Alright, be totally honest: who saw this one coming?

[oda.krell]

Thanks for the input, some interesting points were made.

One thing though, I probably should have made my original question a bit more clear: I wasn't really asking for (post-hoc) explanation for why it makes sense that the price went up, but rather was wondering how your own {complex, simple, bordering-on-the-retarded} predictive models fared with this rally.

My interpretation of fundamentals aside (which is bullish mid term), about 24 to 48 hours before the early morning of the 23rd (does it make sense to call that the beginning of the rally?), I was strongly expecting further horizontal movement. And I was proven wrong.

So what I wanted to find out was how you arrived either at the right conclusion, or why you think your own analytical tools didn't catch this one. Bit of a public review of your methods, I guess.

[oda.krell]

[...] Sideways action is usually a bullish sign.

That's were I'm puzzled. We've been trading sideways for 10 days now (the occasional spike upwards or downwards nonwithstanding), no breakout happening during that time. The genesisblock post was relatively early calling it, but was phrased pretty cautious as well. Plus, I think trading sideways is mainly seen as a phase of consolidation, after which the previous dominant trend continues (strengthened). And determining what the dominant trend was/is still an open question (although I'm also leaning more towards up uP UP now )

[notme]

[...] Sideways action is usually a bullish sign.

That's were I'm puzzled. We've been trading sideways for 10 days now (the occasional spike upwards or downwards nonwithstanding), no breakout happening during that time. The genesisblock post was relatively early calling it, but was phrased pretty cautious as well. Plus, I think trading sideways is mainly seen as a phase of consolidation, after which the previous dominant trend continues (strengthened). And determining what the dominant trend was/is still an open question (although I'm also leaning more towards up uP UP now )

You must also keep in mind that bitcoin currently has a higher inflation rate than most fiat currencies, so by not falling it is actually rising.

[Miz4r]

I based my prediction on the assumption that the crash was only a correction and that's why we saw damped oscillation after the crash until we found stable ground at around 110-115. We've built a base there and from there the previous trend upwards from before the hyperbolic rise would have to continue according to my thoughts. I wasn't entirely sure about it and also considered more sideways movement, but I did feel that the most likely outcome would be a slow but significant rise up from 115. When it went up to 120-125 last week this validified my thoughts, so I expected nothing less than a continuation of this trend.

[Gordonium]

I did.

[quantsig]

I mean of course the (mini?) rally of the past 2 days. Did you suspect this would happen?

I can say for sure I wasn't prepared for it at all. Volume was ultra-thin, and the indicators I tend to rely on (e.g. Chaikin money flow) had looked spotty for the past days, so I expected horizontal price movement, with maybe a slight upwards direction, but nothing like what actually happened.

What's your story?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=208397.msg2182378

Then again here.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=215142.0

[dnaleor]

I saw it coming, even told my brother that he should buy some.
If we just look at the logaritmic chart(http://tonycoleby.com/bitcoin.html) you can see we should hit 160$ soon.
I also watched the wall @bitstamp, there was some arbetrage towards MtGox I guess just before Mt Gox really took off.

Based on Tony Coleby's chart, I predict 180-200 (overshoot) before the end of next week, then a drop towards 1150-160$ (undershoot). After this move, we will see a stable price growth of 1.8% daily.

[oda.krell]

I mean of course the (mini?) rally of the past 2 days. Did you suspect this would happen?

I can say for sure I wasn't prepared for it at all. Volume was ultra-thin, and the indicators I tend to rely on (e.g. Chaikin money flow) had looked spotty for the past days, so I expected horizontal price movement, with maybe a slight upwards direction, but nothing like what actually happened.

What's your story?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=208397.msg2182378

Then again here.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=215142.0

just reading through your previous blog posts. don't really understand yet what kind of models you use, but something something ML it seems :-P

[Raoul Duke]

I saw it coming on November 2011, when I invested in my first Bitcoins. Watched from the sidelines for almost a year lol

[quantsig]

I mean of course the (mini?) rally of the past 2 days. Did you suspect this would happen?

I can say for sure I wasn't prepared for it at all. Volume was ultra-thin, and the indicators I tend to rely on (e.g. Chaikin money flow) had looked spotty for the past days, so I expected horizontal price movement, with maybe a slight upwards direction, but nothing like what actually happened.

What's your story?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=208397.msg2182378

Then again here.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=215142.0

just reading through your previous blog posts. don't really understand yet what kind of models you use, but something something ML it seems :-P

Correct, we operate a machine learning and quotation platform which prices many different types of financial instruments, including most BTC pairs.

[smoothie]

I saw it coming on November 2011, when I invested in my first Bitcoins. Watched from the sidelines for almost a year lol

lolzz

You mean right after you had sunk your investment capital into Soiledcoins ?

 

[elux]

I predicted $266 by the weekend. So my prediction was only half right.

 

[meangreen]

i see it coming. a sell off now. traders let it run time to cash in.

[BitSmile]

I see 500$ coins, coming.

[Luckybit]

I've been anticipating sub $20 for weeks. So, not me. 

I didn't have quite that pessimistic an outlook, but like I said, I didn't see this coming either.


and to be honest. I'm a bit surprised about the "well duh, it was obvious" attitude of the other posters. I'm following the wall thread pretty closely, and at least in there, there was nothing like a consensus that we're about to not only break 125. but 130 as well, in one swift motion.

"One swift motion" is relative. $123 to $125 was two days. $125 to $130 was two more days. Those kind of movements used to happen in 2 hours, not 2 days.

In terms of saw it coming, I meant like 6-12 hours before it happened. Bid walls increasing, getting closer to the edge, more depth. As that happened the asks started to fall off (a lot at $130). It was a pretty slow moving rally. Sideways action is usually a bullish sign.

In terms of did you see this coming 1-2-3 weeks ago, no one knows that kind of stuff for sure. You can't predict the DHS stuff. You can't predict getting Goxed. You can't predict Liberty Reserve getting nuked or China cracking down on BTC. We've had a lot of good news, millions of VC money (that never existed in 2011), some conference hype. This is a long slow slide up. Go Bitcoins!

The markets are looking gangsta right now.

[dwdoc]

I can pretty much guarantee a drop from here since I bought at 135.

[Stunna]

Many saw this coming, bitcoins are poised to be THE virtual currency and now that they have become less volatile they are certainly far more desirable.

[Zaih]

Many saw this coming, bitcoins are poised to be THE virtual currency and now that they have become less volatile they are certainly far more desirable.

Which is going to lead to volatility which will lead to a drop in price which will lead to less volatile which will lead to price increase which will lead to price drop.....

*head explodes*

I luv u Bitcoin

[San1ty]

I think almost everyone saw it coming...
Just look at fundamentals instead of those silly technicals...

[yocko06]

everyone in bitcoin saw the price going up at some point. the difference is most traders did not see any signs of this sudden increase. This is a sign that a company is about to tell us something big. All people who know say for example western union is about to start using bitcoin will rush in and buy up as much as they can all at the same time. I am not saying western union is doing anything of the sort it just an example.