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Windozxpert
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September 11, 2017, 03:49:35 PM |
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Should be. All the payments I received from them have cleared my wallet. |
There's no I in team, but there is a "Me" if you jumble it up. ~ House, M.D.
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Even in the event that an attacker gains more than 50% of the network's
computational power, only transactions sent by the attacker could be
reversed or double-spent. The network would not be destroyed.
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Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction.
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TheKryptonian
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September 11, 2017, 03:50:31 PM |
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Yes - the two pools are showing the exact same blockchain height and difficulty. They are calculating the nethash from difficulty in different ways. Mine77 explained why he thinks his is right, but we don't know for sure:
The node-cryptonote-pool project computes Network Hash Rate as (difficulty / block_time_target), and uses a constant of "120" baked in to the source code in pages/home.html, which I believe matches the block time target of Monero. Iridium uses a block time target of 175sec, so I believe that the 120 should be changed to 175, making the lower number likely more accurate. That project doesn't really document everything that needs to be changed to port it to another coin.
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greentekel
Newbie
 Offline
Activity: 38
Merit: 0
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September 11, 2017, 03:56:36 PM |
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For newer Nvidia cards, xmrMiner works better, with maybe 20% increased hashes, but this will come at a small cost since the system will become a little sluggish where the video card is used (big web pages, photoshop, etc). Also for CPU, xmr-stak-cpu is the best. For guys with Ryzen (and maybe hi-end I7) is better to put the miner work only on 8 cores not all 16 because the processor doesn't have enough cache for logical processors. So for Ryzen write in config file to only to mine on cores 0,2,4,6,8,10,12,14. |
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hualei_hb
Member
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Activity: 112
Merit: 10
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September 11, 2017, 04:20:52 PM |
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For newer Nvidia cards, xmrMiner works better, with maybe 20% increased hashes, but this will come at a small cost since the system will become a little sluggish where the video card is used (big web pages, photoshop, etc). Also for CPU, xmr-stak-cpu is the best. For guys with Ryzen (and maybe hi-end I7) is better to put the miner work only on 8 cores not all 16 because the processor doesn't have enough cache for logical processors. So for Ryzen write in config file to only to mine on cores 0,2,4,6,8,10,12,14. great,i'l test the xmrMiner. |
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TheKryptonian
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September 11, 2017, 04:22:58 PM |
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I posted a valuation analysis in alamin99's sales thread. Cross-posting here for all to see: 50 sats? I think that's a heavy undervalue. Let's look at the potential of Iridium, with citations to my assumptions: ANN tells us ( https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2150442.0): -No Premine -Fair launch - LOW TOTAL SUPPLY: most of supply emitted in year 1 (18,750,000 of 25,000,000). This means this will not be a dumpmine coin, because mining rewards will get low soon -> early holders will get massive reward. -CryptoNote coin On the downside, roadmap is a little unclear, but this lets us implement a strong comparable: ByteCoin (BCN), another cryptonote coin which has little utility right now (their "ecosystem" is all pools/exchanges, which means they have no real functionality yet, see https://bytecoin.org/ecosystem/). BCN has a nethash of 4 MH/s ( https://minergate.com/blockchain/bcn/blocks) and a market cap of $287 million ( https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bytecoin-bcn/). Iridium has a nethash of ~147 KH/s ( https://mine77.net/). Let's discount that to 140 KH/s because it might be volatile right now. So 140 KH/s out of 4 MH/s is 3.5%. If we value Iridium at 3.5% of BCN, that's US$10.05 million. But of course, we must discount for the 3.5 year head-start of BCN. On March 12 2014, BCN launched ( https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=512747.0). Crypto market cap was US$9.167 billion that day ( https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/). Today, crypto market cap is US$144.134 billion ( https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/). So crypto market cap was only 6.36% of today's market cap on the day BCN launched. If we apply 6.36% to the US$10.05 million potental for Iridium (to discount it back 3.5 years), we get a US$638,860 market cap estimate for Iridium today, right now, based on current hash (as hash and time increase, value will increase). The US$638,860 is the value of the current supply already emitted. Also consider that SIGT (a recent no premine coin), a currency with a roadmap and a plan but no product, has a market cap of US$4 million after less than two months ( https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/signatum/). So over $600,000 for a new coin with a fair launch and no premine is not out of the ordinary, and very achievable. Now, current supply is a little hard to figure out because the block sizes are not uniform. Users are reporting block rewards ranging from the 40s to about 94 (see https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2150442.msg21584105#msg2158410 and https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2150442.msg21587151#msg21587151). If you keep an eye on "Last Reward" at a couple