ASICs are Over priced

[mmitech]

ASICminer is one of the few who delivered something that actually is in stock (not a Pr-order) and works right away out of the box, but I think that these ASICs in general are way over priced, regardless how much money you will make the first month (on This deff.factor, and BTC price), because when I invest my money I look at the long-term aspect.

A blockErupter @ 10 GH/s for 60+ BTC is really over priced this is ~ 7500 $ , my suggestion is a max of 20 BTC .
The USB miner @ 300MH/s for 2.5 BTC as well is really over priced ~ 315 $, my suggestion is a max of 0.8 BTC  .

Avalon had 3 batches with total a of 1500 Unit, allowing customers to buy a max of 3 units for each customer, but I know people who ordered 3 units on all 3 batches, so do the math and I am sorry to tell you, you cant join the AVALON club


BFL, well what can I say about BFL, if they just really had something to deliver on time , they really have a reasonable price.   


why I stopped caring about ASICs and mining BTC in general is for this exact reason, as a small miner and a father of 4 kids, there is no way that I can afford to buy these ASICs, I know that these chips are the future of BTC mining and it is really a good thing for the network security, but the fact that there is a VIP club or let me put it in other words, a club of people with a bag of money investing in these ASICs, which means that few people controlling a big part of the network, just because these prices doesn't allow all of us to participate and get the chance to be a part of it.

these company’s are making a huge profit out of you guys. the first batch of blockErupter went for around 19xx BTC this is more than 240,000 $ for 50 blocks( 500 GH/s)


Just think about it

[1715240559]

1715240559

[KS]

@mmitech:
You're absolutely right.

The current ASIC prices are based on what you would earn right now with one of them. Prices will come down as the revenues decrease.

The best strategy for you is to keep on mining until your equipment is not costing you money, then upgrade to whatever will be available within your budget in, say, 6-8 months (wait out the ASIC gold rush).

When everyone and their ponies will have ASICs, prices will be democratic again. There will be pro miners with big mining farms too, but that's no different from now.

[k9quaint]

ASICminer is one of the few who delivered something that actually is in stock (not a Pr-order) and works right away out of the box, but I think that these ASICs in general are way over priced, regardless how much money you will make the first month (on This deff.factor, and BTC price), because when I invest my money I look at the long-term aspect.

A blockErupter @ 10 GH/s for 60+ BTC is really over priced this is ~ 7500 $ , my suggestion is a max of 20 BTC .
The USB miner @ 300MH/s for 2.5 BTC as well is really over priced ~ 315 $, my suggestion is a max of 0.8 BTC  .

Avalon had 3 batches with total a of 1500 Unit, allowing customers to buy a max of 3 units for each customer, but I know people who ordered 3 units on all 3 batches, so do the math and I am sorry to tell you, you cant join the AVALON club


BFL, well what can I say about BFL, if they just really had something to deliver on time , they really have a reasonable price.   


why I stopped caring about ASICs and mining BTC in general is for this exact reason, as a small miner and a father of 4 kids, there is no way that I can afford to buy these ASICs, I know that these chips are the future of BTC mining and it is really a good thing for the network security, but the fact that there is a VIP club or let me put it in other words, a club of people with a bag of money investing in these ASICs, which means that few people controlling a big part of the network, just because these prices doesn't allow all of us to participate and get the chance to be a part of it.

these company’s are making a huge profit out of you guys. the first batch of blockErupter went for around 19xx BTC this is more than 240,000 $ for 50 blocks( 500 GH/s)


Just think about it

ASICMiner and Avalon are choosing to charge whatever the market will bear. BFL is not able to deliver in enough volume to affect the price of mining equipment.

[VJain]

A few disorganized thoughts regarding this...

- A few people who bought in the first batch were buying for novelty more than looking for a ROI.
- Increasing distribution of the network hashing increases the overall security of the network... increasing the value of bitcoin. If you have a large stake in bitcoin, even a 2% increase in it's value could cause your initial investment to pay itself off.
- Increasing the distribution of the network also helps prevent bitcoin from being "compromised" (I won't go into this - 51% attacks, blah blah blah), helping it from crashing and burning - helping prevent a 100% crash in price.


My 2¢.

[dogie]

What are you shitting. An erupter blade is 13 GH for 50btc delivered globally within 3 days. ROI is 120-180 days depending on when you bought.

[btceic]

ASICminer is one of the few who delivered something that actually is in stock (not a Pr-order) and works right away out of the box, but I think that these ASICs in general are way over priced, regardless how much money you will make the first month (on This deff.factor, and BTC price), because when I invest my money I look at the long-term aspect.

A blockErupter @ 10 GH/s for 60+ BTC is really over priced this is ~ 7500 $ , my suggestion is a max of 20 BTC .
The USB miner @ 300MH/s for 2.5 BTC as well is really over priced ~ 315 $, my suggestion is a max of 0.8 BTC  .

Avalon had 3 batches with total a of 1500 Unit, allowing customers to buy a max of 3 units for each customer, but I know people who ordered 3 units on all 3 batches, so do the math and I am sorry to tell you, you cant join the AVALON club


BFL, well what can I say about BFL, if they just really had something to deliver on time , they really have a reasonable price.  


why I stopped caring about ASICs and mining BTC in general is for this exact reason, as a small miner and a father of 4 kids, there is no way that I can afford to buy these ASICs, I know that these chips are the future of BTC mining and it is really a good thing for the network security, but the fact that there is a VIP club or let me put it in other words, a club of people with a bag of money investing in these ASICs, which means that few people controlling a big part of the network, just because these prices doesn't allow all of us to participate and get the chance to be a part of it.

these company’s are making a huge profit out of you guys. the first batch of blockErupter went for around 19xx BTC this is more than 240,000 $ for 50 blocks( 500 GH/s)


Just think about it

100% agree, and am in a similar situation as you, twins rather than 4 kids but still all the same.

Bottom line is neither of us have the resources to buy now (most of my funds are tied up in stocks etc) so we will have to just wait it out till prices become reasonable for people like us to get in the game.

What you can do right now though is invest in some of the asic miner's that have dividends. I can personally vouch for the TAT.ASICMINER shares, bought 10 about 2-3 weeks ago, sold them for a profit, thinking I was going to be able to get one of the USB miners for .5BTC but alas they came out at 1.99, too expensive for the ROI and Hash Rate.

[btceic]

What are you shitting. An erupter blade is 13 GH for 50btc delivered globally within 3 days. ROI is 120-180 days depending on when you bought.

True but not all of us have $7000-$9000 laying around to be invested in a bleeding edge might be technology.

[mmitech]

What are you shitting. An erupter blade is 13 GH for 50btc delivered globally within 3 days. ROI is 120-180 days depending on when you bought.

first batch went for at least 75 BTC https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178275.0
second batch went for at least 50BTC https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=189248.0
third batch was price fixed @ 50 BTC so you could order all blades right away , some did start with 10 blades order they sold out when I knew about the batch. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=201753.0


and with all do respect, we are just discussing a subject here, there is no need to get angry and aggressive. keep it nice and smooth .

[dogie]

What are you shitting. An erupter blade is 13 GH for 50btc delivered globally within 3 days. ROI is 120-180 days depending on when you bought.

True but not all of us have $7000-$9000 laying around to be invested in a bleeding edge might be technology.

Then bitcoin is not your game. Speculate to accumulate, spectate to procrastinate.

[dogie]

What are you shitting. An erupter blade is 13 GH for 50btc delivered globally within 3 days. ROI is 120-180 days depending on when you bought.

first batch went for at least 75 BTC https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178275.0
second batch went for at least 50BTC https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=189248.0
third batch was price fixed @ 50 BTC so you could order all blades right away , some did start with 10 blades order they sold out when I knew about the batch. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=201753.0


and with all do respect, we are just discussing a subject here, there is no need to get angry and aggressive. keep it nice and smooth .

Angry and aggressive? You were just plain wrong while qq'ing about a topic no one cares about.

[k9quaint]

What are you shitting. An erupter blade is 13 GH for 50btc delivered globally within 3 days. ROI is 120-180 days depending on when you bought.

That is a good return, but compare the price to the Avalon units and 50BTC for 12GH/s is fairly pricey. On the other hand, the erupter blades are actually available.
The erupter blades will make money, but not everyone has $8K to drop on a single piece of hashing equipment.

[mmitech]

What are you shitting. An erupter blade is 13 GH for 50btc delivered globally within 3 days. ROI is 120-180 days depending on when you bought.

first batch went for at least 75 BTC https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178275.0
second batch went for at least 50BTC https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=189248.0
third batch was price fixed @ 50 BTC so you could order all blades right away , some did start with 10 blades order they sold out when I knew about the batch. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=201753.0


and with all do respect, we are just discussing a subject here, there is no need to get angry and aggressive. keep it nice and smooth .

Angry and aggressive? You were just plain wrong while qq'ing about a topic no one cares about.

I see that you do care, am I wrong ? otherwise you wouldn't waste your time reading and replying to such a thing .

[btceic]

What are you shitting. An erupter blade is 13 GH for 50btc delivered globally within 3 days. ROI is 120-180 days depending on when you bought.

True but not all of us have $7000-$9000 laying around to be invested in a bleeding edge might be technology.

Then bitcoin is not your game. Speculate to accumulate, spectate to procrastinate.

Well too bad then, because I am making it my game, with the little that I have, I will make something out of it.

For all of the people out there that don't have $9000.00 to drop on a single piece of hardware, don't be discouraged by folks like the above. Do what you can, build upon what you have, this is not a race, it's a marathon, just because you don't get your shiny new toy today does not mean that it wont make a difference in the future. Keep saving everyday, sell stuff, do jobs on the side and you will get to where you want to be.

Edit: spelling

[Bitcoinorama]

An ASIC chip costs between $0.50 and $2 to manufacture dependant on volume and mask intricacy.

[pikeadz]

I really don't understand the complaint.  I can't afford a Ferrari or a Lamborghini, but I don't whine about it on a public message board.  

If your concern was really about securing the network (as opposed to profit), you would just buy some ASIC Miner shares at an amount you could afford, or even some of the escrowed group buys that people on the forum have been advertising.  Then your money is going toward increased hashing.  I suspect you just want to make a ton of money though, and are bitter that you can't afford to buy an ASIC of your own.  Am I right?

[Xian01]

True but not all of us have $7000-$9000 laying around to be invested in a bleeding edge might be technology.

I might recommend picking up some ASICMINER-PT shares if you are thinking of getting into Bitcoin and don't want to invest in mining hardware.

