BFL rewarding Jalapeno orders at the expense of LS/S/MR orders

[DPoS]

..don't get me wrong.. I would LOVE to receive my stuff asap so I can get in on this "under 50 million" difficulty.  I personally think Butterfly labs WILL ship my stuff. It's not the how, who, and what.. it's the WHEN that determines if I make a couple of grand.. or make 10-20 grand.  No matter how much Butterfly labs messes up and shows its mismanagement, I still think they have every intention of fulfilling their orders and staying in the business for the long haul.  That's about all I can say right now though.

they love you man...  but for YOUR sake please spread out your bets though

there is a real reason that ASICminer gets the price they ask..  wake up to that fact

[hexed]

..don't get me wrong.. I would LOVE to receive my stuff asap so I can get in on this "under 50 million" difficulty.  I personally think Butterfly labs WILL ship my stuff. It's not the how, who, and what.. it's the WHEN that determines if I make a couple of grand.. or make 10-20 grand.  No matter how much Butterfly labs messes up and shows its mismanagement, I still think they have every intention of fulfilling their orders and staying in the business for the long haul.  That's about all I can say right now though.

they love you man...  but for YOUR sake please spread out your bets though

there is a real reason that ASICminer gets the price they ask..  wake up to that fact

trust me.. if I had the money to buy into anything else at this point I would.  ASICs are super pricey and I've already woken up to that fact.  I can't afford asic miner equipment but they certainly demand the price.  Unfortunately I've put all my eggs in one basket.  IF I receive my product I'm 100% sure I'll make some money off of it (seeing that I have nothing truly invested.. making 10$ would be considered profit to me).   I assume that IF I receive my devices, the difficulty has to hit the 600 million range to be not worth it to me.  That is making ~100-125$ @ 40GH/s and 120$ bitcoins.  Let's not forget that by the time the difficulty is up to 600 million, we may see a significant rise in bitcoin prices.  If I get my device at the 50 million difficulty mark, I will still be making ~850$ a month.  If I save 4 bitcoins a month and after 6 months the difficulty is at 500 million, but bitcoins are 300$ a bitcoin, I will have saved 7200$ in bitcoins and will be making ~$366 a month.  That is only ~1.15 bitcoins a month @ 40GH/s @ 500 million difficulty @ $300 bitcoins.  For me, nothing to scoff at and of course it is purely speculation.  Take it for what it is worth, but we have a lot of variables that determine the profitability of different mining devices.  Hopefully the stars align for most of us (adopters of BFL, asicminer, Avalon, bitcoin horders, etc..)


The only thing that could happen is BFL just picks up and disappears with all of our money.  Time will tell but I'm still leaning on them staying in the business.  If not.. oh well.  Maybe I'll score it big on something else.  If I was a huge investor, or sunk ANY money into this I was not already writing off as lost, I would have a totally different outlook.  Might as well have spent my bitcoins at the bicoin casino if that was the case.   

[hexed]

blah blah blah

I TOTALLY get it now.  You have late April Jalapeno orders.  So obviously you would rather see all the jalapenos get fulfilled before the other devices.  Yeah, your opinion is not biased at ALL. 

No, it would be in my best interest to have ALL orders held until they can all be delivered at the same time, like some people apparently want. I don't expect that I'll see my Jalpeno until WELL after the other hardware is completed and rolled out. But it seems pretty obvious that when 90% of the pre-orders are Jalpenos, and Jalpenos were the simplest hardware to design and complete, that you'd be seeing lots of Jalpenos rolling out before all the big guns. This isn't rocket science.

Jalpeno buyers aren't "being rewarded at the expense of LS/S/MR orders" as the OP asserts.

damn dude.. you really are "out there".  You can't just "say something" and it be fact.  No, if you have a jalapeno order, it would be in YOUR best interest for them to finish their line of jalapeno order shipments. 

Facts:
This means you would get your jalapeno (even being an April order), before ANY single, little single, or minirig orders are fulfilled.  This means that you would be mining on devices before 100's of terahash are in the wild due to BFL shipping out their other products.

