Be careful. (Newbies and others ...)

[d5000]

After reading a lot of perma-bullish postings in this speculation forum, I only want to issue a little warning. Not as a professional trader, but a guy that has been here since 2013.

Be careful! I think we are near the top of a bubble. Don't invest what you cannot afford to lose.

That is valid for Bitcoin and most altcoins at the same time. I think we have overheated - mostly due to the speculation on the Segwit activation - and now we must go down a bit. Probably the rest of the year will be bearish or a sideways market.

What doesn't that "warning" mean?
- It doesn't mean that Bitcoin will go instantly to zero. My prediction is that it will go to $3000, until late October but then, depending on the news, we can go lower (in a worst case scenario, to about $1000).
- It doesn't even mean that $4970 was the top (although I consider it likely). There could be another bullish "leg". But it will most likely be the last one of the year, and I don't think it will reach $10.000.
- It does not mean that "Bitcoin is a bubble". Bitcoin is useful and a great project. But it cannot increase permanently in price. Sometimes there is profit taking, or also a little bit of panic.

Why do I think that the "bubble" ended?
- Bitcoin's price has increased about 30 times in this bullish cycle which started in late 2014 at $135. That is HUGE.
- Adoption by retailers and other real world shops has not increased according to the price increase (in fact, I think we're at the same level than in 2013/14).
- China has strongly restricted ICOs a few days ago. That will lower the demand a bit, although it's not catastrophic, maybe.
- In November, there could be a dangerous hard fork, separating the main development team (Bitcoin Core) from a large part of the Bitcoin economy (miners, Bitpay, Coinbase) on different chains.

Draw your own conclusions. I'm a bit in bearish mood now. I'm still a long term bull

[1714180401]

1714180401

[1714180401]

1714180401

[1714180401]

1714180401

[kwukduck]

People won't like what you have to say here.
You'll be shunned and ridiculed.
.

[Saoha]

After reading a lot of perma-bullish postings in this speculation forum, I only want to issue a little warning. Not as a professional trader, but a guy that has been here since 2013.

Be careful! I think we are near the top of a bubble. Don't invest what you cannot afford to lose.

That is valid for Bitcoin and most altcoins at the same time. I think we have overheated - mostly due to the speculation on the Segwit activation - and now we must go down a bit. Probably the rest of the year will be bearish or a sideways market.

What doesn't that "warning" mean?
- It doesn't mean that Bitcoin will go instantly to zero. My prediction is that it will go to $3000, until late October but then, depending on the news, we can go lower (in a worst case scenario, to about $1000).
- It doesn't even mean that $4970 was the top (although I consider it likely). There could be another bullish "leg". But it will most likely be the last one of the year, and I don't think it will reach $10.000.
- It does not mean that "Bitcoin is a bubble". Bitcoin is useful and a great project. But it cannot increase permanently in price. Sometimes there is profit taking, or also a little bit of panic.

Why do I think that the "bubble" ended?
- Bitcoin's price has increased about 30 times in this bullish cycle which started in late 2014 at $135. That is HUGE.
- Adoption by retailers and other real world shops has not increased according to the price increase (in fact, I think we're at the same level than in 2013/14).
- China has strongly restricted ICOs a few days ago. That will lower the demand a bit, although it's not catastrophic, maybe.
- In November, there could be a dangerous hard fork, separating the main development team (Bitcoin Core) from a large part of the Bitcoin economy (miners, Bitpay, Coinbase) on different chains.

Draw your own conclusions. I'm a bit in bearish mood now. I'm still a long term bull

Your thoughts are also logical. However, we can only speculate, it is impossible to predict how the market will be - especially the bitcoin value is quite erratic. Bitcoin is the current Kingcoin, which has confirmed its position and potential since its inception. It will be hard to down to $ 1000 as you think. $ 3000 can happen ( hard) though I do not want to, because Bitcoin is becoming more and more familiar and fixing its downsides!

[Kyraishi]

I 100% agree with you.

In bubbles people are often led into thinking that bitcoin price will continue to go up no matter what, and it is actually not a bubble at all. I personally think that this is ridiculous, as this amount of growth is simply not sustainable and must come to an end soon.

We are still pretty high up, even though we corrected from $5000 to $4500. I think that $3000 by end of October could be a very likely scenario. Though, i think we are going to retest the $5k level before people start dumping still.

Investors are free to do whatever they like, but just remember that this is a bubble, and it is good to be rational in a bubble and not follow the hype.

[pornluver]

I 100% agree with you.

In bubbles people are often led into thinking that bitcoin price will continue to go up no matter what, and it is actually not a bubble at all. I personally think that this is ridiculous, as this amount of growth is simply not sustainable and must come to an end soon.

We are still pretty high up, even though we corrected from $5000 to $4500. I think that $3000 by end of October could be a very likely scenario. Though, i think we are going to retest the $5k level before people start dumping still.

Investors are free to do whatever they like, but just remember that this is a bubble, and it is good to be rational in a bubble and not follow the hype.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2158106.0

I said the same thing.

Goldman sach says it will be $3k

Some says it'll be $2.2k

Also interest rate in poloniex is down. I don't feel like lending money there anymore.

I am doing USDT.

[HeRetiK]

Excellent post and I fully agree with OP.

Keeping a level head and having realistic expectations is important for the community. The more people kick common sense out of the door, the more likely it is for Bitcoin to spectacularly crash. The harder Bitcoin crashes, the longer it will take for the market (including alt coins) to recover.

So stay safe out there, fellow Bitcoiners and crypto-enthusiasts! Don't let yourself go into a bubble mania when the price rises and keep calm when the big dumps come!

[...]

I am doing USDT.

USDT is a ticking timebomb, be careful with that. I wouldn't be surprised if the next major crypto crash / bear market would get triggered by USDT running fractional.

[Febo]

Draw your own conclusions. I'm a bit in bearish mood now. I'm still a long term bull

So say it that way.

Dont invest what you will need next year. Invest what you will need in 5-10 years.  It is so simple. 

And word investing dont mean playing with your money and selling and buying. No. It is just buy and keep it safe. Nothing else. Perfect for lazy people like me.

[BitcoinNewsMagazine]

People tend to forget that all bull market cycles end eventually followed by a painful bear market. The question is where are we now? Take a look at the monthly Bitcoin price on Bitstamp:



We have our first red monthly candle. I explained in this article how $4400 marked an important top in bitcoin price and showed that $7000 was possible but not very likely.

I think the top for this bull cycle is in at $5000. The uncertainty about the November SegWit2X hard fork and the success of Bitcoin Cash could lead to a 50% drop anytime. We just need some bad news, a catalyst for traders to exit. If we enter a bear market expect price to drop to $1200 to $2000 and last for twelve to eighteen months.

Bitcoin has had a very good run from $152 to $5000. You really should be selling now not buying. Maybe keep 20% of your bitcoin but only what you feel comfortable holding through a bear market.

[ragnar0k]

So, a couple of points that were not considered
1- ETF: if it gets approved we might easily go to 10k
2- Bearish market: I don't think we know where we are... Countries are legalizing bitcoins as we speak and the only real crash we had was because infrastructure at the time was pathetic (I mined a bit but I lost the coins when the hard drive died, don't think there was even a reliable wallet back then without downloading the full blockchain)
3- Market standard: The current bubble is high for bitcoin standards, but we are a long shot from wall street standards...
4- Financial attention: We might get into trade market. Russia is looking into this and US might get there too... First lobbies are starting to form on a government level for bitcoin support


You might be right though, we might be near the end (specially given the fork), but if I look on tradingview, and all people trying to predict anything with TA, it is a bit of a tragedy. I like to click play and see what people predicted in the past re. to bitcoin and a 50% success ratio is quite an achievement there. I am just trying to say that there seems to be no real way to tell what to do next...

I'll be holding for the moment, if it goes flat to 3k so be it
I hope bc will wake up again in a couple of years if so.

[Edited]
Regarding the fact that shops did not increase since 2013... Please take a look here
https://coinmap.org/#/world/30.90222471/22.14843750/2

[iamTom123]

I am looking at both sides of the equation when deciding on anything. Now, one thing for sure, whether we are more inclined to believe the bubble burst warning or the more optimistic continual rise, these are all speculations and there is no guarantee that the details will really happen.

