Difficulty jumps 28%

[Sitarow]

Anyone want to hazard a guess at what the difficulty will be in November 2013 or December 2013?

60 million?

Feb 2nd 2013 75m - 110m

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[Jaden]

And I only just got wrung out for using 26% in an example ROI calculation back in the noobs section https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=225285.0;all. Perhaps I should ask for my "Victory" back?

Interesting times. I think the economists use the term "Irrational exuberance". All bubbles burst (not quite the right analogy as difficulty won't drop precipitously, maybe more of a Gold Rush to ASIC canyon). I guess most ASIC pre-orders are going to get a little burned (certainly disappointed). The early chip orders may turn out OK though. Shame I didn't get in early. Hindsight would be a fine thing.

Yup, I got reamed for my "GPU's will not pay back" thread when assuming around 18% increases (which has been about average for a few months, and ASICs have only started trickling out). It's very difficult to find ANY investment right now that is a sure thing.

Maybe buying Bitcoins with fiat? I just started mining last month with some GPUs I bought off of Craigslist, so I'm way late to the party, but I got them cheap enough that I should be able to at least break even, but that's about it.

[BittBurger]

In my opinion, there are no ASIC devices that can be ordered now and ship immediately that will ever earn what they cost in BTC from this point forward.

That's right, the price per GH/s for ASICs that you can get right now are just too high and it will take a year or more at current and slightly higher difficulties to recoup that initial investment.

I was told that the 50Gh/s machines currently will produce about 2 BTC per day.

At $120 per BTC, that is $240 per day.

If a 50 from BFL costs $2499, "ships today" (comment above), why would you never make your money back? You would have your money back in just 10 days. Wrong?

Maybe an ASIC isn't the same as the BFL 50Gh/s device and I'm getting confused.

-Burger-

[notlist3d]

At $120 per BTC, that is $240 per day.

If a 50 from BFL costs $2499, "ships today" (comment above), why would you never make your money back? You would have your money back in just 10 days. Wrong?

Maybe an ASIC isn't the same as the BFL 50Gh/s device and I'm getting confused.

-Burger-

Keyword is BFL... if they delivered on what they said everyone on this forum would have multiple asic's but read other threads on BFL and see their issues.

[SGExodus]

I was told that the 50Gh/s machines currently will produce about 2 BTC per day.

At $120 per BTC, that is $240 per day.

If a 50 from BFL costs $2499, "ships today" (comment above), why would you never make your money back? You would have your money back in just 10 days. Wrong?

Maybe an ASIC isn't the same as the BFL 50Gh/s device and I'm getting confused.

-Burger-

Machine that you can't buy now, i.e.  you have to pre-order with blind faith,  can potentially make profit.  But you have no certainty on when they will ship.     BFL only shipped some small quanity of 5G/hs machine to customers that pre-ordered 1 years ago, and Avalon have missed their Batch 2 pre-order by close to 2 months now.    

A 50G/hs machine may have a potential life time earning of 280 BTC, but each week delay is going to cost your 25+ BTC lost in revenue if the current difficulty growth trend continue.    If you receive the machine only in the 10th week,  you would not make any profit from the mining, and would be better off spending the money to buy bitcoin directly now.

On the other hand, Machines that you can buy now, such as ASICMIner's USB stick or Blade, are so overpriced that you will never make back your investment.

[btcfarseer.com]

Hi guys, we are a bunch of guts who also keep watching difficulty change, so we build a lottery game for guessing difficulty. It just released, you can check out this website to see how other people bet the future difficulty for your reference or you can play with it! It's fun!
Website: http://btcfarseer.com
Forum Post: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=223850.msg2386345#msg2386345

[batman, not crabman]

So what happened this last 2 weeks then?

Did BFL start delivering more than a couple of units?
Did ASICMiner crank up some more blades?
Are Avalon mining with my unit

[bcpokey]

No one ever knows. ASICMiner is at about 30TH/sec now, some batch 2 Avalons are arriving, buncha chumps bought up ASICMiner blades, some unknown quantity of people have been getting jalapenos, and probably someone is sitting around mining with peoples preorder ASICs (maybe, dunno).

Only thing we can say is, It's going to get a whole lot worse before it gets better for almost anybody.

[Amph]

I was told that the 50Gh/s machines currently will produce about 2 BTC per day.

At $120 per BTC, that is $240 per day.

If a 50 from BFL costs $2499, "ships today" (comment above), why would you never make your money back? You would have your money back in just 10 days. Wrong?

Maybe an ASIC isn't the same as the BFL 50Gh/s device and I'm getting confused.

-Burger-

Machine that you can't buy now, i.e.  you have to pre-order with blind faith,  can potentially make profit.  But you have no certainty on when they will ship.     BFL only shipped some small quanity of 5G/hs machine to customers that pre-ordered 1 years ago, and Avalon have missed their Batch 2 pre-order by close to 2 months now.    

A 50G/hs machine may have a potential life time earning of 280 BTC, but each week delay is going to cost your 25+ BTC lost in revenue if the current difficulty growth trend continue.    If you receive the machine only in the 10th week,  you would not make any profit from the mining, and would be better off spending the money to buy bitcoin directly now.

