Bitcoin will fail

[Birdy]

Then bitcoin is a speculative casino with little real world value that is usable for commerce.

Last time I've checked casinos had a pretty big real life value (at least if value = moneyvalue).

[CtrlAltBernanke420]

If there is no real underlying value to bitcoin, eventually it will drop much closer to the actual cost of producing a bitcoin, whatever that may be

[nosurrender]

I don´t think, Bitcoin has to have the goal to take over or replace FIAT of any kind or origin. At this time, as no one really can say, where any Cryptocurrency will end a month oder a year or a decade from now, this is not the problem Bitcoin is facing. Any currency is only as much worth as someone (or a lot of someones) is willing to trade in in goods or another currency which is considered stable and precious.

Bitcoin has seen a dramatic rise in just a few month and I think there isn´t anyone out there who has a "feeling" of Bitcoin´s worth if not compared to FIAT. If I think of a Dollar or a EURO, I can imagine a lot of things I could get for it. If I think of a Bitcoin (or a fraction of it), I compare it to the actual price in Dollar or Euro, not to any actual goods of daily living. So I think - at least now - comparing Bitcoin to Dollar is comparing apples and oranges.

This only changes, if Bitcoin becomes a serious currency in (best case) daily trades. If it becomes "normal" - in use, not in concept. Therefore: of course most stores out there will refuse to sell you farming equipment for Bitcoin instead of Dollars. But that does not mean, the "real" value of Bitcoin could not be estimated, because it is at any time exactly worth as much as you´re able to get for it.

Just my two cents. Or: just my two Satoshi. Same same

[CtrlAltBernanke420]

I don´t think, Bitcoin has to have the goal to take over or replace FIAT of any kind or origin. At this time, as no one really can say, where any Cryptocurrency will end a month oder a year or a decade from now, this is not the problem Bitcoin is facing. Any currency is only as much worth as someone (or a lot of someones) is willing to trade in in goods or another currency which is considered stable and precious.

Bitcoin has seen a dramatic rise in just a few month and I think there isn´t anyone out there who has a "feeling" of Bitcoin´s worth if not compared to FIAT. If I think of a Dollar or a EURO, I can imagine a lot of things I could get for it. If I think of a Bitcoin (or a fraction of it), I compare it to the actual price in Dollar or Euro, not to any actual goods of daily living. So I think - at least now - comparing Bitcoin to Dollar is comparing apples and oranges.

This only changes, if Bitcoin becomes a serious currency in (best case) daily trades. If it becomes "normal" - in use, not in concept. Therefore: of course most stores out there will refuse to sell you farming equipment for Bitcoin instead of Dollars. But that does not mean, the "real" value of Bitcoin could not be estimated, because it is at any time exactly worth as much as you´re able to get for it.

Just my two cents. Or: just my two Satoshi. Same same

I agree, I understand this point of view. It is the most likely one we will experience regardless of the amount of mental gynastics we do. But what remains true on top of all this, the value of a bitcoin is purely speculative. It can and likely will go down if there are not places to actually spend bitcoins inexpensively. (exchange rate + processing fees)

Granted in this world of easy money, it will likely experience massive volatility, which is okay for the gold 2.0 bugs. It may experience long term growth, but not because of any reason other than speculative. It remains one of the most risky, least understood concepts on earth, as well as potentially high reward. But why?  Just because?

I can imagine if I had 10,000-100,000 bitcoins(which I surely do not) because if i did I would be on a different beach every day sipping on tequila, not on this dumb computer socializing with the unsocial...

Anyways, if i had that many, I would feel like a god, as I get to give birth to new productive economies based on hard, honest working men and women.... and children, lol.

And  I would feed the sweat equity the coins and captial necessary to build all of that.

[DeathAndTaxes]

Why bother with bitcoin, why do I not just go get a loan from the bank, or find a private investor who may or may not take my land if I endure a drought.

I think you may be a little self centered.  Just because Bitcoin doesn't work for you for your one very specific and niche usage today doesn't mean Bitcoin has failed.

I can't buy a candy bar with a dollar in Spain.
I can't buy just about anything with a gold bar.
It doesn't mean dollars and gold are useless they just aren't useful in all circumstances.

[lassdas]

the current process of buying bitcoin is ineffiecient, and way overpriced compared the cost of mining.

What's inefficient about the current process of buying bitcoin?
And how is it in any way related to the cost of mining?