Of course, it is always good to be forewarned (so we can be forearmed) but I still believe that after November there are more things to look forward to for Bitcoin by next year. Who knows...2018 can be the banner year for Bitcoin and the prediction that it can be reaching $10,000 might come true.

[alyssa85]

Good post. The following comment of yours is key:

- Adoption by retailers and other real world shops has not increased according to the price increase (in fact, I think we're at the same level than in 2013/14).

Without adoption it's pointless, and is just a ponzi where people pile in, hoping to then sell their coins to other people for more money.

[Eternu]

I think that everything you said could happen, i mean it is not impossible. I have also heard that there will be some new fork, but i did not know the details about it, that i will have to check a bit more. Yes it is totally understandable that after this much rising in price, there needs to be a down fall a bit too. How much it will fall, i do not think we can predict for certain, but it will happen. My opinion is that what ever comes bitcoin will survive.

[HeRetiK]

A few counterpoints to ragnar0k's additions:

So, a couple of points that were not considered
1- ETF: if it gets approved we might easily go to 10k

Most likely already priced in, unfortunately, so might not help us short term. In the long term however, very bullish of course.

2- Bearish market: I don't think we know where we are... Countries are legalizing bitcoins as we speak and the only real crash we had was because infrastructure at the time was pathetic (I mined a bit but I lost the coins when the hard drive died, don't think there was even a reliable wallet back then without downloading the full blockchain)

The infrastructure has come a looong way since 2013, that is very true. However definitely not the only reason for the crashes of days of yore.

3- Market standard: The current bubble is high for bitcoin standards, but we are a long shot from wall street standards...

What do you mean?

Regarding yield I don't think any wall street stock has seen growth like Bitcoin in such a short timeframe, not even during times of bubble.

Regarding market cap Bitcoin is already in the ball park of S&P 500 companies. Unless you mean the whole market of course

4- Financial attention: We might get into trade market. Russia is looking into this and US might get there too... First lobbies are starting to form on a government level for bitcoin support

I believe it when I see it. But true, things are moving in the right direction.

[Pearls Before Swine]

I agree and have said so in other threads,  but somehow I don't  think
we've hit the top yet. I say that because bitcoin didn't drop nearly
as much as I thought it would when we got the latest correction. I
figured we'd drop to the $3000s or lower, and that didn't happen.

The market is still bullish, but we are due for a serious drop.  I don't have
the stomach to short it.

[maokoto]

What you write makes a lots of sense and sounds very reasonable. But markets tend to move more by emotions than by reason. I would not be surprised if it went down a lot, but neither if it raised much too.

[Xavofat]

Interesting.  Most of the posts here are actually quite reasonable.  That could suggest that the bear market is getting closer, because the general sentiment isn't favouring crazy short-term predictions of >$10000.

People won't like what you have to say here.
You'll be shunned and ridiculed.

There's a clear gap between a reasonable warning that is being given here and your points, which are just the same claim that Bitcoin will crash extremely soon.

You always post exactly the same thing no matter how far the price has actually gone up.  Go back two years and look at yourself.

[xFiber]

After reading a lot of perma-bullish postings in this speculation forum, I only want to issue a little warning. Not as a professional trader, but a guy that has been here since 2013.

Be careful! I think we are near the top of a bubble. Don't invest what you cannot afford to lose.

That is valid for Bitcoin and most altcoins at the same time. I think we have overheated - mostly due to the speculation on the Segwit activation - and now we must go down a bit. Probably the rest of the year will be bearish or a sideways market.

What doesn't that "warning" mean?
- It doesn't mean that Bitcoin will go instantly to zero. My prediction is that it will go to $3000, until late October but then, depending on the news, we can go lower (in a worst case scenario, to about $1000).
- It doesn't even mean that $4970 was the top (although I consider it likely). There could be another bullish "leg". But it will most likely be the last one of the year, and I don't think it will reach $10.000.
- It does not mean that "Bitcoin is a bubble". Bitcoin is useful and a great project. But it cannot increase permanently in price. Sometimes there is profit taking, or also a little bit of panic.

Why do I think that the "bubble" ended?
- Bitcoin's price has increased about 30 times in this bullish cycle which started in late 2014 at $135. That is HUGE.
- Adoption by retailers and other real world shops has not increased according to the price increase (in fact, I think we're at the same level than in 2013/14).
- China has strongly restricted ICOs a few days ago. That will lower the demand a bit, although it's not catastrophic, maybe.
- In November, there could be a dangerous hard fork, separating the main development team (Bitcoin Core) from a large part of the Bitcoin economy (miners, Bitpay, Coinbase) on different chains.

Draw your own conclusions. I'm a bit in bearish mood now. I'm still a long term bull

I almost entirely agree with you however I wouldn' call this a bubble yet. I think we hit the top of a big bull run that has been running since 2014. Maybe we will make one final push before we see a major 50% drop. I feel like a bearish market is necessary at some point but I'm also strongly bullish for the long term.

[Torque]

[alyssa85]

What you write makes a lots of sense and sounds very reasonable. But markets tend to move more by emotions than by reason. I would not be surprised if it went down a lot, but neither if it raised much too.

There are lots of noobs coming in, convinced that bitcoin will make them millionaires. And towards the top of a bubble, you often get this emotional uninformed money pushing it up the final leg.

[carlisle1]

I think with this post I will start assessing if how long I can hold my bitcoin savings since there's a lots of possibilities that this statement will happen anytime soon
and with the current earnings that I've got maybe its better to exchange the half of it into fiat for some assurance then the other half can be stored inside my btc
wallet for long term hold.

[ragnar0k]

1- ETF: if it gets approved we might easily go to 10k

Most likely already priced in, unfortunately, so might not help us short term. In the long term however, very bullish of course.

Yes, but there is a big reputation gain if and when it will get approved. Maybe you are right, it will improve over time

The infrastructure has come a looong way since 2013, that is very true. However definitely not the only reason for the crashes of days of yore.

Don't forget localization. in 2013 if my memory serves me right was almost non existent (english or die)

Regarding market cap Bitcoin is already in the ball park of S&P 500 companies. Unless you mean the whole market of course

I am thinking in terms of .com bubble. During that time there were some pretty crappy companies that had much less usage and utility than bitcoin with billions of market cap. Not comparable to our crypto space, where just a handful pass the billion. And regarding the growth, don't forget BC never had an 'IPO' or an analyst that said... this should start from 5000$. It started from 0...With 0 investments.

For the rest I guess mine are only opinions to balance the overly pessimistic view of the OP (which might well happen). But when I hear that bitcoin will go down to 200$ I can't but think that there is a bit of schadenfreude (again to use the op language) because noobs (including me as I never really invested in bc before) did not pass those painful 3 years.

[joseafonso123az]

After reading a lot of perma-bullish postings in this speculation forum, I only want to issue a little warning. Not as a professional trader, but a guy that has been here since 2013.

Be careful! I think we are near the top of a bubble. Don't invest what you cannot afford to lose.

That is valid for Bitcoin and most altcoins at the same time. I think we have overheated - mostly due to the speculation on the Segwit activation - and now we must go down a bit. Probably the rest of the year will be bearish or a sideways market.

What doesn't that "warning" mean?
- It doesn't mean that Bitcoin will go instantly to zero. My prediction is that it will go to $3000, until late October but then, depending on the news, we can go lower (in a worst case scenario, to about $1000).
- It doesn't even mean that $4970 was the top (although I consider it likely). There could be another bullish "leg". But it will most likely be the last one of the year, and I don't think it will reach $10.000.
- It does not mean that "Bitcoin is a bubble". Bitcoin is useful and a great project. But it cannot increase permanently in price. Sometimes there is profit taking, or also a little bit of panic.

Why do I think that the "bubble" ended?
- Bitcoin's price has increased about 30 times in this bullish cycle which started in late 2014 at $135. That is HUGE.
- Adoption by retailers and other real world shops has not increased according to the price increase (in fact, I think we're at the same level than in 2013/14).
- China has strongly restricted ICOs a few days ago. That will lower the demand a bit, although it's not catastrophic, maybe.
- In November, there could be a dangerous hard fork, separating the main development team (Bitcoin Core) from a large part of the Bitcoin economy (miners, Bitpay, Coinbase) on different chains.

