Diff contest Aug 9 to Aug?.Prize a black sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are closed.

[philipma1957]

I am changing prize to 1 black factory sealed trezor.

This trezor is provided by trezor  they made an error on my order sent me too many black ones and not  enough white ones.

This generously fixed the order by send me whites ones on their dime.

I told them I would do the next promo  and give away a black one.

While mentioning their generosity in fixing an error.

I also must mention  when btc added bcc trezor did a good job of allowing access to the bcc.

New contest picks  to start at block 1116.

Experimental Image Contribution:



Let's see how this holds up over time.
If it works well enough, feel free to quote it Phil.

rules to follow

old thread link

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2057465.0

[1714918748]

1714918748

[1714918748]

1714918748

[1714918748]

1714918748

[VRobb]

Cool!  Can win a black Renault Trezor!  Those are crazy!!

Wait, do I have that wrong...?    

You're the coolest, phil, and have the coolest threads!

[vapourminer]

definitely a nice prize for the winner. not that your other prizes were not good as well.

i would love to have a black trezor to go with my white one.. course the odds of me winning are about.. hmmm. zillion to one is the figure that comes to mind

thank you Phil for the contest! always fun to figure out what number to choose. lately i have been using the average of cat toys my two cats destroy during the contest. they have been mellow lately.. summer heat no doubt.

[philipma1957]

Cool!  Can win a black Renault Trezor!  Those are crazy!!

Wait, do I have that wrong...?    

You're the coolest, phil, and have the coolest threads!

HMMMM

this Trezor

not the other one

and Trezor was good enough to send me a white one free of charge due to an error on their part.  Not many crypto coin companies are that good for service.

[isoneguy]

isoneguy = 3.0 <- getting ahead of myself

curious what became of the previous prizes

thanks phil!

[philipma1957]

isoneguy = 3.0 <- getting ahead of myself

curious what became of the previous prizes

thanks phil!

they are on hold and will be given after this prize.

I had promised trezor I would do a promo for them the next round. Once they were nice enough to send the white one out to me.

I will run the contest until I give away the Trezor  then the 2LTC + 1 compac stick.

Would love to see more players so I can give away the prizes.

[isoneguy]

Let me see what I can drum up for you.

Also do you know what's going on...did I rock the boat too hard?

OGnasty just went after minerjones...

[Tomintx]

This is not yet a guess, just fun with numbers.

If Difficulty were to go up (just) 8.32% this go-round, we'd be at difficulty of 1E12.  I recall late summer 2013, when no one believed that difficulty would hit a Billion by the end of the year.  (It did, block 276192, on 12/21/13)

I've been sharpening my dart this week.  This is a more difficult prediction than I thought.  Thanks for funding the contest!

[philipma1957]

This is not yet a guess, just fun with numbers.

If Difficulty were to go up (just) 8.32% this go-round, we'd be at difficulty of 1E12.  I recall late summer 2013, when no one believed that difficulty would hit a Billion by the end of the year.  (It did, block 276192, on 12/21/13)

I've been sharpening my dart this week.  This is a more difficult prediction than I thought.  Thanks for funding the contest!

New contest picks  to start at block 1116.

Experimental Image Contribution:



Let's see how this holds up over time.
If it works well enough, feel free to quote it Phil.

