Wall Observer: BTC/USD Price Tracking and Discussion 2.0 (Unmoderated)

[silverfuture]

The rally doesn't have a lot of steam. There is a LOT of uncertainty at this point for most and volumes seem to be lackluster. I think it's highly possible we'll at least test 2000 USD again before resuming up. I could be wrong (duh) but I'm waiting until there are clear signals before going all btc again.

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[JayJuanGee]

The rally doesn't have a lot of steam. There is a LOT of uncertainty at this point for most and volumes seem to be lackluster. I think it's highly possible we'll at least test 2000 USD again before resuming up. I could be wrong (duh) but I'm waiting until there are clear signals before going all btc again.

I take any kind of technical analysis with a grain of salt, but it can be incorporated into considerations.

I remain of the position that the current flat range of BTC prices is quite broad, between about $2,350 and $2,700 - so we need not get too excited, unless we see prices getting close to those upper or lower limits or breaching such.

I understand that TA principles would frame the matter in terms of triangles, narrowing trading ranges and bolinger bands, blah blah blah.. yet at the same time, I don't really consider those frameworks to be adequate in order to describe what seems to be our current broad price range... and right now, as I type we have bouncing between about $2600 and $2640, so we are towards the upper ends of that price range, for whatever that is worth.

If we break upwards, out of the $2350 to $2700 range, then we will likely be next testing $3k resistance.. If we break downwards, out of the range, then $2k seems to be reasonably within the reach of testing of support.. though it could be tough to get below $2150  - without some kind of fuck up in the scaling debate or some thing like that, whether FUD, posturing or some other related matter.

[Bitcoinaire]

We did break out of that triangle nicely, but Aug 1 looms over us.

[savetherainforest]

We did break out of that triangle nicely, but Aug 1 looms over us.

I don't care... I will support both of them!!! ... I will always keep a full node open for the older version just to spite the new initiative!

I'm not sure... but I think I'm against the split. Just because I know being able to update the new version forces the people with older versions to get screwed into accenting what the devs are doing/writing... so... if someone can put pressure, blackmail or make them somehow to write bad code... well then sh!t... everyone will go back to the previous chaotic version!


*edit(0):

broken triangle upwards means bullish AF...doesnt it?

Yes and no...

Yes. Because it is inevitable and any kind of pressure, and even just a small push can make the price go up in the circumstances that the pressure of diminishing returns/coins that flood the market.

No. Because the concept of "communism" needs to be a self or mutual assured agreement between traders that everyone has skin in the game and there is no way but UP! But if small rabits / goats just escape the fence and start pumping without the consensus of the rest of the traders... then that escaped goat need to have a good pull behind his/her back to give the impression that there is some sort of consensus.

[Torque]

I read this and was not shocked in the least:

https://bravenewcoin.com/news/fourth-largest-bitcoin-exchange-bithumb-hacked-for-billions-of-won/

As soon as the Ethereum (delirium?) craze swept through South Korea and Bithumb popped up virtually overnight, commanding something like 45% of the total ETH trading, I distinctly remember my first thought at the time was "Bithumb is brand new... it will no doubt get hacked, likely by an inside job."

And sure enough it did.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

I read this and was not shocked in the least:

https://bravenewcoin.com/news/fourth-largest-bitcoin-exchange-bithumb-hacked-for-billions-of-won/

As soon as the Ethereum (delirium?) craze swept through South Korea and Bithumb popped up virtually overnight, commanding something like 45% of the total ETH trading, I distinctly remember my first thought at the time was "Bithumb is brand new... it will no doubt get hacked, likely by an inside job."

And sure enough it did.

You should take a look-see around r/ethtrader just for kicks. Not only are they falling for all the old scams, they're recycling all the old memes. It's surreal.

[rjclarke2000]

Did they use the 280 road runner one? The one where the cliff gets blasted?

Edit. Gif that is.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

Did they use the 280 road runner one? The one where the cliff gets blasted?

Edit. Gif that is.

I think that was made special just for us. 

