Be careful. (Newbies and others ...)

[d5000]

After reading a lot of perma-bullish postings in this speculation forum, I only want to issue a little warning. Not as a professional trader, but a guy that has been here since 2013.

Be careful! I think we are near the top of a bubble. Don't invest what you cannot afford to lose.

That is valid for Bitcoin and most altcoins at the same time. I think we have overheated - mostly due to the speculation on the Segwit activation - and now we must go down a bit. Probably the rest of the year will be bearish or a sideways market.

What doesn't that "warning" mean?
- It doesn't mean that Bitcoin will go instantly to zero. My prediction is that it will go to $3000, until late October but then, depending on the news, we can go lower (in a worst case scenario, to about $1000).
- It doesn't even mean that $4970 was the top (although I consider it likely). There could be another bullish "leg". But it will most likely be the last one of the year, and I don't think it will reach $10.000.
- It does not mean that "Bitcoin is a bubble". Bitcoin is useful and a great project. But it cannot increase permanently in price. Sometimes there is profit taking, or also a little bit of panic.

Why do I think that the "bubble" ended?
- Bitcoin's price has increased about 30 times in this bullish cycle which started in late 2014 at $135. That is HUGE.
- Adoption by retailers and other real world shops has not increased according to the price increase (in fact, I think we're at the same level than in 2013/14).
- China has strongly restricted ICOs a few days ago. That will lower the demand a bit, although it's not catastrophic, maybe.
- In November, there could be a dangerous hard fork, separating the main development team (Bitcoin Core) from a large part of the Bitcoin economy (miners, Bitpay, Coinbase) on different chains.

Draw your own conclusions. I'm a bit in bearish mood now. I'm still a long term bull

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[kwukduck]

People won't like what you have to say here.
You'll be shunned and ridiculed.
.

[Saoha]

After reading a lot of perma-bullish postings in this speculation forum, I only want to issue a little warning. Not as a professional trader, but a guy that has been here since 2013.

Be careful! I think we are near the top of a bubble. Don't invest what you cannot afford to lose.

That is valid for Bitcoin and most altcoins at the same time. I think we have overheated - mostly due to the speculation on the Segwit activation - and now we must go down a bit. Probably the rest of the year will be bearish or a sideways market.

What doesn't that "warning" mean?
- It doesn't mean that Bitcoin will go instantly to zero. My prediction is that it will go to $3000, until late October but then, depending on the news, we can go lower (in a worst case scenario, to about $1000).
- It doesn't even mean that $4970 was the top (although I consider it likely). There could be another bullish "leg". But it will most likely be the last one of the year, and I don't think it will reach $10.000.
- It does not mean that "Bitcoin is a bubble". Bitcoin is useful and a great project. But it cannot increase permanently in price. Sometimes there is profit taking, or also a little bit of panic.

Why do I think that the "bubble" ended?
- Bitcoin's price has increased about 30 times in this bullish cycle which started in late 2014 at $135. That is HUGE.
- Adoption by retailers and other real world shops has not increased according to the price increase (in fact, I think we're at the same level than in 2013/14).
- China has strongly restricted ICOs a few days ago. That will lower the demand a bit, although it's not catastrophic, maybe.
- In November, there could be a dangerous hard fork, separating the main development team (Bitcoin Core) from a large part of the Bitcoin economy (miners, Bitpay, Coinbase) on different chains.

Draw your own conclusions. I'm a bit in bearish mood now. I'm still a long term bull

Your thoughts are also logical. However, we can only speculate, it is impossible to predict how the market will be - especially the bitcoin value is quite erratic. Bitcoin is the current Kingcoin, which has confirmed its position and potential since its inception. It will be hard to down to $ 1000 as you think. $ 3000 can happen ( hard) though I do not want to, because Bitcoin is becoming more and more familiar and fixing its downsides!

[Kyraishi]

I 100% agree with you.

In bubbles people are often led into thinking that bitcoin price will continue to go up no matter what, and it is actually not a bubble at all. I personally think that this is ridiculous, as this amount of growth is simply not sustainable and must come to an end soon.

We are still pretty high up, even though we corrected from $5000 to $4500. I think that $3000 by end of October could be a very likely scenario. Though, i think we are going to retest the $5k level before people start dumping still.

Investors are free to do whatever they like, but just remember that this is a bubble, and it is good to be rational in a bubble and not follow the hype.

[pornluver]

I 100% agree with you.

In bubbles people are often led into thinking that bitcoin price will continue to go up no matter what, and it is actually not a bubble at all. I personally think that this is ridiculous, as this amount of growth is simply not sustainable and must come to an end soon.