of the pools ( https://mine77.net/), you will see the same - block rewards fluctuate from 94 to 60 to something in the 40s. Let's take a buyer-friendly assumption, and assume all blocks are size 95. This is buyer-friendly because the more I increase the current Iridium supply in this estimate, the lower the price is. I am giving a maximum possible supply. Current blockheight is 4283**. That suggests a current supply MAX of 4283*95 = 406,885. Price then is simply US$638,860 estimated current cap divided by 406,885 max current supply = US$1.57 per Iridium. If we conservatively assume $4200 per bitcoin (price as of writing is $4122) then the satoshis value is 1.57/4200 = .00037380 Bitcoin or 37380 satoshis. If you want to argue that's too high, by all means do so, but I have given a very conservative estimate of value and even my large overestimate of supply illustrates how small the supply of this coin really is. So please argue against the math, not some generic notion of why this is too high. I realize the supply is growing, but so is value in terms of hash and time, and given that more than 50% of blocks seem to have rewards in the 40s (unlike my assumption that all are 95), I have probably already estimated the price at nearly half of what it should be. If you want to apply a further haircut for risk, by all means do so, but this coin is likely worth over 20k satoshis, and possibly as high as 50k. **Note: I wrote this like 60 mins ago. There may be a few more blocks since then, but I have already severely overestimated supply (thus underestimating price), and even another 400 blocks will only affect my calculations by 10%. Some of the other numbers may have varied a little too, but the Iridium hash is up to 150 KH/s, which is 7% higher than the value in my estimate. So my estimate is still conservative. TL;DR: good mathematical basis for estimating value at 37380 sats. If you want to apply a margin of +- 50% for risk, that still means a value over 20000 sats. People need to really understand how low the supply is. Don't sell at 50 sats per Iridium.Edit: some math fixes. lol thank you for posting your answer. This is why he's trying to buy them before they hit the exchanges. He was aiming for 200 sats w/ me. This coin is going to be a good one to get in early on, just like Sig. I was glad I got in on that one in the first 24 hours, I'll be glad I got in on this one as well, just like everyone here... IF THEY DON'T SELL THEM TOO SOON. Buying IRD, interested sellers pm me.
I suspect the IRD price will start out rather high, once it hits the exchanges, due to it's limited supply. Then again, DMD had a limited supply too, didn't it? What did it start out as? Why don't you just mine yourself some? <24 hours = 933 IRD.  Though the start price goes high, that won't stay long. Remember, nearly 1 million coins have been mined already. Also, as I guess, it will take 20~25 days to get listed on exchanges. So, there will be huge coins available at market and the price will crash for sure. Then the race will be who can dump his coins first. After price tanking for long days, it may get a bounce back then it will be stable. And about mining, I am mining with my GPU, will try nicehash. According to nicehash price and current difficulty level, mining cost per IRD is less than 200 satoshi. Edit: dude, I didn't say 50 satoshi, I just wrote it as an example!!! plus, when the price will tank, it will lose miners and hashrate. Alamin99 - I'm sorry if you felt my post was attacking you. It was only attacking the idea of a low price, but I don't think it actually accuses you of anything. You're a buyer, which is always good for a coin's interest regardless of price. To respond to your nicehash valuation strategy: I think your 200 sat calculation is off for the following reason: when you use the calculators on the pools, they don't account for how much difficulty your own hash adds. Think of it this way: at 175 second blocktimes and 95 coins/block, the max daily supply is ~493 blocks/day * 95 IRD/block = 46835 IRD. But right now the pool calculators will show you that its possible to earn 273,000 IRD in one day if you put 1 MH/s. That's obviously impossible. The pool calculator is not considering that difficulty will skyrocket, and your reward will fall sharply. Plus, you may set the NiceHash order, but when others see higher hash, they will also switch to mining IRD, so difficulty will go up even more. There are also other issues with NiceHash - ordering can be a pain, there are NiceHash order fees to consider, BTC transfer to NiceHash (and those fees too) to consider, you need to monitor it constantly, sometimes the hashrate at the pool is lower than purchased hash, etc etc. So you cannot simply price the coin at the NiceHash equivalent, because you're saving yourself a lot of time, fees, and headaches when you buy instead of mine. That being said, I do agree that if you are willing to use NiceHash, then you can mine the coin more cheaply than my estimate of the price. This is a natural consequence of being an early miner in this coin. But it doesn't mean I'm wrong about the price/value of the coin, it just means mining is more profitable than buying right now. Part of this is the risk premium, part of this is because people aren't always aware of new launches so we're the better informed parties, and part of this is because I suspect a lot of NiceHash orders are set by bots to mine Monero. The answer here is that you shouldn't be trying to buy from other miners at the NiceHash price (and anyone selling at the NiceHash price of CryptoNote mining - why not just sell your hash to NiceHash?). You should just place an order at NiceHash and be one of the early miners invested in the coin. Also I'd like to respond to this as well:
Though the start price goes high, that won't stay long. Remember, nearly 1 million coins have been mined already. Also, as I guess, it will take 20~25 days to get listed on exchanges. So, there will be huge coins available at market and the price will crash for sure. Then the race will be who can dump his coins first. After price tanking for long days, it may get a bounce back then it will be stable.