[Torque]

You should take a look-see around r/ethtrader just for kicks. Not only are they falling for all the old scams, they're recycling all the old memes. It's surreal.

Yeah I noticed that too. That community also has no idea that the majority of the cheerleading posts, good news posts, comedic posts, and "chin up" posts are posted by nefarious troll traders that are using social engineering tactics to manipulate that community to continue to either a) stay invested: hodl or b) double down on every dip, even if the trend is moving down. They have no idea just how far the price can fall over a longer stretch of time.

I have seen the same scam tactics used in other altcoin reddit pages and alt forums as well. Everyone believes that their special snowflake that they've put money into is truly special and will completely dethrone Bitcoin one day. At least they believe that until the price has finally fallen far enough, over a long enough period of time, that they have to accept the reality that it was all just a shared delusion.

The human brain has an incredible capacity to rationalize an otherwise irrational/illogical position, especially if it has real money behind it, and will consume any bias information that supports that position and reject any other that doesn't. The confirmation bias is strong in Altlandia.

[machasm]

You should take a look-see around r/ethtrader just for kicks. Not only are they falling for all the old scams, they're recycling all the old memes. It's surreal.

Yeah I noticed that too. That community also has no idea that the majority of the cheerleading posts, good news posts, comedic posts, and "chin up" posts are posted by nefarious troll traders that are using social engineering tactics to manipulate that community to continue to either a) stay invested: hodl or b) double down on every dip, even if the trend is moving down. They have no idea just how far the price can fall over a longer stretch of time.

I have seen the same scam tactics used in other altcoin reddit pages and alt forums as well. Everyone believes that their special snowflake that they've put money into is truly special and will completely dethrone Bitcoin one day. At least they believe that until the price has finally fallen far enough, over a long enough period of time, that they have to accept the reality that it was all just a shared delusion.

The human brain has an incredible capacity to rationalize an otherwise irrational/illogical position, especially if it has real money behind it, and will consume any bias information that supports that position and reject any other that doesn't.

Couldn't the same be said of Bitcoin holders though? I am an avid BTC holder myself.

[Torque]

Couldn't the same be said of Bitcoin holders though? I am an avid BTC holder myself.

Yes it could. But Bitcoin is not a mere 2 years old and price moonshot from $0.50 to $400 virtually overnight. It took years and years to build a devoted following of firm believers (holders, users, merchants). Bitcoin also has all of the core fundamental attributes of sound money (eg, not-premined, fair launch, capped, deflationary, POW mining, secure, etc.) that many of the other cryptocurrencies and tokens do not have.

Why anyone would support a cryptocurrency that lacks even some of the fundamental attributes of sound money to begin with is beyond me. That to me is rationalizing something irrational/illogical due to simply a rising price.

Simply having a rising price != sound money, nor does it mean or imply greater adoption in the future. Greater adoption over a longer timeline (decades) requires belief, and belief first requires firm attributes of sound money, which is the platform infrastructure on which belief is built. This forms a 'belief feedback loop' that builds with exponentially more and more people over time.

Gold and Silver went through the same process, the belief started somewhere with just a few people, and then eventually over hundreds and thousands of years formed the "shared hallucination of belief" that all of mankind have today that Gold and Silver are indeed valuable as money.

This will also happen with Bitcoin over time. The other cryptos will fall away into irrelevance or merely viewed as PnD penny stock like crap that no one will have any long term belief in.

[TERA]

Bitcoin has never continued rallying after a down week but if this was anything else I would say it was on its way to $5000

[silverfuture]

Well said Torque. The ones who cannot make those important distinctions in the fundamentals of money will make the difference between winners and losers in the coming years as they have over the last eight. There is a world of difference even though they are under the umbrella of "cryptocurrency".

[bitebits]

Following because of being unmoderated, good choice OP.

[Torque]

There is a world of difference even though they are under the umbrella of "cryptocurrency".

