Diff contest Aug 9 to Aug?.Prize a black sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are closed.

[TheYankeesWin!]

We can do a manual  figure .

2016
1757

259 blocks New York Yankee time is 12:15 Pm

[philipma1957]

Yeah and on Aug 24th 1:58 am  we were at block 2016

So 24 + 24 + 10 = 58 hours

so 257/58 = 4.43 blocks an hour  vs 6

or 73.8%  that means  -26.2%

I need to check  the time span better


block 482093 was at  2017  8 - 26 - 16:04

block 481834 was at  2017  8 - 24  - 04:49

that is 24 + 24 + 11 = 59.25 not 58  as I guessed at above

so 257/59.25 = 4.337 blocks an hour vs  6

which is  72.29%

or a 27.71% drop


freaking  amazing!

now we are only 257 blocks in.

and the hash is on BCC/BCH  it can flip back here at any time.

So  the 27.71%  drop can  move up fast.



I could be off just a bit as  I think  the new diff started at block  481834  if someone knows this to be wrong or true  please let me know.

[Last of the V8s]

https://data.bitcoinity.org/bitcoin/difficulty/5y?t=l
dunno if accurate

[philipma1957]

I am having trouble with exact  block the new diff started at.

https://bitcoincharts.com/

this claims  block 481824  was first block of new diff

Blocks   481823
Total BTC   16.523M
 
Difficulty   923233068449
Estimated   887736944047 in 1 blks
 
Network total   7983858.406 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   7.25 / 497 s


if true

482085 (Main Chain)   2017-08-26 16:27:59
481824 (Main Chain)   2017-08-24 01:57:37

261 blocks made in    24 + 24 + 14.5 hours


261/60.5 = 4.314 blocks an hour vs 6

4.314/6

71.9 %

or a 28.1% drop  at the 261 block number

so  we know the hash is at bcc/bch   and can shift back

but a 28.1% drop in diff  and price of coin over 4100 usd for btc would be a nice gain for miners

[leowonderful]

This will be one spectacular drop if it's even more than 20%. Never thought I'd see the day this happens, difficulty will probably keep increasing as it was once BCH profitability lowers and if EDA is modified but 2X could be yet another alt causing difficulty drops. Don't know about you guys, but if this format continues difficulty contests will be like finding a nail in an even larger haystack than before.

[philipma1957]

This will be one spectacular drop if it's even more than 20%. Never thought I'd see the day this happens, difficulty will probably keep increasing as it was once BCH profitability lowers and if EDA is modified but 2X could be yet another alt causing difficulty drops. Don't know about you guys, but if this format continues difficulty contests will be like finding a nail in an even larger haystack than before.

I think I will suspend it this time.

I have a trezor and  then 1ltc+a compac for two prizes.

But the work needed to keep track  would be a lot.

viabtc.com claims  



Network HashRate  7271 P for btc

Network HashRate  615 P  for bcc/bch

 The math comes to


482293 (Main Chain)   2017-08-28 01:52:08
481824 (Main Chain)   2017-08-24 01:57:37


so              469 blocks in 96 hours

should be  576 blocks in 96 hours

469/576  =  81.4%  which is a 18.6% drop  so a big shift  back to btc.

but  so far we know the shift can happen  tomorrow and bcc could be at 3700p  with btc at 4400p  ..  I will do a suspension of the contest for one adjustment as I want bitcoinwisdom to work again to help with picking

[fr4nkthetank]

ok, thanks for the effort.  With the number of people participating, I suppose you could also make the picks x10, I mean instead of 1.1% to 1.2%, its 1% to 2%, so one full % per pick ?

[philipma1957]

ok, thanks for the effort.  With the number of people participating, I suppose you could also make the picks x10, I mean instead of 1.1% to 1.2%, its 1% to 2%, so one full % per pick ?

we used to do .25  and we got too popular so we went to .1

I think I will revamp and go to .2  but without bitcoinwisdom   contest gets hard to present.

Maybe the owner will ramp it back up  next jump.

[vapourminer]

definitely makes the contest different.

before you could try to find trends and pick based on that.

before towards the end of a contest you could see who was closest and those folks could pick up a bit of excitement. now in one day a wild swing could end up with a pick at the other end of the range winning.

now its like throwing darts at a dart board.

[philipma1957]

definitely makes the contest different.

before you could try to find trends and pick based on that.

before towards the end of a contest you could see who was closest and those folks could pick up a bit of excitement. now in one day a wild swing could end up with a pick at the other end of the range winning.

now its like throwing darts at a dart board.

yeah  it got a lot different

[edonkey]

There's some interesting analysis floating around regarding the effect EDA (Emergency Difficulty Adjustment) will have on BCH ongoing. The ability of miners to periodically accelerate block creation will result in premature reward halving.

If things stay as is, there will be two BCH halvings by early 2019 (compared to one for Bitcoin in 2020). That means the BCH block reward could fall to 3.125 in a little over a year.

While the miners force cycle the difficulty, BCH goes through periods of extremely slow blocks followed by periods of ridiculously fast blocks. How can there be any economic support for a blockchain that goes through regular drought cycles where transactions take hours to confirm?

So if BCH has a dramatic reduction of block rewards and there's no significant increase in fees due to lack of economic support, the coin is basically dead. Miners will cycle it into oblivion until there's no value left to extract.

In the meantime those large blocks go largely empty, with the only transactions used to transfer BCH from the miners to the bag holders who have been conned into believing in this failed experiment.