And about mining, I am mining with my GPU, will try nicehash. According to nicehash price and current difficulty level, mining cost per IRD is less than 200 satoshi.
Firstly, the beta explorer ( https://explorer.mine77.net/) clearly shows the supply is still less than 400,000 IRD, many hours after my analysis that conservatively used a much higher supply to give a low-end price estimate. Second, you are right that there will be an initial sell-off, but you are overestimating the "dump" because even if it gets to 1 million coins, that's far, far less than other coins. Again, look at SIGT: I think it was launched July 14 ( https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2030529.0), listed roughly July 25, and its first low point was about Aug 2 when it hit around 650 sats ( https://www.cryptopia.co.nz/Exchange/?market=SIGT_BTC). But on Aug 2, there were at least 21600 blocks ( http://explorer.signatum.download/block/8ff7487af422d46be0514bf09758cfdbce7a8c80fb5bf6572e6da414e18d7728), and with a 2500 block reward, that means a 54 million supply. And, remember - two weeks into SIGT, that coin had nothing, not even a real roadmap. So even if you're right that the IRD supply might be 1 million at launch, it will still be 54 times more rare than SIGT. And at SIGT's lower, post-dump price, it was 650 sats, so a coin 54 times as rare (worth 54 times as much) has a potential post-dump price of 54 x 650 = 35,100 sats. Surprise, that's almost exactly what I estimated in my early valuation using the BCN comparable. So it's robust to your assumptions of a 1 million supply and a post-launch dump. Frankly, I am very appreciative of everything you (Alamin99) are doing to support this coin, like buying the domain. I strongly suggest you do what you suggested, which is mine it through NiceHash, because you have a real profit opportunity here while the coin is undervalued due to its young age. If people are willing to sell IRD to you at the NiceHash mining price, they are way undervaluing the coin, so you should buy them out but they will regret it in a month (and if they want to sell NiceHash prices, they should just sell their GPU power to NiceHash). |
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hualei_hb
Member
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Activity: 112
Merit: 10
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September 11, 2017, 04:30:59 PM |
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Yes - the two pools are showing the exact same blockchain height and difficulty. They are calculating the nethash from difficulty in different ways. Mine77 explained why he thinks his is right, but we don't know for sure:
The node-cryptonote-pool project computes Network Hash Rate as (difficulty / block_time_target), and uses a constant of "120" baked in to the source code in pages/home.html, which I believe matches the block time target of Monero. Iridium uses a block time target of 175sec, so I believe that the 120 should be changed to 175, making the lower number likely more accurate. That project doesn't really document everything that needs to be changed to port it to another coin.
I review source code , const uint64_t DIFFICULTY_TARGET = 175; // seconds Our pool Adjust parameters. thinks all. |
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Windozxpert
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September 11, 2017, 04:57:49 PM |
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I posted a valuation analysis in alamin99's sales thread. Cross-posting here for all to see: 50 sats? I think that's a heavy undervalue. Let's look at the potential of Iridium, with citations to my assumptions: ANN tells us ( https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2150442.0): -No Premine -Fair launch - LOW TOTAL SUPPLY: most of supply emitted in year 1 (18,750,000 of 25,000,000). This means this will not be a dumpmine coin, because mining rewards will get low soon -> early holders will get massive reward. -CryptoNote coin On the downside, roadmap is a little unclear, but this lets us implement a strong comparable: ByteCoin (BCN), another cryptonote coin which has little utility right now (their "ecosystem" is all pools/exchanges, which means they have no real functionality yet, see https://bytecoin.org/ecosystem/). BCN has a nethash of 4 MH/s ( https://minergate.com/blockchain/bcn/blocks) and a market cap of $287 million ( https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bytecoin-bcn/). Iridium has a nethash of ~147 KH/s ( https://mine77.net/). Let's discount that to 140 KH/s because it might be volatile right now. So 140 KH/s out of 4 MH/s is 3.5%. If we value Iridium at 3.5% of BCN, that's US$10.05 million. But of course, we must discount for the 3.5 year head-start of BCN. On March 12 2014, BCN launched ( https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=512747.0). Crypto market cap was US$9.167 billion that day ( https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/). Today, crypto market cap is US$144.134 billion ( https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/). So crypto market cap was only 6.36% of today's market cap on the day BCN launched. If we apply 6.36% to the US$10.05 million potental for Iridium (to discount it back 3.5 years), we get a US$638,860 market cap estimate for Iridium today, right now, based on current hash (as hash and time increase, value will increase). The US$638,860 is the value of the current supply already emitted. Also consider that SIGT (a recent no premine coin), a currency with a roadmap and a plan but no product, has a market cap of US$4 million after less than two months ( https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/signatum/). So over $600,000 for a new coin with a fair launch and no premine is not out of the ordinary, and very achievable. Now, current supply is a little hard to figure out because the block sizes are not uniform. Users are reporting block rewards ranging from the 40s to about 94 (see https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2150442.msg21584105#msg2158410 and https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2150442.msg21587151#msg21587151). If you keep an eye