Be careful. (Newbies and others ...)

[sicparvismagna]

Yeah before we make our own judgement into something we do not rush and make hasty decision investing is a learning process you study what is present in the environment make an analysis and if the observation is positive then that will the only time I make a decision. I don't take immediate if you invest make a necessary precautious step first to mitigate risk and make a valuable decision you would not regret.

[d5000]

Bitcoin has finally reached another bullish "leg" - so there was no bounce. I think it was caused by the expectation of "free money" having two forks lying ahead of us.

But nevertheless, I want to renew my call for "carefulness". It would really be "too good to be true" if Bitcoin went now straight into the 8K-10K zone. My guess is that $6000 are possible, $7000 are already unlikely, and $8000 almost impossible - in 2017, and maybe also 2018.

I would even not be surprised if we saw major price turbulences (and a possible crash) in November near the Segwit2x fork date. Reason.

[n0ne]

However user keeps him active, one cannot easily get rid of or minimize the loss, because the price moves happen in a short without any prior notification. So need to try making the profit out of it, but the same when doesn't give success just focus on holding and use the right opportunity in future. Some sells suddenly without thinking anything which is not good decision.

[pearlmen]

At this time,  its very much OK to start exercising some element of skepticism as to what will happen to either price or bitcoin itself. From my point of view, I see some restrictions being happening between $5000+ but if the impending fork becomes a success, we can then see a further breakthrough beyond the $6000 mark.

[franco123]

After reading a lot of perma-bullish postings in this speculation forum, I only want to issue a little warning. Not as a professional trader, but a guy that has been here since 2013.

Be careful! I think we are near the top of a bubble. Don't invest what you cannot afford to lose.

That is valid for Bitcoin and most altcoins at the same time. I think we have overheated - mostly due to the speculation on the Segwit activation - and now we must go down a bit. Probably the rest of the year will be bearish or a sideways market.

What doesn't that "warning" mean?
- It doesn't mean that Bitcoin will go instantly to zero. My prediction is that it will go to $3000, until late October but then, depending on the news, we can go lower (in a worst case scenario, to about $1000).
- It doesn't even mean that $4970 was the top (although I consider it likely). There could be another bullish "leg". But it will most likely be the last one of the year, and I don't think it will reach $10.000.
- It does not mean that "Bitcoin is a bubble". Bitcoin is useful and a great project. But it cannot increase permanently in price. Sometimes there is profit taking, or also a little bit of panic.

Why do I think that the "bubble" ended?
- Bitcoin's price has increased about 30 times in this bullish cycle which started in late 2014 at $135. That is HUGE.
- Adoption by retailers and other real world shops has not increased according to the price increase (in fact, I think we're at the same level than in 2013/14).
- China has strongly restricted ICOs a few days ago. That will lower the demand a bit, although it's not catastrophic, maybe.
- In November, there could be a dangerous hard fork, separating the main development team (Bitcoin Core) from a large part of the Bitcoin economy (miners, Bitpay, Coinbase) on different chains.

Draw your own conclusions. I'm a bit in bearish mood now. I'm still a long term bull

I couldn't agree more. Everything in today's time affects all the other investments. And Bitcoin is one of the volatile investment considering that it is not yet totally acceptable by the government.

One thing to remember is the price ceiling concept. As sir said, there may come a time that a bubble might pop and everyone will panic sellin on Bitcoins. This will happen usually when the price ceiling will hit and the price can only go low then.

[arbitrage]

From the start BTC was surrounded with speculations and this is perfectly normal. Whatever happens until the end of the year, but I hope BTC won't fall down like OP said, but more likely we will see 10k. When you see all those attacks on BTC you can feel how BTC becoming dangerous and they are starting to believe more than we do.  BTC is evil actually and can destroy their order.

[ekoice]

I think that you are taking the situation a little bit more serious.I do agree that we have been in bullish trend for more time continuously,despite of china's actions against bitcoin.I don't understand how you give that much importance to bitcoin gold hard fork when it does not have miners support and no exchanges or wallets have till now extended their support to it.It would have very little significance when compared to bitcoin cash which was supported by mining pools and bittrex exchange.So definitely,it would have a very small impact on bitcoin's price.

