $ 6.25
Vandroiy   $ 6.90
IlbiStarz   $ 7.23
rocksalt   $ 8.00
lemonginger   $ 8.55
elelegzet   $ 8.88
bullox   $ 9.40
Digigami   $ 9.77
sebdude420   $ 9.99
saqwe   $ 10.00
SgtSpike   $ 10.06
Bit_Happy   $ 10.15
aop   $ 10.21
Kid81   $ 10.22
foreverD   $ 10.47
an0therlr3   $ 11.00
h2ofusion   $ 11.46
TKE406   $ 11.58
firefox   $ 11.60
nemo   $ 12.10
DamienBlack   $ 12.25
Prze_koles   $ 12.34
jibjabz   $ 13.00
flug   $ 13.25
Havoc   $ 13.32
tulkos   $ 13.33
Isepick   $ 13.37
iya   $ 13.37
Slab Squathrust   $ 13.50
digdugg67   $ 13.56
killer2021   $ 13.69
pokermon919   $ 13.75
RomertL   $ 13.85
3txx   $ 14.00
The Bitburglar   $ 14.32
foo   $ 14.47
aeroSpike   $ 14.53
zottel   $ 15.00
Bth8   $ 15.60
Crs   $ 15.70
phatsphere   $ 16.32
natobombs   $ 16.38
£   $ 16.40
Peter Lambert   $ 16.45
trippp   $ 16.92
hex   $ 17.00
BtcNmcMiner   $ 17.01
kwukduck   $ 17.50
skull88   $ 17.50
kjj   $ 17.51
FractalUniverse   $ 18.20
imperi   $ 18.30
bcearl   $ 18.33
joepie91   $ 19.10
Maria   $ 20.00
flyswatta   $ 21.47
martin   $ 22.03
qwk   $ 30.00
opticbit   $ 33.00
Clipse   $ 34.00
TiagoTiago   $ 50.00
bitprotection   $ 114.00

Median is $13.32, tradehill is currently at $13.42 . Although i'm going to look into my crystal ball and predict some downward movement until gox is trading.

[Waldschrat]

$ 7.65

[foggyb]

$27.90

[TraderTimm]

My guess, the wild oscillations will be from 9.00 - 17.00, with 20+ seven days later.

[Grouver (BtcBalance)]

$ 15.03

Do not forget Mt.gox got alot of media attention in a positive-ish way since mostly they explained MT.gox & bitcoin are not hacked.

[godofal]

my guess is $13.13
unlucky might be lucky

[tominator]

This is a zero risk, one-way bet (you're offering free money in exchange for me throwing out a number), so I guess I have to post something.

I predict the Mt. Gox trading starts at the roll-back price of around $17.5 BTC and tons of people who have lost faith in BTC over the incident attempt to sell their bitcoins at the new price (which is about $7 higher than bitcoins are currently selling for). The market will quickly self-correct, however, and within 2 hours, my prediction is that the price will be:

$12.72

[£]

Ok, I've thought about this . . .

I am hereby selling my guess of $ 16.40 to the highest bidder, just think this choice piece of numerical real estate can be yours for a few pieces of Bitcoin.

Any reasonable offers accepted.