Bitfinex - FRAUD, price manipulation, fake transactions

[Quickseller]

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The CBOE et el., are not going to offer 24 hour trading, which puts anyone with an open position while the markets are closed at risk of the market moving against them, potentially to the extent they have negative equity in their accounts while the markets are closed. The circuit breakers will also make the futures market unattractive because traders may not be able to take advantage of some of the large swings in price, and may be unable to exit positions if the market goes a certain way.

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Interesting viewpoint.

However, I´d argue that the circuit breakers will prove to be less relevant than you currently think.
As more (institutional) money flows into Bitcoin the market cap will obviously grow even further, which should result in less
volatility. When BTC was having a market cap in the single-digit billions the swings were more extreme, because
whales could easily move the price.

These days the ecosystem is much more mature and the high market cap makes it more difficult to cause big
price swings. E.g. years ago a 10M $ (worth of BTC) market sell would have easily caused a decline of 20-30 % and nowadays this
would cause a less pronounced market move.

Therefore I think that the circuit breakers at 20 % won´t really be triggered unless a really extreme event happens.

It is not necessarily the circuit breaker in itself being triggered that is the issue, it is the risk of the circuit breaker being triggered.

It is still fairly common for there to be daily 20%+ swings. You could also argue that the institutional money will make the price more stable, however "buy bitcoin" is a very crowded trade currently, so the additional institutional money may simply result in more people buying up bitcoin (being on only one side of the trade).

There also still remains the issue of 24 hour trading (and potentially news) on the spot market. The price tends to move at all hours of the day, even if it is not a 20% swing, it will often be several percentage points.   

[mayax]

Bitfinex and CEX are sharing the same bank account with Bank Spółdzielczy w Skierniewicach  (Cooperative Bank in Skierniewice).

why do they share an account name?    

Because they use the same bank...

It's the SAME BANK ACCOUNT NAME (same company) not only the same bank !    

Cex.io and Bitfinex are using the same bank account .

[Quickseller]

Bitfinex and CEX are sharing the same bank account with Bank Spółdzielczy w Skierniewicach  (Cooperative Bank in Skierniewice).

why do they share an account name?    

Because they use the same bank...

It's the SAME BANK ACCOUNT NAME (same company) not only the same bank !   

Cex.io and Bitfinex are using the same bank account .

You must not be very good at reading. Either that or you are being intentionally dishonest....probably both

[TheQuin]

You must not be very good at reading. Either that or you are being intentionally dishonest....probably both

That is mayax summed up.

Cex.io and Bitfinex are using the same bank account .

Clearly two different bank accounts.

[deisik]

As more (institutional) money flows into Bitcoin the market cap will obviously grow even further, which should result in less
volatility. When BTC was having a market cap in the single-digit billions the swings were more extreme, because
whales could easily move the price

I severely disagree with this point

In fact, the price growth which is inevitable with more money being poured into the system will cause even higher price fluctuations (in relative terms) because the monetary supply (i.e. the number of coins mined to date) remains the same while the market supply should necessarily run dry at higher prices on average. Otherwise the prices just wouldn't rise. As a consequence, the whole market becomes thin, and therefore it turns out to be more susceptible to whales and those who become whales at these prices when they start dumping their stashes

[TheQuin]

I severely disagree with this point

In fact, the price growth which is inevitable with more money being poured into the system will cause even higher price fluctuations (in relative terms) because the monetary supply (i.e. the number of coins mined to date) remains the same while the market supply should necessarily run dry at higher prices on average. Otherwise the prices just wouldn't rise. As a consequence, the whole market becomes thin, and therefore it turns out to be more susceptible to whales and those who become whales at these prices when they start dumping their stashes

I don't understand the logic here. The bids are made up of USD so why would a diminishing Bitcoin supply make the order book thin on the downside?

