MICRO
Legendary
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Activity: 2464
Merit: 1037
CEO @ Stake.com and Primedice.com
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January 11, 2015, 01:02:58 PM |
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That would be (0.4^13)*100% ~= 0.000671% so quite unlucky
Problem with that calculation is that u only calculate how unlikely is that he will get that streak in just that many bets. But u don't take in account how much bets he made before that and also how much bets are made on site in total . In 3b bets streaks like that are near 100% chance to happen even without house edge. Its not just about his 13bets and 13 loses in that 13 bets . If u calculate it like that , yeah chance is pretty damn low . But in 100k bets 1m bets 3b bets streaks like that are inevitable .
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Gws24
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January 11, 2015, 01:03:42 PM |
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That would be (0.4^13)*100% ~= 0.000671% so quite unlucky
But if someone tries hard enough(for example: by trying to make endless money with martingale) it will not be too unlikely to happens at least once. Then the loss will be bigger than the total profit. So better don't try endless money with martingale and be prepared for the worse and for unlucky too Agreed. As a single occurence it's unlucky but you're right that if you make enough bets, for instance using the robot roll feature, then eventually it will happen and you'll bust. EDIT: @micro Making a post at the same time saying basically the same thing
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Omikifuse
Legendary
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Activity: 1820
Merit: 1009
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January 12, 2015, 03:26:29 AM |
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Can someone say me % chance to get this streak? my win chance was 60% Sorry for your bad luck. Hope your lost was not too big
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karakhan
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January 12, 2015, 09:51:04 AM |
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as you see it is only 40k satoshi lol
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Bizmark13
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January 12, 2015, 10:13:10 AM |
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as you see it is only 40k satoshi lol
This is a good example of how Martingale can fail spectacularly. Originally, he only bet 5 satoshis - an insignificant sum. He risked 40,000 satoshis to make just 5 satoshis. Doing it once or twice is relatively risk-free. But you can't become rich by making 5 or 10 satoshis. Or even 50 satoshis for that matter. In order to make a good sum of money, you need to do this hundreds, perhaps even thousands of times. As you make bet after bet after bet, you start to see the chains emerge. Slowly at first. Perhaps a string of three or four bad rolls. Then five... Then six... The panic escalates, until the green digits that you've been waiting for reemerge. Then it subsides. You recuperate, and start betting again. But eventually it happens. It always happens. Yet another string of bad rolls, not too different from the last few. Six... Seven... Oh no. Perhaps this is the big one? Eight... Argh! Nine... You're down to your last roll. One last shot. Will it be green? Yes? Yes? ...No. It's red. And your whole balance is wiped away.
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NeuroticFish
Legendary
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Activity: 3808
Merit: 6523
Looking for campaign manager? Contact icopress!
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January 12, 2015, 05:40:49 PM |
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You would be a tough competitor for longest losing streak on... another site. And when that competition will end - in a week from now - we will see how long a really long losing streak can be. I expect something about 20-25, but.. let's wait and see.
edit: typo
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polipo00
Newbie
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Activity: 10
Merit: 0
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January 12, 2015, 08:35:13 PM |
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ligeros
Full Member
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Activity: 182
Merit: 100
★Bitin.io★ - Instant Exchange
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January 12, 2015, 10:15:33 PM |
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You would be a tough competitor for longest losing streak on... another site. And when that competition will end - in a week from now - we will see how long a really long losing streak can be. I expect something about 20-25, but.. let's wait and see.
edit: typo
interesting idea if Stunna will make such competition on PD I'm going to win seriously, I am very "lucky" for such things as losing streaks
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Stunna (OP)
Legendary
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Activity: 3192
Merit: 1279
Primedice.com, Stake.com
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January 13, 2015, 07:35:51 AM |
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Faucet will now be 200 satoshi's unless your wagered is over 1 BTC. If your wagered is over 1 BTC your faucet will remain the same prior to the update and will increment in the same manner.