Disclosure: ASICMiner-PT & TAT.ASICMiner shareholder and USB Block Erupter miner.

[seleme]

What are you shitting. An erupter blade is 13 GH for 50btc delivered globally within 3 days. ROI is 120-180 days depending on when you bought.

first batch went for at least 75 BTC https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178275.0
second batch went for at least 50BTC https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=189248.0
third batch was price fixed @ 50 BTC so you could order all blades right away , some did start with 10 blades order they sold out when I knew about the batch. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=201753.0


and with all do respect, we are just discussing a subject here, there is no need to get angry and aggressive. keep it nice and smooth .

It's AsicMiner you are talking about. Don't you dare to think you won't get angry answers if you don't say it's beautiful feeling to pay something that would make loads of money to AM and eventually make ROI for you 

[mmitech]

I really don't understand the complaint.  I can't afford a Ferrari or a Lamborghini, but I don't whine about it on a public message board.  

If your concern was really about securing the network (as opposed to profit), you would just buy some ASIC Miner shares at an amount you could afford, or even some of the escrowed group buys that people on the forum have been advertising.  Then your money is going toward increased hashing.  I suspect you just want to make a ton of money though, and are bitter that you can't afford to buy an ASIC of your own.  Am I right?

I cant afford a Ferrari as well, but I have allot of alternatives which suite my budget, and yes I do not care only about the network security I would like to mine Bitcoin and use the side profit to support my family, this is nothing wrong, am I right ? and I do not have the 9000 $ to join your club, and even if I had I wouldn't pay that much because I think long term, these asics could be at reasonable price so all of us could buy one, and companys  would still make a load of money. you are just missing the point here. these ASICs are not worth all that money, with these prices you are limiting the customers to a small group of people.
  

[btceic]

I really don't understand the complaint.  I can't afford a Ferrari or a Lamborghini, but I don't whine about it on a public message board.  

If your concern was really about securing the network (as opposed to profit), you would just buy some ASIC Miner shares at an amount you could afford, or even some of the escrowed group buys that people on the forum have been advertising.  Then your money is going toward increased hashing.  I suspect you just want to make a ton of money though, and are bitter that you can't afford to buy an ASIC of your own.  Am I right?

I cant afford a Ferrari as well, but I have allot of alternatives which suite my budget, and yes I do not care only about the network security I would like to mine Bitcoin and use the side profit to support my family, this is nothing wrong, am I right ? and I do not have the 9000 $ to join your club, and even if I had I wouldn't pay that much because I think long term, these asics could be at reasonable price so all of us could buy one, and companys  would still make a load of money. you are just missing the point here. these ASICs are not worth all that money, with these prices you are limiting the customers to a small group of people.
  

These guys are throwing around these numbers probably because they have been mining for a while and where able to mine bitcoins before they where $100.00+ a piece.

[mmitech]

I really don't understand the complaint.  I can't afford a Ferrari or a Lamborghini, but I don't whine about it on a public message board.  

If your concern was really about securing the network (as opposed to profit), you would just buy some ASIC Miner shares at an amount you could afford, or even some of the escrowed group buys that people on the forum have been advertising.  Then your money is going toward increased hashing.  I suspect you just want to make a ton of money though, and are bitter that you can't afford to buy an ASIC of your own.  Am I right?

I cant afford a Ferrari as well, but I have allot of alternatives which suite my budget, and yes I do not care only about the network security I would like to mine Bitcoin and use the side profit to support my family, this is nothing wrong, am I right ? and I do not have the 9000 $ to join your club, and even if I had I wouldn't pay that much because I think long term, these asics could be at reasonable price so all of us could buy one, and companys  would still make a load of money. you are just missing the point here. these ASICs are not worth all that money, with these prices you are limiting the customers to a small group of people.
  

These guys are throwing around these numbers probably because they have been mining for a while and where able to mine bitcoins before they where $100.00+ a piece.

regardless when they did start mining, they are just ignoring my point here !

[Xian01]

I cant afford a Ferrari as well, but I have allot of alternatives which suite my budget ... and I do not have the 9000 $ to join your club

 So don't drop $9k then. You can get an AMD 7950 for ~$300 to get your feet wet.

 ... an alternative to suit your budget.

[btceic]

I cant afford a Ferrari as well, but I have allot of alternatives which suite my budget ... and I do not have the 9000 $ to join your club

 So don't drop $9k then. You can get an AMD 7950 for ~$300 to get your feet wet.

 ... an alternative to suit your budget.

To be clear here, this is what most of us are doing, at least I am, and reinvesting into PT shares or similar.

[mmitech]

I cant afford a Ferrari as well, but I have allot of alternatives which suite my budget ... and I do not have the 9000 $ to join your club

 So don't drop $9k then. You can get an AMD 7950 for ~$300 to get your feet wet.

 ... an alternative to suit your budget.

this is what I am doing now, but think about 2-3 weeks from now, I wont be able to mine with my GPU. and I cant get an ASIC as well, only few people have that blessing. it is nothing personal thought, I am thinking out loud, and I believe that allot of people are doing the same.

[HTML5 Gordon]

I cant afford a Ferrari as well, but I have allot of alternatives which suite my budget ... and I do not have the 9000 $ to join your club

 So don't drop $9k then. You can get an AMD 7950 for ~$300 to get your feet wet.

 ... an alternative to suit your budget.

Exactly.  And they they can just scale up over time.  Patience (and an intelligent use of coins) is required for those who don't have enough coins/money saved to start out with a lot of hashing power.  

But anyone can get started and grow their power over time.  No need being bitter about others being able to afford more hash than you.

I would like to mine Bitcoin and use the side profit to support my family, this is nothing wrong, am I right ? and I do not have the 9000 $ to join your club, and even if I had I wouldn't pay that much

By saying that you don't have the money to join the "club", but also saying you'd like to mine and earn to support your family, means that you need to mine and put all your coins back into mining and scale up - eventually you'd be able to afford more powerful hardware.  For many of the people in the "club", that is exactly how it was done.

Why would you not invest the money if you had it?  I'm not sure how you can complain about others being able to afford it, say that you want to mine to help your family with the profits, but also say that you wouldn't invest to do it even if you could.  Huh?  What exactly is this all about then?

[pikeadz]

I really don't understand the complaint.  I can't afford a Ferrari or a Lamborghini, but I don't whine about it on a public message board.  

If your concern was really about securing the network (as opposed to profit), you would just buy some ASIC Miner shares at an amount you could afford, or even some of the escrowed group buys that people on the forum have been advertising.  Then your money is going toward increased hashing.  I suspect you just want to make a ton of money though, and are bitter that you can't afford to buy an ASIC of your own.  Am I right?

I cant afford a Ferrari as well, but I have allot of alternatives which suite my budget, and yes I do not care only about the network security I would like to mine Bitcoin and use the side profit to support my family, this is nothing wrong, am I right ? and I do not have the 9000 $ to join your club, and even if I had I wouldn't pay that much because I think long term, these asics could be at reasonable price so all of us could buy one, and companys  would still make a load of money. you are just missing the point here. these ASICs are not worth all that money, with these prices you are limiting the customers to a small group of people.
  

I am not sure how you came to the conclusion that they are not worth "all that money."  Quite simply, ASICs are worth exactly what someone is willing to pay for them.  So they are not overpriced at their current price point because that is what they sell for.  Once again, just because YOU can't afford one does not mean they are overpriced.

[KS]

I cant afford a Ferrari as well, but I have allot of alternatives which suite my budget ... and I do not have the 9000 $ to join your club

 So don't drop $9k then. You can get an AMD 7950 for ~$300 to get your feet wet.

 ... an alternative to suit your budget.

this is what I am doing now, but think about 2-3 weeks from now, I wont be able to mine with my GPU. and I cant get an ASIC as well, only few people have that blessing. it is nothing personal thought, I am thinking out loud, and I believe that allot of people are doing the same.

You should probably get into a groupbuy and get a klondike16. That will cost less than a GPU and turn about 4.5GH/s.

If you don't feel too adventurous about it right now, wait a month or three, mine with your GPU (it's not like anything bad will happen to it in the meantime) then find the most reliable seller you can buy a K16 from (and eventually sell your GPU on ebay).

This is going to be the cheapest way to stay "current" in bitcoin mining, unless BFL start shipping like there's no tomorrow (if you believe in that...).

I'm all about supporting the klondike cottage industry, even if Avalon profits from it. It's a way for the community to keep the other ASIC vendors "honest".

[nosurrender]

I really don't understand the complaint.  I can't afford a Ferrari or a Lamborghini, but I don't whine about it on a public message board.  

If your concern was really about securing the network (as opposed to profit), you would just buy some ASIC Miner shares at an amount you could afford, or even some of the escrowed group buys that people on the forum have been advertising.  Then your money is going toward increased hashing.  I suspect you just want to make a ton of money though, and are bitter that you can't afford to buy an ASIC of your own.  Am I right?

Sorry to "intrude" but IMHO your missing the point. The network didn´t grow and prosper because of a few "investors" with enough money to take over a considerable amount of combined hashing power. As far as I know, one of the core principles of Bitcoin is the ability of as many participants as possible - the more the merrier. No trust issues because of the big big numbers of participants. The chance to earn new coins now and to earn from fees later. No centralized control. No centralized power over the currency.

When participating with CPU - no problem. Anyone with a computer could participate without considerable cost.
When participating with GPU - no problem. Anyone with a newer computer could participate without considerable cost.
ASICs are not only a completely new game, it´s completely new sport.

When buying shares from whoever, there is nevertheless a centralized huge hashing power beyond the control of many.
When buying ASICs now because of deep pockets of a few and profiting huge in the coming few month and "reinvesting" that money after massiv increase of difficulty bears the risk of centralizing instead of decentralizing.

A lot of people (and I assume the creators of Bitcoins) wanted a currency that depends NOT on the decisions of a few. You can call this "few" government, feds, Bundesbank or Oligipoly of rich ASIC  "investors". Bitcoin is more than a network, more than a way to print your own money and more than a kindergarden of tech-freaks. If the community doesn´t respect the principles, Bitcoin will go down the road of any actual currency. I don't want a "FED" consisting of a handful of miners with hashing power no one with a computer can do anything about.

I trust a network build of thousands of family men with a computer a lot more than a network of elite ASICs.

No offense - just my two cents.

[jspielberg]

I cant afford a Ferrari as well, but I have allot of alternatives which suite my budget ... and I do not have the 9000 $ to join your club

 So don't drop $9k then. You can get an AMD 7950 for ~$300 to get your feet wet.