on "Last Reward" at a couple of the pools ( https://mine77.net/), you will see the same - block rewards fluctuate from 94 to 60 to something in the 40s. Let's take a buyer-friendly assumption, and assume all blocks are size 95. This is buyer-friendly because the more I increase the current Iridium supply in this estimate, the lower the price is. I am giving a maximum possible supply. Current blockheight is 4283**. That suggests a current supply MAX of 4283*95 = 406,885. Price then is simply US$638,860 estimated current cap divided by 406,885 max current supply = US$1.57 per Iridium. If we conservatively assume $4200 per bitcoin (price as of writing is $4122) then the satoshis value is 1.57/4200 = .00037380 Bitcoin or 37380 satoshis. If you want to argue that's too high, by all means do so, but I have given a very conservative estimate of value and even my large overestimate of supply illustrates how small the supply of this coin really is. So please argue against the math, not some generic notion of why this is too high. I realize the supply is growing, but so is value in terms of hash and time, and given that more than 50% of blocks seem to have rewards in the 40s (unlike my assumption that all are 95), I have probably already estimated the price at nearly half of what it should be. If you want to apply a further haircut for risk, by all means do so, but this coin is likely worth over 20k satoshis, and possibly as high as 50k. **Note: I wrote this like 60 mins ago. There may be a few more blocks since then, but I have already severely overestimated supply (thus underestimating price), and even another 400 blocks will only affect my calculations by 10%. Some of the other numbers may have varied a little too, but the Iridium hash is up to 150 KH/s, which is 7% higher than the value in my estimate. So my estimate is still conservative. TL;DR: good mathematical basis for estimating value at 37380 sats. If you want to apply a margin of +- 50% for risk, that still means a value over 20000 sats. People need to really understand how low the supply is. Don't sell at 50 sats per Iridium.Edit: some math fixes. lol thank you for posting your answer. This is why he's trying to buy them before they hit the exchanges. He was aiming for 200 sats w/ me. This coin is going to be a good one to get in early on, just like Sig. I was glad I got in on that one in the first 24 hours, I'll be glad I got in on this one as well, just like everyone here... IF THEY DON'T SELL THEM TOO SOON. Buying IRD, interested sellers pm me.
I suspect the IRD price will start out rather high, once it hits the exchanges, due to it's limited supply. Then again, DMD had a limited supply too, didn't it? What did it start out as? Why don't you just mine yourself some? <24 hours = 933 IRD. Though the start price goes high, that won't stay long. Remember, nearly 1 million coins have been mined already. Also, as I guess, it will take 20~25 days to get listed on exchanges. So, there will be huge coins available at market and the price will crash for sure. Then the race will be who can dump his coins first. After price tanking for long days, it may get a bounce back then it will be stable. And about mining, I am mining with my GPU, will try nicehash. According to nicehash price and current difficulty level, mining cost per IRD is less than 200 satoshi. Edit: dude, I didn't say 50 satoshi, I just wrote it as an example!!! plus, when the price will tank, it will lose miners and hashrate. Alamin99 - I'm sorry if you felt my post was attacking you. It was only attacking the idea of a low price, but I don't think it actually accuses you of anything. You're a buyer, which is always good for a coin's interest regardless of price. To respond to your nicehash valuation strategy: I think your 200 sat calculation is off for the following reason: when you use the calculators on the pools, they don't account for how much difficulty your own hash adds. Think of it this way: at 175 second blocktimes and 95 coins/block, the max daily supply is ~493 blocks/day * 95 IRD/block = 46835 IRD. But right now the pool calculators will show you that its possible to earn 273,000 IRD in one day if you put 1 MH/s. That's obviously impossible. The pool calculator is not considering that difficulty will skyrocket, and your reward will fall sharply. Plus, you may set the NiceHash order, but when others see higher hash, they will also switch to mining IRD, so difficulty will go up even more. There are also other issues with NiceHash - ordering can be a pain, there are NiceHash order fees to consider, BTC transfer to NiceHash (and those fees too) to consider, you need to monitor it constantly, sometimes the hashrate at the pool is lower than purchased hash, etc etc. So you cannot simply price the coin at the NiceHash equivalent, because you're saving yourself a lot of time, fees, and headaches when you buy instead of mine. That being said, I do agree that if you are willing to use NiceHash, then you can mine the coin more cheaply than my estimate of the price. This is a natural consequence of being an early miner in this coin. But it doesn't mean I'm wrong about the price/value of the coin, it just means mining is more profitable than buying right now. Part of this is the risk premium, part of this is because people aren't always aware of new launches so we're the better informed parties, and part of this is because I suspect a lot of NiceHash orders are set by bots to mine Monero. The answer here is that you shouldn't be trying to buy from other miners at the NiceHash price (and anyone selling at the NiceHash price of CryptoNote mining - why not just sell your hash to NiceHash?). You should just place an order at NiceHash and be one of the early miners invested in the coin. Also I'd like to respond to this as well:
Though the start price goes high, that won't stay long. Remember, nearly 1 million coins have been mined already. Also, as I guess, it will take 20~25 days to get listed on exchanges. So, there will be huge coins available at market and the price will crash for sure. Then the race will be who can dump his coins first. After price tanking for long days, it may get a bounce back then it will be stable.
