Bitcoin $250000 by 2020 if the seven year trend continues

[PortoDark]

Bitcoin is sound money, and we've got some zeros until fiat is replaced. After that the effects will be much more drastic than industrial revolution, and economy, thus bitcoin value, will still continue growing at a fast pace.

Those who believe in a roof don't see the economic truth of sound money.

Fiat is a lie, it can't last forever.

[1714862838]

1714862838

[Lucius]

It would be really wonderful that something like this happens because there would be a lot of people who will become rich if they have 1 BTC or even less depending in which part of world they live.Considering nature of BTC I would never say that even this prediction is impossible by 2020,but I would be more moderate in such prediction.Can price of BTC go up around 80k $ per year to achieve such a prognosis?It is very difficult in the opinion of many users surely.If demand stay high and we see positive movements in next years,maybe after seven years and two more halving we can expect something close to this price.

[Fuhre]

I agree with most replies. That price seems virtually impossible, but I think the main problem here is that it only takes maths into account and not what could happen in the real world. Bans, regulation, mass adoption, forks, alts gaining dominance... there are so many events that can affect price that to take only maths into account is like building castles in the air.

Obviously not possible, what does OP think about 2020 bitcoin prices reach $ 250,000? Where does this data come from? 2014 we have seen a very significant decline, will not forever continue to grow. This is one of the definite laws. If you experience a soaring surge there will be a very big decline as well, if prices continue to increase, chances are people will completely switch to earn bitcoin. Obviously this will cause a very bad effect in the world of cryptocurrency, well you are right this is like building a castle in the air.

[maku]

Some of my thoughts:
1. While I am aware that bitcoin price won't be rising indefinitely, I am also sure that current value is not the final.
2. We will see higher price in the future - the only minor problem is the right assessment of price trends.
3. Using purely mathematical formulas to extrapolate the ultimate future bitcoin price is kinda too random for me.
4. Some of really well-known investors seem to share this idea of crazy high bitcoin price - i.e John McAfee.

[omonuyak]

BitGo Software Engineer Jameson Lopp revealed that if the seven-year trend of Bitcoin price continues, Bitcoin will be valued at around $250,000 by 2020.

Lopp calculated the seven-year trend of Bitcoin price based on daily value change. With the exception of 2014, which was affected by the downfall of now-defunct Mt. Gox, Bitcoin has continuously recorded positive daily value change since 2010.

Bitcoin average DAILY value change:
2010: +0.82%
2011: +0.76%
2012: +0.26%
2013: +1.11%
2014: -0.25%
2015: +0.09%
2016: +0.22%
2017: +0.66%

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-will-hit-250000-by-2020-if-seven-year-trend-continues

I have also try to analyze bitcoin price movement in this way and using this year as my area of focus, I find out that bitcoin double in price every quarter through out this year and if this continue then I expect bitcoin to be more than  $250,000 by 2020. We have has significant price movement this year alone and I believe 2018 will show us more significant improvement and we would keep moving up until price get to $500,000.

[warrior333]

Of course it won't keep rising exponentially forever. But what I don't get, is how many of you deem $250.000 to be impossible. That would only equal a market cap of roughly $4.6 trillion; gold sits at $8.2 trillion, all stock markets $66.8 trillion.

If someone told you it was going to be worth $6000 when it was at $0.05, wouldn't that have sounded equally "impossible"? $250.000 by 2020 is very possible once mass adoption happens and the big guys (wall street, major banks, etc) enter the market.

The big guys know how to make only Fiat. Due to the fact that the current financial system is completely controlled by the rich. Governments always act in their best interests. agree easier to play cards if you know of an opponent. When they make predictions about cryptocurrency I don't trust them. Bitcoin lives his life and no one can predict his behavior in the future.

[Kimi80]

It sound pretty good. I don`t believe in such an exotic predictions. I do believe that the value of bitcoin is going to raise in the years to come but 250 000$... I can`t remember that we had , in our history as society, similar situation that gave people opportunity to make a fortune practically out of nothing. You just need to buy a bitcoin and wait for two years to pass and `voila`, here comes the cash...

[Omega Weapon]

BitGo Software Engineer Jameson Lopp revealed that if the seven-year trend of Bitcoin price continues, Bitcoin will be valued at around $250,000 by 2020.

Lopp calculated the seven-year trend of Bitcoin price based on daily value change. With the exception of 2014, which was affected by the downfall of now-defunct Mt. Gox, Bitcoin has continuously recorded positive daily value change since 2010.