I can't imagine that the BCH devs can leave things as-is. They're probably going to have to remove EDA. Assuming Bitmain allows it

[philipma1957]

There's some interesting analysis floating around regarding the effect EDA (Emergency Difficulty Adjustment) will have on BCH ongoing. The ability of miners to periodically accelerate block creation will result in premature reward halving.

If things stay as is, there will be two BCH halvings by early 2019 (compared to one for Bitcoin in 2020). That means the BCH block reward could fall to 3.125 in a little over a year.

While the miners force cycle the difficulty, BCH goes through periods of extremely slow blocks followed by periods of ridiculously fast blocks. How can there be any economic support for a blockchain that goes through regular drought cycles where transactions take hours to confirm?

So if BCH has a dramatic reduction of block rewards and there's no significant increase in fees due to lack of economic support, the coin is basically dead. Miners will cycle it into oblivion until there's no value left to extract.

In the meantime those large blocks go largely empty, with the only transactions used to transfer BCH from the miners to the bag holders who have been conned into believing in this failed experiment.

I can't imagine that the BCH devs can leave things as-is. They're probably going to have to remove EDA. Assuming Bitmain allows it

And on the other end  by dropping btc  as low as 4200p  vs 6600p for 2 to 3 days each jump.

  btc diff  could be flat or neg for the next 5 or 6 jumps.

if coin stays at 4000 plus  and diff  does -2 %  6 jumps in a row it is a big windfall for btc miners.

not sure what is going to happen  to btc's price  if  it is manipulated  this way for the next 5 to 6 jumps.

This would be a fun  diff game if I had a good  tracker service.

I will suspend the game this jump.

these are active trackers:

https://data.bitcoinity.org/bitcoin/difficulty/5y?t=l

http://bitcointicker.co/networkstats/

https://pool.viabtc.com/


these seem dead:

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

https://bitcoincharts.com/

and manual  can be done via

https://blockchain.info/


block 482365  8-28-2017 15:20:29  = current
block 481824  8-24-2017 01:57:37 =  start

so 541 blocks in 4 days and 14 hours  is about 110 hours x 6 = 660

541   vs 660 = 81.9 %  or a 18.1 % drop    which can  move  with ease  by the hash shifting   from btc to bcc

[TheYankeesWin!]

The viabtc.com site reads

Network HashRate    6069 P  BTC

Network HashRate    1198 P  BCC-BCH

[philipma1957]

The viabtc.com site reads

Network HashRate    6069 P  BTC

Network HashRate    1198 P  BCC-BCH

Yeah  the p  hash  moved a ton  in about 4-5 hours

from 6514 to 6069

from 599 to 1198

[buwaytress]

This really took me by surprise - I'm pretty sure even BCC/H did not foresee this kind of wild swing. If ever we were in doubt that miners (pools) could have this much control, this evidence should be quite definitive. This must force BCH devs into intervening sooner or later. Also, I wonder how long more price can hold if this pattern continues, though? There's got to be some nett effect of simple profit-taking on the market, at least for the medium term.

And all this coming up to November, too. Just goes to show how much/little I really can predict about the network! Sorry to see the game suspended, although I don't necessarily think it being more difficult is a bad thing. Maybe some of us like finding that needle in the haystack

[philipma1957]

I need to be able to track it easy.  I am hoping that bitcoin wisdom will resume charts

This really took me by surprise - I'm pretty sure even BCC/H did not foresee this kind of wild swing. If ever we were in doubt that miners (pools) could have this much control, this evidence should be quite definitive. This must force BCH devs into intervening sooner or later. Also, I wonder how long more price can hold if this pattern continues, though? There's got to be some nett effect of simple profit-taking on the market, at least for the medium term.

And all this coming up to November, too. Just goes to show how much/little I really can predict about the network! Sorry to see the game suspended, although I don't necessarily think it being more difficult is a bad thing. Maybe some of us like finding that needle in the haystack

[TheYankeesWin!]

So the manual numbers are the only accurate way?


Block Height   Time   Relayed By   
 482667--------    2017-08-30-- 15:47:29 = now
 481824--------- 2017-08-24-- 01:57:37 =  start



843 in   6 days and 14 hours.


948  would be  0% for 6 days and 14 hours.

[philipma1957]

So the manual numbers are the only accurate way?


Block Height   Time   Relayed By   
 482667--------    2017-08-30-- 15:47:29 = now
 481824--------- 2017-08-24-- 01:57:37 =  start



843 in   6 days and 14 hours.


948  would be  0% for 6 days and 14 hours.

yeah  and you then do 843/948 = 88.9%    or an 11.1% drop

but lots of blocks left

and https://pool.viabtc.com/

has btc at  Network HashRate  7812 P

and BCC at Network HashRate    684 P

these numbers  reflect a big jump for  btc   since  6600 p = 0%   so if we stay at these numbers

the 11.1%  current drop would be close to 0%

mind you this is really good of you are mining.  a 0% diff  and a 4600 usd price is really nice.

But tracking is hard as I would need to do manual 2 or 3 times a day. Not sure I want that work.

I am still hoping to see bitcoinwisdom with a current number. I could start contest back up and not have to keep up records.

[Last of the V8s]

another possible

http://fork.lol/pow/retarget

[edonkey]

another possible

http://fork.lol/pow/retarget

Yup. This is going to keep happening, like the regular ringing of a dinner bell, until the BCH devs change the algorithm or it's not worth it anymore.