[deisik]

I severely disagree with this point

In fact, the price growth which is inevitable with more money being poured into the system will cause even higher price fluctuations (in relative terms) because the monetary supply (i.e. the number of coins mined to date) remains the same while the market supply should necessarily run dry at higher prices on average. Otherwise the prices just wouldn't rise. As a consequence, the whole market becomes thin, and therefore it turns out to be more susceptible to whales and those who become whales at these prices when they start dumping their stashes

I don't understand the logic here. The bids are made up of USD so why would a diminishing Bitcoin supply make the order book thin on the downside?

But how can it be otherwise?

You seem to have missed the whole part of my post about the price rise. When the price rises and there is only a limited supply of whatever gets traded (which is the case with Bitcoin), there is no way there can be enough bids just below the balance, which seems to be your point. If there were, the price would just rise even higher due to competition between buyers. It is sort of an equation where you can't just diminish (or increase, for that matter) only one side of it without affecting the other

[TheQuin]

You seem to have missed the whole part of my post about the price rise. When the price rises and there is only a limited supply of whatever gets traded

There are always two things being trading in any market. In this case, it is Bitcoin and the USD. The offers are Bitcoins and the bids are USDs. The offers will indeed likely thin out at higher prices but the only reason the bids will thin out is if buyers no longer want to pay the price. There will be no limited supply of USD.

the price would just rise even higher due to competition between buyers.

That's exactly what will happen as long a demand is higher than supply. USD will be in abundance and Bitcoins will be in short supply.

[deisik]

the price would just rise even higher due to competition between buyers.

That's exactly what will happen as long a demand is higher than supply. USD will be in abundance and Bitcoins will be in short supply.

You still don't get it

With run-away prices, you will always have shortage at both sides, though it is caused by the actual shortage only at one side (remember, it is a balance, an equation of sorts). No matter how high the supply of dollars is, the price will always rise enough to make them scarce at that price and on a way to that price. It is not just a matter of price fall (which seems be the root of your confusion), it is rather a matter of rise first and fall then. That's likely the reason why Tether continues to create their tokens out of thin air. But, as I said, it makes the market susceptible to extreme volatility. Just mark my words, we will see the price crash 50% or more in the future

[TheQuin]

You still don't get it

With run-away prices, you will always have shortage at both sides,

Well, at least now I understand your argument, although I don't agree with it.

though it is caused by the actual shortage only at one side (remember, it is a balance, an equation of sorts). No matter how high is the supply of dollars, the price will always rise enough to make them scarce at that price.

That really doesn't make any sense unless you mean that at high prices willing buyers will be scarce. But that's just price discovery and it doesn't make a crash more likely.

That's likely the reason why Tether continues to create their tokens out of thin air. But, as I said, it makes the market susceptible to extreme volatility.

Now if the Tethers really didn't have the backing and all of a sudden all those USD vanished that would be another matter entirely. I don't believe for one moment for that to be the case, certainly not on the quality of the arguments put forward by the agitators. That brings us back to the start, CBoE and CME will bring in money that isn't in any way under question and will make the market more stable.

Just mark my words, we will see the price crash 50% or more in the future

BTW, one of the first things about trading I was taught by an NYMEX pit trader was if you miss the move always get in at halfway back if it lets you.

[deisik]

You still don't get it

With run-away prices, you will always have shortage at both sides,

Well, at least now I understand your argument, although I don't agree with it.

though it is caused by the actual shortage only at one side (remember, it is a balance, an equation of sorts). No matter how high is the supply of dollars, the price will always rise enough to make them scarce at that price.

