ASICs are Over priced

[mmitech]

I gotta disagree, it's over priced to make the few (manufacturers) a profit based on all the earnings possible until the point at which they believe real competition is likely to enter, not based on manufacturing costs and reasonable profit. This is centralisation.

+1

this is my hole point thank you for expressing it

[pikeadz]

Really ! you still insist that they are worth that money ? allot of people here would agree on my point, only some owners of an ASIC are defending their position !!! It is not only about me not able to afford one, you are really ignoring allot of facts here.

You are rehashing the same stuff now.  As I said, a widget is worth what the market will pay.  Right now, people are happy to pay 49.99 for a blade that will be profitable in 6 months or less.  It's hard to argue something is not worth what something is selling for like hotcakes, but you are attempting to do so.  Good luck.  I disagree.

[solitude]

Sorry if I'm missing something, but http://www.asicminer.co/ doesn't seem to have anything for sale.  Is there another website?  Are they out of stock?

[mmitech]

Really ! you still insist that they are worth that money ? allot of people here would agree on my point, only some owners of an ASIC are defending their position !!! It is not only about me not able to afford one, you are really ignoring allot of facts here.

You are rehashing the same stuff now.  As I said, a widget is worth what the market will pay.  Right now, people are happy to pay 49.99 for a blade that will be profitable in 6 months or less.  It's hard to argue something is not worth what something is selling for like hotcakes, but you are attempting to do so.  Good luck.  I disagree.

and I do respect your point of view, but this doesn't make it right.

[pikeadz]

Nothing at all in my post suggested centralization.  ASICs are already in the hands of hundreds if not thousands of people.  How do you figure anything close to centralization is going on right now?

Together, ASICMiner and BTCGuild could attempt a 51% attack. Presuming of course that there is some hash power on BTCGuild that is discrete from ASICMiner.
The ASICMiner deployment alone controls over 20% of the network.

His issue is with the price of ASICs, not with the percentage of the hash rate amongst the pools as I understood it.  People are free to mine where they like.  If you want 1000 pools contributing to decentralization, good luck with that.  I'd rather mine in a pool that has a reasonable chance at finding a block.

[pikeadz]

Sorry if I'm missing something, but http://www.asicminer.co/ doesn't seem to have anything for sale.  Is there another website?  Are they out of stock?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=204030.0

[Bitcoinorama]

The issue, say with ASICminer as an example is that they are now so powerful, they have to limit their deployment until some competition catches up. That's not catches up with ASICminer, they just need to increase the cumulative hashrate so much so ASICminer can then deploy more ASICs for themselves.

Because there is zero real competition for them currently, they have decided to sell their old stock, which is exactly what their blades are, old used parts if their mining process.

They sell at inflated prices to what manufacturing costs were under the guise of allowing the free market to dictate value. They then also sell worthless USB novelty trinkets based on their old ASIC design in the meantime preparing for their gen 2 chips.

The free market has decided the value of these blades are equal to the blade not making any real profit until a point when there is likely to be competition. Instead of just buying coins, those put purchasing their blades ensure the funds are continuously paid to the ASICminer monopoly. At the same time their funds are tied up free of alternative investment as and when it appears. Although that's largely down to impatience on their part.

Avalon have zero non recurring engineering costs, but are throwing out thousands of heavily marked up chips to people as they have no competition there under the guise of decentralisation. The fact is their chip buying wallet has enough funds for 760,000 of their overpriced chips. There has been a handful of griup buys on this forum. Where is the rest going to?

What are the chances ASICminer are selling off old stock to kit themselves out with their new gen2 chips those people paying OTT prices for their current blades are paying for to deploy before they think their blades will become profitable for them.

There is no fairness in this. This isn't about not being affluent enough. It's a shady business model that doesn't benefit Bitcoin.

We need some new and serious contenders and we need them now.

Avalon and ASICminer and even BFL have good point about them, but Avalon and ASICminers pricing structure is not one of them...

[pikeadz]

The issue, say with ASICminer as an example is that they are now so powerful, they have to limit their deployment until some competition catches up. That's not catches up with ASICminer, they just need to increase the cumulative hashrate so much so ASICminer can then deploy more ASICs for themselves.

Because there is zero real competition for them currently, they have decided to sell their old stock, which is exactly what their blades are, old used parts if their mining process.

I don't think you have bought a blade, or researched this well enough.  Are you seriously implying that the blades are used?  If so, now you are just spreading lies.

