My Visit To Butterfly Labs Today!

[gramma]

Why are you insistent on BFL giving out ship dates?  They have done that many times in the past and missed every date.  What difference would it make if they gave you a new date?  BFL has obvious problems, but I fail to see how insisting on a ship will help anyone.   

I don't think it's about the date per se.  I think it was about the way they handled the question. I learn as much from that, if not more.

[LostDutchman]

Man, your effort is appreciated, but did you really need to go there? For what?

We all know they are not shipping anytime soon. Jalapeños ordered the very first days will arrive at the end of this year, at best. Singles and Minis ordered at the very beginning may arrive next year. Mini rigs won't arrive at all, they will not exist.

This the reality, and a visit to their facilities is not going to change it.

OK, I am going to answer your questions and reply to your comments in as reasonable, rational and concise manner as possible and bear in mind that this post does indeed contain my considered opinions on the debacle that is BFL.

Concise however does not necessarily mean brief so get ready for a long reply!

Why should I not go to BFL?

They have a location, a business licence and a front door!

I find that often so-called "internet-based" companies actually count on customers not coming to their pysical location, especially in times of cirsis and confusion.  When someone does come, it generally shakes them up whether or not they admit to it, so sometimes showing up unexpectedly will yield diffferent information than the company would give out in an email or phone call.  This however was not the case with BFL.

Based on my personal experience in consumer protection, albeit many years back, had a so-called "real world" company engaged in the kind of business tactics currenttly exercised by BFL, it would have been taken to task long ago.

I suspect waht has heppened with BFL is that it has used its startup money as well as the proceeds from "pre-orders" in R&D and obtaining material for the initial production runs.  I also suspect and this suspicion is to a certain extent verified by BFL in its own updates that the stuff they bought and assembled simply didn't work and they are now left with large piles of high grade computer scrap.

The consequence of this is that all the equipment has been re-designed or is in the process of redesign, there is no completed working equipment and therefore nothing to ship and BFL really has no idea when or for that matter, if anything will ever be shipped but they will not tell you that!  The just keep stalling on shipping dates hoping against hope to be able to get it together before the walls come crashing in.  I also suspect that BFL is now relying on what if anyatahing is left from startup, pre-order funds and whatever comes in from new pre-orders to continue to conduct R&D and purchase the bits to assemble a finished product in time to avoid a meltdown.
I think BFL is more of less (Mostly more!) on the idea that pre-order customers are essentially held hostage against the ideas that requesting refunds or initiating chargebacks will bring the house down and customer's money will be lost and that  no one else out there can make working ASIC equipment available in a timely manner.

I have good reason to beleive that there are at least two companies which are very close to marketing fully functioning ASIC devices and much sooner than BFL's predictions of the availability of its own product.  I have been in close contact with those companies but will not name them because I do no want to appear to be shilling for them.  If and when such equipment becomes readily avialable from either of them, I will let you know as soon as I have reliable information.

In short, I am in discussion with my two partners concerning the plans for our orders but we most certainly will not be placing future orders with BFL.

[LostDutchman]

Why are you insistent on BFL giving out ship dates?  They have done that many times in the past and missed every date.  What difference would it make if they gave you a new date?  BFL has obvious problems, but I fail to see how insisting on a ship will help anyone.   

I don't think it's about the date per se.  I think it was about the way they handled the question. I learn as much from that, if not more.

You got the point for sure!

BFL is handling things with delay and obfuscation!

[LostDutchman]

Not that I like the outcome but thanks for the impartial review nonetheless.

I tried to be as impartial as possible and do the "Dragnet" "Just the facts, Ma'am!" thing!

Glad to know that I succeeded!

[minternj]

So basically you went there to troll them in real life? Lol.

[LostDutchman]

So basically you went there to troll them in real life? Lol.

I wasn't trolling, I was fishing to see what I could catch!

[gramma]

Hopefully, you at least caught some decent BBQ while you were in town!

[Malawi]

So basically you went there to troll them in real life? Lol.

I wasn't trolling, I was fishing to see what I could catch!

That is kinda what trolling means...

Hint - trolling is not coined from a kind of monsters, but from commercial fishing gear.

[LostDutchman]

Hopefully, you at least caught some decent BBQ while you were in town!

Hey, man, I LIVE in KC, less than 4 miles from one of the best!

Wyandotte Barbeque!

There are others witin short driving distance as well!

I ma abut 10 miles from Oklahoma Joe's, 8 frm Arthr Bryant's; the list goes on!  It's a wonder I don't weigh like 300 lbs!

[LostDutchman]

So basically you went there to troll them in real life? Lol.

I wasn't trolling, I was fishing to see what I could catch!

That is kinda what trolling means...

Hint - trolling is not coined from a kind of monsters, but from commercial fishing gear.

I know but I wasn't draggin' no line!   I was trying to toss the hook directly into the fish's mouth!

LOL!

[coincepts]

wasn't being facetious in my OP. I wanted to clarify that I really do appreciate you taking the time to try and get some solid answers for us. Sadly, they played their hand close to the chest and you weren't able to trick them into giving up any really vital information.