But it seems pretty obvious that when 90% of the pre-orders are Jalpenos, and Jalpenos were the simplest hardware to design and complete, that you'd be seeing lots of Jalpenos rolling out before all the big guns. This isn't rocket science.

No, that actually isn't obvious.  Just the opposite on several statements. 

From the beginning they planned on releasing ALL products at the same time.  In fact, if they even ONCE said that they would be shipping out Jalapeno's first, someone like me would have kept my order of 5 jalapenos instead of upgrading my order to 1 little single (when the little single announcement was made).  In fact I didn't want 6 Jalapenos because back then we thought it would require USB power which meant running 6 jalapenos on one USB hub would be a pain.  Now that I know that the Jalapenos not only have their own power brick, but are shipping NOW.. I'd say I would have made different decisions back then. 

Furthermore, provide some sort of proof that 90% of their pre orders are Jalapenos.  Especially after allowing Jalapeno orders to be upgraded to the $699 little singles, 90% is not a correct number.  Also, just because Jalapenos are easier to make, they aren't THAT much easier.  Also, why are you listing only those two "facts" as your arguing points.  You are ignoring the fact that the Jalapenos are the ONLY ONES EVEN READY TO MAKE.  In the past month they have not HAD the boards for the LS, Singles, and minirigs.  You can't assemble and ship something that don't have parts ready.  This isn't rocket science.

[Bitsaurus]

I don't understand what you're asking for, I guess. The LS/S/MR aren't available to ship. They're still working on those. Are you suggesting that they shouldn't be shipping any product out, just because they can't ship everything?

I get that it sucks that the other models aren't ready, but there are WAAAAY more Jalapeno orders than there are of anything else, so it just makes sense to start filling the queue that they're able to fill, while they work toward completing the other products in their line. It's a shitty situation, but what justification is there for punishing the bulk of their customers who ordered Jalapenos?

This sounds an awful lot like a conversation I heard between one of my friends and his daughter recently:

[In tears] "Dad, *sob* my *sob* balloon *sob* popped."
"I'm sorry that happened, sweetie"
"Yeah, well *sob* Emma's balloon isn't *sob* popped, and it's *sob* not fair!"
"What do you think would be fair?"
"We *sniffle* need to pop HER balloon too!" 

Objection. Lacks foundation, calls for speculation.

Boy you're really living up to your reputation aren't you?

You clearly cannot read with comprehension or you have chosen to respond without reading.  Where did I even state that I thought punitive measures against Jalapeno buyers was a good idea?  Please quote it and bold it.

What BFL is doing is giving an unfair advantage to Jalapeno owners.  Since they have not decided to go with 1/3rd plan, and they have not decided to hold back Jalapeno orders they should implement a different plan that would be fair to the other purchasers.

Jalapeno orders may be numerically larger but by purchase values I would clearly say LS/S/MR people funded BFL for the most part.  Are you going to argue that somebody buying quantity 10k of a 3 cent item at a Walmart store should weigh more heavily that the 8000 other item purchases that might be made on a typical day (hypothetical).

What they may consider if they are not willing to actively put LS/S/MR production as a top priority is converting the other orders to Bitforce 5s

[wrenchmonkey]

I don't understand what you're asking for, I guess. The LS/S/MR aren't available to ship. They're still working on those. Are you suggesting that they shouldn't be shipping any product out, just because they can't ship everything?

I get that it sucks that the other models aren't ready, but there are WAAAAY more Jalapeno orders than there are of anything else, so it just makes sense to start filling the queue that they're able to fill, while they work toward completing the other products in their line. It's a shitty situation, but what justification is there for punishing the bulk of their customers who ordered Jalapenos?

This sounds an awful lot like a conversation I heard between one of my friends and his daughter recently:

[In tears] "Dad, *sob* my *sob* balloon *sob* popped."
"I'm sorry that happened, sweetie"
"Yeah, well *sob* Emma's balloon isn't *sob* popped, and it's *sob* not fair!"
"What do you think would be fair?"
"We *sniffle* need to pop HER balloon too!" 

Objection. Lacks foundation, calls for speculation.