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lili song
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January 13, 2015, 08:18:58 AM |
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you're amazing. how do you do that??? i always bet like you did but, i never hit like you. do you have any magic spell (alakadabra)
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rcpb
Newbie
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Activity: 28
Merit: 0
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January 13, 2015, 08:23:29 AM |
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Faucet will now be 200 satoshi's unless your wagered is over 1 BTC. If your wagered is over 1 BTC your faucet will remain the same prior to the update and will increment in the same manner.
i like this update.. this will limit those faucet abusers
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joebean
Newbie
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Activity: 4
Merit: 0
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January 13, 2015, 08:52:53 AM |
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Faucet will now be 200 satoshi's unless your wagered is over 1 BTC. If your wagered is over 1 BTC your faucet will remain the same prior to the update and will increment in the same manner.
I just logged in and my amount wagered has disappeared, I had wagered well over 50 BTC and it was reset to 0 and my faucet correspondingly went down to 200! Although my total "profit" of over minus 2 BTC was still there. Was this an unintended consequence and will I get my faucet back? Thanks!
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Stunna (OP)
Legendary
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Activity: 3192
Merit: 1279
Primedice.com, Stake.com
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January 13, 2015, 09:05:16 AM |
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Faucet will now be 200 satoshi's unless your wagered is over 1 BTC. If your wagered is over 1 BTC your faucet will remain the same prior to the update and will increment in the same manner.
I just logged in and my amount wagered has disappeared, I had wagered well over 50 BTC and it was reset to 0 and my faucet correspondingly went down to 200! Although my total "profit" of over minus 2 BTC was still there. Was this an unintended consequence and will I get my faucet back? Thanks! What was your username?
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joebean
Newbie
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Activity: 4
Merit: 0
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January 13, 2015, 09:07:34 AM |
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Faucet will now be 200 satoshi's unless your wagered is over 1 BTC. If your wagered is over 1 BTC your faucet will remain the same prior to the update and will increment in the same manner.
I just logged in and my amount wagered has disappeared, I had wagered well over 50 BTC and it was reset to 0 and my faucet correspondingly went down to 200! Although my total "profit" of over minus 2 BTC was still there. Was this an unintended consequence and will I get my faucet back? Thanks! What was your username? Hi Stunna, thanks for looking into it. My username is ianoob2. Best wishes!
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Stunna (OP)
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 3192
Merit: 1279
Primedice.com, Stake.com
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January 13, 2015, 09:16:34 AM |
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Faucet will now be 200 satoshi's unless your wagered is over 1 BTC. If your wagered is over 1 BTC your faucet will remain the same prior to the update and will increment in the same manner.
I just logged in and my amount wagered has disappeared, I had wagered well over 50 BTC and it was reset to 0 and my faucet correspondingly went down to 200! Although my total "profit" of over minus 2 BTC was still there. Was this an unintended consequence and will I get my faucet back? Thanks! What was your username? Hi Stunna, thanks for looking into it. My username is ianoob2. Best wishes! Fixed you up, let me know if that looks about right.
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joebean
Newbie
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Activity: 4
Merit: 0
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January 13, 2015, 09:21:02 AM |
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Faucet will now be 200 satoshi's unless your wagered is over 1 BTC. If your wagered is over 1 BTC your faucet will remain the same prior to the update and will increment in the same manner.
I just logged in and my amount wagered has disappeared, I had wagered well over 50 BTC and it was reset to 0 and my faucet correspondingly went down to 200! Although my total "profit" of over minus 2 BTC was still there. Was this an unintended consequence and will I get my faucet back? Thanks! What was your username? Hi Stunna, thanks for looking into it. My username is ianoob2. Best wishes! Fixed you up, let me know if that looks about right. Hey thanks, now that's service! Love the site and I appreciate your help very much.
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amiryaqot
Legendary
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Activity: 1050
Merit: 1000
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January 13, 2015, 09:43:14 AM |
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zzaza
Legendary
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Activity: 926
Merit: 1000
Zoltan - PD Moderator
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January 13, 2015, 10:15:01 AM |
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Probably you were muted by a mod. It can be you spammed or did something against the rules. Whats your username?
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monetizator4
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January 13, 2015, 10:28:01 AM |
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Faucet will now be 200 satoshi's unless your wagered is over 1 BTC. If your wagered is over 1 BTC your faucet will remain the same prior to the update and will increment in the same manner.
Ok, I have "Total wagered 0.82419426" It's easy to make 1 BTC. BTW right now I got from faucet 0.00001253, not 0.00000200.
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