We are still pretty high up, even though we corrected from $5000 to $4500. I think that $3000 by end of October could be a very likely scenario. Though, i think we are going to retest the $5k level before people start dumping still.

Investors are free to do whatever they like, but just remember that this is a bubble, and it is good to be rational in a bubble and not follow the hype.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2158106.0

I said the same thing.

Goldman sach says it will be $3k

Some says it'll be $2.2k

Also interest rate in poloniex is down. I don't feel like lending money there anymore.

I am doing USDT.

[HeRetiK]

Excellent post and I fully agree with OP.

Keeping a level head and having realistic expectations is important for the community. The more people kick common sense out of the door, the more likely it is for Bitcoin to spectacularly crash. The harder Bitcoin crashes, the longer it will take for the market (including alt coins) to recover.

So stay safe out there, fellow Bitcoiners and crypto-enthusiasts! Don't let yourself go into a bubble mania when the price rises and keep calm when the big dumps come!

[...]

I am doing USDT.

USDT is a ticking timebomb, be careful with that. I wouldn't be surprised if the next major crypto crash / bear market would get triggered by USDT running fractional.

[Febo]

Draw your own conclusions. I'm a bit in bearish mood now. I'm still a long term bull

So say it that way.

Dont invest what you will need next year. Invest what you will need in 5-10 years.  It is so simple. 

And word investing dont mean playing with your money and selling and buying. No. It is just buy and keep it safe. Nothing else. Perfect for lazy people like me.

[BitcoinNewsMagazine]

People tend to forget that all bull market cycles end eventually followed by a painful bear market. The question is where are we now? Take a look at the monthly Bitcoin price on Bitstamp:



We have our first red monthly candle. I explained in this article how $4400 marked an important top in bitcoin price and showed that $7000 was possible but not very likely.

I think the top for this bull cycle is in at $5000. The uncertainty about the November SegWit2X hard fork and the success of Bitcoin Cash could lead to a 50% drop anytime. We just need some bad news, a catalyst for traders to exit. If we enter a bear market expect price to drop to $1200 to $2000 and last for twelve to eighteen months.

Bitcoin has had a very good run from $152 to $5000. You really should be selling now not buying. Maybe keep 20% of your bitcoin but only what you feel comfortable holding through a bear market.

[ragnar0k]

So, a couple of points that were not considered
1- ETF: if it gets approved we might easily go to 10k
2- Bearish market: I don't think we know where we are... Countries are legalizing bitcoins as we speak and the only real crash we had was because infrastructure at the time was pathetic (I mined a bit but I lost the coins when the hard drive died, don't think there was even a reliable wallet back then without downloading the full blockchain)
3- Market standard: The current bubble is high for bitcoin standards, but we are a long shot from wall street standards...
4- Financial attention: We might get into trade market. Russia is looking into this and US might get there too... First lobbies are starting to form on a government level for bitcoin support


You might be right though, we might be near the end (specially given the fork), but if I look on tradingview, and all people trying to predict anything with TA, it is a bit of a tragedy. I like to click play and see what people predicted in the past re. to bitcoin and a 50% success ratio is quite an achievement there. I am just trying to say that there seems to be no real way to tell what to do next...

I'll be holding for the moment, if it goes flat to 3k so be it
I hope bc will wake up again in a couple of years if so.

[Edited]
Regarding the fact that shops did not increase since 2013... Please take a look here
https://coinmap.org/#/world/30.90222471/22.14843750/2

[iamTom123]

I am looking at both sides of the equation when deciding on anything. Now, one thing for sure, whether we are more inclined to believe the bubble burst warning or the more optimistic continual rise, these are all speculations and there is no guarantee that the details will really happen.

Of course, it is always good to be forewarned (so we can be forearmed) but I still believe that after November there are more things to look forward to for Bitcoin by next year. Who knows...2018 can be the banner year for Bitcoin and the prediction that it can be reaching $10,000 might come true.

[alyssa85]

Good post. The following comment of yours is key:

- Adoption by retailers and other real world shops has not increased according to the price increase (in fact, I think we're at the same level than in 2013/14).

Without adoption it's pointless, and is just a ponzi where people pile in, hoping to then sell their coins to other people for more money.

[Eternu]

I think that everything you said could happen, i mean it is not impossible. I have also heard that there will be some new fork, but i did not know the details about it, that i will have to check a bit more. Yes it is totally understandable that after this much rising in price, there needs to be a down fall a bit too. How much it will fall, i do not think we can predict for certain, but it will happen. My opinion is that what ever comes bitcoin will survive.

