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Author Topic: So where exactly are we in the bubble?  (Read 1045 times)
CoinClarity
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August 12, 2017, 07:58:10 AM
 #1

I know y'all have seen this diagram before, and with BTC just crossing $3,800 as I type, where do you think we are in the bubble?

http://i.imgur.com/ibhEMW6.png

Aw man so cuz I'm a noob it won't post the image... Oh well. Its basically that "main stages of a bubble" chart. Which crypto most definitely is in. But are we just beginning the true ascent, or have we reached the peak? Thoughts?
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August 12, 2017, 11:04:26 AM
 #2

This ain't no bubble bubba! This is THE train and it has left the station, get your asses in or you will have to take an expensive flight to board it again.

No kidding, when big boys like Fidelity and Charles Schwab start tracking the COIN, its game over for the little drips.
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August 12, 2017, 11:13:44 AM
 #3

I know y'all have seen this diagram before, and with BTC just crossing $3,800 as I type, where do you think we are in the bubble?



Aw man so cuz I'm a noob it won't post the image... Oh well. Its basically that "main stages of a bubble" chart. Which crypto most definitely is in. But are we just beginning the true ascent, or have we reached the peak? Thoughts?

Do you see many institutional investors in Bitcoin at this time? Are pension funds including Bitcoin in their portfolios? I have exposure to this information at my job and can assure you they are not.

Based on this I would say that we are still in the stealth phase, possibly moving into the awareness phase.
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August 12, 2017, 11:20:10 AM
 #4

I know y'all have seen this diagram before, and with BTC just crossing $3,800 as I type, where do you think we are in the bubble?

why would you think bitcoin is in a bubble when the price is struggling to go up!
have you forgotten the dump to $1800, then the dump to $2200 then the dump to $3100 acouple of days ago.
a bubble would have been a lot faster and a lot bigger than this with 0 corrections.


let me quote your pic so it shows up:
Quote


all i can say about this is that this very same picture has been posted here every single time that bitcoin price has any kind of rise and each time it is the same arguments.

and like always this picture is a very simplified one and it doesn't mean the bubble wasn't that small rise to $2400 and the drop to $1800 can be the bubble burst. and this is currently the back on track after the burst.

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August 12, 2017, 11:29:57 AM
 #5

I think we're at "Media Attention". CNN and Bloomberg are now giving updates on bitcoin and the bitcoin price almost daily. They're treating it as a stock.

We're past the awareness stage (which took place 2013/14) and are now into the first stages of Mania.

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August 12, 2017, 11:53:00 AM
 #6

I know y'all have seen this diagram before, and with BTC just crossing $3,800 as I type, where do you think we are in the bubble?



Aw man so cuz I'm a noob it won't post the image... Oh well. Its basically that "main stages of a bubble" chart. Which crypto most definitely is in. But are we just beginning the true ascent, or have we reached the peak? Thoughts?

That image is nice, unlucky you can’t post it. This might not be a bubble at all, especially with the recent drops in value. There was a drop to 2000 a while back before August the first, we then recovered and we rose to 3000, stabilised there and then pushed up to 3.5K. Then we dropped to 3.1K and now with more pumping from miners, we have reached 3.8K.

If we are in a bubble though, I would say we are in the media attention phase now, people are getting more and more interested with bitcoin daily and the media is also following suit.

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August 12, 2017, 11:58:46 AM
 #7

I don't think we're in a bubble (short term speaking) unless we in the coming months rocket up to everything above the $6000 level. Everything below that is considered to be an overbought market for me. Realistically, a fair price in my eyes with Segwit being activated would be anything between $3000-$4000. It may be a somewhat conservative range, but that's mainly due to the fact that we don't know how things will play out at the time the 2MB hard fork is supposed to kick in.

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August 12, 2017, 11:59:15 AM
 #8

I think we're at "Media Attention". CNN and Bloomberg are now giving updates on bitcoin and the bitcoin price almost daily. They're treating it as a stock.

We're past the awareness stage (which took place 2013/14) and are now into the first stages of Mania.
Mania is the first step to the bladder. People create it. Then you can all suffer. To turn the bitcoin for investment was the worst of all thoughts. Bitcoin around too much speculation. They constantly pump up the price, it discourages users and inhibits the development.