 ... an alternative to suit your budget.

this is what I am doing now, but think about 2-3 weeks from now, I wont be able to mine with my GPU. and I cant get an ASIC as well, only few people have that blessing. it is nothing personal thought, I am thinking out loud, and I believe that allot of people are doing the same.

The conventional wisdom in GPU mining these days is to move to LTC.

[mmitech]

By saying that you don't have the money to join the "club", but also saying you'd like to mine and earn to support your family, means that you need to mine and put all your coins back into mining and scale up - eventually you'd be able to afford more powerful hardware.  For many of the people in the "club", that is exactly how it was done.

Why would you not invest the money if you had it?  I'm not sure how you can complain about others being able to afford it, say that you want to mine to help your family with the profits, but also say that you wouldn't invest to do it even if you could.  Huh?  What exactly is this all about then?

I see that allot of people are missing the point here or just ignoring it, lets say that I am buying a ATI 7950 cards and you are selling each for 1500 $ and you are the only one that have it on stock, I wont buy it even if had the money and even if there is some one out there willing to pay that price, this doesn't mean that the 7950 costs that much, it only means that you are using your position to make a shit load of profit on customers needs. this what I cant get , this is the hole point that you are all missing these prototypes are over priced , we could all have one if they just sold them for their real value    

[niko]

Absolutely overpriced. Paying BTC2.5 for ~300 MH/s or even BTC50 for ~10 GH/s does not make sense. You can get 300 MH/s GPU equivalent for ~BTC1. Sure, the power cost is higher, but this is not the main factor at these initial prices of hardware. Also, GPUs at least have some resale value if you decide to get out. Overall, migrating to the new technology does not make sense yet, as market is far from equilibrium.

I am glad to see not everyone sees things my way, because that is exactly what makes my decision meaningful. Good luck to you all. I will wait for the right opportunity to get some ASICs.

[mmitech]

I really don't understand the complaint.  I can't afford a Ferrari or a Lamborghini, but I don't whine about it on a public message board.  

If your concern was really about securing the network (as opposed to profit), you would just buy some ASIC Miner shares at an amount you could afford, or even some of the escrowed group buys that people on the forum have been advertising.  Then your money is going toward increased hashing.  I suspect you just want to make a ton of money though, and are bitter that you can't afford to buy an ASIC of your own.  Am I right?

Sorry to "intrude" but IMHO your missing the point. The network didn´t grow and prosper because of a few "investors" with enough money to take over a considerable amount of combined hashing power. As far as I know, one of the core principles of Bitcoin is the ability of as many participants as possible - the more the merrier. No trust issues because of the big big numbers of participants. The chance to earn new coins now and to earn from fees later. No centralized control. No centralized power over the currency.

When participating with CPU - no problem. Anyone with a computer could participate without considerable cost.
When participating with GPU - no problem. Anyone with a newer computer could participate without considerable cost.
ASICs are not only a completely new game, it´s completely new sport.

When buying shares from whoever, there is nevertheless a centralized huge hashing power beyond the control of many.
When buying ASICs now because of deep pockets of a few and profiting huge in the coming few month and "reinvesting" that money after massiv increase of difficulty bears the risk of centralizing instead of decentralizing.

A lot of people (and I assume the creators of Bitcoins) wanted a currency that depends NOT on the decisions of a few. You can call this "few" government, feds, Bundesbank or Oligipoly of rich ASIC  "investors". Bitcoin is more than a network, more than a way to print your own money and more than a kindergarden of tech-freaks. If the community doesn´t respect the principles, Bitcoin will go down the road of any actual currency. I don't want a "FED" consisting of a handful of miners with hashing power no one with a computer can do anything about.

I trust a network build of thousands of family men with a computer a lot more than a network of elite ASICs.

No offense - just my two cents.

+1

[Bitcoinorama]

I really don't understand the complaint.  I can't afford a Ferrari or a Lamborghini, but I don't whine about it on a public message board.  

If your concern was really about securing the network (as opposed to profit), you would just buy some ASIC Miner shares at an amount you could afford, or even some of the escrowed group buys that people on the forum have been advertising.  Then your money is going toward increased hashing.  I suspect you just want to make a ton of money though, and are bitter that you can't afford to buy an ASIC of your own.  Am I right?

Sorry to "intrude" but IMHO your missing the point. The network didn´t grow and prosper because of a few "investors" with enough money to take over a considerable amount of combined hashing power. As far as I know, one of the core principles of Bitcoin is the ability of as many participants as possible - the more the merrier. No trust issues because of the big big numbers of participants. The chance to earn new coins now and to earn from fees later. No centralized control. No centralized power over the currency.

When participating with CPU - no problem. Anyone with a computer could participate without considerable cost.
When participating with GPU - no problem. Anyone with a newer computer could participate without considerable cost.
ASICs are not only a completely new game, it´s completely new sport.

When buying shares from whoever, there is nevertheless a centralized huge hashing power beyond the control of many.
When buying ASICs now because of deep pockets of a few and profiting huge in the coming few month and "reinvesting" that money after massiv increase of difficulty bears the risk of centralizing instead of decentralizing.

A lot of people (and I assume the creators of Bitcoins) wanted a currency that depends NOT on the decisions of a few. You can call this "few" government, feds, Bundesbank or Oligipoly of rich ASIC  "investors". Bitcoin is more than a network, more than a way to print your own money and more than a kindergarden of tech-freaks. If the community doesn´t respect the principles, Bitcoin will go down the road of any actual currency. I don't want a "FED" consisting of a handful of miners with hashing power no one with a computer can do anything about.

I trust a network build of thousands of family men with a computer a lot more than a network of elite ASICs.

No offense - just my two cents.

+1

[bbxx]

Absolutely overpriced. Paying BTC2.5 for ~300 MH/s or even BTC50 for ~10 GH/s does not make sense. You can get 300 MH/s GPU equivalent for ~BTC1. Sure, the power cost is higher, but this is not the main factor at these initial prices of hardware. Also, GPUs at least have some resale value if you decide to get out. Overall, migrating to the new technology does not make sense yet, as market is far from equilibrium.

I am glad to see not everyone sees things my way, because that is exactly what makes my decision meaningful. Good luck to you all. I will wait for the right opportunity to get some ASICs.

BLades are not so overpriced
for 49.95 btc (shipping free) in 3 days u got 13GH device wchich consumes only 120W

after one month from now they will payoff 16btc

until christmass it will be payed off for sure.

they can have also great resale value after few years. they can be at museum/collectors/auctions

disclaimer
i am erupter blade 1pcs bagholder, happy having silent (noctua fans nf-f12) device matching power of 20 radeons 7970, netbook size
i wouldnt get avalon cause it is noisy and ugly

[blastbob]

The higher price for those Blades and USB, the better

(Got ASICMINER stocks..)

[pikeadz]

I really don't understand the complaint.  I can't afford a Ferrari or a Lamborghini, but I don't whine about it on a public message board.  

If your concern was really about securing the network (as opposed to profit), you would just buy some ASIC Miner shares at an amount you could afford, or even some of the escrowed group buys that people on the forum have been advertising.  Then your money is going toward increased hashing.  I suspect you just want to make a ton of money though, and are bitter that you can't afford to buy an ASIC of your own.  Am I right?

Sorry to "intrude" but IMHO your missing the point. The network didn´t grow and prosper because of a few "investors" with enough money to take over a considerable amount of combined hashing power. As far as I know, one of the core principles of Bitcoin is the ability of as many participants as possible - the more the merrier. No trust issues because of the big big numbers of participants. The chance to earn new coins now and to earn from fees later. No centralized control. No centralized power over the currency.

When participating with CPU - no problem. Anyone with a computer could participate without considerable cost.
When participating with GPU - no problem. Anyone with a newer computer could participate without considerable cost.
ASICs are not only a completely new game, it´s completely new sport.

When buying shares from whoever, there is nevertheless a centralized huge hashing power beyond the control of many.
When buying ASICs now because of deep pockets of a few and profiting huge in the coming few month and "reinvesting" that money after massiv increase of difficulty bears the risk of centralizing instead of decentralizing.

A lot of people (and I assume the creators of Bitcoins) wanted a currency that depends NOT on the decisions of a few. You can call this "few" government, feds, Bundesbank or Oligipoly of rich ASIC  "investors". Bitcoin is more than a network, more than a way to print your own money and more than a kindergarden of tech-freaks. If the community doesn´t respect the principles, Bitcoin will go down the road of any actual currency. I don't want a "FED" consisting of a handful of miners with hashing power no one with a computer can do anything about.

I trust a network build of thousands of family men with a computer a lot more than a network of elite ASICs.

No offense - just my two cents.

Nothing at all in my post suggested centralization.  ASICs are already in the hands of hundreds if not thousands of people.  How do you figure anything close to centralization is going on right now?

Also, what is the problem with waiting a few more months until the price comes down to something he can afford?

This has nothing to do with centralization and everything to do with greed.  He can't have what he wants right now, and therefore it is overpriced in his opinion.

[cryptograd]

$1,500.00 for 68 Gh/s

should've had faith in Yifu

[Bitcoinorama]

I really don't understand the complaint.  I can't afford a Ferrari or a Lamborghini, but I don't whine about it on a public message board.  

If your concern was really about securing the network (as opposed to profit), you would just buy some ASIC Miner shares at an amount you could afford, or even some of the escrowed group buys that people on the forum have been advertising.  Then your money is going toward increased hashing.  I suspect you just want to make a ton of money though, and are bitter that you can't afford to buy an ASIC of your own.  Am I right?

Sorry to "intrude" but IMHO your missing the point. The network didn´t grow and prosper because of a few "investors" with enough money to take over a considerable amount of combined hashing power. As far as I know, one of the core principles of Bitcoin is the ability of as many participants as possible - the more the merrier. No trust issues because of the big big numbers of participants. The chance to earn new coins now and to earn from fees later. No centralized control. No centralized power over the currency.

When participating with CPU - no problem. Anyone with a computer could participate without considerable cost.
When participating with GPU - no problem. Anyone with a newer computer could participate without considerable cost.
ASICs are not only a completely new game, it´s completely new sport.

When buying shares from whoever, there is nevertheless a centralized huge hashing power beyond the control of many.
When buying ASICs now because of deep pockets of a few and profiting huge in the coming few month and "reinvesting" that money after massiv increase of difficulty bears the risk of centralizing instead of decentralizing.