Boy you're really living up to your reputation aren't you?

You clearly cannot read with comprehension or you have chosen to respond without reading.  Where did I even state that I thought punitive measures against Jalapeno buyers was a good idea?  Please quote it and bold it.

What BFL is doing is giving an unfair advantage to Jalapeno owners.  Since they have not decided to go with 1/3rd plan, and they have not decided to hold back Jalapeno orders they should implement a different plan that would be fair to the other purchasers.

Jalapeno orders may be numerically larger but by purchase values I would clearly say LS/S/MR people funded BFL for the most part.  Are you going to argue that somebody buying quantity 10k of a 3 cent item at a Walmart store should weigh more heavily that the 8000 other item purchases that might be made on a typical day (hypothetical).

You said that Jalpeno buyers were "being rewarded at the expense of others" by the mere fact that their orders are being shipped. I was saying I don't get WHAT you're suggesting by that claim. I can only assume that you mean that either they shouldn't be shipping Jalpeno orders, or they should magically change the circumstances, and WILL the other hardware into completion. Which is it? The latter isn't an option, so I presumed the former. Mistake on my part?

Assembly is a completely different beast than development and testing. I'm sure they don't have their design team on the assembly line, so it's silly to assume that the shipment of jalpeno orders is in any way taking away from the development of the other hardware. The problem is that they're still developing the other stuff. Not that they're sitting on them in order to prioritize Jalpenos.

If wal-mart has one hundred 27" inch TVs, but they're out of stock on the 40", 55" and 70" TVs, does that mean they should halt sales of the 27" TVs, so that the 27" customers aren't being "Rewarded at the expense of the 40", 55" and 70", customers"?

What they may consider if they are not willing to actively put LS/S/MR production as a top priority is converting the other orders to Bitforce 5s

I can see your point here.

I don't know that it would actually result in you getting your hashing power any faster, considering that it would just extend the queue significantly. It's a lot more work to assemble 500 Jalpenos than 50 Singles. So depending on how close they are to completing the development of the other hardware, customers might be shooting themselves in the foot if they demand that BFL ship piles and piles of Jalpenos, in place of higher-density hardware. Neither of us knows how close they are go finishing dev on other products though, so it's impossible to figure out what would be ideal.

Like I said, I'm pretty confident most of you guys will get your high-density hardware WELL before I ever get my cute little Jalpeno desk toy, so I really don't have much of a dog in this fight. I've put most of my money on different horses. The Jalpeno is really just a novelty to me. I don't expect it to make me rich.

[Bicknellski]

wrenchmonkey

This user is currently ignored.

Problem solved.

So again the point here really is those waiting on the LS/S/MR are not being put out by the Jala being shipped. They don't have the LS/S or MR built.

[DPoS]

..don't get me wrong.. I would LOVE to receive my stuff asap so I can get in on this "under 50 million" difficulty.  I personally think Butterfly labs WILL ship my stuff. It's not the how, who, and what.. it's the WHEN that determines if I make a couple of grand.. or make 10-20 grand.  No matter how much Butterfly labs messes up and shows its mismanagement, I still think they have every intention of fulfilling their orders and staying in the business for the long haul.  That's about all I can say right now though.

they love you man...  but for YOUR sake please spread out your bets though

there is a real reason that ASICminer gets the price they ask..  wake up to that fact

trust me.. if I had the money to buy into anything else at this point I would.  ASICs are super pricey and I've already woken up to that fact.  I can't afford asic miner equipment but they certainly demand the price.  Unfortunately I've put all my eggs in one basket.  IF I receive my product I'm 100% sure I'll make some money off of it (seeing that I have nothing truly invested.. making 10$ would be considered profit to me).   I assume that IF I receive my devices, the difficulty has to hit the 600 million range to be not worth it to me.  That is making ~100-125$ @ 40GH/s and 120$ bitcoins.  Let's not forget that by the time the difficulty is up to 600 million, we may see a significant rise in bitcoin prices.  If I get my device at the 50 million difficulty mark, I will still be making ~850$ a month.  If I save 4 bitcoins a month and after 6 months the difficulty is at 500 million, but bitcoins are 300$ a bitcoin, I will have saved 7200$ in bitcoins and will be making ~$366 a month.  That is only ~1.15 bitcoins a month @ 40GH/s @ 500 million difficulty @ $300 bitcoins.  For me, nothing to scoff at and of course it is purely speculation.  Take it for what it is worth, but we have a lot of variables that determine the profitability of different mining devices.  Hopefully the stars align for most of us (adopters of BFL, asicminer, Avalon, bitcoin horders, etc..)