Draw your own conclusions. I'm a bit in bearish mood now. I'm still a long term bull

Well your bearish mood might have some logic, but as it is a bubble everything we say is only a prediction that my or may not happen.
News, illegal activities, banning affects the value of bitcoin, and almost always decreases it's value. But sometimes, this decrease in value happens because of the market correction. I guess until the hard fork bitcoin might stay between $3000- $5000 and after that, depending on what the results will be of the hard fork, there will be some, and maybe drastic change in the value of bitcoin.

[Oceat]

Draw your own conclusions. I'm a bit in bearish mood now. I'm still a long term bull

So say it that way.

Dont invest what you will need next year. Invest what you will need in 5-10 years.  It is so simple. 

And word investing dont mean playing with your money and selling and buying. No. It is just buy and keep it safe. Nothing else. Perfect for lazy people like me.

"Perfect for lazy people like me." So am i too? lol

Investing in a long term will keep your money safe, in fact you won't have to worry because you were just hiding your money. All you need to do is just keep your pace and watch until the price go doubled then sell.

[CrownPolly]

- Bitcoin's price has increased about 30 times in this bullish cycle which started in late 2014 at $135. That is HUGE.

- China has strongly restricted ICOs a few days ago. That will lower the demand a bit, although it's not catastrophic, maybe.
- In November, there could be a dangerous hard fork, separating the main development team (Bitcoin Core) from a large part of the Bitcoin economy (miners, Bitpay, Coinbase) on different chains.

The increase in value is 30 times - this is a fantastic phenomenon for the currency of the currency, but not for the crypto currency. Bitcoin has more than once proved the fact that he is developing not like Fiat.

And its development is due to ubiquitous legalization. This was the reason for the price increase.

And I agree with you that the price may decrease because of the next plug we are waiting for in November. But I do not think that it will be significantly

[1Referee]

People won't like what you have to say here.
You'll be shunned and ridiculed.
.

People don't like what YOU have to say, so don't try to put a contributing member into the same category as yourself. I quite enjoy reading what d5000 has to say, because after all, it makes sense most of the times. Everyone has his own view on this market, and thus far there haven't been many people in this forum actually pointing out their thoughts in detail. People here have been spoiled with insane increases, and this is obviously a great thing for those having invested early enough, but it can't endlessly keep increasing without falling back heavily at some point. I personally don't really like using the term bearish, which is why I stick to using the term conservative, this till we know how things will play out in November.

[Duzter]

People need to be confident, but should not be over confidence. This will be serving as an issue not only with bitcoin, but the same thinking prevails throughout. So as mentioned invest what you can afford is the right pick than just on over expectations as well over confidence of trying to express themselves high.

[HeRetiK]

1- ETF: if it gets approved we might easily go to 10k

Most likely already priced in, unfortunately, so might not help us short term. In the long term however, very bullish of course.

Yes, but there is a big reputation gain if and when it will get approved. Maybe you are right, it will improve over time

The infrastructure has come a looong way since 2013, that is very true. However definitely not the only reason for the crashes of days of yore.

Don't forget localization. in 2013 if my memory serves me right was almost non existent (english or die)

Regarding market cap Bitcoin is already in the ball park of S&P 500 companies. Unless you mean the whole market of course

I am thinking in terms of .com bubble. During that time there were some pretty crappy companies that had much less usage and utility than bitcoin with billions of market cap. Not comparable to our crypto space, where just a handful pass the billion. And regarding the growth, don't forget BC never had an 'IPO' or an analyst that said... this should start from 5000$. It started from 0...With 0 investments.

Good points. Keep in mind that crypto has its own little dot-com bubble of crappy companies right now (*cough* ICOs *cough*). I'm positive that the long-term effect on Bitcoin itself will be limited though.

For the rest I guess mine are only opinions to balance the overly pessimistic view of the OP (which might well happen). But when I hear that bitcoin will go down to 200$ I can't but think that there is a bit of schadenfreude (again to use the op language) because noobs (including me as I never really invested in bc before) did not pass those painful 3 years.

I think it's less about Schadenfreude and more about preparing newcomers for the worst. Making sure that people don't overreach in their investments and keep a level head. It's all fun and games until the bear market strikes and I don't think many of the new community members are fully aware of what they are potentially getting into. Seeing how some people get skittish when Bitcoin makes as much as a sneeze a reminder like OP's seems well placed.

A stable market needs strong hands and clear heads, everyone loses once things get emotional.

[d5000]

Wow, so much approval of my post, didn't think that

I want to add something about some comments talking about "legalization" of Bitcoin in some countries.

The prime case is Japan. One could expect a booming cryptocurrency real-world market in Japan with a lot of growth of Bitcoin full nodes, with new businesses and services.

But only 60 new full nodes have popped up in the last 9 months or so (I checked it back in January or February, and then there were about 80 nodes in that country). Japan has now 141 Bitcoin full nodes (Source). That's essentially nothing. A small rural village, or five high school classes. Yes, full nodes are not equal to users, but business users should really run a full node.

In my opinion there were the following reasons for the growth in the past year:
- first, Bitcoin was a bit undervalued, at least until early 2016, and so slowly began to grow as confidence rose
- then, the "halving bubble" brought optimism again into the market
- then we had the "ETF bull run", the ETF's failed, but the optimism still was there.
- the ICO bull run (caused by altcoins) in early-to-mid 2017 explains part of the current growth already
- and finally, in August, the "Segwit bull run".

None of these are events are really related to real-world adoption of Bitcoin as a currency. Legalization news are, at least a little bit, as they trigger hope and create opportunities. Bitcoin may slowly grow because of legalization in some countries, but in others (China and Russia, basically) it can lose traction because of stricter regulations.

[fabiorem]

When do you expect the price of 10k will be reached?

[energycom]

You create inconsistency here, I read all of your post. You said you're bullish in long term, and you claim a big drop for bitcoin, even down to $1000. How come then?

I mean how long bitcoin would stay low in case of your scneario is successful?

[ragnar0k]

Good points. Keep in mind that crypto has its own little dot-com bubble of crappy companies right now (*cough* ICOs *cough*). I'm positive that the long-term effect on Bitcoin itself will be limited though.

Hard to argue with that... I was just scammed by one. But maybe china is fixing it (assuming they don't kill freedom and rules are more towards reducing scams), then ICOs might become really something!

I think it's less about Schadenfreude and more about preparing newcomers for the worst. Making sure that people don't overreach in their investments and keep a level head. It's all fun and games until the bear market strikes and I don't think many of the new community members are fully aware of what they are potentially getting into. Seeing how some people get skittish when Bitcoin makes as much as a sneeze a reminder like OP's seems well placed.

A stable market needs strong hands and clear heads, everyone loses once things get emotional.

Indeed. As a noob I agree there is also too much talk about a 5% correction and too little about what can be done to expand bitcoin usage!

The prime case is Japan. One could expect a booming cryptocurrency real-world market in Japan with a lot of growth of Bitcoin full nodes, with new businesses and services.

But only 60 new full nodes have popped up in the last 9 months or so (I checked it back in January or February, and then there were about 80 nodes in that country). Japan has now 141 Bitcoin full nodes (Source). That's essentially nothing. A small rural village, or five high school classes. Yes, full nodes are not equal to users, but business users should really run a full node.

What I read from what you say is that there was a >70% increase in less than a year... Japan has passed the law only in April if I am not wrong...
Then again I think nodes are more about communities, maybe universities. I don't think a business knows what a node is used for... Seems like there is more awareness in Germany and US compared to the rest of the world (and surprisingly UK is way down the list...)

In my opinion there were the following reasons for the growth in the past year:
- first, Bitcoin was a bit undervalued, at least until early 2016, and so slowly began to grow as confidence rose
- then, the "halving bubble" brought optimism again into the market
- then we had the "ETF bull run", the ETF's failed, but the optimism still was there.
- the ICO bull run (caused by altcoins) in early-to-mid 2017 explains part of the current growth already
- and finally, in August, the "Segwit bull run".

Agree here. But then there is a chance that BC is about to go mainstream. I just read that it is likely that US is detaxing BC transactions up to 600$, if that happens that is a big opening the US government is giving to bitcoin. After all, you probably have more bitcoins than I do, so it is good to also hope a bit

[d5000]

What I read from what you say is that there was a >70% increase in less than a year... Japan has passed the law only in April if I am not wrong...

