The higher the rise, the bigger the plunge (btc vs alts)

[nhote]

i mentioned in another post (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2215533.msg22349089#msg22349089) that we'd see BTC approaching 6,000$ by mid october - apparently i wasn't so wrong. but i agree that there'll be major pullbacks. BTG is a joke fork with light atmosphere around it and people just seeing the opportunity for free money. Segwitx2 is wholly different. it is highly contentious and will probably bring lots of FUD. i expect BTC to drop more dramatically than 4,500$ before that, perhaps even back down to 3,000$. i think only part of the money will stay with solid alts. most of it will probably go in tether and especially fiat. however, IF the fork will be successful and the community will manage to consensually handle its aftermath, then we may really have Lambo times ahead for our alts - something like last spring, i would hope. but it remains a very big IF atm.

...we all know that making any predictions in crypto is a bit like trying to see the future through astrology, but this is where i stand now...

I agree 100%

thanks. i've also come across some of your other posts advocating first NEO and now SNM, and it really seems that we share quite a few opinions on crypto

Yeah I'm really active on this website, I'm actually making the transition to full time trader so the more threads I follow, the more I'm forced to learn, the better I'll trade. Happy trading friend!

thanks mate. happy trading to you and best luck with your transition - i suspect we'll cross paths a few times in the future   

[nhote]

With Bitcoin rising so fast and the alts losing so much due to a number of factors (bitcoingold and upcoming segwitx2, among others), I can't help but wonder WHEN it'll all come crashing back down. Obviously the alts are in a perfect accumulation state (already doubled my holdings of most alts including SONM), so I'm really not too worried about it, but this is a rise that cannot sustain itself.

My guess is by the end of october bitcoin will have dropped back from 6K to about 4.5K, which means about 20-25 billion dollars will flow out of the market, and some will flow right back into the cheap yet durable alts like NEO, SONM, ETH, LTC, ...

What do you guys think?

Today I decided to do a little slap with 35% of my BTC holdings with BTC-ALTs-BTC when bitcoin price fall again and ETH-LTC-DASH stays at the same level.

I think ETH is under-priced with this 300 range and BTC higher than 5300.

Hopefully this is the right decision...

i'm also betting on ETH showing some interesting growth in the coming weeks, after a stagnating period and hopefully a successful fork... we'll see!

[BMG86]

Agree. This recent rise to $5.3K is too fast. We went from flash crash $2.9K to $5.3K bull run within a month (15 Sept to 13 Oct). Like you said, there must be a correction coming soon before we going any higher. It almost felt like a bubble now.

About where all that money will go, I don't think it will pour into altcoin either All that money are too big for altcoin market right now. What kind of technology does altcoin have? There haven't many developments in the altcoin scene these recent months, probably because people are busy making all kinds of ICO.

There will be another correction, there always is. Just remember how fast bitcoin went up when it crashed from $2500 to $1800, once it fell to $1800 it quickly jumped to over $3k and then shortly after to over $4k and soon almost $5k before crashing back down to $2800. So Im thinking we may see it come close to touching $7k before taking a correction. Once it touches close to $7k, I'm thinking it will crash back down to $4500 while stabilzing in the $5500-$6000 range. But who really knows, this is only my prediction based on what we've seen in the past. Either way, if this pace continues with bitcoin, we may easily see $10,000 within the next 6 months.

[MiBambino]

Agree. This recent rise to $5.3K is too fast. We went from flash crash $2.9K to $5.3K bull run within a month (15 Sept to 13 Oct). Like you said, there must be a correction coming soon before we going any higher. It almost felt like a bubble now.

About where all that money will go, I don't think it will pour into altcoin either All that money are too big for altcoin market right now. What kind of technology does altcoin have? There haven't many developments in the altcoin scene these recent months, probably because people are busy making all kinds of ICO.

There will be another correction, there always is. Just remember how fast bitcoin went up when it crashed from $2500 to $1800, once it fell to $1800 it quickly jumped to over $3k and then shortly after to over $4k and soon almost $5k before crashing back down to $2800. So Im thinking we may see it come close to touching $7k before taking a correction. Once it touches close to $7k, I'm thinking it will crash back down to $4500 while stabilzing in the $5500-$6000 range. But who really knows, this is only my prediction based on what we've seen in the past. Either way, if this pace continues with bitcoin, we may easily see $10,000 within the next 6 months.