[Bitcoinorama]

The issue, say with ASICminer as an example is that they are now so powerful, they have to limit their deployment until some competition catches up. That's not catches up with ASICminer, they just need to increase the cumulative hashrate so much so ASICminer can then deploy more ASICs for themselves.

Because there is zero real competition for them currently, they have decided to sell their old stock, which is exactly what their blades are, old used parts if their mining process.

I don't think you have bought a blade, or researched this well enough.  Are you seriously implying that the blades are used?  If so, now you are just spreading lies.

Apologies, but I was under the impression they were indeed used.

[nosurrender]

Nothing at all in my post suggested centralization.  ASICs are already in the hands of hundreds if not thousands of people.  How do you figure anything close to centralization is going on right now?

Also, what is the problem with waiting a few more months until the price comes down to something he can afford?

This has nothing to do with centralization and everything to do with greed.  He can't have what he wants right now, and therefore it is overpriced in his opinion.

I did´t assume you suggest centralization. But I have strong concern that this is the road we´re all on if we don´t pay close attantion to what is going on right now. As far as I know (and please correct me if I´m wrong) Avalon was the first to ship a batch of 300 ASICs, is processing a 2nd batch right now. ASICminer kept the most hashing power in it´s own hands (not shares, actual control over what their doing) and BFL, well, we all know about BFL.

One Avalon has about 65 G hashing power. Thats about 100 x a 7970 or 200 x a 7850 (e.g. of course).
USB Miners could easily be ignored, they are equal to a 7850 minus the cost of power.

It doesn´t matter if the first wave of Avalons will be resold for a huge profit or will be used for mining right away - the increase of difficulty will throw any of todays "mini miner" with a GPU or even a few of them under the bus - they will most likely switch to scrypt. Even when Avalon-Chips finally reach customers and more mining devices will be on the market, you have to buy a ASIC to participate in the network just to even with your power bill.

This will change the network. Not everyone with a computer who is interested in the idea can join, just the ones who care enough to actually buy hardware that can be used for nothing else than mining will be there - in the long run. That´s centralization - plain and simple.

[cryptograd]

should be an early adopter, I didnt even know what Bitcoin was when AVALON was taking orders.  

Yeah but dont worry once in a lifetime chances are what bitcoin is all about this will happen cyclically in the bitcoin community, have faith and make sure you catch the next train in time.

[pikeadz]

The issue, say with ASICminer as an example is that they are now so powerful, they have to limit their deployment until some competition catches up. That's not catches up with ASICminer, they just need to increase the cumulative hashrate so much so ASICminer can then deploy more ASICs for themselves.

Because there is zero real competition for them currently, they have decided to sell their old stock, which is exactly what their blades are, old used parts if their mining process.

I don't think you have bought a blade, or researched this well enough.  Are you seriously implying that the blades are used?  If so, now you are just spreading lies.

Apologies, but I was under the impression they were indeed used.

Nope, they are very obviously packaged brand new with mfg date printed and everything.  Sealed antistatic packaging, no dust or fingerprints.  Both of mine were this way.

[pikeadz]

Nothing at all in my post suggested centralization.  ASICs are already in the hands of hundreds if not thousands of people.  How do you figure anything close to centralization is going on right now?

Also, what is the problem with waiting a few more months until the price comes down to something he can afford?

This has nothing to do with centralization and everything to do with greed.  He can't have what he wants right now, and therefore it is overpriced in his opinion.

I did´t assume you suggest centralization. But I have strong concern that this is the road we´re all on if we don´t pay close attantion to what is going on right now. As far as I know (and please correct me if I´m wrong) Avalon was the first to ship a batch of 300 ASICs, is processing a 2nd batch right now. ASICminer kept the most hashing power in it´s own hands (not shares, actual control over what their doing) and BFL, well, we all know about BFL.

One Avalon has about 65 G hashing power. Thats about 100 x a 7970 or 200 x a 7850 (e.g. of course).
USB Miners could easily be ignored, they are equal to a 7850 minus the cost of power.

It doesn´t matter if the first wave of Avalons will be resold for a huge profit or will be used for mining right away - the increase of difficulty will throw any of todays "mini miner" with a GPU or even a few of them under the bus - they will most likely switch to scrypt. Even when Avalon-Chips finally reach customers and more mining devices will be on the market, you have to buy a ASIC to participate in the network just to even with your power bill.

This will change the network. Not everyone with a computer who is interested in the idea can join, just the ones who care enough to actually buy hardware that can be used for nothing else than mining will be there - in the long run. That´s centralization - plain and simple.

