$1,000,000 for a Bitcoin?

[David Rabahy]

Human beings tend to be just terrible at predicting things like this.  The first step is to admit we really do not know then we can start guessing realizing they are just guesses.

I've written an expression down that represents a number between 0 and 1,000,000.  If you can guess it then I'll give you a prize.  I'll give you a hint; it isn't an integer.  Anyone that thinks they can predict the number is fooling themselves but it can be fun guessing and rationalizing the guess.  Also, note the prize is variable; if the exchange rate between today's Bitcoin and today's US dollar goes to $0 then you can have all of my Bitcoins leftover at the moment it dies.  If the rate does top $1,000,000 then the prize will be 1 BTC.

Your challenge is not applicable: market is governed by society, society is composed by humans, and human behavior is far from random.
In fact, it is quite predictable if you have the accurate variables and models.

Using your example: It is not about arbitrarily setting a number, but having a set of obscure and complex rules for the generation of this number between 0 and a million. If you give me enough time with this black box I will be able to approximate very closely and predict the next numbers.
Maybe not exact, but good enough.

That's how social sciences work, and the black box is our human mind.
We have enough empirical information about human behavior to estimate a possible outcome under certain variables.

Alright, but, it isn't just one human mind; it is billions of them.  In my experience human minds work differently enough that sometimes in a few words I can convey a concept and inspire rapid action vs. a strong negative reaction to the same concepts to the point of risking relationship or even life and limb.

So, I will give another hint; the most significant digit (MSD) is 9 narrowing the field down by a factor of 9 (the MSD couldn't have been 0).  There; all human minds operate similarly enough because they are constrained to the physics of the brain http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_brain.  My expression is very very far from random http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistical_randomness; it is in fact stunningly ordered as compared to something truly random.  No one has written a computer program attempting to predict the exchange rate, right?

Make no mistake; no one here is remotely close to estimating any possible outcome at all based on any variables.  We are strictly guessing for the fun of it.  Anyone that thinks they are predicting anything in this space is categorically delusional but that can be a delightful source of fun too.

Heck, the environment alone can wreck havoc with any and all predictions.  When the comet strikes and takes out the planet, unless we've escaped to safety elsewhere, the exchange rate won't matter.  If so then I will declare a push and not payout.

[Elwar]

I predict Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 by 2020.

[Le Happy Merchant]

thats a market cap of 22,000,000,000,000 21,000,000,000,000... that's exactly how much obama has spent during his term.

Interesting! That's nearly 30% of the global M3 money supply!

(sarcastic way of saying "think before you speak")

The thing about money spent, is that it goes somewhere and keeps moving.

The total spending could equal 21 trillion, but its not like he ever held 21 trillion at one time.

[DoomDumas]

I guess..

next bubble price : 2500

gold parity before 2015 !

[Theraty]

At the current rate, that would mean 11.18 million million usd. It just seems a little too big to believe. I hope I'm wrong.

[ThatDGuy]

At the current rate, that would mean 11.18 million million usd. It just seems a little too big to believe. I hope I'm wrong.

My logical side agrees with you, but then I look back at Bitcoin's growth so far.  I think early on $6 would have been a little too big to believe, and similarly with $30, and $266.

I'm not saying that $1M is around any of the next few corners, but if Bitcoin were to somehow survive 10-20 years without another cryptocurrency taking it's place at the top - combined with inflation of fiat - it's a conceivable number.

[bitsalame]

Human beings tend to be just terrible at predicting things like this.  The first step is to admit we really do not know then we can start guessing realizing they are just guesses.

I've written an expression down that represents a number between 0 and 1,000,000.  If you can guess it then I'll give you a prize.  I'll give you a hint; it isn't an integer.  Anyone that thinks they can predict the number is fooling themselves but it can be fun guessing and rationalizing the guess.  Also, note the prize is variable; if the exchange rate between today's Bitcoin and today's US dollar goes to $0 then you can have all of my Bitcoins leftover at the moment it dies.  If the rate does top $1,000,000 then the prize will be 1 BTC.

Your challenge is not applicable: market is governed by society, society is composed by humans, and human behavior is far from random.
In fact, it is quite predictable if you have the accurate variables and models.

Using your example: It is not about arbitrarily setting a number, but having a set of obscure and complex rules for the generation of this number between 0 and a million. If you give me enough time with this black box I will be able to approximate very closely and predict the next numbers.
Maybe not exact, but good enough.

That's how social sciences work, and the black box is our human mind.
We have enough empirical information about human behavior to estimate a possible outcome under certain variables.

Alright, but, it isn't just one human mind; it is billions of them.  In my experience human minds work differently enough that sometimes in a few words I can convey a concept and inspire rapid action vs. a strong negative reaction to the same concepts to the point of risking relationship or even life and limb.

So, I will give another hint; the most significant digit (MSD) is 9 narrowing the field down by a factor of 9 (the MSD couldn't have been 0).  There; all human minds operate similarly enough because they are constrained to the physics of the brain http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_brain.  My expression is very very far from random http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistical_randomness; it is in fact stunningly ordered as compared to something truly random.  No one has written a computer program attempting to predict the exchange rate, right?