Thanks and yeah, I can't even believe that some of these so-called coins can be spoken of in the same breath as "cryptocurrency", at least as to how Satoshi defined/outlined Bitcoin as such. It was certainly never defined as "buying a token whose sole purpose to exist and have value is to crowdfund a bunch of start up developers to build an app that may go nowhere."

Of course none of these newbs even bother to read the Satoshi whitepaper, nor study their monetary history. So I guess they will reap what they sow.

Especially these ICO scam 'tokens', yeesh. If Satoshi were dead then he is probably rolling over in his grave right now.

[eiskalt]

Bitcoin has never continued rallying after a down week but if this was anything else I would say it was on its way to $5000

My favorite chart indicator is clearly showing green.




Get the Lite to the Moon!!

[deepcolderwallet]

I read this and was not shocked in the least:

https://bravenewcoin.com/news/fourth-largest-bitcoin-exchange-bithumb-hacked-for-billions-of-won/

As soon as the Ethereum (delirium?) craze swept through South Korea and Bithumb popped up virtually overnight, commanding something like 45% of the total ETH trading, I distinctly remember my first thought at the time was "Bithumb is brand new... it will no doubt get hacked, likely by an inside job."

And sure enough it did.

Nice to see you around, Sir.

[savetherainforest]

Never believed in ETH... and never will. I'm sceptical AF!!!

Couldn't the same be said of Bitcoin holders though? I am an avid BTC holder myself.

Yes it could. But Bitcoin is not a mere 2 years old and price moonshot from $0.50 to $400 virtually overnight. It took years and years to build a devoted following of firm believers (holders, users, merchants). Bitcoin also has all of the core fundamental attributes of sound money (eg, not-premined, fair launch, capped, deflationary, POW mining, secure, etc.) that many of the other cryptocurrencies and tokens do not have.

Why anyone would support a cryptocurrency that lacks even some of the fundamental attributes of sound money to begin with is beyond me. That to me is rationalizing something irrational/illogical due to simply a rising price.

Simply having a rising price != sound money, nor does it mean or imply greater adoption in the future. Greater adoption over a longer timeline (decades) requires belief, and belief first requires firm attributes of sound money, which is the platform infrastructure on which belief is built. This forms a 'belief feedback loop' that builds with exponentially more and more people over time.

Gold and Silver went through the same process, the belief started somewhere with just a few people, and then eventually over hundreds and thousands of years formed the "shared hallucination" that all of mankind have today that Gold and Silver are valuable.

This will also happen with Bitcoin over time. The other cryptos will fall away into irrelevance or merely PnD penny stock like crap that no one will have any long term belief in.

Oh... what??... I heard some weird clunky scratchy noises on the floor!!! .. Hmmm... I think the r0ach police is coming to install some distrust in your theory!!! ... Run... the precious metal police is coming!!

[yefi]

I love BTC and have what I believe to be a nice healthy stash. However, to suggest that the property market might crash seems a little bit optimistic to me. I also live in the U.K. And had a property that I sold sometime back and now wish I had held on to it since it value has since tripled from when I sold it. Everyone needs a place to live so I believe that there will always be a demand for property. Only scenario I envisage where property wont be needed is if there is a mass exodus from said country and I just can't see that happening in the U.K. Within the immediate future anyway.
Returns are, for the moment anyway, far better in BTC but the volatility of it makes me quite nervous at times.
Anyway, best of luck whatever you decide and it will be interesting to see how it all pans out.

Demand by itself doesn't mean much if you can't afford something. If there were a credit crunch, prices would drop, as few can afford a house without a mortgage.

Get the Lite to the Moon!!

Gotta say, the chikun is the most interesting thing I've seen for a month.

[Chef Ramsay]

The most bullish thing going right now is litecoin, and it will continue to move up and outpace bitcoin's upward advance. I see bitcoin going into mid to high $4K either later this month or early next. Then correct and do another ATH in September. 5 digits sometime after the New Year. This upcoming RMBcoin out of China will likely come out later next yr or early 2019 and will drive bitcoin to $30K-$60K and beyond as it will need to be purchased w/ bitcoin. Might drive us into 6 figures, just sayin.