You see, my actual goal is find investors to invest in a farm and produce worthy tangible items. So I would need a miner to invest bitcoin in me

And why would those investors need to be miners?
What has an investment in your project todo with mining (or as mentioned by you before, with the cost of mining)?

Why bother with bitcoin, why do I not just go get a loan from the bank, or find a private investor who may or may not take my land if I endure a drought.

Cool, I asked you 4 questions and you answered none.

[DeathAndTaxes]

And  I would feed the sweat equity the coins and captial necessary to build all of that.

I am sure you wouldn't do it at a $6 exchange rate though.

[CtrlAltBernanke420]

the current process of buying bitcoin is ineffiecient, and way overpriced compared the cost of mining.

if oil cost $5/barrel to drill, you would see much lower prices for gas at the pump. The market is only willing to pay such a large spread before alternatives are seeked.
What's inefficient about the current process of buying bitcoin?
And how is it in any way related to the cost of mining? When I buy aapl stock, atleast I know it has some value, and potential future value. Bitcoin not so much

You see, my actual goal is find investors to invest in a farm and produce worthy tangible items. So I would need a miner to invest bitcoin in me

And why would those investors need to be miners?  Why bother converting into bitcoin, how else does one obtain a bitcoin other than earning through miners investing it, or purchasing off another bitcoin holder.
What has an investment in your project todo with mining (or as mentioned by you before, with the cost of mining)?It is inefficient and high risk to wire money to an exchange, if the goal is a bitcoin based economy, so we can find a tangible price of a bitcoin(price discovery that is beyond trading beaver tails) the miners are the central banks that inject capital into the society

Why bother with bitcoin, why do I not just go get a loan from the bank, or find a private investor who may or may not take my land if I endure a drought.

Cool, I asked you 4 questions and you answered none.

[glendall]

Pretty much all of OP's arguments have already been disproved by BTC already having gone from being worthless to over a $130 usd in very few years.

[CtrlAltBernanke420]

And  I would feed the sweat equity the coins and captial necessary to build all of that.

I am sure you wouldn't do it at a $6 exchange rate though.

The goal is that, 1 satoshi needs to find its value that more or less represents 1 dollar. IE 1 BTC = 100,000,000$

in the beginning sweat equity is more or less slave labor, aside from fiat expenses agreed to be covered until farm becomes productive. I can then charge 5 satoshis for 1 pound of meat.

or 1 satoshi for a bundle of carrots.

I can hire labor for 1 satoshi an hour, as long as laborer harvests more than 40 satoshi's worth or produce/hour, I can employ him, be profitable, laborer can then send wages home as the wage itself was earned because productivity of the farm because of the bitcoin investment.

[CtrlAltBernanke420]

Pretty much all of OP's arguments have already been disproved by BTC already having gone from being worthless to over a $130 usd in very few years.

Why are global investors and banks not panic buying?

[glendall]

Because BTC is currently what, somewhere along the lines of 0.0000000000000001% of the world economy?  

They will. In the future many gov's, especially the good ole American empire, will go to great lengths to disrupt BTC as much as possible.

Investors on the other hand will see the opportunity and will get involved, to profit.

[CtrlAltBernanke420]

Because BTC is currently what, somewhere along the lines of 0.0000000000000001% of the world economy?  

They will. In the future many gov's, especially the good ole American empire, will go to great lengths to disrupt BTC as much as possible.

They can not disrupt it if we remove the dollar part of it, quite the contrary, an incredibly honest system can takeover incredibily quickly. Otherwise, the irrational exuberence the market will place on bitcoin over the next few years/decades will lead to "our own collective end." - lyrics from this amazing song.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pUVx13nBIhI

It's not like there's a book for this or something you could read
Cuz I’ve looked around
I tried to fill these holes with other roles I never learned to play
It seems like they always falter
How the hell should I know
Cuz it always seems to disappear so quickly you can’t see
Could somebody tell me where does the time go
I’ve got a bigger pile of questions than I could ever need
There’s no explaining these to me

I’ve never heard a word about the way we’re all received
At least that I believe in
I know traditions tell it's different, they spell it all it out to me
There’s no need to confuse me cuz I know what I know
And if everyone’s all subscribed to fictions that can’t be right
Then spinning we all collide one big typo this puppet show

I’d usually begin this conversation differently
I know it's kinda one sided
It’s obvious the answer is a question I believe
That no body’s asking
Now how the hell should I know
If everyone’s so unsure of
What's really below or above us
Then maybe we all buy in
Take our own collective end?

[glendall]

Oh never said they will be successful.