And about mining, I am mining with my GPU, will try nicehash. According to nicehash price and current difficulty level, mining cost per IRD is less than 200 satoshi.
Firstly, the beta explorer ( https://explorer.mine77.net/) clearly shows the supply is still less than 400,000 IRD, many hours after my analysis that conservatively used a much higher supply to give a low-end price estimate. Second, you are right that there will be an initial sell-off, but you are overestimating the "dump" because even if it gets to 1 million coins, that's far, far less than other coins. Again, look at SIGT: I think it was launched July 14 ( https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2030529.0), listed roughly July 25, and its first low point was about Aug 2 when it hit around 650 sats ( https://www.cryptopia.co.nz/Exchange/?market=SIGT_BTC). But on Aug 2, there were at least 21600 blocks ( http://explorer.signatum.download/block/8ff7487af422d46be0514bf09758cfdbce7a8c80fb5bf6572e6da414e18d7728), and with a 2500 block reward, that means a 54 million supply. And, remember - two weeks into SIGT, that coin had nothing, not even a real roadmap. So even if you're right that the IRD supply might be 1 million at launch, it will still be 54 times more rare than SIGT. And at SIGT's lower, post-dump price, it was 650 sats, so a coin 54 times as rare (worth 54 times as much) has a potential post-dump price of 54 x 650 = 35,100 sats. Surprise, that's almost exactly what I estimated in my early valuation using the BCN comparable. So it's robust to your assumptions of a 1 million supply and a post-launch dump. Frankly, I am very appreciative of everything you (Alamin99) are doing to support this coin, like buying the domain. I strongly suggest you do what you suggested, which is mine it through NiceHash, because you have a real profit opportunity here while the coin is undervalued due to its young age. If people are willing to sell IRD to you at the NiceHash mining price, they are way undervaluing the coin, so you should buy them out but they will regret it in a month (and if they want to sell NiceHash prices, they should just sell their GPU power to NiceHash). I need to give you a job. |
There's no I in team, but there is a "Me" if you jumble it up. ~ House, M.D.
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alamin99
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September 11, 2017, 05:03:46 PM |
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I just bought this domain: http://iridium.cc [Iridium CC = Iridium Crypto/Cryptonight Coin] If you like this domain, I will give it to you.  That's a great domain, if you're giving it for the project, go ahead and PM me the details, and thanks again man! You have a PM. |
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alamin99
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September 11, 2017, 05:19:10 PM |
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I posted a valuation analysis in alamin99's sales thread. Cross-posting here for all to see: 50 sats? I think that's a heavy undervalue. Let's look at the potential of Iridium, with citations to my assumptions: ANN tells us ( https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2150442.0): -No Premine -Fair launch - LOW TOTAL SUPPLY: most of supply emitted in year 1 (18,750,000 of 25,000,000). This means this will not be a dumpmine coin, because mining rewards will get low soon -> early holders will get massive reward. -CryptoNote coin On the downside, roadmap is a little unclear, but this lets us implement a strong comparable: ByteCoin (BCN), another cryptonote coin which has little utility right now (their "ecosystem" is all pools/exchanges, which means they have no real functionality yet, see https://bytecoin.org/ecosystem/). BCN has a nethash of 4 MH/s ( https://minergate.com/blockchain/bcn/blocks) and a market cap of $287 million ( https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bytecoin-bcn/). Iridium has a nethash of ~147 KH/s ( https://mine77.net/). Let's discount that to 140 KH/s because it might be volatile right now. So 140 KH/s out of 4 MH/s is 3.5%. If we value Iridium at 3.5% of BCN, that's US$10.05 million. But of course, we must discount for the 3.5 year head-start of BCN. On March 12 2014, BCN launched ( https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=512747.0). Crypto market cap was US$9.167 billion that day ( https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/). Today, crypto market cap is US$144.134 billion ( https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/). So crypto market cap was only 6.36% of today's market cap on the day BCN launched. If we apply 6.36% to the US$10.05 million potental for Iridium (to discount it back 3.5 years), we get a US$638,860 market cap estimate for Iridium today, right now, based on current hash (as hash and time increase, value will increase). The US$638,860 is the value of the current supply already emitted. Also consider that SIGT (a recent no premine coin), a currency with a roadmap and a plan but no product, has a market cap of US$4 million after less than two months ( https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/signatum/). So over $600,000 for a new coin with a fair launch and no premine is not out of the ordinary, and very achievable. Now, current supply is a little hard to figure out because the block sizes are not uniform. Users are reporting block rewards ranging from the 40s to about 94 (see https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2150442.msg21584105#msg2158410 and https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2150442.msg21587151#msg21587151). If you keep an eye on "Last Reward" at a couple of the pools ( https://mine77.net/), you will see the same - block rewards fluctuate from 94 to 60 to something in the 40s. Let's take a buyer-friendly assumption, and assume all blocks are size 95. This is buyer-friendly because the