A lot of people (and I assume the creators of Bitcoins) wanted a currency that depends NOT on the decisions of a few. You can call this "few" government, feds, Bundesbank or Oligipoly of rich ASIC  "investors". Bitcoin is more than a network, more than a way to print your own money and more than a kindergarden of tech-freaks. If the community doesn´t respect the principles, Bitcoin will go down the road of any actual currency. I don't want a "FED" consisting of a handful of miners with hashing power no one with a computer can do anything about.

I trust a network build of thousands of family men with a computer a lot more than a network of elite ASICs.

No offense - just my two cents.

Nothing at all in my post suggested centralization.  ASICs are already in the hands of hundreds if not thousands of people.  How do you figure anything close to centralization is going on right now?

Also, what is the problem with waiting a few more months until the price comes down to something he can afford?

This has nothing to do with centralization and everything to do with greed.  He can't have what he wants right now, and therefore it is overpriced in his opinion.

I gotta disagree, it's over priced to make the few (manufacturers) a profit based on all the earnings possible until the point at which they believe real competition is likely to enter, not based on manufacturing costs and reasonable profit. This IS centralisation.

[mmitech]

I really don't understand the complaint.  I can't afford a Ferrari or a Lamborghini, but I don't whine about it on a public message board.  

If your concern was really about securing the network (as opposed to profit), you would just buy some ASIC Miner shares at an amount you could afford, or even some of the escrowed group buys that people on the forum have been advertising.  Then your money is going toward increased hashing.  I suspect you just want to make a ton of money though, and are bitter that you can't afford to buy an ASIC of your own.  Am I right?

Sorry to "intrude" but IMHO your missing the point. The network didn´t grow and prosper because of a few "investors" with enough money to take over a considerable amount of combined hashing power. As far as I know, one of the core principles of Bitcoin is the ability of as many participants as possible - the more the merrier. No trust issues because of the big big numbers of participants. The chance to earn new coins now and to earn from fees later. No centralized control. No centralized power over the currency.

When participating with CPU - no problem. Anyone with a computer could participate without considerable cost.
When participating with GPU - no problem. Anyone with a newer computer could participate without considerable cost.
ASICs are not only a completely new game, it´s completely new sport.

When buying shares from whoever, there is nevertheless a centralized huge hashing power beyond the control of many.
When buying ASICs now because of deep pockets of a few and profiting huge in the coming few month and "reinvesting" that money after massiv increase of difficulty bears the risk of centralizing instead of decentralizing.

A lot of people (and I assume the creators of Bitcoins) wanted a currency that depends NOT on the decisions of a few. You can call this "few" government, feds, Bundesbank or Oligipoly of rich ASIC  "investors". Bitcoin is more than a network, more than a way to print your own money and more than a kindergarden of tech-freaks. If the community doesn´t respect the principles, Bitcoin will go down the road of any actual currency. I don't want a "FED" consisting of a handful of miners with hashing power no one with a computer can do anything about.

I trust a network build of thousands of family men with a computer a lot more than a network of elite ASICs.

No offense - just my two cents.

Nothing at all in my post suggested centralization.  

Also, what is the problem with waiting a few more months until the price comes down to something he can afford?

This has nothing to do with centralization and everything to do with greed.  He can't have what he wants right now, and therefore it is overpriced in his opinion.

Really ! you still insist that they are worth that money ? allot of people here would agree on my point, only some owners of an ASIC are defending their position !!! It is not only about me not able to afford one, you are really ignoring allot of facts here.

[mmitech]

$1,500.00 for 68 Gh/s

should've had faith in Yifu

should be an early adopter, I didnt even know what Bitcoin was when AVALON was taking orders. 

[k9quaint]

Nothing at all in my post suggested centralization.  ASICs are already in the hands of hundreds if not thousands of people.  How do you figure anything close to centralization is going on right now?

Together, ASICMiner and BTCGuild could attempt a 51% attack. Presuming of course that there is some hash power on BTCGuild that is discrete from ASICMiner.
The ASICMiner deployment alone controls over 20% of the network.

[mmitech]

I gotta disagree, it's over priced to make the few (manufacturers) a profit based on all the earnings possible until the point at which they believe real competition is likely to enter, not based on manufacturing costs and reasonable profit. This is centralisation.

+1

this is my hole point thank you for expressing it

[pikeadz]

Really ! you still insist that they are worth that money ? allot of people here would agree on my point, only some owners of an ASIC are defending their position !!! It is not only about me not able to afford one, you are really ignoring allot of facts here.

You are rehashing the same stuff now.  As I said, a widget is worth what the market will pay.  Right now, people are happy to pay 49.99 for a blade that will be profitable in 6 months or less.  It's hard to argue something is not worth what something is selling for like hotcakes, but you are attempting to do so.  Good luck.  I disagree.

[solitude]

Sorry if I'm missing something, but http://www.asicminer.co/ doesn't seem to have anything for sale.  Is there another website?  Are they out of stock?

[mmitech]

Really ! you still insist that they are worth that money ? allot of people here would agree on my point, only some owners of an ASIC are defending their position !!! It is not only about me not able to afford one, you are really ignoring allot of facts here.

You are rehashing the same stuff now.  As I said, a widget is worth what the market will pay.  Right now, people are happy to pay 49.99 for a blade that will be profitable in 6 months or less.  It's hard to argue something is not worth what something is selling for like hotcakes, but you are attempting to do so.  Good luck.  I disagree.

and I do respect your point of view, but this doesn't make it right.

[pikeadz]

Nothing at all in my post suggested centralization.  ASICs are already in the hands of hundreds if not thousands of people.  How do you figure anything close to centralization is going on right now?

Together, ASICMiner and BTCGuild could attempt a 51% attack. Presuming of course that there is some hash power on BTCGuild that is discrete from ASICMiner.
The ASICMiner deployment alone controls over 20% of the network.

His issue is with the price of ASICs, not with the percentage of the hash rate amongst the pools as I understood it.  People are free to mine where they like.  If you want 1000 pools contributing to decentralization, good luck with that.  I'd rather mine in a pool that has a reasonable chance at finding a block.

[pikeadz]

Sorry if I'm missing something, but http://www.asicminer.co/ doesn't seem to have anything for sale.  Is there another website?  Are they out of stock?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=204030.0

[Bitcoinorama]

The issue, say with ASICminer as an example is that they are now so powerful, they have to limit their deployment until some competition catches up. That's not catches up with ASICminer, they just need to increase the cumulative hashrate so much so ASICminer can then deploy more ASICs for themselves.

Because there is zero real competition for them currently, they have decided to sell their old stock, which is exactly what their blades are, old used parts if their mining process.

They sell at inflated prices to what manufacturing costs were under the guise of allowing the free market to dictate value. They then also sell worthless USB novelty trinkets based on their old ASIC design in the meantime preparing for their gen 2 chips.

The free market has decided the value of these blades are equal to the blade not making any real profit until a point when there is likely to be competition. Instead of just buying coins, those put purchasing their blades ensure the funds are continuously paid to the ASICminer monopoly. At the same time their funds are tied up free of alternative investment as and when it appears. Although that's largely down to impatience on their part.

Avalon have zero non recurring engineering costs, but are throwing out thousands of heavily marked up chips to people as they have no competition there under the guise of decentralisation. The fact is their chip buying wallet has enough funds for 760,000 of their overpriced chips. There has been a handful of griup buys on this forum. Where is the rest going to?

What are the chances ASICminer are selling off old stock to kit themselves out with their new gen2 chips those people paying OTT prices for their current blades are paying for to deploy before they think their blades will become profitable for them.

There is no fairness in this. This isn't about not being affluent enough. It's a shady business model that doesn't benefit Bitcoin.

We need some new and serious contenders and we need them now.

Avalon and ASICminer and even BFL have good point about them, but Avalon and ASICminers pricing structure is not one of them...

[pikeadz]

The issue, say with ASICminer as an example is that they are now so powerful, they have to limit their deployment until some competition catches up. That's not catches up with ASICminer, they just need to increase the cumulative hashrate so much so ASICminer can then deploy more ASICs for themselves.

Because there is zero real competition for them currently, they have decided to sell their old stock, which is exactly what their blades are, old used parts if their mining process.

I don't think you have bought a blade, or researched this well enough.  Are you seriously implying that the blades are used?  If so, now you are just spreading lies.

[Bitcoinorama]

The issue, say with ASICminer as an example is that they are now so powerful, they have to limit their deployment until some competition catches up. That's not catches up with ASICminer, they just need to increase the cumulative hashrate so much so ASICminer can then deploy more ASICs for themselves.

Because there is zero real competition for them currently, they have decided to sell their old stock, which is exactly what their blades are, old used parts if their mining process.

I don't think you have bought a blade, or researched this well enough.  Are you seriously implying that the blades are used?  If so, now you are just spreading lies.

Apologies, but I was under the impression they were indeed used.

[nosurrender]

Nothing at all in my post suggested centralization.  ASICs are already in the hands of hundreds if not thousands of people.  How do you figure anything close to centralization is going on right now?

Also, what is the problem with waiting a few more months until the price comes down to something he can afford?

This has nothing to do with centralization and everything to do with greed.  He can't have what he wants right now, and therefore it is overpriced in his opinion.

I did´t assume you suggest centralization. But I have strong concern that this is the road we´re all on if we don´t pay close attantion to what is going on right now. As far as I know (and please correct me if I´m wrong) Avalon was the first to ship a batch of 300 ASICs, is processing a 2nd batch right now. ASICminer kept the most hashing power in it´s own hands (not shares, actual control over what their doing) and BFL, well, we all know about BFL.

One Avalon has about 65 G hashing power. Thats about 100 x a 7970 or 200 x a 7850 (e.g. of course).
USB Miners could easily be ignored, they are equal to a 7850 minus the cost of power.

It doesn´t matter if the first wave of Avalons will be resold for a huge profit or will be used for mining right away - the increase of difficulty will throw any of todays "mini miner" with a GPU or even a few of them under the bus - they will most likely switch to scrypt. Even when Avalon-Chips finally reach customers and more mining devices will be on the market, you have to buy a ASIC to participate in the network just to even with your power bill.

This will change the network. Not everyone with a computer who is interested in the idea can join, just the ones who care enough to actually buy hardware that can be used for nothing else than mining will be there - in the long run. That´s centralization - plain and simple.

[cryptograd]

should be an early adopter, I didnt even know what Bitcoin was when AVALON was taking orders.  

Yeah but dont worry once in a lifetime chances are what bitcoin is all about this will happen cyclically in the bitcoin community, have faith and make sure you catch the next train in time.