Thank you sincerely for trying however.

[LostDutchman]

wasn't being facetious in my OP. I wanted to clarify that I really do appreciate you taking the time to try and get some solid answers for us. Sadly, they played their hand close to the chest and you weren't able to trick them into giving up any really vital information.

Thank you sincerely for trying however.

Hey, thanks!

I sure did try and we are good!

[matthewh3]

Man, your effort is appreciated, but did you really need to go there? For what?

We all know they are not shipping anytime soon. Jalapeños ordered the very first days will arrive at the end of this year, at best. Singles and Minis ordered at the very beginning may arrive next year. Mini rigs won't arrive at all, they will not exist.

This the reality, and a visit to their facilities is not going to change it.

OK, I am going to answer your questions and reply to your comments in as reasonable, rational and concise manner as possible and bear in mind that this post does indeed contain my considered opinions on the debacle that is BFL.

Concise however does not necessarily mean brief so get ready for a long reply!

Why should I not go to BFL?

They have a location, a business licence and a front door!

I find that often so-called "internet-based" companies actually count on customers not coming to their pysical location, especially in times of cirsis and confusion.  When someone does come, it generally shakes them up whether or not they admit to it, so sometimes showing up unexpectedly will yield diffferent information than the company would give out in an email or phone call.  This however was not the case with BFL.

Based on my personal experience in consumer protection, albeit many years back, had a so-called "real world" company engaged in the kind of business tactics currenttly exercised by BFL, it would have been taken to task long ago.

I suspect waht has heppened with BFL is that it has used its startup money as well as the proceeds from "pre-orders" in R&D and obtaining material for the initial production runs.  I also suspect and this suspicion is to a certain extent verified by BFL in its own updates that the stuff they bought and assembled simply didn't work and they are now left with large piles of high grade computer scrap.

The consequence of this is that all the equipment has been re-designed or is in the process of redesign, there is no completed working equipment and therefore nothing to ship and BFL really has no idea when or for that matter, if anything will ever be shipped but they will not tell you that!  The just keep stalling on shipping dates hoping against hope to be able to get it together before the walls come crashing in.  I also suspect that BFL is now relying on what if anyatahing is left from startup, pre-order funds and whatever comes in from new pre-orders to continue to conduct R&D and purchase the bits to assemble a finished product in time to avoid a meltdown.
I think BFL is more of less (Mostly more!) on the idea that pre-order customers are essentially held hostage against the ideas that requesting refunds or initiating chargebacks will bring the house down and customer's money will be lost and that  no one else out there can make working ASIC equipment available in a timely manner.

I have good reason to beleive that there are at least two companies which are very close to marketing fully functioning ASIC devices and much sooner than BFL's predictions of the availability of its own product.  I have been in close contact with those companies but will not name them because I do no want to appear to be shilling for them.  If and when such equipment becomes readily avialable from either of them, I will let you know as soon as I have reliable information.

In short, I am in discussion with my two partners concerning the plans for our orders but we most certainly will not be placing future orders with BFL.

That's the most convincing post I read that makes me think they won't ship 

[tvbcof]

I know but I wasn't draggin' no line!   I was trying to toss the hook directly into the fish's mouth!

LOL!

I'd call this spear-fishing.  And note with pleasure that you got them right in the eye

[solex]

....

In short, I am in discussion with my two partners concerning the plans for our orders but we most certainly will not be placing future orders with BFL.

That's the most convincing post I read that makes me think they won't ship 

So, what do we make of this news?

http://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2013/05/weve-got-a-butterfly-labs-bitcoin-miner-and-its-pretty-darn-fast/

[tvbcof]

...
Concise however does not necessarily mean brief so get ready for a long reply!
...

Here's my current favored hypothesis for anyone who is interested.

BFL was put together in the first place to market a surplus batch of obsolete but high quality FPGA's.  They accomplished this, although with plenty of delays and mis-estimates.  But most people only remember that they had something which was not a complete sham.

As ideas about ASIC started to become more solid, someone got the bright idea that BFL were well situated for a long-con.  They started this scam and it worked better than anyone imagined.  When bASIC horned in on the game it took a little wind out of their sails, but not a lot.  They probably bought off Tom.  I doubt that they 'made him an offer he could not refuse' or anything so dramatic, though they clearly live in an action/adventure fantasy land and encourage their so-called 'customers' to do the same.  (I bet BFL was shocked with it turned out that Avalon was real.)

Eventually BFL had so much money from their scam, and the community had so much confidence in the theoretical possibility of ASIC (complements of the success of real companies in Asia) that they started to buy props (e.g., office space, broken production equipment, etc) and produce even more marketing material.

They also got agreement to conspire with semi-legit members of the community to 'tour' the facilities and produce reports which were good enough to keep the mouth-breathing pre-purchase victims hopeful and not cancelling orders, but nebulous enough to provide the co-conspirator with an out.

This worked even better and they got so fricken much money so they decided to actually try so produce something.  But they had zero to work with having never intended to actually deliver anything so they've been madly scrambling to try to buy some technology off someone who would sell it to them.  They've got to the point where they have managed to acquire a few cast-off experimental chips and a PCB which works for a while before flaming out.  And possibly some mock software which makes things look like they are working.