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August 12, 2017, 11:59:36 AM
 #9

I think we're at "Media Attention". CNN and Bloomberg are now giving updates on bitcoin and the bitcoin price almost daily. They're treating it as a stock.

We're past the awareness stage (which took place 2013/14) and are now into the first stages of Mania.

That's the fun part about this graph. While it gets posted during every growth phase it's almost always applied only to the current cycle, not the big picture. Plot twist being that all the cycles we've seen so far may just be blips on what in retrospective may very well have just been the stealth and awareness phase.

Growth has been healthy so far, but it looks indeed like we may be entering the mania phase of the current cycle. Possibly even of the big picture. On the other hand Bitcoin might simply stabilize which would also be fine in my book.


That image is nice, unlucky you can’t post it. This might not be a bubble at all, especially with the recent drops in value. There was a drop to 2000 a while back before August the first, we then recovered and we rose to 3000, stabilised there and then pushed up to 3.5K. Then we dropped to 3.1K and now with more pumping from miners, we have reached 3.8K.

If we are in a bubble though, I would say we are in the media attention phase now, people are getting more and more interested with bitcoin daily and the media is also following suit.

The drop to 1850 looks suspiciously like the bear trap in said graph. I too think we're not in a bubble yet, but there's not much missing to turn the current growth phase into one.

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August 12, 2017, 12:05:51 PM
 #10

There are no bitcoin ETFs, mutual funds including bitcoins etc. so why did you keep the phase where institutional investors come in? They'd bring billions to the table but you think we've in a bubble now? Wait until some country makes investing in bitcoins easy.


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August 12, 2017, 12:14:24 PM
 #11

1800 was the bear trap, and if the price doubles in a week, that is the signal we are in a bubble
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August 12, 2017, 12:51:18 PM
 #12

I know y'all have seen this diagram before, and with BTC just crossing $3,800 as I type, where do you think we are in the bubble?



Aw man so cuz I'm a noob it won't post the image... Oh well. Its basically that "main stages of a bubble" chart. Which crypto most definitely is in. But are we just beginning the true ascent, or have we reached the peak? Thoughts?

Do you see many institutional investors in Bitcoin at this time? Are pension funds including Bitcoin in their portfolios? I have exposure to this information at my job and can assure you they are not.

Based on this I would say that we are still in the stealth phase, possibly moving into the awareness phase.

Exactly!

To the OP: Short term bubbles happen, but they are short term so they don't matter. There's been several bubbles with bitcoin already along the way, so I'm not concerned with any short term bubble as even on burst you can be sure bitcoin will be reaching new all time highs relatively soon. As this poster said, in the longer term, we are still in the stealth phase. Institutional investors have not come on board yet, but it is looking like that will happen next year, so next year will probably be the "take off". In a year or two the current price is going to look so tiny most of the public will be thinking how they could have made so much money if they just invested in bitcoin by the end of 2017.
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August 12, 2017, 01:27:25 PM
 #13

I know y'all have seen this diagram before, and with BTC just crossing $3,800 as I type, where do you think we are in the bubble?



Aw man so cuz I'm a noob it won't post the image... Oh well. Its basically that "main stages of a bubble" chart. Which crypto most definitely is in. But are we just beginning the true ascent, or have we reached the peak? Thoughts?

I don't know if it is a bubble, but I do think there will be some kind of correction. The price just keeps going up so it has to drop sometime. There will be fluctuations in price even if Bitcoin isn't in a bubble or being pumped. I don't think it would be a bad idea to sell if the price keeps going up because you could buy back at a cheaper price.

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August 12, 2017, 01:49:03 PM
 #14

I think we're at "Media Attention". CNN and Bloomberg are now giving updates on bitcoin and the bitcoin price almost daily. They're treating it as a stock.

We're past the awareness stage (which took place 2013/14) and are now into the first stages of Mania.

That's the fun part about this graph. While it gets posted during every growth phase it's almost always applied only to the current cycle, not the big picture. Plot twist being that all the cycles we've seen so far may just be blips on what in retrospective may very well have just been the stealth and awareness phase.