[pikeadz]

The issue, say with ASICminer as an example is that they are now so powerful, they have to limit their deployment until some competition catches up. That's not catches up with ASICminer, they just need to increase the cumulative hashrate so much so ASICminer can then deploy more ASICs for themselves.

Because there is zero real competition for them currently, they have decided to sell their old stock, which is exactly what their blades are, old used parts if their mining process.

I don't think you have bought a blade, or researched this well enough.  Are you seriously implying that the blades are used?  If so, now you are just spreading lies.

Apologies, but I was under the impression they were indeed used.

Nope, they are very obviously packaged brand new with mfg date printed and everything.  Sealed antistatic packaging, no dust or fingerprints.  Both of mine were this way.

[pikeadz]

Nothing at all in my post suggested centralization.  ASICs are already in the hands of hundreds if not thousands of people.  How do you figure anything close to centralization is going on right now?

Also, what is the problem with waiting a few more months until the price comes down to something he can afford?

This has nothing to do with centralization and everything to do with greed.  He can't have what he wants right now, and therefore it is overpriced in his opinion.

I did´t assume you suggest centralization. But I have strong concern that this is the road we´re all on if we don´t pay close attantion to what is going on right now. As far as I know (and please correct me if I´m wrong) Avalon was the first to ship a batch of 300 ASICs, is processing a 2nd batch right now. ASICminer kept the most hashing power in it´s own hands (not shares, actual control over what their doing) and BFL, well, we all know about BFL.

One Avalon has about 65 G hashing power. Thats about 100 x a 7970 or 200 x a 7850 (e.g. of course).
USB Miners could easily be ignored, they are equal to a 7850 minus the cost of power.

It doesn´t matter if the first wave of Avalons will be resold for a huge profit or will be used for mining right away - the increase of difficulty will throw any of todays "mini miner" with a GPU or even a few of them under the bus - they will most likely switch to scrypt. Even when Avalon-Chips finally reach customers and more mining devices will be on the market, you have to buy a ASIC to participate in the network just to even with your power bill.

This will change the network. Not everyone with a computer who is interested in the idea can join, just the ones who care enough to actually buy hardware that can be used for nothing else than mining will be there - in the long run. That´s centralization - plain and simple.

People have been predicting the end of GPU mining for years.  My 7950s are still very profitable and will stay on.  You also forget to take into account exchange rate.  As Bitcoins become more valuable, the length of time GPUs remain profitable is extended.  And I'd guess most of us believe the price will go up over time or we wouldn't be here in the first place. 

And scrypt is dead at the moment.  Litecoin hasn't been as profitable to mine as bitcoin for at least a week.  (shhh, don't tell too many litecoiners, but check dustcoin's calculator for yourself)

ASICs will inevitably come down in price.  When they do, I think all these worries will be moot.

[mmitech]

Nothing at all in my post suggested centralization.  ASICs are already in the hands of hundreds if not thousands of people.  How do you figure anything close to centralization is going on right now?

Also, what is the problem with waiting a few more months until the price comes down to something he can afford?

This has nothing to do with centralization and everything to do with greed.  He can't have what he wants right now, and therefore it is overpriced in his opinion.

I did´t assume you suggest centralization. But I have strong concern that this is the road we´re all on if we don´t pay close attantion to what is going on right now. As far as I know (and please correct me if I´m wrong) Avalon was the first to ship a batch of 300 ASICs, is processing a 2nd batch right now. ASICminer kept the most hashing power in it´s own hands (not shares, actual control over what their doing) and BFL, well, we all know about BFL.

One Avalon has about 65 G hashing power. Thats about 100 x a 7970 or 200 x a 7850 (e.g. of course).
USB Miners could easily be ignored, they are equal to a 7850 minus the cost of power.

It doesn´t matter if the first wave of Avalons will be resold for a huge profit or will be used for mining right away - the increase of difficulty will throw any of todays "mini miner" with a GPU or even a few of them under the bus - they will most likely switch to scrypt. Even when Avalon-Chips finally reach customers and more mining devices will be on the market, you have to buy a ASIC to participate in the network just to even with your power bill.

This will change the network. Not everyone with a computer who is interested in the idea can join, just the ones who care enough to actually buy hardware that can be used for nothing else than mining will be there - in the long run. That´s centralization - plain and simple.

People have been predicting the end of GPU mining for years.  My 7950s are still very profitable and will stay on.  You also forget to take into account exchange rate.  As Bitcoins become more valuable, the length of time GPUs remain profitable is extended.  And I'd guess most of us believe the price will go up over time or we wouldn't be here in the first place. 

And scrypt is dead at the moment.  Litecoin hasn't been as profitable to mine as bitcoin for at least a week.  (shhh, don't tell too many litecoiners, but check dustcoin's calculator for yourself)

ASICs will inevitably come down in price.  When they do, I think all these worries will be moot.

I am sure that you will rethink this after 2-3 weeks when your 7950's wont pay for your energy bills, actually http://allchains.info/ is showing a growth for diff.factor of 21% today,i am really curious what will this be after 3 weeks 

[KS]

You can be the first to jump the gun then. Disconnect your GPU.

Or keep on mining and see what happens. Difficulty prediction is in the weeds right now, don't give it too much importance. Check how much BTC you make, check the exchange rate. That way you'll know whether your GPU is still useful for mining. I know I'm keeping mine for a while still...

[pikeadz]

I am sure that you will rethink this after 2-3 weeks when your 7950's wont pay for your energy bills, actually http://allchains.info/ is showing a growth for diff.factor of 21% today,i am really curious what will this be after 3 weeks  

As I said, people have been predicting this for years.  2-3 weeks you can go ahead and send me a PM and I'll let you know if I've powered them down.  I have nothing to hide.  

But let's do some quick math.  I have a reliable, constant 3500MH/s with my six 7950s.  If difficulty is 14,000,000, they will generate ~$490 a month.  I currently pay $140/month in electricity to run them.  So the difficulty will have to be 49,000,000 before they become unprofitable at the current exchange rate.  Source:  http://www.alloscomp.com/bitcoin/calculator

If you are saying the difficulty is going to be 49,000,000 in 2 to 3 weeks, I think you should research difficulty jumps.  It cannot rise more than a factor of 4 in a single jump.  Also, you are not taking the exchange rate into account.  If bitcoins rise in value, my GPUs will remain profitable even longer.  If it falls a little, well, I will probably continue to mine because I believe it will rise overall in the long term.

[mmitech]

I am sure that you will rethink this after 2-3 weeks when your 7950's wont pay for your energy bills, actually http://allchains.info/ is showing a growth for diff.factor of 21% today,i am really curious what will this be after 3 weeks  

As I said, people have been predicting this for years.  2-3 weeks you can go ahead and send me a PM and I'll let you know if I've powered them down.  I have nothing to hide.  

But let's do some quick math.  I have a reliable, constant 3500MH/s with my six 7950s.  If difficulty is 14,000,000, they will generate ~$490 a month.  I currently pay $140/month in electricity to run them.  So the difficulty will have to be 49,000,000 before they become unprofitable.  Source:  http://www.alloscomp.com/bitcoin/calculator

If you are saying the difficulty is going to be 49,000,000 in 2 to 3 weeks, I think you should research difficulty jumps.  It cannot rise more than a factor of 4 in a single jump.  Also, you are not taking the exchange rate into account.  If bitcoins rise in value, my GPUs will remain profitable even longer.  If it falls a little, well, I will probably continue to mine because I believe it will rise overall in the long term.

but in the other hand you could get an ASIC if they were at a reasonable price and join the club of ASIC miners, this is exactly what we are trying to say here, I work at Goodyear tires as an IT engineer,  Goodyear owns Dunlop, Debica, Fulda and Sava, and we full-fill all our customer needs for price/quality and we still make a decent profit , this is how ASIC chips should be. companys could still make a huge profit with much lower prices so more miners could get the chance to join *decentralization*    

[dogie]

What are you shitting. An erupter blade is 13 GH for 50btc delivered globally within 3 days. ROI is 120-180 days depending on when you bought.

That is a good return, but compare the price to the Avalon units and 50BTC for 12GH/s is fairly pricey. On the other hand, the erupter blades are actually available.
The erupter blades will make money, but not everyone has $8K to drop on a single piece of hashing equipment.

The difference is Avalon was an unknown seller, had no significant proof of concept, and there was a cheaper alternative in BFL that appeared way more reputable. Still, delivery "in the future". ASICMiner is proven, has 30,000 of the same product mining themselves, is publicly traded and has items in hand.

Risk = reward, its no secret

$1,500.00 for 68 Gh/s

should've had faith in Yifu

If I'd head of bitcoins I would have put $8-10k in when they were around $6. Very surprised I didn't hear of it as at the time I was heavily in the hardware business.

Nothing at all in my post suggested centralization.  ASICs are already in the hands of hundreds if not thousands of people.  How do you figure anything close to centralization is going on right now?

Together, ASICMiner and BTCGuild could attempt a 51% attack. Presuming of course that there is some hash power on BTCGuild that is discrete from ASICMiner.
The ASICMiner deployment alone controls over 20% of the network.

....no, just no. That's like saying "OMG IF EVERYONE IN BITCOIN JOINED TOGETHER THEY COULD 51%". Use common sense please.

[wrenchmonkey]

I agree that they're overpriced, I just disagree with you in how you arrived at that conclusion.

ASIC Hardware (with the exception of BFL which doesn't count, because it's not something you can actually get your hands on right now), is over-priced, but only in the sense that it's unlikely to break even, or turn a decent profit at this point.

One's ability or inability to purchase a product has NOTHING to do with whether or not it's overpriced though. I can't afford to buy a 200,000 sq ft mansion, even if it's "under-priced" by market standards.

The reason these miners cost what they do is because the MARKET is willing to pay it. There are a lot of foolish people who aren't considering the return, and are focusing only on what they can afford (like yourself). What you can afford to pay, and what something's "worth" are not interchangeable terms. As long as people continue to overpay for ASIC hardware, it will continue to be overpriced, regardless of what your own individual finances look like.

[pikeadz]

but in the other hand you could get an ASIC if they were at a reasonable price and join the club of ASIC miners, this is exactly what we are trying to say here, I work at Goodyear tires as an IT engineer,  Goodyear owns Dunlop, Debica, Fulda and Sava, and we full-fill all our customer needs for price/quality and we still make a decent profit , this is how ASIC chips should be. companys could still make a huge profit with much lower prices so more miners could get the chance to join *decentralization*    

And as I said before, you can get an ASIC.  You can either wait a few more months when the price plummets, or you can join a group buy, buy AM shares, etc.   Just because you can't have one right this second doesn't mean decentralization is being threatened or that they are so unafforable that a 51% attack is likely.  Quite the opposite.