Difficulty History

Date.......................Difficulty............Change......Hash Rate

Jul 27 2017   860,221,984,436   6.92%   6,157,708,817 GH/s

 Jul 14 2017   804,525,194,568   13.53%   5,759,015,666 GH/s
Jul 02 2017   708,659,466,230   -0.43%   5,072,782,052 GH/s
Jun 17 2017   711,697,198,174.......   4.85% ....  5,094,526,985 GH/s
May 23 2017   595,921,917,085   6.42%   4,265,775,241 GH/s
May 10 2017   559,970,892,891   7.28%   4,008,427,786 GH/s
Apr 27 2017   521,974,519,554   0.22%   3,736,439,151 GH/s
Apr 13 2017   520,808,749,422   4.24%   3,728,094,244 GH/s
Mar 30 2017   499,635,929,817   5.03%   3,576,533,297 GH/s
Mar 17 2017   475,705,205,062   3.24%   3,405,230,497 GH/s
Mar 03 2017   460,769,358,091   4.54%   3,298,315,540 GH/s
Feb 18 2017   440,779,902,287   4.41%   3,155,225,442 GH/s
Feb 04 2017   422,170,566,884   7.43%   3,022,014,630 GH/s
Jan 22 2017   392,963,262,344   16.64%   2,812,940,600 GH/s
Jan 10 2017   336,899,932,796   6.05%   2,411,623,656 GH/s



If you are overseas  I will spring for the shipping of the Trezor

Rules



https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1484047.msg14964950#msg14964950

 I am checking this list of rules from older thread

1)you must have been on this site since April 1st 2017  you must have at least 30 posts. --

2)I will check you out if you are new and decide if you can play.
3)you get one play per adjustment. which must be yours alone, in proper format and can not be changed.
4)Do not pick someone else's number If you do I will assign a number and that will not be changed
5) picks start at:

Bitcoin Difficulty:  
Estimated Next Difficulty:  
 
Adjust time:                 Block    1116  
  
Hashrate(?):  
Block Generation Time(?):  
1 block:
3 blocks:
6 blocks:
Updated:  




6) picks end at

Bitcoin Difficulty:  
Estimated Next Difficulty:
  
Adjust time:      516

Hashrate(?):  
Block Generation Time(?):  
1 block:
3 blocks:
6 blocks:
Updated:  



7)  since this is a free contest I make all decisions if there are any issues or problems.


8 ) note the change  picks start later and end late in the hope of helping a person to pick a winner.

9) format is below and this is the  contest picks from 2016 in code

as low as you want

-1.0
-0.9
-0.8
-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
+0.1
+0.2
+0.3
+0.4
+0.5
+0.6
+0.7
+0.8
+0.9
+1.0

to as high as you want

Code:

-1.2 = philipma1957  >>>>  I always pick this number


-0.5 = Erumara        
  0.0 = adaseb
+0.7 = adib
+0.8 = ingiltere
+0.9 = usenet
+1.0 = NeuroticFish
+1.4 = ahmedjamal1998 
+1.5 = lolxxxx
+1.7 = ezeminer
+2.2 = Valkir
+2.3 = fr4nkthetank
+2.7 = blindminer
+3.0 = topiOleg
+3.1 = tlhIlwI
+3.2 = Psi
+3.3 = HagssFIN     
+3.4 = HerbPean
+3.5 = Veves1
+3.6 = Cuidler

+3.7  ! Thank you!    @ Roadstress  Pleaz try to do it right >    +3.7 = Roadstress

+3.9 = flikflak
+4.0 = pusttiu
+4.1 = Amph
+4.2 = VirosaGITS
+4.5 = redhack
+4.6 = talks_cheep
+4.7 = Ankara
+4.8  = indiemax
+4.9 = ATguy
+5.0 = alh
+5.1 = FruitsBasket
+5.2 = VRobb
+5.3 = Dexter770221
+5.4 = gnaoui
+5.5 = vapourminer

+5.6 = mavericklm     I changed your pick to   +5.6 as vapourminer had +5.5

+5.7 = wlefever
+5.8 = Notlist3d
+5.9 = Chris!
+6.5 = wpt1wpt1
+6.6 = edonkey
+6.7 = zebedee
+6.8 = AM4Bitcoin
+6.9% = Mikestang
+7.6 = RichBC

Code:

Difficulty History

Date _______Difficulty_____________ Change___   Hash Rate



Jun 17 2017   711,697,198,174  .......... 4.85%.....   5,094,526,985 GH/s



May 24 2016   199,312,067,531   2.60%   1,426,731,353 GH/s
May 11 2016   194,254,820,283   8.73%   1,390,530,167 GH/s
Apr 28 2016   178,659,257,773   -0.01%   1,278,892,782 GH/s
Apr 14 2016   178,678,307,672   7.09%   1,279,029,147 GH/s
Apr 01 2016   166,851,513,283   0.82%   1,194,369,655 GH/s
Mar 18 2016   165,496,835,118   4.46%   1,184,672,491 GH/s
Mar 04 2016   158,427,203,767   -3.10%   1,134,066,098 GH/s
Feb 19 2016   163,491,654,909   13.44%   1,170,318,852 GH/s
Feb 07 2016   144,116,447,847   20.06%   1,031,625,717 GH/s
Jan 26 2016   120,033,340,651   5.89%   859,232,121 GH/s
Jan 13 2016   113,354,299,801   9.12%   811,421,684 GH/s
Dec 31 2015   103,880,340,815   11.16%   743,604,444 GH/s
Dec 18 2015   93,448,670,796           18.14%   668,931,642 GH/s
Dec 06 2015   79,102,380,900           8.77%   566,236,898 GH/s
Nov 24 2015   72,722,780,643          10.44%   520,569,941 GH/s
Nov 11 2015   65,848,255,180   5.77%   471,360,171 GH/s
Oct 29 2015   62,253,982,450   2.25%   445,631,364 GH/s
Oct 15 2015   60,883,825,480   0.12%   435,823,399 GH/s
Oct 01 2015   60,813,224,039   2.49%   435,318,014 GH/s
Sep 17 2015   59,335,351,234   4.17%   424,738,988 GH/s
Sep 04 2015   56,957,648,455   4.98%   407,718,729 GH/s
Aug 22 2015   54,256,630,328   2.95%   388,384,088 GH/s
Aug 08 2015   52,699,842,409   0.81%   377,240,166 GH/s
Jul 25 2015   52,278,304,846   2.35%   374,222,683 GH/s
Jul 11 2015   51,076,366,303   3.39%   365,618,871 GH/s
Jun 28 2015   49,402,014,931   -0.58%   353,633,397 GH/s
Jun 14 2015   49,692,386,355   4.42%   355,711,957 GH/s
May 31 2015   47,589,591,154   -2.50%   340,659,563 GH/s
May 17 2015   48,807,487,245   2.44%   349,377,603 GH/s
May 03 2015   47,643,398,018   0.07%   341,044,727 GH/s
Apr 19 2015   47,610,564,513   -3.71%   340,809,696 GH/s
Apr 05 2015   49,446,390,688   5.84%   353,951,052 GH/s
Mar 22 2015   46,717,549,645   -1.50%   334,417,246 GH/s
Mar 08 2015   47,427,554,951   1.59%   339,499,662 GH/s
Feb 22 2015   46,684,376,317   5.01%   334,179,783 GH/s
Feb 09 2015   44,455,415,962   7.71%   318,224,263 GH/s
Jan 27 2015   41,272,873,895   -6.14%   295,442,739 GH/s
Jan 12 2015   43,971,662,056   8.20%   314,761,417 GH/s
Dec 30 2014   40,640,955,017   3.00%   290,919,288 GH/s
Dec 17 2014   39,457,671,307   -1.37%   282,449,013 GH/s
Dec 02 2014   40,007,470,271   -0.73%   286,384,627 GH/s
Nov 18 2014   40,300,030,328   1.76%   288,478,854 GH/s
Nov 05 2014   39,603,666,252   10.05%   283,494,086 GH/s
Oct 23 2014   35,985,640,265   2.81%   257,595,247 GH/s
Oct 09 2014   35,002,482,026   0.98%   250,557,526 GH/s
Sep 25 2014   34,661,425,924   16.20%   248,116,151 GH/s
Sep 13 2014   29,829,733,124   8.75%   213,529,547 GH/s
Aug 31 2014   27,428,630,902   15.03%   196,341,788 GH/s
Aug 19 2014   23,844,670,039   20.86%   170,686,797 GH/s
Aug 08 2014   19,729,645,941   5.30%   141,230,307 GH/s
© 2013-2014 BitcoinWisdom.com

10) Finally If I missed anything  I will be the sole  decider as to what is fair.