The only thing that could happen is BFL just picks up and disappears with all of our money.  Time will tell but I'm still leaning on them staying in the business.  If not.. oh well.  Maybe I'll score it big on something else.  If I was a huge investor, or sunk ANY money into this I was not already writing off as lost, I would have a totally different outlook.  Might as well have spent my bitcoins at the bicoin casino if that was the case.   

you got it right that the only way to get ahead is to take an early risk on one of these ASIC horses since once it can be bought off the shelf the ROI is pretty long (USBees, etc)  & DIY projects have their own set of stars to be aligned


Maybe you can get BFL to ship you a bunch of Jallys

The price of bitcoins is a whole other beast..  if there isn't much of an economy it will start to tank as every ASIC miner sells quickly to get back their ROI..  then after that swoon, the price will grow again next year..  BUT if there is more and more ways for merchants to spend bitcoins on things they need without converting, then you get that side to grow..and offer more things in bitcoin.. then miners won't rush to convert and will just use bitcoins

perhaps to make it rich now, get into other areas of the bitcoin ecosystem?   Mining is getting to be a crowded trade... but I have my hat in the kncminer for a saturn or two since I am a 1-500 pre-reg.   That will really increase my current 2Gh mining for sure

[Paladin69]

They are still shipping 1st month jalapeno orders.  If they start shipping 2nd and 3rd month jalapeno's before 1st month MR's & Singles, then it is time to start getting ticked.

[therustytrombone]

You guys really don't see what's going on here?  Greed is seriously blinding. 

[hexed]

You guys really don't see what's going on here?  Greed is seriously blinding. 

Please tell us what is going on here oh mighty rustytrombone

..but who are you to label someone or something greed or greedy?  It is a basic request for a company to honor their original plans.  For someone like me that has a little single and a couple of Jalapenos on order, I could have kept a big order of all Jalapenos if I would have known they were shipping sooner and had their own power bricks now.  IF they get to me a month earlier I could have a couple of thousand more than I would have had.  It's pretty simple, and certainly not greed.  If you think it is greed that means this amount of money is excess for you and beyond what you need to live comfortably.  For me, this money is about paying for my first child (due in September).. about being able to pay off debt from Dr bills after being diagnosed with MS last year (Specialist visits, hospital stays, MRI after MRI, infusions, etc., from bills for a dead dog... for bills when the sewage backed up into my home from a busted pipe under my lawn.. from the engine replacement that cost me about 5K.  Having excess?  Not quite.  Try "getting back to having a savings account where I was last year at this time". 

But to be honest, these people who are not getting their first week Singles are seeing hundreds of Jalapenos ready to be shipped out in a picture today.  That just doesn't sit well with most people who made a "investment" that was delayed MULTIPLE times.  Everyone is on edge.  And this is not like a regular product.  I've said this time after time, but the more hashing power on the network and the more time passes, the less people make.  So for people who ordered say 3 singles (180 GH/s).. might be ok with receiving 90 jalapenos.  Anything to get that hashing power, and if they got it one month early, it could mean the difference of 20K just this month alone.  That's no chump change, and for a person that made a ~$4000 high risk investment, would be nice if they received their shipments in the same order as everyone who ordered.

As Paladin69 said though.. they have only shipped out first month orders.  I think the complaining is going to get worse, and more justified if several months of preorders are going out for Jalapenos and LS, SC orders are still not shipping.  I've said it before and will say it again, only time will tell.  I hope it is kind for all of us.