On the other hand, Machines that you can buy now, such as ASICMIner's USB stick or Blade, are so overpriced that you will never make back your investment.

this is why pre-order asic is garbage, difficult will skyrocket before you get them, and you will end up paying more, of what they are worth

[Eastwind]

GPU's wont become useless they will just farm alt coins and exchange for BTC, The BTC market is about to take a whole bunch of steroids. Pulling up a recliner for this firework show over the coming months.

I have GPU only. At present, I move most of GPU to LTC. The only one I have not moved is the broken one, which can only mine BTC but would die mining LTC.

[Welsh]

Yep, now looking into it, ASIC aren't going to be very profitable, only the people selling them are going to really profit.
That's a huge increase.

[OnkelPaul]

This is the "selling shovels in a gold rush" thing on steroids.
If you can sell ASICs for more than they ever produce during their lifetime, you make a better profit than if you let them mine for yourself.
Of course, letting them mine for a time while the difficulty is still low enough and only selling them later is a guarantee for even better profit.

And I am absolutely convinced that the ASIC sellers can calculate and know at what price they must sell to make a profit.
The shovel makers in the gold rush could at least plausibly claim that dealing with them would create a win-win situation, as they themselves could not deliver the amount of work needed to mine with their tools.
But in the ASIC mining case there is no win-win - if it is more profitable for the seller to sell the hardware than to mine with it, it is with certainty not profitable for the buyer to mine with it.

Onkel Paul

[J35st3r]

if it is more profitable for the seller to sell the hardware than to mine with it, it is with certainty not profitable for the buyer to mine with it.

Onkel Paul

You're forgetting cash flow. The ASIC-CO's need to pay for chips, boards, production etc. So they sell in order to fund even more production. Or pre-order sales anyway. And if they're being devious they mine on the built pre-order kit until they are forced to deliver a few to keep the punters from getting too ansty.

[/TINFOILHAT=OFF]  But I'm sure thats not the case with our current set of manufacturers. Pretty sure anyway ...

[kendog77]

The ASIC price gouging continues.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=226676.0

Do your homework folks!

[p00chie]

i would say next diff increase is >50%
without asics bitcoins will be impossible to mine. wll who guessed that. lol.

litecoin diff will increase heavy too because there is no other place for gpus except ebay.

[donjonson]

The good thing about gpu is that you can resell it or get your 10 gpus and make a big counter strike with friends and son haha. With asics you can...

[azw409]

Well that's me hanging up my mining gear - luckily I just broke even on my ATI card in 2 months so now it'll go back on ebay.

So I converted some electricity into bitcoins for free - try that with your ASIC's you suckers.

[paszczakojad]

The best part is that, most consumers still don't have their hand on ASIC.

And won't have. Why should companies that invested millions in ASIC design sell their money-printing-machines instead of just using them to print money?

P.

[kendog77]

This is the "selling shovels in a gold rush" thing on steroids.
If you can sell ASICs for more than they ever produce during their lifetime, you make a better profit than if you let them mine for yourself.
Of course, letting them mine for a time while the difficulty is still low enough and only selling them later is a guarantee for even better profit.

And I am absolutely convinced that the ASIC sellers can calculate and know at what price they must sell to make a profit.
The shovel makers in the gold rush could at least plausibly claim that dealing with them would create a win-win situation, as they themselves could not deliver the amount of work needed to mine with their tools.
But in the ASIC mining case there is no win-win - if it is more profitable for the seller to sell the hardware than to mine with it, it is with certainty not profitable for the buyer to mine with it.

Onkel Paul

I absolutely agree with this. The lucky few who actually do have an ASIC now mine with it for a while, and then sell it for a tremendous profit (more than the machine will likely ever be able to mine) to maximize their profit.

If the masses can't get an ASICs device for close to the manufacturers cost plus a little profit instead of how much the machine can earn in Bitcoin, ASIC mining is losing game. I heard that ASICMiner pays ~$150 to manufacture a Blade, and sells them for over $6000!!! 

[FloridaBear]

This is the "selling shovels in a gold rush" thing on steroids.
If you can sell ASICs for more than they ever produce during their lifetime, you make a better profit than if you let them mine for yourself.
Of course, letting them mine for a time while the difficulty is still low enough and only selling them later is a guarantee for even better profit.

And I am absolutely convinced that the ASIC sellers can calculate and know at what price they must sell to make a profit.
The shovel makers in the gold rush could at least plausibly claim that dealing with them would create a win-win situation, as they themselves could not deliver the amount of work needed to mine with their tools.
But in the ASIC mining case there is no win-win - if it is more profitable for the seller to sell the hardware than to mine with it, it is with certainty not profitable for the buyer to mine with it.

Onkel Paul

I absolutely agree with this. The lucky few who actually do have an ASIC now mine with it for a while, and then sell it for a tremendous profit (more than the machine will likely ever be able to mine) to maximize their profit.

If the masses can't get an ASICs device for close to the manufacturers cost plus a little profit instead of how much the machine can earn in Bitcoin, ASIC mining is losing game. I heard that ASICMiner pays ~$150 to manufacture a Blade, and sells them for over $6000!!! 

Yes. I hope people do their homework and understand exponential growth, because that's what we're going to see for awhile. Starting today, a 1 GH ASIC miner will likely only produce about 3 BTC over its useful life. There's significant risk it will produce less. It boggles the mind how 13 GH blades are selling for 40+BTC and 65 GH miners are selling for 200BTC--there is very real risk that you won't break even, much less make significant profit.