But i too have to agree with your prediction about segwit 2x activation that it may create big negative effects in the bitcoin environment.Even though F2Pool and two other pools have withdrawn support for segwit 2x,still it has 85% of miners support and that's an alarming signal  about bitcoin's price drop at that time.So,bitcoin investors would have to be very careful at that time.

[STEVEN 888]

most of posts now turned into say price may be rise more than 6,000$ this will engage newbie

[alyssa85]

There might be some profit taking after October 25th, when people realise that no exchange uis going to list bitcoingold.

As for the segwit2x thing - if there is a genuine consensus am, there won't be two chains, it will simply switch to 2x.

[Slow death]

...no exchange uis going to list bitcoingold.

already exists exchange for bitcoin gold, yobit already announced this:

"  Yobit.Net‏ @YobitExchange  2 hhá 2 horas

Bitcoin Gold balances will be added in 68 hrs (23 oct, monday), timer: https://yobit.net/en/bitcoingold/timer …
BTC deps/wds will be disabled in 65 hrs. "

As for the segwit2x thing - if there is a genuine consensus am, there won't be two chains, it will simply switch to 2x.

this is impossible

Beware of Bitcoin's possible incompatibility with some major services
11 Octob


I hope I do not see $1000 again.

[Bram 666]

After bitcoin  price break 6,000$ all will buy more from it

[arbitrage]

...no exchange uis going to list bitcoingold.

already exists exchange for bitcoin gold, yobit already announced this:

"  Yobit.Net‏ @YobitExchange  2 hhá 2 horas

Bitcoin Gold balances will be added in 68 hrs (23 oct, monday), timer: https://yobit.net/en/bitcoingold/timer …
BTC deps/wds will be disabled in 65 hrs. "

As for the segwit2x thing - if there is a genuine consensus am, there won't be two chains, it will simply switch to 2x.

this is impossible

Beware of Bitcoin's possible incompatibility with some major services
11 Octob


I hope I do not see $1000 again.

Yobit will do it again just it was case with Lisk. If you remember they have started trade LISK which still was not delivered to its investors. This is wrong, and they are preparing to do this again, but this time this is much more dangerous, and they know that they will get more money. They are no longer in list of my favorite places..This speculative trade is hazardous and promoting BTC demise, purposely or not this is wrong and whales groups which supporting this new coin will make damage to us all.

[orions.belt19]

I 100% agree with you.

In bubbles people are often led into thinking that bitcoin price will continue to go up no matter what, and it is actually not a bubble at all. I personally think that this is ridiculous, as this amount of growth is simply not sustainable and must come to an end soon.

We are still pretty high up, even though we corrected from $5000 to $4500. I think that $3000 by end of October could be a very likely scenario. Though, i think we are going to retest the $5k level before people start dumping still.

Investors are free to do whatever they like, but just remember that this is a bubble, and it is good to be rational in a bubble and not follow the hype.

A lot of people has been saying that bitcoin is a bubble for so long, especially when the price goes down or dips. I somewhat agree with OP's reasoning in the end of the bitcoin bubble. However, I do not agree that China's ICO ban and decision has played a part in it.

We are entitled to our own opinions and each one may deduce different conclusions by looking at the recent happenings and with different views. As in investor, I'd like to agree with OP and have the same view because I intend my investment on bitcoin to be long term.

[holdingkrypto]

OP and all people thinking that it is speculation or it is a bubble: your problem is that you are just looking at the charts because you are just speculators. Bitcoin is much more than that. It is not a speculative tool. It is a completely new technology that will change entire sectors and, since it will only spread more and more, it will reach much higher prices.

[jubalix]

What you say is reasonable....its just hard to say where is the top and what is the bottom.....you just don't know with BTC and there is no precedent.

Also I feel that the people whole sell out are less with every cycle, as their HODL is rewarded and the HODL are selected for.


New entrants can buy a lot less BTC now for a Lot more $$$, and so can dump not so much.

[yefi]

Be careful: just because you've been here since 2013 and experienced a bubble, doesn't mean you're equipped or entitled to predict the top.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

After reading a lot of perma-bullish postings in this speculation forum, I only want to issue a little warning. Not as a professional trader, but a guy that has been here since 2013.

Be careful! I think we are near the top of a bubble. Don't invest what you cannot afford to lose.