That really doesn't make any sense unless you mean that at high prices willing buyers will be scarce. But that's just price discovery and it doesn't make a crash more likely

Okay, let's look at another example

We basically have a sellers market with Bitcoin transactions, i.e. buyers (Bitcoin users in this case) are competing between themselves for the early inclusion of their transaction in the next block. In this way, they are constantly bidding the fee up, right? But does it mean that every transaction with the fee above average gets included if there is a jam (which loosely matches the shortage of bitcoins)? Nope. You have to bid significantly higher to get your transaction included soon. This leaves a very long tail of a relatively small number of transactions with very high fees, and it is the same with prices and orderbook bids. Anyway, if you look at recent Bitcoin corrections, you will see that I'm in fact right, and with rising prices volatility rises even faster, in relative terms as well

Now if the Tethers really didn't have the backing and all of a sudden all those USD vanished that would be another matter entirely. I don't believe for one moment for that to be the case, certainly not on the quality of the arguments put forward by the agitators

Let's just say that I eagerly hope you're right

[TheQuin]

@deisik we could probably carry on this discussion all day and never come to agreement. I would argue that correlation doesn't equal causation. World stock markets are at ATHs and volatility has decreased. It doesn't really matter because anything could happen with Bitcoin. We're in an exciting period of the unknown. My best guess is there will be some violent pullbacks that will offer great entry points to the brave, but this bull has plenty of life left in it.

[deisik]

@deisik we could probably carry on this discussion all day and never come to agreement. I would argue that correlation doesn't equal causation. World stock markets are at ATHs and volatility has decreased. It doesn't really matter because anything could happen with Bitcoin. We're in an exciting period of the unknown. My best guess is there will be some violent pullbacks that will offer great entry points to the brave, but this bull has plenty of life left in it

According to Marx, practice is the criterion of truth

Regarding stock markets, here you miss another thing which I specifically mentioned. Stocks are bought with dollars or whatever, and there is never shortage of fiat currencies. Now imagine there is only one stock in the market, which is what Bitcoin is. With Bitcoin we have only 21M coins (well, somewhat less than that but you get the point). As I said, it is the limited supply of bitcoins which makes Bitcoin market very peculiar and different from other markets. That's the whole idea behind my point. Altcoins simply don't cut it since when Bitcoin surges like these days, altcoins go down. So they can be safely discarded. In other words, it is a monodrama, sort of

[mayax]

Bitfinex and CEX are sharing the same bank account with Bank Spółdzielczy w Skierniewicach  (Cooperative Bank in Skierniewice).

why do they share an account name?    

Because they use the same bank...

It's the SAME BANK ACCOUNT NAME (same company) not only the same bank !    

Cex.io and Bitfinex are using the same bank account .

You must not be very good at reading. Either that or you are being intentionally dishonest....probably both

well, you are either a shill or part of the Bitfinex staff otherwise it's hard to understand why you try to defend a criminal company.

The bank account name is the same. The bank account numbers are different because one is for USD and the other for EURO  

I guess you have  bank accounts and you know very well that, the account numbers are different if you have many currencies  but the account name will be the same.

Cex.io and Bitfinex are using the same bank accounts (EUR and USD) .

[TheQuin]

According to Marx, practice is the criterion of truth

I prefer my Marx quotes from Groucho.

Regarding stock crypto markets, here you miss another thing which I specifically mentioned. Stocks Bitcoins are bought with dollars or whatever, and there is never shortage of fiat currencies.

This is obviously not the case with Bitcoin where we have only 21M coins (well, somewhat less than that but you get the point) stocks as each one has a finite supply.

Bow imagine there is only 1 stock cryptocurrency in the market, which is what Bitcoin is. As I said, it is the limited supply of bitcoins and stocks which makes Bitcoin marker very peculiar and defferen from similar to other markets. That's the whole idea behind my point

There we go. We have a different view on markets as I recall from our earlier discussion.

[TheQuin]

well, you are either a shill or part of the Bitfinex staff otherwise it's hard to understand why you try to defend a criminal company.

The bank account name is the same. The bank account numbers are different because one is for USD and the other for EURO  

Cex.io and Bitfinex are using the same bank accounts (EUR and USD) .

No, they are both outsourcing to the same payment processing company.