I began buying bitcoins when they were $10 a coin.  This is affordable to me because I had the foresight and took the risk that you did not.  Don't penalize me because you didn't.  That's almost as bad as the people who say Bitcoin will never succeed because it unfairly awards early adopters.  Do you believe it is a ponzi scheme too?

[bcpokey]

Then stop complaining. I had £12 in my bank account. Was bored, started my own £1M company at 13. Do something about it other than complain. In either case, why do we have to hear the QQ?

Paying for college: 15UhE4x7d1hD2o2YKCcdddzuhymsTKdeuz

Ah internet...

In other news, ASICs are retardedly priced right now, but I blame the bitcoin community more than the manufacturers. ASICMiner is a perfect example, they publicly announced that pricing would be based on the auction results, and more or less true to their word, they were. The first batch auctioned for ~75BTC (more than a blade will probably ever make in its lifetime), Second batch went for 66 or so (see above). Third batch was priced-in at 50BTC and sold out the same day I believe? With a backlog of 140orders on top of their offering.

The third batch may or may not break-even or produce a tiny amount of profit, yet demand for them is so high it is as though they were batch 1 avalons (the price people are paying for a blade is roughly equivalent to what people are paying for batch 2 in-hand avalons, so don't try to say "oh but they ship now!").

So again, the community is at fault, too much capital, not enough sense. C'est la vie.

[mmitech]

I agree that they're overpriced, I just disagree with you in how you arrived at that conclusion.

ASIC Hardware (with the exception of BFL which doesn't count, because it's not something you can actually get your hands on right now), is over-priced, but only in the sense that it's unlikely to break even, or turn a decent profit at this point.

One's ability or inability to purchase a product has NOTHING to do with whether or not it's overpriced though. I can't afford to buy a 200,000 sq ft mansion, even if it's "under-priced" by market standards.

The reason these miners cost what they do is because the MARKET is willing to pay it. There are a lot of foolish people who aren't considering the return, and are focusing only on what they can afford (like yourself). What you can afford to pay, and what something's "worth" are not interchangeable terms. As long as people continue to overpay for ASIC hardware, it will continue to be overpriced, regardless of what your own individual finances look like.

If I am able to buy GPU's I should be able to buy an ASIC that suites my budget for a reasonable price. maybe a 5GH/s or a 10GH/s to replace my rig, do not forget an ASIC is good only for mining but a GPU have a resell value.

I am not begging or crying about my situation and I do not need anyone to feel sorry about people in my position, we all should have an equal chance here, this is the spirit of Bitcoin, by paying a load of money for something that is not worth that kind of money you are just hurting people like me. eventually these companys care the most  about money, but go ahead attack me instead of asking how much these things really cost and how much these guys are making of you, instead sitting thinking about it.

[pikeadz]

Then stop complaining. I had £12 in my bank account. Was bored, started my own £1M company at 13. Do something about it other than complain. In either case, why do we have to hear the QQ?

Paying for college: 15UhE4x7d1hD2o2YKCcdddzuhymsTKdeuz

Ah internet...

In other news, ASICs are retardedly priced right now, but I blame the bitcoin community more than the manufacturers. ASICMiner is a perfect example, they publicly announced that pricing would be based on the auction results, and more or less true to their word, they were. The first batch auctioned for ~75BTC (more than a blade will probably ever make in its lifetime), Second batch went for 66 or so (see above). Third batch was priced-in at 50BTC and sold out the same day I believe? With a backlog of 140orders on top of their offering.

The third batch may or may not break-even or produce a tiny amount of profit, yet demand for them is so high it is as though they were batch 1 avalons (the price people are paying for a blade is roughly equivalent to what people are paying for batch 2 in-hand avalons, so don't try to say "oh but they ship now!").

So again, the community is at fault, too much capital, not enough sense. C'est la vie.

There is method to some of our madness.  I am using the blades as a hedge against the 5 batch 3 Avalons I have on order.  If my Avalons arrive super late, I am betting that the difficulty won't be so high and my blades will make an ROI sooner.  If the Avalons arrive earlier, maybe my blades won't be as profitable but 360,000 MH/s  of hashing power should heal that wound pretty quick.  

Moral of the story:  don't assume you know what everyone's motives are.

[dogie]

Then stop complaining. I had £12 in my bank account. Was bored, started my own £1M company at 13. Do something about it other than complain. In either case, why do we have to hear the QQ?

Paying for college: 15UhE4x7d1hD2o2YKCcdddzuhymsTKdeuz

Ah internet...

4 years of engineering and a 2 year MBA at Harvard/MIT = big bucks. Your attempt at logic was a good try though.

In other news, ASICs are retardedly priced right now, but I blame the bitcoin community more than the manufacturers. ASICMiner is a perfect example, they publicly announced that pricing would be based on the auction results, and more or less true to their word, they were. The first batch auctioned for ~75BTC (more than a blade will probably ever make in its lifetime), Second batch went for 66 or so (see above). Third batch was priced-in at 50BTC and sold out the same day I believe? With a backlog of 140orders on top of their offering.

The third batch may or may not break-even or produce a tiny amount of profit, yet demand for them is so high it is as though they were batch 1 avalons (the price people are paying for a blade is roughly equivalent to what people are paying for batch 2 in-hand avalons, so don't try to say "oh but they ship now!").

So again, the community is at fault, too much capital, not enough sense. C'est la vie.

Have to say it for the 3000th time. Even at 150m difficulty in a year, blades still ROI in 16-20 weeks depending on batch. Remember when it was QQ Avalon B2s overpriced, then QQQQ Avalon B3s rip off?

[bcpokey]

Then stop complaining. I had £12 in my bank account. Was bored, started my own £1M company at 13. Do something about it other than complain. In either case, why do we have to hear the QQ?

Paying for college: 15UhE4x7d1hD2o2YKCcdddzuhymsTKdeuz

Ah internet...

In other news, ASICs are retardedly priced right now, but I blame the bitcoin community more than the manufacturers. ASICMiner is a perfect example, they publicly announced that pricing would be based on the auction results, and more or less true to their word, they were. The first batch auctioned for ~75BTC (more than a blade will probably ever make in its lifetime), Second batch went for 66 or so (see above). Third batch was priced-in at 50BTC and sold out the same day I believe? With a backlog of 140orders on top of their offering.

The third batch may or may not break-even or produce a tiny amount of profit, yet demand for them is so high it is as though they were batch 1 avalons (the price people are paying for a blade is roughly equivalent to what people are paying for batch 2 in-hand avalons, so don't try to say "oh but they ship now!").

So again, the community is at fault, too much capital, not enough sense. C'est la vie.

There is method to some of our madness.  I am using the blades as a hedge against the 5 batch 3 Avalons I have on order.  If my Avalons arrive super late, I am betting that the difficulty won't be so high and my blades will make an ROI sooner.  If the Avalons arrive earlier, maybe my blades won't be as profitable but 360,000 MH/s  of hashing power should heal that wound pretty quick.  

Moral of the story:  don't assume you know what everyone's motives are.

I understand all your rationalizations, and some of them might even make a little sense in certain contexts, I don't disagree with that. They are still irrationally narrow-focused, 'motive' aside. I don't even want to get into a debate about what kind of hedge a 4-month break-even 50BTC device is against an 80BTC (difficulty doubling) device, that's for you and your god to work out.

The market has borne a great deal of capital-glut, and it may yield a great number of happy individuals, or we may hear a bunch of crying and moaning about destroyed lives. No one knows, but it is still a capital-glut nonetheless. I don't begrudge you fellows, because it doesn't affect me, except in keeping me out of the market, but I wasn't banking my life on that anyway. I enjoy mining as a tech-geek, but I don't feel the need to expect it to replace my day-job.

The customers have spoken, and created device costs that are close to unreasonable, excepting under self-convincing circumstances, and that's just how it is. Needn't really be a big debate either way about it.

[bcpokey]

Then stop complaining. I had £12 in my bank account. Was bored, started my own £1M company at 13. Do something about it other than complain. In either case, why do we have to hear the QQ?

Paying for college: 15UhE4x7d1hD2o2YKCcdddzuhymsTKdeuz

Ah internet...

4 years of engineering and a 2 year MBA at Harvard/MIT = big bucks. Your attempt at logic was a good try though.

In other news, ASICs are retardedly priced right now, but I blame the bitcoin community more than the manufacturers. ASICMiner is a perfect example, they publicly announced that pricing would be based on the auction results, and more or less true to their word, they were. The first batch auctioned for ~75BTC (more than a blade will probably ever make in its lifetime), Second batch went for 66 or so (see above). Third batch was priced-in at 50BTC and sold out the same day I believe? With a backlog of 140orders on top of their offering.

The third batch may or may not break-even or produce a tiny amount of profit, yet demand for them is so high it is as though they were batch 1 avalons (the price people are paying for a blade is roughly equivalent to what people are paying for batch 2 in-hand avalons, so don't try to say "oh but they ship now!").

So again, the community is at fault, too much capital, not enough sense. C'est la vie.

Have to say it for the 3000th time. Even at 150m difficulty in a year, blades still ROI in 16-20 weeks depending on batch. Remember when it was QQ Avalon B2s overpriced, then QQQQ Avalon B3s rip off?

Being bemused by your self-aggrandizing and likely fabricated statements is not an "attempt at logic". I do hope "Harvard/MIT" are a little more selective in their candidates (or perhaps they are revamping their courses in logic, be it electrical, mathematical, or philosophical), but perhaps not.

150M in a year at what rate, linear? I'm sure a "Harvard MBA" like yourself can think outside linear growth.

[dogie]

Then stop complaining. I had £12 in my bank account. Was bored, started my own £1M company at 13. Do something about it other than complain. In either case, why do we have to hear the QQ?

Paying for college: 15UhE4x7d1hD2o2YKCcdddzuhymsTKdeuz

Ah internet...

4 years of engineering and a 2 year MBA at Harvard/MIT = big bucks. Your attempt at logic was a good try though.

In other news, ASICs are retardedly priced right now, but I blame the bitcoin community more than the manufacturers. ASICMiner is a perfect example, they publicly announced that pricing would be based on the auction results, and more or less true to their word, they were. The first batch auctioned for ~75BTC (more than a blade will probably ever make in its lifetime), Second batch went for 66 or so (see above). Third batch was priced-in at 50BTC and sold out the same day I believe? With a backlog of 140orders on top of their offering.

