I posted a valuation analysis in alamin99's sales thread. Cross-posting here for all to see:
50 sats? I think that's a heavy undervalue.
Let's look at the potential of Iridium, with citations to my assumptions:
ANN tells us (
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2150442.0):
-No Premine
-Fair launch
-
LOW TOTAL SUPPLY: most of supply emitted in year 1 (18,750,000 of 25,000,000). This means this will not be a dumpmine coin, because mining rewards will get low soon -> early holders will get massive reward.
-CryptoNote coin
On the downside, roadmap is a little unclear, but this lets us implement a strong comparable: ByteCoin (BCN), another cryptonote coin which has little utility right now (their "ecosystem" is all pools/exchanges, which means they have no real functionality yet, see
https://bytecoin.org/ecosystem/). BCN has a nethash of 4 MH/s (
https://minergate.com/blockchain/bcn/blocks) and a market cap of $287 million (
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bytecoin-bcn/).
Iridium has a nethash of ~147 KH/s (
https://mine77.net/). Let's discount that to 140 KH/s because it might be volatile right now. So 140 KH/s out of 4 MH/s is 3.5%.
If we value Iridium at 3.5% of BCN, that's US$10.05 million. But of course, we must discount for the 3.5 year head-start of BCN. On March 12 2014, BCN launched (
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=512747.0). Crypto market cap was US$9.167 billion that day (
https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/). Today, crypto market cap is US$144.134 billion (
https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/). So crypto market cap was only 6.36% of today's market cap on the day BCN launched.
If we apply 6.36% to the US$10.05 million potental for Iridium (to discount it back 3.5 years), we get a US$638,860 market cap estimate for Iridium today, right now, based on current hash (as hash and time increase, value will increase). The US$638,860 is the value of the current supply already emitted. Also consider that SIGT (a recent no premine coin), a currency with a roadmap and a plan but no product, has a market cap of US$4 million after less than two months (
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/signatum/). So over $600,000 for a new coin with a fair launch and no premine is not out of the ordinary, and very achievable.
Now, current supply is a little hard to figure out because the block sizes are not uniform. Users are reporting block rewards ranging from the 40s to about 94 (see
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2150442.msg21584105#msg2158410 and
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2150442.msg21587151#msg21587151). If you keep an eye on "Last Reward" at a couple of the pools (
https://mine77.net/), you will see the same - block rewards fluctuate from 94 to 60 to something in the 40s.
Let's take a buyer-friendly assumption, and assume all blocks are size 95. This is buyer-friendly because the more I increase the current Iridium supply in this estimate, the lower the price is. I am giving a maximum possible supply.
Current blockheight is 4283**. That suggests a current supply
MAX of 4283*95 = 406,885.
Price then is simply US$638,860 estimated current cap divided by 406,885 max current supply = US$1.57 per Iridium. If we conservatively assume $4200 per bitcoin (price as of writing is $4122) then the satoshis value is 1.57/4200 = .00037380 Bitcoin or 37380 satoshis.
If you want to argue that's too high, by all means do so, but I have given a very conservative estimate of value and even my large overestimate of supply illustrates how small the supply of this coin really is. So please argue against the math, not some generic notion of why this is too high. I realize the supply is growing, but so is value in terms of hash and time, and given that more than 50% of blocks seem to have rewards in the 40s (unlike my assumption that all are 95), I have probably already estimated the price at nearly half of what it should be. If you want to apply a further haircut for risk, by all means do so, but this coin is likely worth over 20k satoshis, and possibly as high as 50k.
**Note: I wrote this like 60 mins ago. There may be a few more blocks since then, but I have already severely overestimated supply (thus underestimating price), and even another 400 blocks will only affect my calculations by 10%. Some of the other numbers may have varied a little too, but the Iridium hash is up to 150 KH/s, which is 7% higher than the value in my estimate. So my estimate is still conservative.
TL;DR: good mathematical basis for estimating value at 37380 sats. If you want to apply a margin of +- 50% for risk, that still means a value over 20000 sats. People need to really understand how low the supply is. Don't sell at 50 sats per Iridium.Edit: some math fixes.