[DPoS]

you might want to grab a refund and go buy a kncminer Saturn

175 Gh for $3800

[peterepeat]

Personally, I have an interest in getting deliveries for Jalapenos, SC Singles and Batch 3 Avalon.
I feel like I have gone through the "5 stages of pre order"
1. Denial (Im sure they are on track)
2. Anger. (A 2 month delay - NO WAY!  )
3. Bargaining ( I'll add a few more product orders. Maybe add 2GH, Maybe add Express Shipping)
4. Depression. No updates from Avalon. Hello?
5. Acceptance. BTC are gone. If I get a knock on the door from the postman, who knows?

I dont really want to start the cycle again with KNC, but all the best to them.

[PuertoLibre]

Just an observation, my jalapeño will be profitable until difficulty > 2 billion, profit window will be open for a while yet.

At 1.9 Billion, what is your profitability index?

[PuertoLibre]

https://forums.butterflylabs.com/pre-sales-questions/3055-bfl-breaking-paypals-user-agreement.html

Checkout the response by Josh.

It appears that BFL may have deleted a thread that read "Tick Tock...." relating to the large difficulty rise in the last few hours. This was with only a hundred (or two) Jallys coming online.

[PuertoLibre]

Just an observation, my jalapeño will be profitable until difficulty > 2 billion, profit window will be open for a while yet.

At 1.9 Billion, what is your profitability index?

By the way, I checked your claim, at 5Gh/s you are only making...15cents per day @ 1.9 Billion difficulty.

Obviously...I call BS.

That is not even including the PC that runs the hardware. You may need to redo your calculations.

http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/

[Cluster2k]

I predicted this situation last year, where BFL customers who are still waiting and looking at others receiving their orders are going to turn on the early receivers and declare it's not fair.  This was always predictable.  BFL was not and cannot be in a position to ship everyone's orders at once.  So the 5Gh units are ready first.  Well, so be it.  Ship what's ready instead of annoying an even larger pool of customers. 

Imagine if BFL declared they're delaying shipment of all 5Gh units a few months so that all product lines can be ready at the same time.  There would be a riot.

[Xian01]

you might want to grab a refund and go buy a kncminer Saturn

175 Gh for $3800

 What is community consensus on those ? Are they legit ? Have not followed the entire thread for lack of time Very attractive @ $3.8k for 175GH/s if they can deliver.

[wrenchmonkey]

I predicted this situation last year, where BFL customers who are still waiting and looking at others receiving their orders are going to turn on the early receivers and declare it's not fair.  This was always predictable.  BFL was not and cannot be in a position to ship everyone's orders at once.  So the 5Gh units are ready first.  Well, so be it.  Ship what's ready instead of annoying an even larger pool of customers. 

Imagine if BFL declared they're delaying shipment of all 5Gh units a few months so that all product lines can be ready at the same time.  There would be a riot.

Look at that! Somebody with some common sense! 

[GigaWave]

Difficulty jumped from 12 million to 15 million just today. The largest jump yet. And this is only with a tiny fraction of Jalepeno's going online... The next difficulty jump is estimated at 21 to 30 million.

Now pre-order customer are going to run their numbers and a lot of decisions are going to be made very soon...

God help BFL. The refund window is about to get mobbed.

This is a pretty ignorant comment..  The jump really has nothing to do with the current ~30 jalapenos in the wild.

Im sorry, I stopped reading at that IGNORANT comment as you obviously do not know what you are talking about. FYI, for the people that need it spelled out. I'm referring to black bold text.

[GigaWave]

I predicted this situation last year, where BFL customers who are still waiting and looking at others receiving their orders are going to turn on the early receivers and declare it's not fair.  This was always predictable.  BFL was not and cannot be in a position to ship everyone's orders at once.  So the 5Gh units are ready first.  Well, so be it.  Ship what's ready instead of annoying an even larger pool of customers.  

Imagine if BFL declared they're delaying shipment of all 5Gh units a few months so that all product lines can be ready at the same time.  There would be a riot.

Look at that! Somebody with some common sense!  

What delusional world do some one you people live in. You pay for your crap first, you should get you crap first. It shouldn't be handled any other way. You can't make it any fairer.