The third batch may or may not break-even or produce a tiny amount of profit, yet demand for them is so high it is as though they were batch 1 avalons (the price people are paying for a blade is roughly equivalent to what people are paying for batch 2 in-hand avalons, so don't try to say "oh but they ship now!").

So again, the community is at fault, too much capital, not enough sense. C'est la vie.

Have to say it for the 3000th time. Even at 150m difficulty in a year, blades still ROI in 16-20 weeks depending on batch. Remember when it was QQ Avalon B2s overpriced, then QQQQ Avalon B3s rip off?

Being bemused by your self-aggrandizing and likely fabricated statements is not an "attempt at logic". I do hope "Harvard/MIT" are a little more selective in their candidates (or perhaps they are revamping their courses in logic, be it electrical, mathematical, or philosophical), but perhaps not.

150M in a year at what rate, linear? I'm sure a "Harvard MBA" like yourself can think outside linear growth.

I didn't say linear did I. But in either case, we really don't know what will happen after Sept-Oct when the Avalon DIYs come online. Any new releases, if any, could be on any process, any price, by anyone. Multinationals might have their own ASICs developed and deployed in private by then. Bitcoin price could be $30,000 and makes it profitable to mine on phones.

Who knows, its all an estimation.

[pikeadz]

I understand all your rationalizations[....] They are still irrationally narrow-focused, 'motive' aside. I don't even want to get into a debate about what kind of hedge a 4-month break-even 50BTC device is against an 80BTC (difficulty doubling) device, that's for you and your god to work out.

You lost me here.  I won't even attempt to reply unless you want to rephrase all of this, for fear of misinterpreting your comments.  What do I have to work out with my god, and what is a difficulty doubling device?  I am not trying to be rude.  I just don't understand your comments.

[dodegkr]

would I be wrong in saying, even with the money they are not for sale other than in silly usb sticks?

[tinus42]

When participating with CPU - no problem. Anyone with a computer could participate without considerable cost.

Exactly. I mine with my old laptop which I bought in the year 0 AS (Anno Satoshi = 2009).

I only get 40 KH/s out of it and have no hope of even getting a fraction of a Bitcoin but every bit counts.

Hopefully one day I will be able to get some kickass hardware one day but that can wait.

I have some Asicminer shares but I'm not expecting to get rich from them (though I wouldn't mind  ). It helps to secure the network, AM can sell shares their currently hold to develop better gear.

My interest is in getting rid of the awfully corrupt banking system and giving the people sound money so they don't continously lose purchasing power holding hard earned cash as happens now (when having a regular savings account is a losing proposition due to inflation).

[k9quaint]

Have to say it for the 3000th time. Even at 150m difficulty in a year, blades still ROI in 16-20 weeks depending on batch. Remember when it was QQ Avalon B2s overpriced, then QQQQ Avalon B3s rip off?

Let us presume that the Eruptor Blade can do 12GH. Some may be able to produce slightly more but lets be conservative for the moment.
They are priced in BTC, which makes it easy to identify what return is being generated by the device without involving rises or falls in exchange rate.
According to http://dustcoin.com/mining
At 12.1M difficulty, a 12GH blade generates roughly .5 BTC per day. At that rate it would take 100 days to generate 50 BTC at zero growth rate in difficulty.
At 150M difficulty, a 12GH blade would generate rougly 0.04 BTC per day.

Assuming a constant rate of growth between 12.1M and 150M over the period of 1 year, the difficulty will adjust by roughly 2.5M every 7 days (round numbers make things easy). At 20 weeks the blade will have generated 27.06 BTC, the dificulty will be about 57million and the blade will be generating .74 BTC per week.

At that difficulty growth rate, an Eruptor Blade will not pay for itself in 1 year if purchased for 50BTC.
IMO, 150M in 365 days is a very aggressive estimate for the difficulty growth rate.

Please let me know if I got the math wrong, I didn't use a spreadsheet, I just did back of the envelope.

[btceic]

Bottom line here is the guys with deep pockets as usual priced the little guys right out of the equation, welcome to the free market.

[mmitech]

Have to say it for the 3000th time. Even at 150m difficulty in a year, blades still ROI in 16-20 weeks depending on batch. Remember when it was QQ Avalon B2s overpriced, then QQQQ Avalon B3s rip off?

Let us presume that the Eruptor Blade can do 12GH. Some may be able to produce slightly more but lets be conservative for the moment.
They are priced in BTC, which makes it easy to identify what return is being generated by the device without involving rises or falls in exchange rate.
According to http://dustcoin.com/mining
At 12.1M difficulty, a 12GH blade generates roughly .5 BTC per day. At that rate it would take 100 days to generate 50 BTC at zero growth rate in difficulty.
At 150M difficulty, a 12GH blade would generate rougly 0.04 BTC per day.

Assuming a constant rate of growth between 12.1M and 150M over the period of 1 year, the difficulty will adjust by roughly 2.5M every 7 days (round numbers make things easy). At 20 weeks the blade will have generated 27.06 BTC, the dificulty will be about 57million and the blade will be generating .74 BTC per week.

At that difficulty growth rate, an Eruptor Blade will not pay for itself in 1 year if purchased for 50BTC.
IMO, 150M in 365 days is a very aggressive estimate for the difficulty growth rate.

Please let me know if I got the math wrong, I didn't use a spreadsheet, I just did back of the envelope.

+1

Bottom line here is the guys with deep pockets as usual priced the little guys right out of the equation, welcome to the free market.

+1

[nosurrender]

When participating with CPU - no problem. Anyone with a computer could participate without considerable cost.

Exactly. I mine with my old laptop which I bought in the year 0 AS (Anno Satoshi = 2009).

I only get 40 KH/s out of it and have no hope of even getting a fraction of a Bitcoin but every bit counts.

Hopefully one day I will be able to get some kickass hardware one day but that can wait.

I have some Asicminer shares but I'm not expecting to get rich from them (though I wouldn't mind  ). It helps to secure the network, AM can sell shares their currently hold to develop better gear.

My interest is in getting rid of the awfully corrupt banking system and giving the people sound money so they don't continously lose purchasing power holding hard earned cash as happens now (when having a regular savings account is a losing proposition due to inflation).

Thank you. I sincerely hope there will be a lot around with your attitude, even if the whole Bitcoin world goes crazy about all the "easy money" supposedly laying around waiting to be picked up.  

[jspielberg]

We are all dancing around the issue... the question isn't "Is Asic Mining equipment overpriced?"

The question is "Are Asics a good value?"

If you want an Asic miner today,  get in on 1 of the many AM USB Block Eruptors on this forum and you should have your trinket in a matter of days.  So... there is an ASIC miner in your price range.   It just isn't a good value... especially because we all see and know the difficulty is going up... WAY up.

Avalon by themselves have produced/are producing 100Th/s of miners among Batches 1 2 and 3 of miners. 

They have also sold 64,000 BTC ($8.3M USD) ~ 230+Th/s of chips... and you can believe that they will for the most part get turned into active miners before the middle of October (hey... a B3 miner orderer can dream  ).
http://blockexplorer.com/address/1FGAftzSTztFSB8LMwsrdCKTyqGY6zr3sU

So... there is difficulty coming from Avalon to the tune of 300Th/s (lets assume that ~30Ths of B1 and B2 has already been deployed soo... 10%). 

There is also AM who will be able to deploy more of their own hashpower now that the network has matured enough to support it.  I think I read they have 250Th/s planned as well.

Remember we are at about 120Th/s right now.
http://blockchain.info/stats

That puts 4 to 5 times the current hashing power onto the network in the next couple of months of the guys who have stated their intentions.  There is also AsicGarden (100Th/s ?), BitFury (100Th/s?), Blofeld/SPECTRE Mining (500Th/s --- trying for 51% attack of course)... etc.

Anyway... this brings us back to the question... are Asics a good value?
And I think we can answer... with current prices and the long term projections... they are a horrible value if you receive them when the difficulty is going to be 5x to 6x higher.

Someone mentioned that mining hardware is a suicidal business... every sale you make, makes your future sales less appealing.  What we are seeing is that statement made real.  Kudos to Avalon for finding a way of making a go of it. 

Personally I think their chip sales was a checkmate move against the rest of the mining hardware makers.  It solved a couple of problems:
1) Allowed for decentralization of mining at a massive scale achieving one of their primary goals
2) Crowd sourced/distributed the production capacity of mining to the "private sector"... reinforcing goal 1
3) Put all other hardware manufacturers on notice that their is now a ticking time bomb of difficulty that they need ship before... frankly, Avalon's chip sales may be the best thing that ever happened to BFL customers.  BFL now has to ship big quantities in the next 10 weeks to stay relevant/solvent.
4) Provided a funding source for their next generation of asic

Avalon is positioning themselves to be the Intel or Apple of asic mining technology... not a bad place to be positioned.

Soo... will your asic pay itself back before DIFFIPOCALYPSE. 
If it does... then yay!  you have have an asic that is a good value.  If not... then it is overpriced... no matter how cheap it is.

Right now I would argue that the probability of AM's products are unlikely to return over the course of a year, with the very generous assumption that the difficulty will average 3.5x the current difficulty (we know the difficulty is going to be 6+x but I am being generous). If you think the avg is going to be less steep... I point to exhibit A:
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/
That graph is just the excitement over BTC... it doesn't come close to showing what Asics are going to bring --- DIFFIPOCALYPSE 

I calculate that with only and avg 3.5x increase in difficulty over the course of the next 365 days... the 10GHs AM blades will return 43BTC.  Not a good value.  USB miners are about the same... 1.75 BTC over the course of a year at avg difficulty of only 3.5x.  Avalon most expensive miners (B3) are able to breakeven upto 12x over the course of a year... but that ignores power costs.

One final thought:
Bitcoin mining was never meant to be an anti-capitalist, meritocratic, socialist utopia.  Sorry to burst your illusions but bitcoin mining is darwin in high relief  It is a zero sum game, meaning if you eat... someone else starves -- sad but true.  And this isn't new.  When CPU mining was all there was... folks with resources "outcompeted" those without... i.e. those with Xeon and CoreI7 processors outcompeted those with crappy cheapo celerons.  When GPUs came out... those with the ability to power up 6 5790s with a giant powersupply and water cool them... out competed those with single nVidia whatevers (and CoreI7s).  Asics are doing the same, but we shouldn't shed a tear.  This is progress! And as always... those who are able to "capitalize" on it... will outcompete those who can't.  It isn't sad... it is just how system with people work.

Anyway... this has gotten way too long...