more I increase the current Iridium supply in this estimate, the lower the price is. I am giving a maximum possible supply. Current blockheight is 4283**. That suggests a current supply MAX of 4283*95 = 406,885. Price then is simply US$638,860 estimated current cap divided by 406,885 max current supply = US$1.57 per Iridium. If we conservatively assume $4200 per bitcoin (price as of writing is $4122) then the satoshis value is 1.57/4200 = .00037380 Bitcoin or 37380 satoshis. If you want to argue that's too high, by all means do so, but I have given a very conservative estimate of value and even my large overestimate of supply illustrates how small the supply of this coin really is. So please argue against the math, not some generic notion of why this is too high. I realize the supply is growing, but so is value in terms of hash and time, and given that more than 50% of blocks seem to have rewards in the 40s (unlike my assumption that all are 95), I have probably already estimated the price at nearly half of what it should be. If you want to apply a further haircut for risk, by all means do so, but this coin is likely worth over 20k satoshis, and possibly as high as 50k. **Note: I wrote this like 60 mins ago. There may be a few more blocks since then, but I have already severely overestimated supply (thus underestimating price), and even another 400 blocks will only affect my calculations by 10%. Some of the other numbers may have varied a little too, but the Iridium hash is up to 150 KH/s, which is 7% higher than the value in my estimate. So my estimate is still conservative. TL;DR: good mathematical basis for estimating value at 37380 sats. If you want to apply a margin of +- 50% for risk, that still means a value over 20000 sats. People need to really understand how low the supply is. Don't sell at 50 sats per Iridium.Edit: some math fixes. lol thank you for posting your answer. This is why he's trying to buy them before they hit the exchanges. He was aiming for 200 sats w/ me. This coin is going to be a good one to get in early on, just like Sig. I was glad I got in on that one in the first 24 hours, I'll be glad I got in on this one as well, just like everyone here... IF THEY DON'T SELL THEM TOO SOON. Buying IRD, interested sellers pm me.
I suspect the IRD price will start out rather high, once it hits the exchanges, due to it's limited supply. Then again, DMD had a limited supply too, didn't it? What did it start out as? Why don't you just mine yourself some? <24 hours = 933 IRD. Though the start price goes high, that won't stay long. Remember, nearly 1 million coins have been mined already. Also, as I guess, it will take 20~25 days to get listed on exchanges. So, there will be huge coins available at market and the price will crash for sure. Then the race will be who can dump his coins first. After price tanking for long days, it may get a bounce back then it will be stable. And about mining, I am mining with my GPU, will try nicehash. According to nicehash price and current difficulty level, mining cost per IRD is less than 200 satoshi. Edit: dude, I didn't say 50 satoshi, I just wrote it as an example!!! plus, when the price will tank, it will lose miners and hashrate. Alamin99 - I'm sorry if you felt my post was attacking you. It was only attacking the idea of a low price, but I don't think it actually accuses you of anything. You're a buyer, which is always good for a coin's interest regardless of price. To respond to your nicehash valuation strategy: I think your 200 sat calculation is off for the following reason: when you use the calculators on the pools, they don't account for how much difficulty your own hash adds. Think of it this way: at 175 second blocktimes and 95 coins/block, the max daily supply is ~493 blocks/day * 95 IRD/block = 46835 IRD. But right now the pool calculators will show you that its possible to earn 273,000 IRD in one day if you put 1 MH/s. That's obviously impossible. The pool calculator is not considering that difficulty will skyrocket, and your reward will fall sharply. Plus, you may set the NiceHash order, but when others see higher hash, they will also switch to mining IRD, so difficulty will go up even more. There are also other issues with NiceHash - ordering can be a pain, there are NiceHash order fees to consider, BTC transfer to NiceHash (and those fees too) to consider, you need to monitor it constantly, sometimes the hashrate at the pool is lower than purchased hash, etc etc. So you cannot simply price the coin at the NiceHash equivalent, because you're saving yourself a lot of time, fees, and headaches when you buy instead of mine. That being said, I do agree that if you are willing to use NiceHash, then you can mine the coin more cheaply than my estimate of the price. This is a natural consequence of being an early miner in this coin. But it doesn't mean I'm wrong about the price/value of the coin, it just means mining is more profitable than buying right now. Part of this is the risk premium, part of this is because people aren't always aware of new launches so we're the better informed parties, and part of this is because I suspect a lot of NiceHash orders are set by bots to mine Monero. The answer here is that you shouldn't be trying to buy from other miners at the NiceHash price (and anyone selling at the NiceHash price of CryptoNote mining - why not just sell your hash to NiceHash?). You should just place an order at NiceHash and be one of the early miners invested in the coin. Also I'd like to respond to this as well:
Though the start price goes high, that won't stay long. Remember, nearly 1 million coins have been mined already. Also, as I guess, it will take 20~25 days to get listed on exchanges. So, there will be huge coins available at market and the price will crash for sure. Then the race will be who can dump his coins first. After price tanking for long days, it may get a bounce back then it will be stable.