Or is this freelance developer part of this great imaginary scam of yours as well?

http://montinglin.com/
http://montinglin.com/wire/

[deisik]

According to Marx, practice is the criterion of truth

I prefer my Marx quotes from Groucho.

Regarding stock crypto markets, here you miss another thing which I specifically mentioned. Stocks Bitcoins are bought with dollars or whatever, and there is never shortage of fiat currencies.

This is obviously not the case with Bitcoin where we have only 21M coins (well, somewhat less than that but you get the point) stocks as each one has a finite supply.

Bow imagine there is only 1 stock cryptocurrency in the market, which is what Bitcoin is. As I said, it is the limited supply of bitcoins and stocks which makes Bitcoin marker very peculiar and defferen from similar to other markets. That's the whole idea behind my point

There we go. We have a different view on markets as I recall from our earlier discussion

I don't like much Marx either

But I have to agree with him on that matter (about practice being the ultimate judge). I see that you are hell-bent on trying to catch me with your stocks vs Bitcoin analogy, but, first, Bitcoin is the king while there are no kings among stocks. And, second, strictly speaking, there is no infinite supply of dollars to the Bitcoin market by any means as opposed to stock markets. This is what Tether likely tries to do, i.e. convert Bitcoin market into a sort of stock market but they will likely fail because they miss the king part. Anyway, we can only wait and see how it plays out eventually

[TheQuin]

But I have to agree with him on that matter (about practice being the ultimate judge). I see that you are hell-bent on trying to catch me with your stocks vs Bitcoin analogy,

I'm really not trying to catch you out but the analogy very much makes my argument.

but, first, Bitcoin is the king while there are no kings among stocks.

There's a handful of kings. It makes no material difference.

And, second, strictly speaking, there is no infinite supply of dollars to the Bitcoin market by any means as opposed to stock markets.

There is no shortage.

This is what Tether likely tries to do, i.e. convert Bitcoin market into a sort of stock market but they will likely fail because they miss the king part. Anyway, we can only wait and see how it plays out eventually

I don't see Tether performs any function beyond the easy transmission of dollar-pegged value without using a bank.

[deisik]

But I have to agree with him on that matter (about practice being the ultimate judge). I see that you are hell-bent on trying to catch me with your stocks vs Bitcoin analogy,

I'm really not trying to catch you out but the analogy very much makes my argument.

but, first, Bitcoin is the king while there are no kings among stocks.

There's a handful of kings. It makes no material difference

Which are these?

But it doesn't actually matter since the stock kings which you are likely to name have never made like 1000% profits within a single year (I mean after they have become the kings, obviously), so your whole point is not viable anyway. I refer to your comparison of stock markets to Bitcoin. Regarding your other points, especially the Tether part, this may well be only our wishful thinking (I'm on your side in this question, just in case). Also, I don't see easy ways to get fiat into the system, so there can be a shortage after all. Which is why Tether, by the way

[TheQuin]

But it doesn't actually matter since the stock kings which you are likely to name have never made like 1000% profits within a single year (I mean after they have become the kings, obviously), so your whole point is not viable anyway. I refer to your comparison of stock markets to Bitcoin.

This is a very different argument, you are basically just saying it has gone up too fast. I would argue that the comparison with stocks here overlooks Metcalfe's law.

Fun chart - Comparison of current increase in BTC value compared to 2013 and 2014 bubbles:



Source article

I just spent ages searching for another chart comparing BTCUSD to previous stock market bubbles using price to Metcalfe value ratio but I cannot find it now. It also shows this is in early phase even before you consider the heard are only just starting to arrive.

Fun fact: There are estimated to be less than 5 million people in the world with a crypto wallet at the moment out of a world population of over 7 billion. This thing has miles to run.

Regarding your other points, especially the Tether part, this may well be only our wishful thinking (I'm on your side in this question, just in case). Also, I don't see easy ways to get fiat into the system, so there can be a shortage after all. Which is why Tether, by the way

Tether is a very small part of the story and the vast majority of fiat comes via other channels.