Yes, 70% looks much, but in absolute numbers it's a very small number actually. It's nothing that can justify a 300% price increase. The "boom" in Japan happened mostly at the exchanges like bitFlyer, but that is not sustainable Bitcoin real-world usage but speculation.

Then again I think nodes are more about communities, maybe universities. I don't think a business knows what a node is used for...

Well, then we have to educate them, because light nodes have some vulnerabilities and could, in theory, be "scammed" if their owners don't use some security measures (like checking they're on the right chain). Obviously if you sell low-priced items that's a risk you could take.

But then there is a chance that BC is about to go mainstream.

Mmh ... where do you see that? In media and real life I had this feeling in 2013 when there were a lot more people interested in Bitcoin than now, I think. The "buzz" was much stronger then. There were lots of shops starting to accept Bitcoin this year, and 2014. Most have ceased to do so, some new ones have appeared, but growth seems slow. It's not that I don't see some growth - mainly in "non-traditional" countries. But again, nothing that justifies a 300% increase in half a year.

I just read that it is likely that US is detaxing BC transactions up to 600$, if that happens that is a big opening the US government is giving to bitcoin.

Just curiosity: What would this "detaxing" mean in this context? Do the US have a tax for simple monetary transactions, or would this mean people would not have to pay VAT if they pay with BTC?

After all, you probably have more bitcoins than I do, so it is good to also hope a bit

Unfortunately, I'm 99% sure that you are wrong.

[janedt]

Well said, but i'm not sure about all 100% that you wrote. I mean, yes bitcoin might be near the top of a bubble but do you see 3 days ago when the price fall because of the news from china ? It was dropped but the price coming back to $4,500+. I don't know when the bubble will popped, but just be ready for it.

[cpfreeplz]

Bitcoins aren't a hyped up stock. They aren't just people trying to profit. If you actually believe in the technology you'll never sell and only keep buying. It's worth so much more than $5000 each and if you don't understand why then you don't understand how your local money supply works.

[pooya87]

But only 60 new full nodes have popped up in the last 9 months or so (I checked it back in January or February, and then there were about 80 nodes in that country). Japan has now 141 Bitcoin full nodes (Source). That's essentially nothing. A small rural village, or five high school classes. Yes, full nodes are not equal to users, but business users should really run a full node.

number of full nodes, specially a number that particular site shows is not at all an indication of adoption, or number of businesses.
because first of all that number is reachable nodes whereas a lot more nodes exist but they don't accept incoming connections and sites like above will never list them.
secondly is that businesses don't have to run a full node to accept bitcoin! it can be various ways, even a daemon using Electrum (an SPV wallet) can be used to receive payments.


p.s. i will never call bitcoin a bubble, near bubble top,... i would be disappointed if i do.

[d5000]

number of full nodes, specially a number that particular site shows is not at all an indication of adoption, or number of businesses.

In my opinion, it is an indicator. It is not the one and only indicator. For a better picture of Japanese reality one would have to perform an investigation on Bitcoin acceptance by shops. For me, the language barrier unfortunately is too high to do that.

The countries I best know regarding adoption are Germany and Argentina. In Germany (#2 on the node ranking) there is a small adoption, also by some online services like Lieferando, but that has practically not changed much since 2013/14. In Argentina there was a little boom in 2013/14, mostly due to Bitcoin being then a relatively easy and cheap way to access foreign currency (from 2012 to 2014 foreign currency buys were extremely restricted, and until late 2015 there remained weaker restrictions). There continue to be services but very probably not more than in 2014.

There were other countries with more growth, but on a low level, and it's not justifying a 30x increase in price.

because first of all that number is reachable nodes whereas a lot more nodes exist but they don't accept incoming connections and sites like above will never list them.

That has low incidence on that stat, I think.

secondly is that businesses don't have to run a full node to accept bitcoin! it can be various ways, even a daemon using Electrum (an SPV wallet) can be used to receive payments.

You should only accept payments of low importance with a SPV wallet. Only a full node gives you the opportunity to not being scammed. Most small businesses, in fact, are using Electrum or even centralized providers. So a small number of full nodes should be an indication that there are only small businesses using Bitcoin, or that they are using services like BitPay.

p.s. i will never call bitcoin a bubble, near bubble top,... i would be disappointed if i do.

I have also not called "bitcoin" "a bubble", but many assets sometimes overheat, and I think with Bitcoin it's the case now, as it was 2011 and 2013.

My goal with this thread is also not to spread negativity. But there are many newbies that are thinking that they still can be rich with Bitcoin if they invest their savings. I think that's not the case and so I issued this "warning", to avoid to many people being burnt. Maybe I'm wrong and we go straight up to $50.000 but I think it's very unlikely.

[dothebeats]

I myself hate to admit it, but bitcoin being in a bubble could still be a fact after all these months. Just like what you mentioned, there are still few merchants that thoroughly accepts bitcoin as a payment method even though the price surged drastically. It's a scary assumptions, but things around bitcoin (economy, merchants, nodes etc.) suggest that this certain price range wouldn't hold and it's caused by artificial price manipulations--just like 2013.

[Asrael999]

We may we'll be in a bubble, the bubble may well pop and the price fall to the last bubble top $1100 ish. But then there will be another bubble with a 20-30x rise from 1100 base to 20-30K and you will still quadruple your money from now in the next 4-5yrs. HODL what you have, don't get left out if the bubble doesn't pop and the price keeps rising.

[WatchMaker]

Bitcoin value doubled twice this year a long. Now that everybody put the money in bitcoin soon they'll be dumping their coins profits I think.

[ragnar0k]

Just curiosity: What would this "detaxing" mean in this context? Do the US have a tax for simple monetary transactions, or would this mean people would not have to pay VAT if they pay with BTC?

My understanding is that you can spend your bitcoin without thinking about taxation on your side up to 600$ per transaction.
Here is an article of our beloved fortune http://fortune.com/2017/09/07/cryptocurrency-bitcoin-tax

In any case, you made me worried now and I set up a stop loss bot. Let's hope I won't have to use it
I still think that regardless of adoption, bc can be an alternative for gold. Certainly nobody would want to spend any bitcoin around as long as they raise at a rate of 2000% yearly!

[YuginKadoya]

I think with this post I will start assessing if how long I can hold my bitcoin savings since there's a lots of possibilities that this statement will happen anytime soon
and with the current earnings that I've got maybe its better to exchange the half of it into fiat for some assurance then the other half can be stored inside my btc
wallet for long term hold.

Yup! I think about doing the same thing if this coming Hard Fork will be inevitable and if bitcoin would surely split again it could be terrible indeed, risky in terms the impending Fork can be worst, but I think I will keep my half of my coins to bitcoin and left it stay in a safe cold storage, but right now a speculation can still stay as an speculation and we can really never know what can happen in November.

[ragnar0k]

d5000
I do not know if this is a dip or not
But you just saved me loads of money.

XD

[jekjekman]

I really don't know what to say but I am not against to what you have said and pointing out as it has a logical way of thinking and explanations but Bitcoin is different to any kind of Fiat currency especially the market of it as it is traded worldwide and many people really believe in it.

I don't see the day that Bitcoin will go back to $1,000 price because it literally symbolizes a bubble even though it is not. Everything can happen though but no one can really tell what will.

[Lubang Bawah]

I think this conditions are now different, the current user is increasing and not dominated by some people or groups. bitcoin will continue to skyrocket though sometimes down and I'm sure the price will not happen $ 3000.

[eaLiTy]

I think this conditions are now different, the current user is increasing and not dominated by some people or groups. bitcoin will continue to skyrocket though sometimes down and I'm sure the price will not happen $ 3000.

Anything can happen in this market,you cannot say for certain that the price wont go back to $3000,there is a point OP made,yes we made a huge jump in price in the past few months and the rally was amazing and the flip side is that the market could go down as fast too,so be careful with your investment and in the long run it is true that the price of bitcoin will skyrocket but not at a faster pace.

[aardvark15]

After reading a lot of perma-bullish postings in this speculation forum, I only want to issue a little warning. Not as a professional trader, but a guy that has been here since 2013.

Be careful! I think we are near the top of a bubble. Don't invest what you cannot afford to lose.

