Difficulty jumps 28%

[Shevek]

The latest difficulty predictions are looking like it's going to level off.
Which suits me just fine

Well, I think it's awfully early to project that. All we know for sure is that we increased 28% and then 24%. I would be pretty surprised to see an increase under 10%, though it's possible. We've averaged ~18% for a few months, so a reversion to the mean wouldn't be too surprising. That said, it sure seems like Avalon batch 2/3 will be shipping for awhile, and BFL keeps ramping up shipping. No sign that ASICMINER is slowing their deployment either. The ASIC wave is still building!

There should be a small slow down trend when GPUs disconnect. Mine are switched off since 2~3 weeks. Perhaps actually around 50 TH/s are due to GPUs still working.

[larem]

The latest difficulty predictions are looking like it's going to level off.
Which suits me just fine

Well, I think it's awfully early to project that. All we know for sure is that we increased 28% and then 24%. I would be pretty surprised to see an increase under 10%, though it's possible. We've averaged ~18% for a few months, so a reversion to the mean wouldn't be too surprising. That said, it sure seems like Avalon batch 2/3 will be shipping for awhile, and BFL keeps ramping up shipping. No sign that ASICMINER is slowing their deployment either. The ASIC wave is still building!

As of right now we're 6% through with this round and the difficulty is set to rise less than half a percent. Hopefully it stays like that for a while, :p.

[josh_nc]

Got a question. I have 2 blades @ 12.5GH/s each. I set 1 miner for both with difficulty 16. Is it the better choice or should I split into 2 miners @ diff 8?
Anyone attempted this?

[Syke]

You are right of course.
But i think the truly massive rises may be behind us.

Oh, the massive rise is just getting started.

[larem]

Got a question. I have 2 blades @ 12.5GH/s each. I set 1 miner for both with difficulty 16. Is it the better choice or should I split into 2 miners @ diff 8?
Anyone attempted this?

Both should be the same. The only time you need to change diff is when you are getting a lot of stales, as all it does is bundle more shares into one (layman's term). Ex. at diff 8 you will take 8x longer to submit a share than at diff 1, but you will still get credit for all 8.

[FloridaBear]

The latest difficulty predictions are looking like it's going to level off.
Which suits me just fine

Well, I think it's awfully early to project that. All we know for sure is that we increased 28% and then 24%. I would be pretty surprised to see an increase under 10%, though it's possible. We've averaged ~18% for a few months, so a reversion to the mean wouldn't be too surprising. That said, it sure seems like Avalon batch 2/3 will be shipping for awhile, and BFL keeps ramping up shipping. No sign that ASICMINER is slowing their deployment either. The ASIC wave is still building!

There should be a small slow down trend when GPUs disconnect. Mine are switched off since 2~3 weeks. Perhaps actually around 50 TH/s are due to GPUs still working.

Yes, that is probably true. But this is a gradual process, if people have good information and know how efficient their GPUs are. ASICs coming online will likely replace that 50 TH/s rate fairly quickly.

[Amph]

and 33% decrease in difficulty needs time, to do a re target, in that time those 50tera will be replaced by asic, easily

[larem]

and 33% decrease in difficulty needs time, to do a re target, in that time those 50tera will be replaced by asic, easily

That's what I'm thinking. Even if the difficulty DID drop, it would rise back up again pretty quick. Many people are just now (or soon) hitting the point where it's no longer profitable. So if difficulty drops down, those will hop right back on the train and push it back up again.

[zvs]

and 33% decrease in difficulty needs time, to do a re target, in that time those 50tera will be replaced by asic, easily

That's what I'm thinking. Even if the difficulty DID drop, it would rise back up again pretty quick. Many people are just now (or soon) hitting the point where it's no longer profitable. So if difficulty drops down, those will hop right back on the train and push it back up again.

yeah, it'll flatten out for the first day or so as people with gpus switch them off.  then it'll jump back up again, as all these blade thingamajigs and whatever else comes online that people are throwing their money at

this obv doesnt include the avalon asic round 2 ppl, that got it for, what, $1000?  i overslept that day, damnit

[larem]

and 33% decrease in difficulty needs time, to do a re target, in that time those 50tera will be replaced by asic, easily

That's what I'm thinking. Even if the difficulty DID drop, it would rise back up again pretty quick. Many people are just now (or soon) hitting the point where it's no longer profitable. So if difficulty drops down, those will hop right back on the train and push it back up again.

yeah, it'll flatten out for the first day or so as people with gpus switch them off.  then it'll jump back up again, as all these blade thingamajigs and whatever else comes online that people are throwing their money at

this obv doesnt include the avalon asic round 2 ppl, that got it for, what, $1000?  i overslept that day, damnit

I've been pretty scared to jump on asics in general, just because look at how it's been... you buy and wait 1+ years to get your purchase? Even with them shipping now, I can still see there being a 1+ year wait for those who order now.