Experimental Image Contribution:



Let's see how this holds up over time.
If it works well enough, feel free to quote it Phil.

And look at the diff drop

[TheYankeesWin!]

We are negative I guess BCC is bleeding hash from BTC

[philipma1957]

we are dropping from 923xxxxx to 908xxxx

that is about -2%

but 1613 blocks left

985 ph on BCC

1 ph = 77 s-9  x 985 = 75845 s-9's mining BCC

[philipma1957]

New contest picks  to start at block 1116.

Experimental Image Contribution:



Let's see how this holds up over time.
If it works well enough, feel free to quote it Phil.

If you are overseas  I will spring for the shipping of the Trezor

-1.2 = philipma1957  >>>>  I always pick this number

Experimental Image Contribution:



Let's see how this holds up over time.
If it works well enough, feel free to quote it Phil.

We Start at 1116


And look at the diff drop the gray line has always been under so we are pretty much negative at the moment

[philipma1957]

New contest picks  to end at block 516.

Experimental Image Contribution:



Let's see how this holds up over time.
If it works well enough, feel free to quote it Phil.

If you are overseas  I will spring for the shipping of the Trezor

-1.2 = philipma1957  >>>>  I always pick this number








And look at the diff drop the gray line has always been under so we are pretty much negative at the moment

[vapourminer]

2.2=vapourminer

thanks phil!

[keystroke]

-0.2=keystroke

Thank you!

[philipma1957]

New contest picks  to end at block 516.

Experimental Image Contribution:



Let's see how this holds up over time.
If it works well enough, feel free to quote it Phil.

If you are overseas  I will spring for the shipping of the Trezor

-1.2 = philipma1957  >>>>  I always pick this number

-0.2 = keystroke

2.2 = vapourminer




And look at the diff drop the gray line has always been under so we are pretty much negative at the moment

[alh]

While I have participated in these before, I have lost my sense of how the range works when we are into negative territory. If as an example, what would I choose for the following:

Estimated Next Difficulty:    922,529,973,147 (-0.08%)

Would that be -.1% -or- 0.0% ?

I'll wait a bit to make a guess, but thought I would ask now, since it seems possible to me will be in for decrease in diffiulty.

Thanks for doing this again!!!

[mocacinno]

0.2 = mocacinno

it's great that you started holding your diff contests again... I used to participate in them back in the days, and i always found it very enjoyable to follow the discussion
thanks!

[isoneguy]

isoneguy -3.0

Phil, if you aren't careful you might win this one.

[philipma1957]

New contest picks  to end at block 516.

Experimental Image Contribution:



Let's see how this holds up over time.
If it works well enough, feel free to quote it Phil.

If you are overseas  I will spring for the shipping of the Trezor
-3.0 = isoneguy
-1.2 = philipma1957  >>>>  I always pick this number

-0.2 = keystroke
0.2 = mocacinno
2.2 = vapourminer




And look at the diff drop the gray line has always been under so we are pretty much negative at the moment

While I have participated in these before, I have lost my sense of how the range works when we are into negative territory. If as an example, what would I choose for the following:

Estimated Next Difficulty:    922,529,973,147 (-0.08%)

Would that be -.1% -or- 0.0% ?

I'll wait a bit to make a guess, but thought I would ask now, since it seems possible to me will be in for decrease in diffiulty.

Thanks for doing this again!!!

-0.1    covers  from -0.1 to  -0.000000000000000001....
0.0     covers  from  0.0 to    0.099999999999999999...
0.1    covers   from  0.1 to    0.199999999999999999...


so -0.08   would be won by  -0.1  not 0.0