They may be succesful to some various extents, but no hegemonic entity will be able to terminate Bitcoin.

Bitcoin will triumph. I think it will be around until it will be replaced, eventually, by a superior coin somewhere down the line.

You can't kill good ideas, and it's very tough to beat fantastic software that is distributed in nature.

Absolute worse case I can conceive as possible is that BTC is banned worldwide by every government. And even in this scenario, it will succeed and gain value, as a currency limited to only the blackmarket (drugs and laundering.)

[nosurrender]

The goal is that, 1 satoshi needs to find its value that more or less represents 1 dollar. IE 1 BTC = 100,000,000$

in the beginning sweat equity is more or less slave labor, aside from fiat expenses agreed to be covered until farm becomes productive. I can then charge 5 satoshis for 1 pound of meat.

or 1 satoshi for a bundle of carrots.

I can hire labor for 1 satoshi an hour, as long as laborer harvests more than 40 satoshi's worth or produce/hour, I can employ him, be profitable, laborer can then send wages home as the wage itself was earned because productivity of the farm because of the bitcoin investment.

At current rates you could charge 0.04 BTC for 1 pound of meat. If current exchange rates doubled you could charge 0.08 BTC for 1 pound of meat. Maybe I´m stupid, but I don´t really see the need for your mentioned goal. But if you (and many other) would start selling goods for BTC, BTC itself would get value without the need to compare it FIAT.

[foggyb]

.........Otherwise, the irrational exuberence the market will place on bitcoin over the next few years/decades will lead to "our own collective end."

"Will" place? So you don't think the price is irrational now after all. I agree with you. The 21 million bitcoins can never again cost $6 each simply because of supply and demand (barring a network collapse). If you believe demand is never going higher than now and will, in fact drop, then you might have a case. But you haven't even tried to make that case.

[foggyb]

The goal is that, 1 satoshi needs to find its value that more or less represents 1 dollar. IE 1 BTC = 100,000,000$

in the beginning sweat equity is more or less slave labor, aside from fiat expenses agreed to be covered until farm becomes productive. I can then charge 5 satoshis for 1 pound of meat.

or 1 satoshi for a bundle of carrots.

I can hire labor for 1 satoshi an hour, as long as laborer harvests more than 40 satoshi's worth or produce/hour, I can employ him, be profitable, laborer can then send wages home as the wage itself was earned because productivity of the farm because of the bitcoin investment.

There's no need to reinvent the wheel. Bitcoin are bought and sold at rational market rates, right now.

[CtrlAltBernanke420]

.........Otherwise, the irrational exuberence the market will place on bitcoin over the next few years/decades will lead to "our own collective end."

"Will" place? So you don't think the price is irrational now after all. I agree with you. The 21 million bitcoins can never again cost $6 each simply because of supply and demand (barring a network collapse). If you believe demand is never going higher than now and will, in fact drop, then you might have a case. But you haven't even tried to make that case.

if it were to drop in price because of market forces, it is because the market is seeking rational price discovery. Current price discovery and all future price discovery will be irrational until BTC finds its own purchasing power value completely without the dollar.

It remains a speculative casino, that may see a very large increase in fiat based wealth, but does nothing for a bitcoin at its core.

[QuestionAuthority]

I've been reading your other posts and wondering when you would post something like this. You are using rationalizations based on fallacy to attempt to guide logic your direction. It won't work here. Better posters than you have tried and failed.  

It's ok OP. Daddy's got ya. It's all just a dream now back to sleep. Bitcoin can't hurt you anymore.

So much that's posted here is crap now that I just can't stop myself from making fun of it. I think I need a forum 12 Step Plan or something.

[CtrlAltBernanke420]

The goal is that, 1 satoshi needs to find its value that more or less represents 1 dollar. IE 1 BTC = 100,000,000$

in the beginning sweat equity is more or less slave labor, aside from fiat expenses agreed to be covered until farm becomes productive. I can then charge 5 satoshis for 1 pound of meat.

or 1 satoshi for a bundle of carrots.

I can hire labor for 1 satoshi an hour, as long as laborer harvests more than 40 satoshi's worth or produce/hour, I can employ him, be profitable, laborer can then send wages home as the wage itself was earned because productivity of the farm because of the bitcoin investment.

There's no need to reinvent the wheel. Bitcoin are bought and sold at rational market rates, right now.

I disagree that these prices are rational market rates. I will never argue with the market itself, as I beleive the market is always right, yet historically it is often wrong..(other global markets)

 These virtual currency(s) have a lot of untested waters to sail through.