Growth has been healthy so far, but it looks indeed like we may be entering the mania phase of the current cycle. Possibly even of the big picture. On the other hand Bitcoin might simply stabilize which would also be fine in my book.



The best part of it is that the Mania phase is Yuuuge. We're just at the start and it has a ways to go. The trick is knowing when the whole thing is about to collapse at the Delusion phase and get out in time.

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August 12, 2017, 01:52:48 PM
 #15

I know y'all have seen this diagram before, and with BTC just crossing $3,800 as I type, where do you think we are in the bubble?
Aw man so cuz I'm a noob it won't post the image... Oh well. Its basically that "main stages of a bubble" chart. Which crypto most definitely is in. But are we just beginning the true ascent, or have we reached the peak? Thoughts?

Bubble is created when commodity is overvalued than its actual value. But how could you limit the sky of so-called Bitcoin? You are not the first to ask about bubble phase, this discussion has been here on forum from long when it was $500 or $1k or $2k but see where we are today. What happened to those claiming Bitcoin prices to be bubble in past!
There is still much to go for Bitcoin, whole of its rally depends upon public adoption which is still very-very low. As it will grow its feathers, price will boom and boom.
There is hardly any bubble at the moment.

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August 12, 2017, 02:02:21 PM
 #16

I know y'all have seen this diagram before, and with BTC just crossing $3,800 as I type, where do you think we are in the bubble?
Aw man so cuz I'm a noob it won't post the image... Oh well. Its basically that "main stages of a bubble" chart. Which crypto most definitely is in. But are we just beginning the true ascent, or have we reached the peak? Thoughts?

Bubble is created when commodity is overvalued than its actual value. But how could you limit the sky of so-called Bitcoin? You are not the first to ask about bubble phase, this discussion has been here on forum from long when it was $500 or $1k or $2k but see where we are today. What happened to those claiming Bitcoin prices to be bubble in past!
There is still much to go for Bitcoin, whole of its rally depends upon public adoption which is still very-very low. As it will grow its feathers, price will boom and boom.
There is hardly any bubble at the moment.

It's hard to estimate the real value of bitcoin or the pointn when it is overvalued.
But bitcoin with it's features combined with its limited supply, that is worth something!
And when you think about how few people actually use bitcoin, I see still very much potential in it.
Corrections will happen, there is no doubt about that, but personally I think that we are at the beginning of a very long trend!

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August 12, 2017, 02:12:14 PM
 #17

not this image again. this image has been posted more times than i have satoshi Wink

and if you want my answer, i say we are currently in the blow off phase when the despair had already happened at the bottom price of $1830 and it is slowly coming back up to the "mean"

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August 12, 2017, 02:41:28 PM
 #18

Bitcoin prices have risen again and everyone is talking about bubble. forget this. The price is real. What will you say when the price reach 10000 dollar?
There is no bubble. Do not wait for price fall. Buy bitcoin now.

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August 12, 2017, 03:29:53 PM
 #19

During this bubble I think we are between enthusiasm and greed.

But don't you worry: There will be more bubbles in future. Bitcoin is in a never-ending cycle of bubbles.

Iranus
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August 12, 2017, 03:51:47 PM
 #20

not this image again. this image has been posted more times than i have satoshi Wink

and if you want my answer, i say we are currently in the blow off phase when the despair had already happened at the bottom price of $1830 and it is slowly coming back up to the "mean"
What are you on about?

The bubble moved out of the stealth phase at around $1000, differing from the mean.  If you look at a chart, you can see the bull market beginning at around August to October 2015.  In late 2016 it starts pushing unusually fast, moving into the "awareness phase".  In about March 2017 there is a notable sell off, which is the "bear trap".  Then the price begins jumping sharply at the start of May, which is when the "mania phase" begins.

During the mania phase there has been some swings, but only relatively minor ones.  Even the drop to $1800 was not very significant.  Now we are going so rapidly upwards that it is blatantly the "greed" or "delusion" phase (which is why the public, including you, are having delusions about where we are in the bubble).

The bubble may have further to go up, but I'm already mostly out as I've been buying stuff with my coins over the last couple of days.

The "mean" is somewhere between $800 and $1200 if you ask me.  I expect a bear market to bottom out around $600, which could happen in the next two to three years.

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