That is valid for Bitcoin and most altcoins at the same time. I think we have overheated - mostly due to the speculation on the Segwit activation - and now we must go down a bit. Probably the rest of the year will be bearish or a sideways market.

What doesn't that "warning" mean?
- It doesn't mean that Bitcoin will go instantly to zero. My prediction is that it will go to $3000, until late October but then, depending on the news, we can go lower (in a worst case scenario, to about $1000).
- It doesn't even mean that $4970 was the top (although I consider it likely). There could be another bullish "leg". But it will most likely be the last one of the year, and I don't think it will reach $10.000.
- It does not mean that "Bitcoin is a bubble". Bitcoin is useful and a great project. But it cannot increase permanently in price. Sometimes there is profit taking, or also a little bit of panic.

Why do I think that the "bubble" ended?
- Bitcoin's price has increased about 30 times in this bullish cycle which started in late 2014 at $135. That is HUGE.
- Adoption by retailers and other real world shops has not increased according to the price increase (in fact, I think we're at the same level than in 2013/14).
- China has strongly restricted ICOs a few days ago. That will lower the demand a bit, although it's not catastrophic, maybe.
- In November, there could be a dangerous hard fork, separating the main development team (Bitcoin Core) from a large part of the Bitcoin economy (miners, Bitpay, Coinbase) on different chains.

Draw your own conclusions. I'm a bit in bearish mood now. I'm still a long term bull

I also think this could be a bubble because the price seemed to rise too far too fast. It's had huge gains this year and the price has to drop sometime. There will be some kind of correction to bring the price down to around $3000 or so. It could even go lower than that but possibly not. I've seen enough fluctuation in Bitcoin price to expect it to happen eventually. I am surprised it hasn't happened already.

[fearcoka]

I think this conditions are now different, the current user is increasing and not dominated by some people or groups. bitcoin will continue to skyrocket though sometimes down and I'm sure the price will not happen $ 3000.

Anything can happen in this market,you cannot say for certain that the price wont go back to $3000,there is a point OP made,yes we made a huge jump in price in the past few months and the rally was amazing and the flip side is that the market could go down as fast too,so be careful with your investment and in the long run it is true that the price of bitcoin will skyrocket but not at a faster pace.

I think if Bitcoin can keep its bullish trend in long term like 5-10 years or like Gold from 2010 till today, it still good. You and me also know an asset grow fast always have risk breakdown anytime and we will lose our money if it becomes the truth.

[omonuyak]

I disagree with your view of $4950 likely be the end of a bubble. In My view bitcoin is not yet even in the  bubble as we are still at the infancy stage of bitcoin and blockchain technology development. I do expect bitcoin to remain above $4000 for the remaining part of this year and I don't think we have any significant reason why bitcoin should go bearish except the games of media we are seeing playing from China to outrightly control bitcoin prices.

[jokowi]

I think this conditions are now different, the current user is increasing and not dominated by some people or groups. bitcoin will continue to skyrocket though sometimes down and I'm sure the price will not happen $ 3000.

No, it is unreasonable to say that bitcoin will go down to $ 3k, bitcoin is a popular currency, with market demand, it will not go down too much, it may even go up soon.

[p0peji]

Just wait until a good sell signal on the 2h or 4h and short the crap out of this thing, thank me later. Will probably be around 4450-4550.

[btcney]

We are definitely in a bubble and there is no doubt about it.

However i don't think that we are at the top yet, especially if the China news that everyone has been talking about turns out to be false. If it was confirmed to be fake news by the Chinese press then it is extremely likely we will see price go back to close to $5000 or even beyond that.

But great warning, people are acting really irrationally recently. The bubble will eventually pop and we could see $2000-3000 levels again, but i'm just not sure if it's going to be this year or the next.

[802529er]

If the price drops to as low as your saying, would you be picking up as much cheap af bitcoin that you can in the hopes that it’ll go back up!

[Kyraishi]

If the price drops to as low as your saying, would you be picking up as much cheap af bitcoin that you can in the hopes that it’ll go back up!

If you are referring to OP's predictions then no, i wouldn't consider buying at $3000 or at least put all of my funds into buying at a $3000 level. If it does go down to $3000 in the first place then i think the trend will continue down to at least $2500, or even $2000.

Just like OP i am bullish in the long term with bitcoin.

Therefore, i think the logical thing to do is to keep buying bitcoin in small increments, regardless of price. That way you are not affected by buying too high, as you have a chance to lower the cost average.

[Denker]

I disagree with your view of $4950 likely be the end of a bubble. In My view bitcoin is not yet even in the  bubble as we are still at the infancy stage of bitcoin and blockchain technology development. I do expect bitcoin to remain above $4000 for the remaining part of this year and I don't think we have any significant reason why bitcoin should go bearish except the games of media we are seeing playing from China to outrightly control bitcoin prices.

I agree with that. We've seen a great run this year but when I look at the weekly chart, zoom out in log scale, we're still far away from being in a bubble. Furthermore I don't understand why people still look at linear chart for a long term view. This is dumb!!
We may take break and consolidate here for a while, maybe dip down to 3500 or so for a short while, but I'm sure the bull run isn't over yet.
Right now there seems to be strong support around 4000. If it holds or we really get the chance to buy more coins below 3800-3900 needs to be seen.

[timerland]

I disagree with your view of $4950 likely be the end of a bubble. In My view bitcoin is not yet even in the  bubble as we are still at the infancy stage of bitcoin and blockchain technology development. I do expect bitcoin to remain above $4000 for the remaining part of this year and I don't think we have any significant reason why bitcoin should go bearish except the games of media we are seeing playing from China to outrightly control bitcoin prices.

I agree with that. We've seen a great run this year but when I look at the weekly chart, zoom out in log scale, we're still far away from being in a bubble. Furthermore I don't understand why people still look at linear chart for a long term view. This is dumb!!
We may take break and consolidate here for a while, maybe dip down to 3500 or so for a short while, but I'm sure the bull run isn't over yet.
Right now there seems to be strong support around 4000. If it holds or we really get the chance to buy more coins below 3800-3900 needs to be seen.

I think that OP is saying that short term we are in a bubble, and i agree with him on that.

Long term, i'm extremely bullish on bitcoin to grow exponentially. There is not even 1% of the world using bitcoin right now and we are alreday at such a high market cap, just think of the potential that bitcoin has when it gains the amount of followers that it needs and becomes accepted by merchants.

However, short term price has risen too much and does not fit the long term growth curve imo. When it grows too much it'll always be followed by a dip, at which point it will overcorrect and presents a good buying opportunity.

[ChainSmoker]

I don't agree with OP at all.He is treating this situation as 2013 which is not.Bitcoin is much more stronger now and bitcoin price is no where high.I expect bitcoin to increase more considering the technology it has.We will never see 2000$ price again let alone 1000$.IMHO,we might go to 3000$ and that will be for short time(if that happens).Once we are up 5000$ there's no going back.  

[d5000]

Just curiosity: What would this "detaxing" mean in this context? Do the US have a tax for simple monetary transactions, or would this mean people would not have to pay VAT if they pay with BTC?

My understanding is that you can spend your bitcoin without thinking about taxation on your side up to 600$ per transaction.
Here is an article of our beloved fortune http://fortune.com/2017/09/07/cryptocurrency-bitcoin-tax

Thanks. Now I understand it a bit better, I think. To summarize: if you make a purchase with coins that have increased in value but the transaction is less than $600 you won't be taxed for capital gains. Sounds good. It's even more bitcoin-friendly than the similar German rule (€600 of "profit" per year there are tax-free, or you must hold the BTC for a year. But there the system is a bit different.).

I disagree with your view of $4950 likely be the end of a bubble. In My view bitcoin is not yet even in the  bubble as we are still at the infancy stage of bitcoin and blockchain technology development. I do expect bitcoin to remain above $4000 for the remaining part of this year and I don't think we have any significant reason why bitcoin should go bearish except the games of media we are seeing playing from China to outrightly control bitcoin prices.

Well, even if we remained above $4000 but didn't cross $5000, we were technically in a bear market

But I also disagree that Bitcoin is so much in "its infancy". Bitcoin is already 8 years old. It's not ultra-mature still, but it's an internet technology, these are "growing up" faster than "real world" tech. Where was Facebook when it was 8? Or Google? OK, you could say "it's a protocol, not a company". But then let's compare it to "social networks" in general. They appeared in 1997 with SixDegrees. Eight years later MySpace was already a relatively well-known and mature player. So I would say that Bitcoin in 2017 is at a similar level than social networks were in 2004/05 approximately.