TLDR; --- Currently available Asics are most likley a good value if receive it before Avalon chips ship (DIFFIPOCALYPSE).  Asic Miner Asics probably aren't a good value unless you already are in possession of it ... but possibly not even then.

[dogie]

Have to say it for the 3000th time. Even at 150m difficulty in a year, blades still ROI in 16-20 weeks depending on batch. Remember when it was QQ Avalon B2s overpriced, then QQQQ Avalon B3s rip off?

Let us presume that the Eruptor Blade can do 12GH. Some may be able to produce slightly more but lets be conservative for the moment.
They are priced in BTC, which makes it easy to identify what return is being generated by the device without involving rises or falls in exchange rate.
According to http://dustcoin.com/mining
At 12.1M difficulty, a 12GH blade generates roughly .5 BTC per day. At that rate it would take 100 days to generate 50 BTC at zero growth rate in difficulty.
At 150M difficulty, a 12GH blade would generate rougly 0.04 BTC per day.

Assuming a constant rate of growth between 12.1M and 150M over the period of 1 year, the difficulty will adjust by roughly 2.5M every 7 days (round numbers make things easy). At 20 weeks the blade will have generated 27.06 BTC, the dificulty will be about 57million and the blade will be generating .74 BTC per week.

At that difficulty growth rate, an Eruptor Blade will not pay for itself in 1 year if purchased for 50BTC.
IMO, 150M in 365 days is a very aggressive estimate for the difficulty growth rate.

Please let me know if I got the math wrong, I didn't use a spreadsheet, I just did back of the envelope.

Purchased today, a blade would generate 64 in 52 weeks. And for every week earlier you purchased, its an additional 3 coins. Ie mine purchased 3-4 weeks ago = ~73 with frozen exchange rates. ROI for purchased today is about 27 weeks.

EDIT: Its also worth noting that the main ROI is actually from expected currency shifts. 52 weeks is a long, long time in btc terms.

[k9quaint]

Have to say it for the 3000th time. Even at 150m difficulty in a year, blades still ROI in 16-20 weeks depending on batch. Remember when it was QQ Avalon B2s overpriced, then QQQQ Avalon B3s rip off?

Let us presume that the Eruptor Blade can do 12GH. Some may be able to produce slightly more but lets be conservative for the moment.
They are priced in BTC, which makes it easy to identify what return is being generated by the device without involving rises or falls in exchange rate.
According to http://dustcoin.com/mining
At 12.1M difficulty, a 12GH blade generates roughly .5 BTC per day. At that rate it would take 100 days to generate 50 BTC at zero growth rate in difficulty.
At 150M difficulty, a 12GH blade would generate rougly 0.04 BTC per day.

Assuming a constant rate of growth between 12.1M and 150M over the period of 1 year, the difficulty will adjust by roughly 2.5M every 7 days (round numbers make things easy). At 20 weeks the blade will have generated 27.06 BTC, the dificulty will be about 57million and the blade will be generating .74 BTC per week.

At that difficulty growth rate, an Eruptor Blade will not pay for itself in 1 year if purchased for 50BTC.
IMO, 150M in 365 days is a very aggressive estimate for the difficulty growth rate.

Please let me know if I got the math wrong, I didn't use a spreadsheet, I just did back of the envelope.

Purchased today, a blade would generate 64 in 52 weeks. And for every week earlier you purchased, its an additional 3 coins. Ie mine purchased 3-4 weeks ago = ~73 with frozen exchange rates. ROI for purchased today is about 27 weeks.

EDIT: Its also worth noting that the main ROI is actually from expected currency shifts. 52 weeks is a long, long time in btc terms.

At what rate of difficulty growth are you assuming that 64BTC in 52weeks?

[dogie]

Have to say it for the 3000th time. Even at 150m difficulty in a year, blades still ROI in 16-20 weeks depending on batch. Remember when it was QQ Avalon B2s overpriced, then QQQQ Avalon B3s rip off?

Let us presume that the Eruptor Blade can do 12GH. Some may be able to produce slightly more but lets be conservative for the moment.
They are priced in BTC, which makes it easy to identify what return is being generated by the device without involving rises or falls in exchange rate.
According to http://dustcoin.com/mining
At 12.1M difficulty, a 12GH blade generates roughly .5 BTC per day. At that rate it would take 100 days to generate 50 BTC at zero growth rate in difficulty.
At 150M difficulty, a 12GH blade would generate rougly 0.04 BTC per day.

Assuming a constant rate of growth between 12.1M and 150M over the period of 1 year, the difficulty will adjust by roughly 2.5M every 7 days (round numbers make things easy). At 20 weeks the blade will have generated 27.06 BTC, the dificulty will be about 57million and the blade will be generating .74 BTC per week.

At that difficulty growth rate, an Eruptor Blade will not pay for itself in 1 year if purchased for 50BTC.
IMO, 150M in 365 days is a very aggressive estimate for the difficulty growth rate.

Please let me know if I got the math wrong, I didn't use a spreadsheet, I just did back of the envelope.

Purchased today, a blade would generate 64 in 52 weeks. And for every week earlier you purchased, its an additional 3 coins. Ie mine purchased 3-4 weeks ago = ~73 with frozen exchange rates. ROI for purchased today is about 27 weeks.

EDIT: Its also worth noting that the main ROI is actually from expected currency shifts. 52 weeks is a long, long time in btc terms.

At what rate of difficulty growth are you assuming that 64BTC in 52weeks?

10% consistently on the basic model.

[crashoveride54902]

I really don't understand the complaint.  I can't afford a Ferrari or a Lamborghini, but I don't whine about it on a public message board.  

If your concern was really about securing the network (as opposed to profit), you would just buy some ASIC Miner shares at an amount you could afford, or even some of the escrowed group buys that people on the forum have been advertising.  Then your money is going toward increased hashing.  I suspect you just want to make a ton of money though, and are bitter that you can't afford to buy an ASIC of your own.  Am I right?

Sorry to "intrude" but IMHO your missing the point. The network didn´t grow and prosper because of a few "investors" with enough money to take over a considerable amount of combined hashing power. As far as I know, one of the core principles of Bitcoin is the ability of as many participants as possible - the more the merrier. No trust issues because of the big big numbers of participants. The chance to earn new coins now and to earn from fees later. No centralized control. No centralized power over the currency.

When participating with CPU - no problem. Anyone with a computer could participate without considerable cost.
When participating with GPU - no problem. Anyone with a newer computer could participate without considerable cost.
ASICs are not only a completely new game, it´s completely new sport.

When buying shares from whoever, there is nevertheless a centralized huge hashing power beyond the control of many.
When buying ASICs now because of deep pockets of a few and profiting huge in the coming few month and "reinvesting" that money after massiv increase of difficulty bears the risk of centralizing instead of decentralizing.

A lot of people (and I assume the creators of Bitcoins) wanted a currency that depends NOT on the decisions of a few. You can call this "few" government, feds, Bundesbank or Oligipoly of rich ASIC  "investors". Bitcoin is more than a network, more than a way to print your own money and more than a kindergarden of tech-freaks. If the community doesn´t respect the principles, Bitcoin will go down the road of any actual currency. I don't want a "FED" consisting of a handful of miners with hashing power no one with a computer can do anything about.

I trust a network build of thousands of family men with a computer a lot more than a network of elite ASICs.

No offense - just my two cents.

+OVER 9000!!!!

[Bitcoinorama]

Well it's all about to change apparently; https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=222983.msg2344319#msg2344319

[DoomDumas]

What are you shitting. An erupter blade is 13 GH for 50btc delivered globally within 3 days. ROI is 120-180 days depending on when you bought.

1 Avalon batch 2 cost was 55 BTC for 66+ Gh/s.

Ok, Avalon are/where not delivered as fast as AsicMiner, but I'm looking at it for the long run !

50 BTC for 13Gh/s seems very expensive, well too expensive, from my point of view.

[glendall]

The prices are somewhat relative. The market rate is what it is, people were happy to pay for them, so I don't think they were too expensive. Think it is also more fair to just measure it from solely a Bitcoin cost perspective, not fiat.

When the 2nd gen ASICs come along, it'll be a much more level playing field, such more likely as it is with GPUs. More available, cheaper...  In the 1st gen there are many more risks but the pay out is larger if it works out... judging from a price-performance comparison between GPUs and ASICs the numbers speak for themselves...much more efficient and cheaper.

Also worth mentioning is that a person currently is not only limited to buying their own larger ASIC, to benefit from this tech. They could alternatively invest in dividend paying mining operation stocks, such as asicminer and basic, to benefit from ASICs to whatever amount they want.

[DPoS]

There is a lot more than just ROI in this sport of kings

big players much rather mine coins than buy them since they can avoid the money trail

especially if they can use their current btc to get more miners

avoiding exchange fees, taxes, etc

with this in mind, even negative ROI still has its benefits

[SolarSilver]

big players much rather mine coins than buy them since they can avoid the money trail

Having an IM4 (IMA, C88) document generated by customs when importing ASIC equipment is much more of smoking gun

[seleme]

Then stop complaining. I had £12 in my bank account. Was bored, started my own £1M company at 13. Do something about it other than complain. In either case, why do we have to hear the QQ?

Paying for college: 15UhE4x7d1hD2o2YKCcdddzuhymsTKdeuz

Ah internet...

In other news, ASICs are retardedly priced right now, but I blame the bitcoin community more than the manufacturers. ASICMiner is a perfect example, they publicly announced that pricing would be based on the auction results, and more or less true to their word, they were. The first batch auctioned for ~75BTC (more than a blade will probably ever make in its lifetime), Second batch went for 66 or so (see above). Third batch was priced-in at 50BTC and sold out the same day I believe? With a backlog of 140orders on top of their offering.

The third batch may or may not break-even or produce a tiny amount of profit, yet demand for them is so high it is as though they were batch 1 avalons (the price people are paying for a blade is roughly equivalent to what people are paying for batch 2 in-hand avalons, so don't try to say "oh but they ship now!").

So again, the community is at fault, too much capital, not enough sense. C'est la vie.

People shilled the heck out of those auctions  

USB miners are probably better examples as they are also ridiculously priced but loads of them are sold too.

[DPoS]

big players much rather mine coins than buy them since they can avoid the money trail

Having an IM4 (IMA, C88) document generated by customs when importing ASIC equipment is much more of smoking gun

you are acting like miners are contraband..  not yet at least   

[abdullahadam]

This calculator is pretty good
http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/

it is using past data to estimate difficulty and plot profit.  Currently its 43% increase for last 30 days