[HeRetiK]

A few counterpoints to ragnar0k's additions:

So, a couple of points that were not considered
1- ETF: if it gets approved we might easily go to 10k

Most likely already priced in, unfortunately, so might not help us short term. In the long term however, very bullish of course.

2- Bearish market: I don't think we know where we are... Countries are legalizing bitcoins as we speak and the only real crash we had was because infrastructure at the time was pathetic (I mined a bit but I lost the coins when the hard drive died, don't think there was even a reliable wallet back then without downloading the full blockchain)

The infrastructure has come a looong way since 2013, that is very true. However definitely not the only reason for the crashes of days of yore.

3- Market standard: The current bubble is high for bitcoin standards, but we are a long shot from wall street standards...

What do you mean?

Regarding yield I don't think any wall street stock has seen growth like Bitcoin in such a short timeframe, not even during times of bubble.

Regarding market cap Bitcoin is already in the ball park of S&P 500 companies. Unless you mean the whole market of course

4- Financial attention: We might get into trade market. Russia is looking into this and US might get there too... First lobbies are starting to form on a government level for bitcoin support

I believe it when I see it. But true, things are moving in the right direction.

[Pearls Before Swine]

I agree and have said so in other threads,  but somehow I don't  think
we've hit the top yet. I say that because bitcoin didn't drop nearly
as much as I thought it would when we got the latest correction. I
figured we'd drop to the $3000s or lower, and that didn't happen.

The market is still bullish, but we are due for a serious drop.  I don't have
the stomach to short it.

[maokoto]

What you write makes a lots of sense and sounds very reasonable. But markets tend to move more by emotions than by reason. I would not be surprised if it went down a lot, but neither if it raised much too.

[Xavofat]

Interesting.  Most of the posts here are actually quite reasonable.  That could suggest that the bear market is getting closer, because the general sentiment isn't favouring crazy short-term predictions of >$10000.

People won't like what you have to say here.
You'll be shunned and ridiculed.

There's a clear gap between a reasonable warning that is being given here and your points, which are just the same claim that Bitcoin will crash extremely soon.

You always post exactly the same thing no matter how far the price has actually gone up.  Go back two years and look at yourself.

[xFiber]

After reading a lot of perma-bullish postings in this speculation forum, I only want to issue a little warning. Not as a professional trader, but a guy that has been here since 2013.

Be careful! I think we are near the top of a bubble. Don't invest what you cannot afford to lose.

That is valid for Bitcoin and most altcoins at the same time. I think we have overheated - mostly due to the speculation on the Segwit activation - and now we must go down a bit. Probably the rest of the year will be bearish or a sideways market.

What doesn't that "warning" mean?
- It doesn't mean that Bitcoin will go instantly to zero. My prediction is that it will go to $3000, until late October but then, depending on the news, we can go lower (in a worst case scenario, to about $1000).
- It doesn't even mean that $4970 was the top (although I consider it likely). There could be another bullish "leg". But it will most likely be the last one of the year, and I don't think it will reach $10.000.
- It does not mean that "Bitcoin is a bubble". Bitcoin is useful and a great project. But it cannot increase permanently in price. Sometimes there is profit taking, or also a little bit of panic.

Why do I think that the "bubble" ended?
- Bitcoin's price has increased about 30 times in this bullish cycle which started in late 2014 at $135. That is HUGE.
- Adoption by retailers and other real world shops has not increased according to the price increase (in fact, I think we're at the same level than in 2013/14).
- China has strongly restricted ICOs a few days ago. That will lower the demand a bit, although it's not catastrophic, maybe.
- In November, there could be a dangerous hard fork, separating the main development team (Bitcoin Core) from a large part of the Bitcoin economy (miners, Bitpay, Coinbase) on different chains.

Draw your own conclusions. I'm a bit in bearish mood now. I'm still a long term bull

I almost entirely agree with you however I wouldn' call this a bubble yet. I think we hit the top of a big bull run that has been running since 2014. Maybe we will make one final push before we see a major 50% drop. I feel like a bearish market is necessary at some point but I'm also strongly bullish for the long term.

[Torque]

[alyssa85]

What you write makes a lots of sense and sounds very reasonable. But markets tend to move more by emotions than by reason. I would not be surprised if it went down a lot, but neither if it raised much too.

There are lots of noobs coming in, convinced that bitcoin will make them millionaires. And towards the top of a bubble, you often get this emotional uninformed money pushing it up the final leg.

[carlisle1]

I think with this post I will start assessing if how long I can hold my bitcoin savings since there's a lots of possibilities that this statement will happen anytime soon
and with the current earnings that I've got maybe its better to exchange the half of it into fiat for some assurance then the other half can be stored inside my btc
wallet for long term hold.