[Pinwheel]

You are right of course.
But i think the truly massive rises may be behind us.

Oh, the massive rise is just getting started.

that is closer to reality. 400 ths Bitfury, batch 3 avalon, 600 ths avalon chips sold.  10pts by end of the year. Before that still can be OK for avalons and asicminer, but question is who will pass 10pts, BitFury will pass, BFL perhaps too. By that time we may get new ASICminer chips which will be on same level with BitFury or even better. In any situation there will be some solution, nobody going to stop mining. Brutal yeah, but doible.

[naRky]

Dont bother with difficulty guys.

Its very simple.

3600BTC/day global

so for example now i have 1GHs unit and global hash rate is 100THs

100……..3600
0.001…….x

x=0.001*3600/100

x=0.036BTC/day

So if the hash rate will be 1000THs in september and i will receive Jupiter from KnC on time it will be like this:

1000…….3600
0.350…….x

x=1.26BTC/day


Dont speculate about difficulty its not important, the number of units in network is not important.

The only important think is your H/s and global H/s nothing else !!!!!!

Its easier to predict the global hash rate than difficulty. Predicting difficulty is wasting of time.

[Soros Shorts]

Its easier to predict the global hash rate than difficulty. Predicting difficulty is wasting of time.

Huh? The relationship between the two is very simple.

Global Hash Rate = 7,158,388 * Difficulty

[FloridaBear]

Its easier to predict the global hash rate than difficulty. Predicting difficulty is wasting of time.

Huh? The relationship between the two is very simple.

Global Hash Rate = 7,158,388 * Difficulty

Exactly. There is no difference between predicting difficulty and predicting hash rate.

[lazydna]

this drop or leveling off of net hash is because ASICminer seems to be having some problems with their machines and have cut their output to 20Theta and still falling. I don't expect them to be turning off their machines unless something really fucked up happened to them.

http://www.asicminercharts.com/

[Professor James Moriarty]

 I am guessing this 19 million thingy will stop here for another while? How long until we see 20 million+? so whens the next jump I started out on this march madness and was 9 million or so , now 19 million I think I was a 'wee' bit late

[MooC Tals]

June 13 2013

June 20 2013

I am guessing here but most large pools will lose more GPU's in the coming weeks as their luck in finding blocks dwindle. Bitminter has been a steady 13 THs for a bit of time and from the two screen shots we can see the decline. June 13 there were 10 with over 100,000 Mhs and now only 2 remain.



Asic miners going Solo mining and trying their luck at being the sole winners of the reward. I think this will back fire for most and they will join pools again by the next difficulty. Very interesting watching this all happen.

[batman, not crabman]

Dont bother with difficulty guys.

Its very simple.

3600BTC/day global

so for example now i have 1GHs unit and global hash rate is 100THs

100……..3600
0.001…….x

x=0.001*3600/100

x=0.036BTC/day

So if the hash rate will be 1000THs in september and i will receive Jupiter from KnC on time it will be like this:

1000…….3600
0.350…….x

x=1.26BTC/day


Dont speculate about difficulty its not important, the number of units in network is not important.

The only important think is your H/s and global H/s nothing else !!!!!!

Its easier to predict the global hash rate than difficulty. Predicting difficulty is wasting of time.

This isn't technically true - if the network has rate doubles before the next difficulty readjustment block then you'll see ~7000 BTC/day.  As it stands difficulty seems to be lagging a fair bit behind so we're likely getting ~400 BTC/day on average.
Let me know if I'm wrong here.

[andrewsg]

This isn't technically true - if the network has rate doubles before the next difficulty readjustment block then you'll see ~7000 BTC/day.  As it stands difficulty seems to be lagging a fair bit behind so we're likely getting ~400 BTC/day on average.
Let me know if I'm wrong here.

You are right about the mechanic, if the hash rate goes up significantly after a retarget, then until the next retarget bitcoins will be generated at a rate faster than 3600/day. That was the case for the last 2 retargets, but at the moment that is not the case for the current period, over the past 24 hours blocks have been generated every 9min45sec on average, that's very close to the "intended" rate.

[Phoenix3333]

It would appear Avalon stopped new orders on units...maybe BFL should stop also?

With the climbing difficulty there comes a point that the cost of a BLF unit will never be returned to a miner even at very high BTC rates.

That point is fast approaching if not here now.

Because of climbing difficulty in 8 months a 50 Gh single will not even produce enough BTC to cover the cost of electric and therefore be near worthless with little to no resale value.

By massive production of hash rate introduced to the public it appears the hardware producers (all of the asics producers) have manufactured their own obsolescence.

Thoughts?