I agree, well put

[Samarkand]

...

i'm also betting on ETH showing some interesting growth in the coming weeks, after a stagnating period and hopefully a successful fork... we'll see!

I´d strongly advise against doing this!

ETH´s upside is severely limited by all the ICOs. If ETH gains a few % ICOs sell
a part of their raised ETH. There is no way ETH is going to increase substantially while
all these ICOs are interested in cashing out from ETH.

Bitcoin´s recent surge isn´t helping either, because many people realize that Bitcoin
is preferable to all the altcoins.

[shintosai]

...

i'm also betting on ETH showing some interesting growth in the coming weeks, after a stagnating period and hopefully a successful fork... we'll see!

I´d strongly advise against doing this!

ETH´s upside is severely limited by all the ICOs. If ETH gains a few % ICOs sell
a part of their raised ETH. There is no way ETH is going to increase substantially while
all these ICOs are interested in cashing out from ETH.

Bitcoin´s recent surge isn´t helping either, because many people realize that Bitcoin
is preferable to all the altcoins.

Will all depends on how the current things ends up bitcoin still on its way to reach much bigger value while alts are struggling and even good and quality projects are affected too much, ETH will make its move after some corrections happen again with btc price.

[littlebill16]

There has to be some sort of correction with the btc price because it has now gone from just under 3k to nearly 6k in around a months time. The hope for alts is that when bitcoin inevitably hits a stumbling point that the money flows in to alts instead of out of cryptos all together.

[BitcoinHodler]

With Bitcoin rising so fast and the alts losing so much due to a number of factors (bitcoingold and upcoming segwitx2, among others), I can't help but wonder WHEN it'll all come crashing back down.

it is IF it comes down. you know that not everything that goes up, comes down. you can see bitcoin and all the topics that have been posted by many users like you who said "when will it come down" but as you can see, it is still rising.
don't confuse bitcoin's correction with coming down and also don't confuse the pumps that altcoins have with bitcoin's rally.

Obviously the alts are in a perfect accumulation state (already doubled my holdings of most alts including SONM), so I'm really not too worried about it, but this is a rise that cannot sustain itself.

NOT YET.

i think it is too soon to start buying altcions because not only they have not stopped but also they have not even showed the first signs of slowing down. the drop is in its starting phase.

My guess is by the end of october bitcoin will have dropped back from 6K to about 4.5K, which means about 20-25 billion dollars will flow out of the market, and some will flow right back into the cheap yet durable alts like NEO, SONM, ETH, LTC, ...

What do you guys think?

first it has to go to $6000, and it depends on how it will get there. if it is the current trend and if 6k is reached in a short time (like in a week) then obviously it will fall.
if it takes a longer time with some corrections on the way up, the drop will become less and less likely and smaller correction only.

also remember than not all the money goes back to altcoins. many will go back to fiat.
that doesn't mean alts won't come back though.

[MiBambino]

With Bitcoin rising so fast and the alts losing so much due to a number of factors (bitcoingold and upcoming segwitx2, among others), I can't help but wonder WHEN it'll all come crashing back down.

it is IF it comes down. you know that not everything that goes up, comes down. you can see bitcoin and all the topics that have been posted by many users like you who said "when will it come down" but as you can see, it is still rising.
don't confuse bitcoin's correction with coming down and also don't confuse the pumps that altcoins have with bitcoin's rally.

Obviously the alts are in a perfect accumulation state (already doubled my holdings of most alts including SONM), so I'm really not too worried about it, but this is a rise that cannot sustain itself.

NOT YET.

i think it is too soon to start buying altcions because not only they have not stopped but also they have not even showed the first signs of slowing down. the drop is in its starting phase.

My guess is by the end of october bitcoin will have dropped back from 6K to about 4.5K, which means about 20-25 billion dollars will flow out of the market, and some will flow right back into the cheap yet durable alts like NEO, SONM, ETH, LTC, ...

What do you guys think?

first it has to go to $6000, and it depends on how it will get there. if it is the current trend and if 6k is reached in a short time (like in a week) then obviously it will fall.
if it takes a longer time with some corrections on the way up, the drop will become less and less likely and smaller correction only.

also remember than not all the money goes back to altcoins. many will go back to fiat.
that doesn't mean alts won't come back though.