Don't understand me wrong: Bitcoin can still grow, and grow a lot. But I'm currently not seeing so much "real world" growth that justifies 300%+ in less than a year. (bold, because permabulls seem not to get the importance of that "little" fact).

[Digital Mutant]

 
beware!
 

At the moment market cap is  $145.515.520.319

A big bubble!

...but I'm sorry....it is not...

[ragnar0k]

Well, even if we remained above $4000 but didn't cross $5000, we were technically in a bear market

But I also disagree that Bitcoin is so much in "its infancy". Bitcoin is already 8 years old. It's not ultra-mature still, but it's an internet technology, these are "growing up" faster than "real world" tech. Where was Facebook when it was 8? Or Google? OK, you could say "it's a protocol, not a company". But then let's compare it to "social networks" in general. They appeared in 1997 with SixDegrees. Eight years later MySpace was already a relatively well-known and mature player. So I would say that Bitcoin in 2017 is at a similar level than social networks were in 2004/05 approximately.

Don't understand me wrong: Bitcoin can still grow, and grow a lot. But I'm currently not seeing so much "real world" growth that justifies 300%+ in less than a year. (bold, because permabulls seem not to get the importance of that "little" fact).

So... here is my conspiracy theory:
- BC is based on NSA's S-Box (AES)
- FB is basically NSA
- Since FB has become huge and nobody knows how (wink wink), BC will become huge as well.

Taking out my tin foil hat, that 300% is all the infrastructure that has grown since the last time I tried (and partially failed) to make sense out of bitcoin. It took time, and here I agree with you, will also take time for 'mass adoption'. It can still grow if 'stuff' happens (Russia being forthcoming now is great news), so all in all, I agree that if nothing happens now, we are going bear (hope not 1000$ bear tho). But then again, governments are waking up to bitcoin now, and if more investors start to come in, I can see the infrastructure to bring in people improving exponentially - you never know what is next

[d5000]

As things are developing mostly like I expected (even the $4000+ bounce), I want to reiterate my warning.

It isn't at all sure that we will continue the bull ride! It is very likely that we are in a dead cat bounce / bull trap.

I think it's already too late to ride this wave. If price really reaches a new all time high over $5000, then we can expect another bullish "leg". Otherwise, I would consider investing in BTC at this moment be essentially "gambling". At least you should observe the price carefully or set a stop-loss (limit) order if you want to buy now.

In the 2013/14 bubble and subsequent crash, there was a similar upswing in January 2014 which surpassed $1000 again. It only lasted for a week or so. We're still inside of this time frame.



The bounce I mean is the first one that is seen here (after the big red crash). If we follow this pattern, then the second, much longer, bounce could drive prices again in the $3500 area, but not to $4000. And the lows will be lower every time, most likely the next one about 2300-2500$, then $1800, and if everything goes wrong we may dip near the 2013 all time high of $1150. A sustainable lower low would surprise me, although unfortunately it's not impossible.

[sicparvismagna]

Yeah before we make our own judgement into something we do not rush and make hasty decision investing is a learning process you study what is present in the environment make an analysis and if the observation is positive then that will the only time I make a decision. I don't take immediate if you invest make a necessary precautious step first to mitigate risk and make a valuable decision you would not regret.

[d5000]

Bitcoin has finally reached another bullish "leg" - so there was no bounce. I think it was caused by the expectation of "free money" having two forks lying ahead of us.

But nevertheless, I want to renew my call for "carefulness". It would really be "too good to be true" if Bitcoin went now straight into the 8K-10K zone. My guess is that $6000 are possible, $7000 are already unlikely, and $8000 almost impossible - in 2017, and maybe also 2018.

I would even not be surprised if we saw major price turbulences (and a possible crash) in November near the Segwit2x fork date. Reason.

[n0ne]

However user keeps him active, one cannot easily get rid of or minimize the loss, because the price moves happen in a short without any prior notification. So need to try making the profit out of it, but the same when doesn't give success just focus on holding and use the right opportunity in future. Some sells suddenly without thinking anything which is not good decision.

[pearlmen]

At this time,  its very much OK to start exercising some element of skepticism as to what will happen to either price or bitcoin itself. From my point of view, I see some restrictions being happening between $5000+ but if the impending fork becomes a success, we can then see a further breakthrough beyond the $6000 mark.

[franco123]

After reading a lot of perma-bullish postings in this speculation forum, I only want to issue a little warning. Not as a professional trader, but a guy that has been here since 2013.

Be careful! I think we are near the top of a bubble. Don't invest what you cannot afford to lose.

That is valid for Bitcoin and most altcoins at the same time. I think we have overheated - mostly due to the speculation on the Segwit activation - and now we must go down a bit. Probably the rest of the year will be bearish or a sideways market.

What doesn't that "warning" mean?
- It doesn't mean that Bitcoin will go instantly to zero. My prediction is that it will go to $3000, until late October but then, depending on the news, we can go lower (in a worst case scenario, to about $1000).
- It doesn't even mean that $4970 was the top (although I consider it likely). There could be another bullish "leg". But it will most likely be the last one of the year, and I don't think it will reach $10.000.
- It does not mean that "Bitcoin is a bubble". Bitcoin is useful and a great project. But it cannot increase permanently in price. Sometimes there is profit taking, or also a little bit of panic.

Why do I think that the "bubble" ended?
- Bitcoin's price has increased about 30 times in this bullish cycle which started in late 2014 at $135. That is HUGE.
- Adoption by retailers and other real world shops has not increased according to the price increase (in fact, I think we're at the same level than in 2013/14).
- China has strongly restricted ICOs a few days ago. That will lower the demand a bit, although it's not catastrophic, maybe.
- In November, there could be a dangerous hard fork, separating the main development team (Bitcoin Core) from a large part of the Bitcoin economy (miners, Bitpay, Coinbase) on different chains.

Draw your own conclusions. I'm a bit in bearish mood now. I'm still a long term bull

I couldn't agree more. Everything in today's time affects all the other investments. And Bitcoin is one of the volatile investment considering that it is not yet totally acceptable by the government.

One thing to remember is the price ceiling concept. As sir said, there may come a time that a bubble might pop and everyone will panic sellin on Bitcoins. This will happen usually when the price ceiling will hit and the price can only go low then.

[arbitrage]

From the start BTC was surrounded with speculations and this is perfectly normal. Whatever happens until the end of the year, but I hope BTC won't fall down like OP said, but more likely we will see 10k. When you see all those attacks on BTC you can feel how BTC becoming dangerous and they are starting to believe more than we do.  BTC is evil actually and can destroy their order.

[ekoice]

I think that you are taking the situation a little bit more serious.I do agree that we have been in bullish trend for more time continuously,despite of china's actions against bitcoin.I don't understand how you give that much importance to bitcoin gold hard fork when it does not have miners support and no exchanges or wallets have till now extended their support to it.It would have very little significance when compared to bitcoin cash which was supported by mining pools and bittrex exchange.So definitely,it would have a very small impact on bitcoin's price.

But i too have to agree with your prediction about segwit 2x activation that it may create big negative effects in the bitcoin environment.Even though F2Pool and two other pools have withdrawn support for segwit 2x,still it has 85% of miners support and that's an alarming signal  about bitcoin's price drop at that time.So,bitcoin investors would have to be very careful at that time.

[STEVEN 888]

most of posts now turned into say price may be rise more than 6,000$ this will engage newbie

[alyssa85]

There might be some profit taking after October 25th, when people realise that no exchange uis going to list bitcoingold.

As for the segwit2x thing - if there is a genuine consensus am, there won't be two chains, it will simply switch to 2x.

[Slow death]

...no exchange uis going to list bitcoingold.

already exists exchange for bitcoin gold, yobit already announced this:

"  Yobit.Net‏ @YobitExchange  2 hhá 2 horas

Bitcoin Gold balances will be added in 68 hrs (23 oct, monday), timer: https://yobit.net/en/bitcoingold/timer …
BTC deps/wds will be disabled in 65 hrs. "

As for the segwit2x thing - if there is a genuine consensus am, there won't be two chains, it will simply switch to 2x.

this is impossible

Beware of Bitcoin's possible incompatibility with some major services
11 Octob


I hope I do not see $1000 again.