[LostDutchman]

I know but I wasn't draggin' no line!   I was trying to toss the hook directly into the fish's mouth!

LOL!

I'd call this spear-fishing.  And note with pleasure that you got them right in the eye

Why, thank you!

That was indeed my intent from the start!

It is past time that BFL be called to task!

[LostDutchman]

...
Concise however does not necessarily mean brief so get ready for a long reply!
...

Here's my current favored hypothesis for anyone who is interested.

BFL was put together in the first place to market a surplus batch of obsolete but high quality FPGA's.  They accomplished this, although with plenty of delays and mis-estimates.  But most people only remember that they had something which was not a complete sham.

As ideas about ASIC started to become more solid, someone got the bright idea that BFL were well situated for a long-con.  They started this scam and it worked better than anyone imagined.  When bASIC horned in on the game it took a little wind out of their sails, but not a lot.  They probably bought off Tom.  I doubt that they 'made him an offer he could not refuse' or anything so dramatic, though they clearly live in an action/adventure fantasy land and encourage their so-called 'customers' to do the same.  (I bet BFL was shocked with it turned out that Avalon was real.)

Eventually BFL had so much money from their scam, and the community had so much confidence in the theoretical possibility of ASIC (complements of the success of real companies in Asia) that they started to buy props (e.g., office space, broken production equipment, etc) and produce even more marketing material.

They also got agreement to conspire with semi-legit members of the community to 'tour' the facilities and produce reports which were good enough to keep the mouth-breathing pre-purchase victims hopeful and not cancelling orders, but nebulous enough to provide the co-conspirator with an out.

This worked even better and they got so fricken much money so they decided to actually try so produce something.  But they had zero to work with having never intended to actually deliver anything so they've been madly scrambling to try to buy some technology off someone who would sell it to them.  They've got to the point where they have managed to acquire a few cast-off experimental chips and a PCB which works for a while before flaming out.  And possibly some mock software which makes things look like they are working.

You may well be correct.

It is known that BFL has taken in AT LEAST $4,000,000 (FOUR MILLION USD!) through "pre-orders", "pre-sales" or whatevertheHell you want to call them but the REAL amount is much, much more!

I suspect the true amount may push $7,000,000 (SEVEN MILLION USD!).

You know, I am saddened because I was in the begininng a supporter of BFL; my partners and myself having placed not only virtual but financial trust with them.  My Buddy ordered with our money and I will not state which BFL customer he is but he and the other partner are indeed holding me financially responsible for the failure of BFL to deliver in a timely manner.

That is OK with me; I accepted that responsibility from the start as I am athe guy who talked it up with them.

I can deal with that and I can and will make them their money back in Aces, Kings, Queens and Diamonds!

If we do not get our money back from them, I will go after them and to appropriate a line from a movie, "You tell'em I coming after them and Hell is coming with me!"

I wish things were otherwise but reality is reality and often reality sucks but that is the way it is.

Thank your for reading!

[LostDutchman]

....

In short, I am in discussion with my two partners concerning the plans for our orders but we most certainly will not be placing future orders with BFL.

That's the most convincing post I read that makes me think they won't ship 

So, what do we make of this news?

http://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2013/05/weve-got-a-butterfly-labs-bitcoin-miner-and-its-pretty-darn-fast/

This is the result of a "promo item"; an item sent to a reviewer in order to promote BFL.

The guy is NOT a paid customer.

[BTCLuke]

Disclaimer: I am not a BFL customer, and I too have seen the office in person. It's exactly like the op described.

But I'm not as pessimistic as he is... I think they'll be shipping once they figure out how to tool their assembly line properly.

...
They've got to the point where they have managed to acquire a few cast-off experimental chips and a PCB which works for a while before flaming out.  And possibly some mock software which makes things look like they are working.

Wow, this is a pretty pessimistic view. Do you just have no idea whatsoever about how printing circuitboards works?

Several different press outlets have not only got their hands on these things, and gotten bitcoins in their accounts from using them... But they actually have torn them down to see what makes them tick... The unanimous consensus is that they are indeed mining as advertised. This cannot really be argued anymore.

Think of it this way... This is a Jalapeno's motherboard:



We know this is legit because multiple bloggers who existed long before BFL own these now, tore them apart, and even tell us what the different chips on the board do:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ciwfCqP8AiU

See how the little embedded wires line up on the nanometer scale to get electricity around the silicon pathways in a useful manner? That can only be done by PRINTING... You don't just make a few shotty boards at a time like this, it is way too cost prohibitive.

When you make the printer to make these boards and the ASIC chips themselves, you are spending tons of money, likely millions of dollars, to make a printer that can spit out millions of units.

So since they exist at all, THERE WILL BE more. You can write this fact down, it's a basic law of economics. Even if they refused to make any more, they'd be forced to sell this expensive monster (likely through court-ordered bankruptcy) to some other company that would use it!

The only question now is how competent BFL staff are at running the printing press faster... So far they haven't done a good job, but sooner or later they have got to get their crap together if they want to still own that printing press.