History always repeats itself, because people suddenly aren't going to become rational investors and leave their emotions aside. As soon as bitcoin starts falling, people will panic sell, and sell orders will be filled as well. The alts will rise because that's happened time after time again. People expect it, so it'll be a self fulfilling prophecy.
Either way, none of us can predict the future, we'll see.

Happy trading!

[el kaka22]

History always repeats itself, because people suddenly aren't going to become rational investors and leave their emotions aside. As soon as bitcoin starts falling, people will panic sell, and sell orders will be filled as well. The alts will rise because that's happened time after time again. People expect it, so it'll be a self fulfilling prophecy.
Either way, none of us can predict the future, we'll see.

Happy trading!

Digital market is a volatile one and yeah past has a good way of reflecting but don't you think so people are getting aware of the fact that after every dump in the price of bitcoin, its value skyrockets and now people will be more careful during the dip.

They won't repeat their past mistakes. At least some of them will not do panic selling out. Investors trust bitcoin now more than ever.

[nhote]

...

i'm also betting on ETH showing some interesting growth in the coming weeks, after a stagnating period and hopefully a successful fork... we'll see!

I´d strongly advise against doing this!

ETH´s upside is severely limited by all the ICOs. If ETH gains a few % ICOs sell
a part of their raised ETH. There is no way ETH is going to increase substantially while
all these ICOs are interested in cashing out from ETH.

Bitcoin´s recent surge isn´t helping either, because many people realize that Bitcoin
is preferable to all the altcoins.

thanks for the advice. you may have a point, of course, but i remain highly bullish on ETH in the short term. if the Segwitx2 fork will happen, it will probably be contentious, and many big investors may see ETH as a way to hedge their position in BTC away from FUD, sustaining ETH's price. that's at least my bet. as to the mid- to long-term, too many unknown variables to hazard forecasts - you might be right but it might also be taht ICOs will end up bringing extra value to ETH once regulated somehow... we''ll see.

[Idrisu]

With Bitcoin rising so fast and the alts losing so much due to a number of factors (bitcoingold and upcoming segwitx2, among others), I can't help but wonder WHEN it'll all come crashing back down. Obviously the alts are in a perfect accumulation state (already doubled my holdings of most alts including SONM), so I'm really not too worried about it, but this is a rise that cannot sustain itself.

My guess is by the end of october bitcoin will have dropped back from 6K to about 4.5K, which means about 20-25 billion dollars will flow out of the market, and some will flow right back into the cheap yet durable alts like NEO, SONM, ETH, LTC, ...

What do you guys think?

This your speculation may happen but I don't think bitcoin is going to dump to as low as $4500. I doubt if we would get to that level before end of this year. However, funds are going to flow back into alternative coins market from fiat and bitcoin market as many traders will definitely take profits from the recent up rising of bitcoin price. Sigwit2x activation and all the hardfork issues are going to push bitcoin price up like it happened during the last one in August this year. Moreso, we may experience both bitcoin and altcoins market getting pump as it happened after first of August splitting.

[djsugar]

With Bitcoin rising so fast and the alts losing so much due to a number of factors (bitcoingold and upcoming segwitx2, among others), I can't help but wonder WHEN it'll all come crashing back down. Obviously the alts are in a perfect accumulation state (already doubled my holdings of most alts including SONM), so I'm really not too worried about it, but this is a rise that cannot sustain itself.

My guess is by the end of october bitcoin will have dropped back from 6K to about 4.5K, which means about 20-25 billion dollars will flow out of the market, and some will flow right back into the cheap yet durable alts like NEO, SONM, ETH, LTC, ...

What do you guys think?

This is likely an outcome. Alts are at the best available price to increase holding and to diversify the portfolio with the best potential coins. Even I have bought a lot in recent some days. Bitcoin will definitely gonna have a correction that too most likely to be after fork when everybody would have claimed their BTG. Otherwise a bubble might build up. A correction is always needed after a ridiculous price increase of an asset which is running on demand. But even before BTC price correction, alts will start appreciating as buying activity has already increased.

[MiBambino]

With Bitcoin rising so fast and the alts losing so much due to a number of factors (bitcoingold and upcoming segwitx2, among others), I can't help but wonder WHEN it'll all come crashing back down. Obviously the alts are in a perfect accumulation state (already doubled my holdings of most alts including SONM), so I'm really not too worried about it, but this is a rise that cannot sustain itself.