[Bram 666]

After bitcoin  price break 6,000$ all will buy more from it

[arbitrage]

...no exchange uis going to list bitcoingold.

already exists exchange for bitcoin gold, yobit already announced this:

"  Yobit.Net‏ @YobitExchange  2 hhá 2 horas

Bitcoin Gold balances will be added in 68 hrs (23 oct, monday), timer: https://yobit.net/en/bitcoingold/timer …
BTC deps/wds will be disabled in 65 hrs. "

As for the segwit2x thing - if there is a genuine consensus am, there won't be two chains, it will simply switch to 2x.

this is impossible

Beware of Bitcoin's possible incompatibility with some major services
11 Octob


I hope I do not see $1000 again.

Yobit will do it again just it was case with Lisk. If you remember they have started trade LISK which still was not delivered to its investors. This is wrong, and they are preparing to do this again, but this time this is much more dangerous, and they know that they will get more money. They are no longer in list of my favorite places..This speculative trade is hazardous and promoting BTC demise, purposely or not this is wrong and whales groups which supporting this new coin will make damage to us all.

[orions.belt19]

I 100% agree with you.

In bubbles people are often led into thinking that bitcoin price will continue to go up no matter what, and it is actually not a bubble at all. I personally think that this is ridiculous, as this amount of growth is simply not sustainable and must come to an end soon.

We are still pretty high up, even though we corrected from $5000 to $4500. I think that $3000 by end of October could be a very likely scenario. Though, i think we are going to retest the $5k level before people start dumping still.

Investors are free to do whatever they like, but just remember that this is a bubble, and it is good to be rational in a bubble and not follow the hype.

A lot of people has been saying that bitcoin is a bubble for so long, especially when the price goes down or dips. I somewhat agree with OP's reasoning in the end of the bitcoin bubble. However, I do not agree that China's ICO ban and decision has played a part in it.

We are entitled to our own opinions and each one may deduce different conclusions by looking at the recent happenings and with different views. As in investor, I'd like to agree with OP and have the same view because I intend my investment on bitcoin to be long term.

[holdingkrypto]

OP and all people thinking that it is speculation or it is a bubble: your problem is that you are just looking at the charts because you are just speculators. Bitcoin is much more than that. It is not a speculative tool. It is a completely new technology that will change entire sectors and, since it will only spread more and more, it will reach much higher prices.

[jubalix]

What you say is reasonable....its just hard to say where is the top and what is the bottom.....you just don't know with BTC and there is no precedent.

Also I feel that the people whole sell out are less with every cycle, as their HODL is rewarded and the HODL are selected for.


New entrants can buy a lot less BTC now for a Lot more $$$, and so can dump not so much.

[yefi]

Be careful: just because you've been here since 2013 and experienced a bubble, doesn't mean you're equipped or entitled to predict the top.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

After reading a lot of perma-bullish postings in this speculation forum, I only want to issue a little warning. Not as a professional trader, but a guy that has been here since 2013.

Be careful! I think we are near the top of a bubble. Don't invest what you cannot afford to lose.

That is valid for Bitcoin and most altcoins at the same time. I think we have overheated - mostly due to the speculation on the Segwit activation - and now we must go down a bit. Probably the rest of the year will be bearish or a sideways market.

What doesn't that "warning" mean?
- It doesn't mean that Bitcoin will go instantly to zero. My prediction is that it will go to $3000, until late October but then, depending on the news, we can go lower (in a worst case scenario, to about $1000).
- It doesn't even mean that $4970 was the top (although I consider it likely). There could be another bullish "leg". But it will most likely be the last one of the year, and I don't think it will reach $10.000.
- It does not mean that "Bitcoin is a bubble". Bitcoin is useful and a great project. But it cannot increase permanently in price. Sometimes there is profit taking, or also a little bit of panic.

Why do I think that the "bubble" ended?
- Bitcoin's price has increased about 30 times in this bullish cycle which started in late 2014 at $135. That is HUGE.
- Adoption by retailers and other real world shops has not increased according to the price increase (in fact, I think we're at the same level than in 2013/14).
- China has strongly restricted ICOs a few days ago. That will lower the demand a bit, although it's not catastrophic, maybe.
- In November, there could be a dangerous hard fork, separating the main development team (Bitcoin Core) from a large part of the Bitcoin economy (miners, Bitpay, Coinbase) on different chains.

Draw your own conclusions. I'm a bit in bearish mood now. I'm still a long term bull

I think the moral of this post is that we see a lot of people in this forum, especially newbies, getting too excited about rising prices. Those are the first to panic and sell after the first dip. This is a highly volatile market and it is even more volatile for most altcoins. Every investor should be aware of that and not be surprised if it goes down as fast as it goes up.

[MidKnight]

After reading a lot of perma-bullish postings in this speculation forum, I only want to issue a little warning. Not as a professional trader, but a guy that has been here since 2013.

Be careful! I think we are near the top of a bubble. Don't invest what you cannot afford to lose.

That is valid for Bitcoin and most altcoins at the same time. I think we have overheated - mostly due to the speculation on the Segwit activation - and now we must go down a bit. Probably the rest of the year will be bearish or a sideways market.

What doesn't that "warning" mean?
- It doesn't mean that Bitcoin will go instantly to zero. My prediction is that it will go to $3000, until late October but then, depending on the news, we can go lower (in a worst case scenario, to about $1000).
- It doesn't even mean that $4970 was the top (although I consider it likely). There could be another bullish "leg". But it will most likely be the last one of the year, and I don't think it will reach $10.000.
- It does not mean that "Bitcoin is a bubble". Bitcoin is useful and a great project. But it cannot increase permanently in price. Sometimes there is profit taking, or also a little bit of panic.

Why do I think that the "bubble" ended?
- Bitcoin's price has increased about 30 times in this bullish cycle which started in late 2014 at $135. That is HUGE.
- Adoption by retailers and other real world shops has not increased according to the price increase (in fact, I think we're at the same level than in 2013/14).
- China has strongly restricted ICOs a few days ago. That will lower the demand a bit, although it's not catastrophic, maybe.
- In November, there could be a dangerous hard fork, separating the main development team (Bitcoin Core) from a large part of the Bitcoin economy (miners, Bitpay, Coinbase) on different chains.

Draw your own conclusions. I'm a bit in bearish mood now. I'm still a long term bull

I think the moral of this post is that we see a lot of people in this forum, especially newbies, getting too excited about rising prices. Those are the first to panic and sell after the first dip. This is a highly volatile market and it is even more volatile for most altcoins. Every investor should be aware of that and not be surprised if it goes down as fast as it goes up.

Newbies are mostly the types who are in a hurry to make much money without thinking.  It happened to me when I was starting and had no idea about everything so I hope they'll avoid those kinds of wrong practices.

[Budugbass]

After bitcoin  price break 6,000$ all will buy more from it

Yes you're right, I also thinking like that.. surely most people will take advantage of the situation when the price break from $6000 that's a time to buy, because indeed surely bitcoin price will still be able to reach $6000 again, even it could be more from $6000.

[markjamrobin]

most of posts now turned into say price may be rise more than 6,000$ this will engage newbie

Yes, this can be a way to attract investment from inexperienced people, but in my opinion, bitcoin is absolutely primed for sustainable development, so do not worry. If you do not want to invest in bitcoin, keep your money, waiting for what will happen.

[Jating]

After bitcoin  price break 6,000$ all will buy more from it

Yes you're right, I also thinking like that.. surely most people will take advantage of the situation when the price break from $6000 that's a time to buy, because indeed surely bitcoin price will still be able to reach $6000 again, even it could be more from $6000.

Bitcoin price is slumping right now. I think for me, this is really a good buying point. I'm expecting that we are going to be stable around $6000 after the fork but most of the investors are dumping and taking home some profit. Not bad, but others should take advantage of this situation to buy more bitcoins. Its really hard to miss this opportunity. No need to go back to altcoins because they have already recovered. People should cash out their bitcoin gold and put it all in bitcoin. I will surely buy in this bitcoin dip around $5600.

[ask]

For longer terms no need to worry about newbies and other. For sure in 5 years we will see 10k-20k level in itcoin price.
Yes valotility is huge but no need to worry if you are not using any leverage.