That is valid for Bitcoin and most altcoins at the same time. I think we have overheated - mostly due to the speculation on the Segwit activation - and now we must go down a bit. Probably the rest of the year will be bearish or a sideways market.

What doesn't that "warning" mean?
- It doesn't mean that Bitcoin will go instantly to zero. My prediction is that it will go to $3000, until late October but then, depending on the news, we can go lower (in a worst case scenario, to about $1000).
- It doesn't even mean that $4970 was the top (although I consider it likely). There could be another bullish "leg". But it will most likely be the last one of the year, and I don't think it will reach $10.000.
- It does not mean that "Bitcoin is a bubble". Bitcoin is useful and a great project. But it cannot increase permanently in price. Sometimes there is profit taking, or also a little bit of panic.

Why do I think that the "bubble" ended?
- Bitcoin's price has increased about 30 times in this bullish cycle which started in late 2014 at $135. That is HUGE.
- Adoption by retailers and other real world shops has not increased according to the price increase (in fact, I think we're at the same level than in 2013/14).
- China has strongly restricted ICOs a few days ago. That will lower the demand a bit, although it's not catastrophic, maybe.
- In November, there could be a dangerous hard fork, separating the main development team (Bitcoin Core) from a large part of the Bitcoin economy (miners, Bitpay, Coinbase) on different chains.

Draw your own conclusions. I'm a bit in bearish mood now. I'm still a long term bull

I think the moral of this post is that we see a lot of people in this forum, especially newbies, getting too excited about rising prices. Those are the first to panic and sell after the first dip. This is a highly volatile market and it is even more volatile for most altcoins. Every investor should be aware of that and not be surprised if it goes down as fast as it goes up.

[MidKnight]

After reading a lot of perma-bullish postings in this speculation forum, I only want to issue a little warning. Not as a professional trader, but a guy that has been here since 2013.

Be careful! I think we are near the top of a bubble. Don't invest what you cannot afford to lose.

That is valid for Bitcoin and most altcoins at the same time. I think we have overheated - mostly due to the speculation on the Segwit activation - and now we must go down a bit. Probably the rest of the year will be bearish or a sideways market.

What doesn't that "warning" mean?
- It doesn't mean that Bitcoin will go instantly to zero. My prediction is that it will go to $3000, until late October but then, depending on the news, we can go lower (in a worst case scenario, to about $1000).
- It doesn't even mean that $4970 was the top (although I consider it likely). There could be another bullish "leg". But it will most likely be the last one of the year, and I don't think it will reach $10.000.
- It does not mean that "Bitcoin is a bubble". Bitcoin is useful and a great project. But it cannot increase permanently in price. Sometimes there is profit taking, or also a little bit of panic.

Why do I think that the "bubble" ended?
- Bitcoin's price has increased about 30 times in this bullish cycle which started in late 2014 at $135. That is HUGE.
- Adoption by retailers and other real world shops has not increased according to the price increase (in fact, I think we're at the same level than in 2013/14).
- China has strongly restricted ICOs a few days ago. That will lower the demand a bit, although it's not catastrophic, maybe.
- In November, there could be a dangerous hard fork, separating the main development team (Bitcoin Core) from a large part of the Bitcoin economy (miners, Bitpay, Coinbase) on different chains.

Draw your own conclusions. I'm a bit in bearish mood now. I'm still a long term bull

I think the moral of this post is that we see a lot of people in this forum, especially newbies, getting too excited about rising prices. Those are the first to panic and sell after the first dip. This is a highly volatile market and it is even more volatile for most altcoins. Every investor should be aware of that and not be surprised if it goes down as fast as it goes up.

Newbies are mostly the types who are in a hurry to make much money without thinking.  It happened to me when I was starting and had no idea about everything so I hope they'll avoid those kinds of wrong practices.

[Budugbass]

After bitcoin  price break 6,000$ all will buy more from it

Yes you're right, I also thinking like that.. surely most people will take advantage of the situation when the price break from $6000 that's a time to buy, because indeed surely bitcoin price will still be able to reach $6000 again, even it could be more from $6000.

[markjamrobin]

most of posts now turned into say price may be rise more than 6,000$ this will engage newbie

Yes, this can be a way to attract investment from inexperienced people, but in my opinion, bitcoin is absolutely primed for sustainable development, so do not worry. If you do not want to invest in bitcoin, keep your money, waiting for what will happen.