My guess is by the end of october bitcoin will have dropped back from 6K to about 4.5K, which means about 20-25 billion dollars will flow out of the market, and some will flow right back into the cheap yet durable alts like NEO, SONM, ETH, LTC, ...

What do you guys think?

This your speculation may happen but I don't think bitcoin is going to dump to as low as $4500. I doubt if we would get to that level before end of this year. However, funds are going to flow back into alternative coins market from fiat and bitcoin market as many traders will definitely take profits from the recent up rising of bitcoin price. Sigwit2x activation and all the hardfork issues are going to push bitcoin price up like it happened during the last one in August this year. Moreso, we may experience both bitcoin and altcoins market getting pump as it happened after first of August splitting.

Depends on where it goes before the dip. It usually loses about 30% after an insane rally like this one

[burdeN]

You don't need to be a genius to predict that BTC will face a correction, it's pretty natural. It's price rose due to money flow from alts to btc. And once the majority of such investors take their profits, they will sell their btc, and move back to altcoins or even fiat, then we will see a correction to support level

[streazight]

But I think Bitcoin has started a new upward cycle that will bring it well over $ 6,000; in my opinion, it will grow for this whole month of October and until mid-November, when the next segwit2x fork will approach.
I believe that in those days Bitcoin can do intraday tricks up to $ 8,000-9,000, then go down violently as you say, and maybe go to touch the old ATH at $ 5,000 that he just broke right now.

If you look even in the past, after the big growths, when bitcoin collapses it drops by at least 40%. The $ 8,000-9,000 range with a 40% drop just goes up to the $ 5,000 of the old ATH.

In any case, it will be an interesting month, and perhaps a blood bath for Alt 

It's hard to say how bitcoin will go this time. There's no way to know really. This could be the top, or $7000 could be it, hell even $10000.

But what seems rather clear is that sooner or later, the cycle will end and then alts will rise again. I don't believe this is the end of altcoins as we know them. Maybe eventually most alts will die, but I think after BTC takes a break, alts will rise again an those that bought the right one when they were really low, will make pretty sweet gains.

The cycle will most definitely end. August fork came with its own huge dips and immediately after the fork and some few days passed, we started noticing some good turn for most of the altcoin. However, this plunge this time around was huge due to the huge bullish stunts btc pulled with the high percentage run. One thing I know for sure is that the market as a whole is really getting big.

[MiBambino]

History always repeats itself, because people suddenly aren't going to become rational investors and leave their emotions aside. As soon as bitcoin starts falling, people will panic sell, and sell orders will be filled as well. The alts will rise because that's happened time after time again. People expect it, so it'll be a self fulfilling prophecy.
Either way, none of us can predict the future, we'll see.

Happy trading!

Digital market is a volatile one and yeah past has a good way of reflecting but don't you think so people are getting aware of the fact that after every dump in the price of bitcoin, its value skyrockets and now people will be more careful during the dip.

They won't repeat their past mistakes. At least some of them will not do panic selling out. Investors trust bitcoin now more than ever.

Old investors might not make the same mistakes, but new investors will. Also, the whales will cash out billions when bitcoin hits 6K, and they'll buy the alts that are so damn low right now to make even more billions in a matter of weeks. That's the way it's always been, and there really isn't an easier way to double or triple your money in a very short period of time

[thepo1m]

I don't think Bitcoin price will plunge, altcoin will only need to go and meet Bitcoin at the top, there are some prjection that by March 2018, Bitcoin will be at $10k

[MiBambino]

I don't think Bitcoin price will plunge, altcoin will only need to go and meet Bitcoin at the top, there are some prjection that by March 2018, Bitcoin will be at $10k

By march 2018 that may be right, but before it goes there it'll drop, it has always done that, and it will keep doing that

[Armstand]

I don't think Bitcoin price will plunge, altcoin will only need to go and meet Bitcoin at the top, there are some prjection that by March 2018, Bitcoin will be at $10k

By march 2018 that may be right, but before it goes there it'll drop, it has always done that, and it will keep doing that

Every pump have a corresponding dump, what we don't know is up to what amount and when will it occur, so always have a backup plan and backup cash too sinace it will be long ride.