And about mining, I am mining with my GPU, will try nicehash. According to nicehash price and current difficulty level, mining cost per IRD is less than 200 satoshi.
Firstly, the beta explorer ( https://explorer.mine77.net/) clearly shows the supply is still less than 400,000 IRD, many hours after my analysis that conservatively used a much higher supply to give a low-end price estimate. Second, you are right that there will be an initial sell-off, but you are overestimating the "dump" because even if it gets to 1 million coins, that's far, far less than other coins. Again, look at SIGT: I think it was launched July 14 ( https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2030529.0), listed roughly July 25, and its first low point was about Aug 2 when it hit around 650 sats ( https://www.cryptopia.co.nz/Exchange/?market=SIGT_BTC). But on Aug 2, there were at least 21600 blocks ( http://explorer.signatum.download/block/8ff7487af422d46be0514bf09758cfdbce7a8c80fb5bf6572e6da414e18d7728), and with a 2500 block reward, that means a 54 million supply. And, remember - two weeks into SIGT, that coin had nothing, not even a real roadmap. So even if you're right that the IRD supply might be 1 million at launch, it will still be 54 times more rare than SIGT. And at SIGT's lower, post-dump price, it was 650 sats, so a coin 54 times as rare (worth 54 times as much) has a potential post-dump price of 54 x 650 = 35,100 sats. Surprise, that's almost exactly what I estimated in my early valuation using the BCN comparable. So it's robust to your assumptions of a 1 million supply and a post-launch dump. Frankly, I am very appreciative of everything you (Alamin99) are doing to support this coin, like buying the domain. I strongly suggest you do what you suggested, which is mine it through NiceHash, because you have a real profit opportunity here while the coin is undervalued due to its young age. If people are willing to sell IRD to you at the NiceHash mining price, they are way undervaluing the coin, so you should buy them out but they will regret it in a month (and if they want to sell NiceHash prices, they should just sell their GPU power to NiceHash). hello!!! thank you for explanation! What you have said, I am agreed with that. btw, I hope this coin will do very good in future. But there are some other factors too. If only miners hold all of the coins, then it won't do any good. Every coin needs some investors who will collect coins from miners and decide the price in future. If a coin doesn't get any investor, it will die slowly. I highly support Iridium project. That's why I want to buy all coins from those miners who will dump as soon as it get listed on exchanges. And mining on nicehash is quite complex. That's why I want to use my money to buy it, not mining it. Also, if a miner sells at higher rate than nicehash, then he may buy more hashpower with the profit and get more coins. |
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Windozxpert
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September 11, 2017, 05:32:00 PM |
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hello!!! thank you for explanation! What you have said, I am agreed with that. btw, I hope this coin will do very good in future. But there are some other factors too. If only miners hold all of the coins, then it won't do any good. Every coin needs some investors who will collect coins from miners and decide the price in future. If a coin doesn't get any investor, it will die slowly. I highly support Iridium project. That's why I want to buy all coins from those miners who will dump as soon as it get listed on exchanges. And mining on nicehash is quite complex. That's why I want to use my money to buy it, not mining it. Also, if a miner sells at higher rate than nicehash, then he may buy more hashpower with the profit and get more coins.
You highly support the coin hu?.... I will sell you 1,000 IRD for 46,786,000 Satoshi. That's an amazing deal at $2.00 USD per IRD. Deal? |
There's no I in team, but there is a "Me" if you jumble it up. ~ House, M.D.
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garytheasshole
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September 11, 2017, 05:38:02 PM |
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hello!!! thank you for explanation! What you have said, I am agreed with that. btw, I hope this coin will do very good in future. But there are some other factors too. If only miners hold all of the coins, then it won't do any good. Every coin needs some investors who will collect coins from miners and decide the price in future. If a coin doesn't get any investor, it will die slowly. I highly support Iridium project. That's why I want to buy all coins from those miners who will dump as soon as it get listed on exchanges. And mining on nicehash is quite complex. That's why I want to use my money to buy it, not mining it. Also, if a miner sells at higher rate than nicehash, then he may buy more hashpower with the profit and get more coins.