People have been predicting the end of GPU mining for years.  My 7950s are still very profitable and will stay on.  You also forget to take into account exchange rate.  As Bitcoins become more valuable, the length of time GPUs remain profitable is extended.  And I'd guess most of us believe the price will go up over time or we wouldn't be here in the first place. 

And scrypt is dead at the moment.  Litecoin hasn't been as profitable to mine as bitcoin for at least a week.  (shhh, don't tell too many litecoiners, but check dustcoin's calculator for yourself)

ASICs will inevitably come down in price.  When they do, I think all these worries will be moot.

[mmitech]

Nothing at all in my post suggested centralization.  ASICs are already in the hands of hundreds if not thousands of people.  How do you figure anything close to centralization is going on right now?

Also, what is the problem with waiting a few more months until the price comes down to something he can afford?

This has nothing to do with centralization and everything to do with greed.  He can't have what he wants right now, and therefore it is overpriced in his opinion.

I did´t assume you suggest centralization. But I have strong concern that this is the road we´re all on if we don´t pay close attantion to what is going on right now. As far as I know (and please correct me if I´m wrong) Avalon was the first to ship a batch of 300 ASICs, is processing a 2nd batch right now. ASICminer kept the most hashing power in it´s own hands (not shares, actual control over what their doing) and BFL, well, we all know about BFL.

One Avalon has about 65 G hashing power. Thats about 100 x a 7970 or 200 x a 7850 (e.g. of course).
USB Miners could easily be ignored, they are equal to a 7850 minus the cost of power.

It doesn´t matter if the first wave of Avalons will be resold for a huge profit or will be used for mining right away - the increase of difficulty will throw any of todays "mini miner" with a GPU or even a few of them under the bus - they will most likely switch to scrypt. Even when Avalon-Chips finally reach customers and more mining devices will be on the market, you have to buy a ASIC to participate in the network just to even with your power bill.

This will change the network. Not everyone with a computer who is interested in the idea can join, just the ones who care enough to actually buy hardware that can be used for nothing else than mining will be there - in the long run. That´s centralization - plain and simple.

People have been predicting the end of GPU mining for years.  My 7950s are still very profitable and will stay on.  You also forget to take into account exchange rate.  As Bitcoins become more valuable, the length of time GPUs remain profitable is extended.  And I'd guess most of us believe the price will go up over time or we wouldn't be here in the first place. 

And scrypt is dead at the moment.  Litecoin hasn't been as profitable to mine as bitcoin for at least a week.  (shhh, don't tell too many litecoiners, but check dustcoin's calculator for yourself)

ASICs will inevitably come down in price.  When they do, I think all these worries will be moot.

I am sure that you will rethink this after 2-3 weeks when your 7950's wont pay for your energy bills, actually http://allchains.info/ is showing a growth for diff.factor of 21% today,i am really curious what will this be after 3 weeks 

[KS]

You can be the first to jump the gun then. Disconnect your GPU.

Or keep on mining and see what happens. Difficulty prediction is in the weeds right now, don't give it too much importance. Check how much BTC you make, check the exchange rate. That way you'll know whether your GPU is still useful for mining. I know I'm keeping mine for a while still...

[pikeadz]

I am sure that you will rethink this after 2-3 weeks when your 7950's wont pay for your energy bills, actually http://allchains.info/ is showing a growth for diff.factor of 21% today,i am really curious what will this be after 3 weeks  

As I said, people have been predicting this for years.  2-3 weeks you can go ahead and send me a PM and I'll let you know if I've powered them down.  I have nothing to hide.  

But let's do some quick math.  I have a reliable, constant 3500MH/s with my six 7950s.  If difficulty is 14,000,000, they will generate ~$490 a month.  I currently pay $140/month in electricity to run them.  So the difficulty will have to be 49,000,000 before they become unprofitable at the current exchange rate.  Source:  http://www.alloscomp.com/bitcoin/calculator

If you are saying the difficulty is going to be 49,000,000 in 2 to 3 weeks, I think you should research difficulty jumps.  It cannot rise more than a factor of 4 in a single jump.  Also, you are not taking the exchange rate into account.  If bitcoins rise in value, my GPUs will remain profitable even longer.  If it falls a little, well, I will probably continue to mine because I believe it will rise overall in the long term.

[mmitech]

I am sure that you will rethink this after 2-3 weeks when your 7950's wont pay for your energy bills, actually http://allchains.info/ is showing a growth for diff.factor of 21% today,i am really curious what will this be after 3 weeks  

As I said, people have been predicting this for years.  2-3 weeks you can go ahead and send me a PM and I'll let you know if I've powered them down.  I have nothing to hide.  