[digaran]

OP we're going back to $3000 and then $1000  for sure, lol not only price didn't drop below $5000 but it got to $6000+ in the last 4 days, this is just amazing, for 2 years we could predict the price for 6 months ahead of time, now you couldn't predict where will be the price in 5 minutes.
Be careful, sell now before you lose everything, I beg of you to dump the price, I need to buy a house. $4000 is the low, not $1000.

[Hanebel]

So, a couple of points that were not considered
1- ETF: if it gets approved we might easily go to 10k
2- Bearish market: I don't think we know where we are... Countries are legalizing bitcoins as we speak and the only real crash we had was because infrastructure at the time was pathetic (I mined a bit but I lost the coins when the hard drive died, don't think there was even a reliable wallet back then without downloading the full blockchain)
3- Market standard: The current bubble is high for bitcoin standards, but we are a long shot from wall street standards...
4- Financial attention: We might get into trade market. Russia is looking into this and US might get there too... First lobbies are starting to form on a government level for bitcoin support


You might be right though, we might be near the end (specially given the fork), but if I look on tradingview, and all people trying to predict anything with TA, it is a bit of a tragedy. I like to click play and see what people predicted in the past re. to bitcoin and a 50% success ratio is quite an achievement there. I am just trying to say that there seems to be no real way to tell what to do next...

I'll be holding for the moment, if it goes flat to 3k so be it
I hope bc will wake up again in a couple of years if so.

[Edited]
Regarding the fact that shops did not increase since 2013... Please take a look here
https://coinmap.org/#/world/30.90222471/22.14843750/2

Can somebody explain what is ETF? I'm glad to read an optimistic speculation. It's probably true that there is high posibility that price will decrease but I hope price will increase.

[talkbitcoin]

Can somebody explain what is ETF? I'm glad to read an optimistic speculation. It's probably true that there is high posibility that price will decrease but I hope price will increase.

that is short for Exchange Traded Fund. you can read more about it here: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/etf.asp

a lot of the things that he said are open for debate though. for example this ETF that you mention can be a good thing as a positive news for bitcoin and puts it in mind of some potential investors but i don't think it will be the reason for a rise to $10k, specially since it was posted last month and price was $3500-$4300.
one reason for it is because the money for ETF is already in the market and anybody who invests in ETF is not investing in bitcoin but in an ETF!!! so it is not a direct rise.

[600watt]

Be careful: just because you've been here since 2013 and experienced a bubble, doesn't mean you're equipped or entitled to predict the top.

yep, even blitz tried to call the top. below $3k i think it was. 

[d5000]

Be careful: just because you've been here since 2013 and experienced a bubble, doesn't mean you're equipped or entitled to predict the top.

I'm at least that "entitled" to predict "the top" than the permabulls that promise you $10K in a couple of days

OP we're going back to $3000 and then $1000  for sure, lol not only price didn't drop below $5000 but it got to $6000+ in the last 4 days, this is just amazing, for 2 years we could predict the price for 6 months ahead of time, now you couldn't predict where will be the price in 5 minutes.

Read the OP again. I've clearly stated that there may be another "bullish leg" in this cycle. That's what we're seeing now. I think it is mostly due to the forks (the 6200 peak occurred just before the Gold fork). Perhaps there will be another rise before Segwit2x. But it's not mandatory that this happens. It is also possible that the price will go down from now on, if people see that they won't profit that much from these forks (BTG and BCC have both prices of less than 10% compared to Bitcoin).

And yeah, we have seen $3000 at some moment. Everybody was bearish that day
 

[fulmetal08larz]

In my opinion, most people who are investing in bitcoin currently are new to crptocurrency world and they are riding the bandwagon, but surely, there are also smart investors who have invested lots of money into bitcoin and altcoins. Business minded people will not let their business go down, instead, take the opportunity to buy more bitcoin when the price hits the bottom. Although we may see the price of bitcoin to fluctuate, it is normal in the market. Bitcoin's development will never stop unless technology itself stops. Just hope for the best and believe in the future of bitcoin to be bright.

[Hyperme.sh]

After reading a lot of perma-bullish postings in this speculation forum, I only want to issue a little warning. Not as a professional trader, but a guy that has been here since 2013.

Be careful! I think we are near the top of a bubble. Don't invest what you cannot afford to lose.

I thought I was not going to post again in Speculation so soon, but you may be the professional trader:

We have four actual groups:

• smart strategic big money (long-term portfolios)
• professional short-term traders
• the day trader who thinks he is limiting his risks
• program traders who try to arbitrage ticks
• the average retail investor
• the fool who rushes in at the last minute

In most real good vertical markets, it is the professional short-term traders who keep trying to sell the new highs. This has been the group that has been bearish ever since 2009. They never saw new highs coming, and they still will try to sell every new high today. They falsely believe that they are “professional” and so they will be right and the average investor is the fool. But the average investor sees the trend for what it is, goes with the trend, while the short-term “professional” keeps trying to beat the market.

It’s very difficult to trade a vertical market. Be careful with getting knocked off the horse too soon.

None of us know what is going to happen.

There is a compelling viewpoint that the momentum and rush into Bitcoin will carry forward a bit longer. Perhaps even with a dip sometime during the 2x and the (sell the) end of the year (and go away) period.

Indeed you will probably end up being correct, but at $6000, $8000, $10000, $15000, or $25000? That is the question.

I do agree, nobody should be rushing in at these prices. Buy dips and/or dollar cost averaging. Don’t be the guy who bought everything in one lump sum at the top:

He explained he had bought the Japanese share market on the very day of the high and now it was crashing. His investment was $50 million. But the intrigue came when he said it was the first time in his life he had purchased any stock. He then had my attention since I was talking to the guy who bought the high.

Those who purchased long-ago should be wary of trying to trade in and out of a vertical market, unless you have some conviction about arbitrage such as you think an altcoin is undervalued.

[carlerha]

In my opinion, most people who are investing in bitcoin currently are new to crptocurrency world and they are riding the bandwagon, but surely, there are also smart investors who have invested lots of money into bitcoin and altcoins. Business minded people will not let their business go down, instead, take the opportunity to buy more bitcoin when the price hits the bottom. Although we may see the price of bitcoin to fluctuate, it is normal in the market. Bitcoin's development will never stop unless technology itself stops. Just hope for the best and believe in the future of bitcoin to be bright.

It is expected that bitcoin price will drop after 25th October, but i think bitcoin has a very stronger support from wise investors, they do not want to let bitcoin down on any cost. We have very good experience from previous day, when bitcoin dropped from 5000$ to 3000$, but at 3000$ bitcoin got a strong support and the price once again start increasing. i am sure that bitcoin price is not going to dump any more, it will now continue increasing and hopefully will reach to 7000$ very soon.

[maku]

Stop dreaming about serious game-changing ETF, it is not gonna happen anytime soon. SEC won't allow it.
They said it many times over and over again, they cannot allow bitcoin to be traded because:
a) it is not regulated like real stock exchanges and commodities, bonds are
b) there is no real protection for investors - as far as I can tell bitcoin price might drop to zero tomorrow

[carlfebz2]

In my opinion, most people who are investing in bitcoin currently are new to crptocurrency world and they are riding the bandwagon, but surely, there are also smart investors who have invested lots of money into bitcoin and altcoins. Business minded people will not let their business go down, instead, take the opportunity to buy more bitcoin when the price hits the bottom. Although we may see the price of bitcoin to fluctuate, it is normal in the market. Bitcoin's development will never stop unless technology itself stops. Just hope for the best and believe in the future of bitcoin to be bright.

It is expected that bitcoin price will drop after 25th October, but i think bitcoin has a very stronger support from wise investors, they do not want to let bitcoin down on any cost. We have very good experience from previous day, when bitcoin dropped from 5000$ to 3000$, but at 3000$ bitcoin got a strong support and the price once again start increasing. i am sure that bitcoin price is not going to dump any more, it will now continue increasing and hopefully will reach to 7000$ very soon.

We might not still able to see price dip or correction as of now but yet we cant still be sure since we are still yet on 24 hours passed which means anytime soon those price corrections would happen unexpectedly but regarding on its price development theres no really doubt on that but we should not really believe on it too much knowing the properties of bitcoins price it can really drop anytime.