You highly support the coin hu?.... I will sell you 1,000 IRD for 46,786,000 Satoshi. That's an amazing deal at $2.00 USD per IRD. Deal? I'll take them if you include 5 highend GPUs  |
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Windozxpert
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September 11, 2017, 05:43:23 PM |
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hello!!! thank you for explanation! What you have said, I am agreed with that. btw, I hope this coin will do very good in future. But there are some other factors too. If only miners hold all of the coins, then it won't do any good. Every coin needs some investors who will collect coins from miners and decide the price in future. If a coin doesn't get any investor, it will die slowly. I highly support Iridium project. That's why I want to buy all coins from those miners who will dump as soon as it get listed on exchanges. And mining on nicehash is quite complex. That's why I want to use my money to buy it, not mining it. Also, if a miner sells at higher rate than nicehash, then he may buy more hashpower with the profit and get more coins.
You highly support the coin hu?.... I will sell you 1,000 IRD for 46,786,000 Satoshi. That's an amazing deal at $2.00 USD per IRD. Deal? I'll take them if you include 5 highend GPUs Deal. You failed to specify what time period the GPUs had to be "highend". 5 Sapphire HD 2600 Pros are coming your way. God, I loved 2008. |
There's no I in team, but there is a "Me" if you jumble it up. ~ House, M.D.
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iridiumdev (OP)
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September 11, 2017, 05:45:41 PM |
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mining the coin, when the miner starts is really fast a the submitted shares are a lot, but after go slower.. when the target go up... why? thanks
The difficulty that pools set increases to match your hardware to prevent the pools network getting spammed with low diff shares, it keeps the network running without delay, similar to preventing a ddos attack. |
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Windozxpert
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September 11, 2017, 05:46:47 PM |
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Network Hashrate: 179.70 Kh/sec http://ird.globalpool.cc: Hashrate 173.8 Kh/s Is this correct? |
There's no I in team, but there is a "Me" if you jumble it up. ~ House, M.D.
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varava1990
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September 11, 2017, 05:53:45 PM |
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HELP!!!!!
Yesterday I installed a purse on the computer desktop. I ran it with the help of the administrator. and began to mine to his address. today I launch a purse, it starts up as a new one with a completely different address and my coins do not.
where can I find an old purse and return the coins?
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dunedainbob
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September 11, 2017, 06:04:56 PM |
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I don't think so. This pool earlier was showing nethash too high, until a correction was implemented:
I review source code , const uint64_t DIFFICULTY_TARGET = 175; // seconds
Our pool Adjust parameters. thinks all.
I think it is possible he implemented this correction to the network hash, but not his pool hash. So his pool hash is still over-inflated a little. |
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garytheasshole
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September 11, 2017, 06:08:23 PM |
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HELP!!!!!
Yesterday I installed a purse on the computer desktop. I ran it with the help of the administrator. and began to mine to his address. today I launch a purse, it starts up as a new one with a completely different address and my coins do not.
where can I find an old purse and return the coins?
Do you get different address when you launch the wallet as administrator or regular user? |
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varava1990
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September 11, 2017, 06:15:59 PM |
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HELP!!!!!
Yesterday I installed a purse on the computer desktop. I ran it with the help of the administrator. and began to mine to his address. today I launch a purse, it starts up as a new one with a completely different address and my coins do not.
where can I find an old purse and return the coins?
Do you get different address when you launch the wallet as administrator or regular user? as an administrator. as a normal user wallet does not start. writes the error "the wallet is already running" |
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garytheasshole
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September 11, 2017, 06:19:20 PM |
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HELP!!!!!
Yesterday I installed a purse on the computer desktop. I ran it with the help of the administrator. and began to mine to his address. today I launch a purse, it starts up as a new one with a completely different address and my coins do not.
where can I find an old purse and return the coins?
Do you get different address when you launch the wallet as administrator or regular user? as an administrator. as a normal user wallet does not start. writes the error "the wallet is already running" Search everywhere for Iridiumwallet.wallet hidden dirs the lot. What windows is this? If you can't find the Iridiumwallet.wallet file with your coins you're shit out of luck my friend. The default location is %APPDATA%\Iridium no idea what the %appdata% directory for administrator is, windows ain't my cup of tea. |
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Obormotik
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September 11, 2017, 06:23:47 PM |
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HELP!!!!!
Yesterday I installed a purse on the computer desktop. I ran it with the help of the administrator. and began to mine to his address. today I launch a purse, it starts up as a new one with a completely different address and my coins do not.
where can I find an old purse and return the coins?
Do you get different address when you launch the wallet as administrator or regular user? as an administrator. as a normal user wallet does not start. writes the error "the wallet is already running" Search everywhere for Iridiumwallet.wallet hidden dirs the lot. What windows is this? If you can't find the Iridiumwallet.wallet file with your coins you're shit out of luck my friend. The default location is %APPDATA%\Iridium no idea what the %appdata% directory for administrator is, windows ain't my cup of tea. I confirm. I also lost all the coins, because the wallet overwrites the configuration on restart, and generates a new address. Moreover, it creates folders with not printable symbols (red arrows) not in the user's profile (black arrow) (I have an operating system with Cyrillic support) https://i.imgur.com/kMlpbPB.png |
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