But let's do some quick math.  I have a reliable, constant 3500MH/s with my six 7950s.  If difficulty is 14,000,000, they will generate ~$490 a month.  I currently pay $140/month in electricity to run them.  So the difficulty will have to be 49,000,000 before they become unprofitable.  Source:  http://www.alloscomp.com/bitcoin/calculator

If you are saying the difficulty is going to be 49,000,000 in 2 to 3 weeks, I think you should research difficulty jumps.  It cannot rise more than a factor of 4 in a single jump.  Also, you are not taking the exchange rate into account.  If bitcoins rise in value, my GPUs will remain profitable even longer.  If it falls a little, well, I will probably continue to mine because I believe it will rise overall in the long term.

but in the other hand you could get an ASIC if they were at a reasonable price and join the club of ASIC miners, this is exactly what we are trying to say here, I work at Goodyear tires as an IT engineer,  Goodyear owns Dunlop, Debica, Fulda and Sava, and we full-fill all our customer needs for price/quality and we still make a decent profit , this is how ASIC chips should be. companys could still make a huge profit with much lower prices so more miners could get the chance to join *decentralization*    

[dogie]

What are you shitting. An erupter blade is 13 GH for 50btc delivered globally within 3 days. ROI is 120-180 days depending on when you bought.

That is a good return, but compare the price to the Avalon units and 50BTC for 12GH/s is fairly pricey. On the other hand, the erupter blades are actually available.
The erupter blades will make money, but not everyone has $8K to drop on a single piece of hashing equipment.

The difference is Avalon was an unknown seller, had no significant proof of concept, and there was a cheaper alternative in BFL that appeared way more reputable. Still, delivery "in the future". ASICMiner is proven, has 30,000 of the same product mining themselves, is publicly traded and has items in hand.

Risk = reward, its no secret

$1,500.00 for 68 Gh/s

should've had faith in Yifu

If I'd head of bitcoins I would have put $8-10k in when they were around $6. Very surprised I didn't hear of it as at the time I was heavily in the hardware business.

Nothing at all in my post suggested centralization.  ASICs are already in the hands of hundreds if not thousands of people.  How do you figure anything close to centralization is going on right now?

Together, ASICMiner and BTCGuild could attempt a 51% attack. Presuming of course that there is some hash power on BTCGuild that is discrete from ASICMiner.
The ASICMiner deployment alone controls over 20% of the network.

....no, just no. That's like saying "OMG IF EVERYONE IN BITCOIN JOINED TOGETHER THEY COULD 51%". Use common sense please.

[wrenchmonkey]

I agree that they're overpriced, I just disagree with you in how you arrived at that conclusion.

ASIC Hardware (with the exception of BFL which doesn't count, because it's not something you can actually get your hands on right now), is over-priced, but only in the sense that it's unlikely to break even, or turn a decent profit at this point.

One's ability or inability to purchase a product has NOTHING to do with whether or not it's overpriced though. I can't afford to buy a 200,000 sq ft mansion, even if it's "under-priced" by market standards.

The reason these miners cost what they do is because the MARKET is willing to pay it. There are a lot of foolish people who aren't considering the return, and are focusing only on what they can afford (like yourself). What you can afford to pay, and what something's "worth" are not interchangeable terms. As long as people continue to overpay for ASIC hardware, it will continue to be overpriced, regardless of what your own individual finances look like.

[pikeadz]

but in the other hand you could get an ASIC if they were at a reasonable price and join the club of ASIC miners, this is exactly what we are trying to say here, I work at Goodyear tires as an IT engineer,  Goodyear owns Dunlop, Debica, Fulda and Sava, and we full-fill all our customer needs for price/quality and we still make a decent profit , this is how ASIC chips should be. companys could still make a huge profit with much lower prices so more miners could get the chance to join *decentralization*    

And as I said before, you can get an ASIC.  You can either wait a few more months when the price plummets, or you can join a group buy, buy AM shares, etc.   Just because you can't have one right this second doesn't mean decentralization is being threatened or that they are so unafforable that a 51% attack is likely.  Quite the opposite.

I began buying bitcoins when they were $10 a coin.  This is affordable to me because I had the foresight and took the risk that you did not.  Don't penalize me because you didn't.  That's almost as bad as the people who say Bitcoin will never succeed because it unfairly awards early adopters.  Do you believe it is a ponzi scheme too?