Make no mistake; no one here is remotely close to estimating any possible outcome at all based on any variables.  We are strictly guessing for the fun of it.  Anyone that thinks they are predicting anything in this space is categorically delusional but that can be a delightful source of fun too.

Heck, the environment alone can wreck havoc with any and all predictions.  When the comet strikes and takes out the planet, unless we've escaped to safety elsewhere, the exchange rate won't matter.  If so then I will declare a push and not payout.

Social psychology, sociology and economy take care of the masses.
There isn't a general model that encompasses from neuropsychology to psychology of masses, in the same way that there isn't still a Theory of Everything in physics (that means, a theory that explains quantum to relativity which are by themselves incompatible to each other).
That's why your example is inapplicable again, you can't talk about physics, neurology or theories of mind to explain social behavior, we are talking of different scales and different specialties.
But it is just all a matter of time, our behavior is definitely deterministic, we just haven't uncovered the whole picture yet.

But what we have is good enough to have a very important impact, and its practical application in our daily lives are scary, especially when you see how heavily -and effectively- exploited it is in advertising.
In any case, while I consider to be impossible for now to predict exact prices, I am more than satisfied with my pretty accurate predictions of trends. Not exact but good enough to be profiting quite handsomely.

One advice: everything seems impossible if you ignore the answers. Never consider something to be random or impossible from ignorance, that mentality itself is very unscientific.
One problem: humans hate to be cataloged or to be considered predictable, because that undermines their illusion of free will.

[BitChick]

The real question is will $1,000,000 ever be worth 1 Bitcoin again once we overtake.

Interesting way to look at it.  There might come a day when we do not even care about what a "dollar" is worth.  It will be about how much BTC it costs, really.  So, the question is, will I be able to buy a really nice house for 1 BTC?  If so, I might be able to buy a few at that price!  

I just checked the April data, about 5 million houses sold each year

If all the real estate agencies accept bitcoin payments, then the total amount of coins are not enough to buy all the houses from a couple of years production

So if the buying power of 1BTC is ever equivalent to the buying power of $1,000,000 and $500,000 buys an average house, those with .5BTC can buy one house.  BTC may eventually be exchanged in such small amounts as mbtc and ubtc (especially if 1 BTC is worth more than $10,000 I would think) That will be a nice day for those of us that are early adopters in this.  Will it happen? I can't see the future.  I think some of the people who bought BTC when they were $1 might be surprised at what they are worth now though so maybe it will be the same for us.

[David Rabahy]

One problem: humans hate to be cataloged or to be considered predictable, because that undermines their illusion of free will.

I was thinking you were going to say that. 

[FinShaggy]

 I'd be impressed if I see $1,000 a coin in my lifetime.

I bet a few years ago you would have been impressed to see an anonymous, global, laundering system get accepted by the public...

[Frozenlock]

I bet a few years ago you would have been impressed to see an anonymous, global, laundering system get accepted by the public...

You mean like cash? 

[FinShaggy]

I bet a few years ago you would have been impressed to see an anonymous, global, laundering system get accepted by the public...

You mean like cash? 

Nope. Cash can be traced.
That's why laundering exists.

[Welsh]

I can't see it happening, all other currencies would have to fail for this to even have a chance I think. Bitcoin would have to be the main source of payment. Who knows? I hope it proves me wrong, I can retire.....lol.

[Frozenlock]

I bet a few years ago you would have been impressed to see an anonymous, global, laundering system get accepted by the public...

You mean like cash? 

Nope. Cash can be traced.
That's why laundering exists.

Why do you think there's mixing services for bitcoins?

[FinShaggy]

I can't see it happening, all other currencies would have to fail for this to even have a chance I think. Bitcoin would have to be the main source of payment. Who knows? I hope it proves me wrong, I can retire.....lol.

No. I think other coins support Bitcoin.

If every town in the world had it's own local crypto currency which could be traded out for state crypto currency, that could be traded out for a national crypto currency, and since BTC started it all, it would be what everyone traded their stuff for in the end.

Of course at first the en goal will be cash, but pretty soon I think people are going to stock up with multiple fiat currencies. Then eventually certain dollars will just disappear in exchange for those fiats, and the new local crypto coins.

And all of this would help make Bitcoin more valuable and mainstream.

[FinShaggy]

I bet a few years ago you would have been impressed to see an anonymous, global, laundering system get accepted by the public...

You mean like cash?  

Nope. Cash can be traced.
That's why laundering exists.

Why do you think there's mixing services for bitcoins?

To double launder. The coin can't be traced, I'm pretty sure it's the transactions that people are mixing for, so the coin doesn't say they sold whatever they sold.

[Frozenlock]

What do you mean the coins can't be traced? They can be traced to their creation! 

[FinShaggy]

What do you mean the coins can't be traced? They can be traced to their creation! 

But they can't be traced to a computer. A person can not be blamed for the contents of a wallet unless they advertise the address.

[Frozenlock]

Ok, would you mind detailing how Bitcoin is more efficient/suited at laundering money than cash?
Otherwise I have the impression that I'll have to ask you to re-define everything.
(For example the traceability issue. Bitcoin is the pinnacle of traceability.)

[Odalv]

It's definitely easier to launder cash.

But cash loses value in time. Bitcoin is the opposite.