Bitcoin average DAILY value change:
2010: +0.82%
2011: +0.76%
2012: +0.26%
2013: +1.11%
2014: -0.25%
2015: +0.09%
2016: +0.22%
2017: +0.66%

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-will-hit-250000-by-2020-if-seven-year-trend-continues

The math make seems like it makes sense, but when applied to the real world where there are limitations such as political pressure, adoption, altcoins competing with bitcoin and fiat currencies competing with bitcoin then it is very easy to see that the math does not make sense, I would say that even reaching 10% of that is going to be almost impossible in that time frame.

[Kyraishi]

This is probably not going to happen. The growth that we have seen have all come from an inflood of new investors - the percentage increase of which probably will not stay up to current levels or as high a level as currently.

I'd say that 2020, we may see $15-20k per bitcoin but $250000 is quite ridiculous.

BTC will take  abreak before jumping back up again.

[Orielres]

Just look at 2014  and remember that could be 2018

We have much more user than that in 2013 and remember the network effect.

[nl247]

It sound pretty good. I don`t believe in such an exotic predictions. I do believe that the value of bitcoin is going to raise in the years to come but 250 000$... I can`t remember that we had , in our history as society, similar situation that gave people opportunity to make a fortune practically out of nothing. You just need to buy a bitcoin and wait for two years to pass and `voila`, here comes the cash...

It surely sounds pretty good but realistic is what I am not sure of. Sure, no one can really give what happens next and we can just keep being optimistic. However, at the pace that bitcoin is going, anything can be possible by 2020. It is just a very long year to predict and surely a very high amount to expect, but which ever way, we just have to keep our fingers crossed.

[Denker]

Almost 80% of all bitcoins have been mined. 20% left for distribution until year 2140.
Adoption has barely started. We are still pretty early, if some want to believe that or not.
Therefore exponential growth in terms of price will keep going for quite some time, with corrections within that.
I don't know if $250k is possible until 2020 but I think it's indeed just a question of time until it happens.
Of course as long as no other Mt.Gox like drama happens.
Furthermore you can be sure there will be forces trying to slow down the growth as much as possible and distraction and manipulation to get your coins will continue to happen!!

[Phil_S]

3x every year (or 10x every two years) increase is roughly a long-term multi-year trend, so far.

5900*3*3*3= 160k

But to avoid disappointment, I wouldn't hope for more than 2x every year.

5900*2*2*2= 47k

That's would be enough for me to retire in 2020 (or maybe 2021).
It could go flat at 50k, I don't mind.

[ragnar0k]

So...Set aside 2014, the lowest growth year would easily outpace most nasdaq longs (even a 0.09% daily growth is 33% yearly...during a bearish period!)
I think most investors would be very happy to long with a 0.22% daily growth

[Lucius]

Almost 80% of all bitcoins have been mined. 20% left for distribution until year 2140.
Adoption has barely started. We are still pretty early, if some want to believe that or not.
Therefore exponential growth in terms of price will keep going for quite some time, with corrections within that.
I don't know if $250k is possible until 2020 but I think it's indeed just a question of time until it happens.
Of course as long as no other Mt.Gox like drama happens.
Furthermore you can be sure there will be forces trying to slow down the growth as much as possible and distraction and manipulation to get your coins will continue to happen!!

It may be worth mentioning that from that 20% which remained to be mined today only 1% or little more will remain around year 2032 and with 4 halving
until that time things will become very interesting.I agree that BTC actually in its early stages,as a child of 7-8 years old who is still learning and developing,much remains ahead of him to become strong and successful.Just like every child needs direction and attention,BTC also need support from developers and community.This 250k $ goal is likely to be achieved in next 7-15 years.

[acquafredda]

For Bitcoin to reach that price it would need a greater mass adoption where all millionaires are left behind with no coins. With such liquidity those prices are attainable.

[rodalutor]

For those trends to continue for another 5 years would mean a lot for bitcoin, it is safe to assume it would require mass adoption and acceptance almost globally, not to say it can't happen, just that it is unlikely to happen.

[Baofeng]

If we continue this phase, then its likely to get to this price in the next 3 years. But can it be done? There are lot of factors that we need like mass adoption, no negative news, people demanding more and others. But can all this factors works on our way? There will come a time that growth will suddenly hit a blank wall. So as much as I'm very bullish about the market, but the prediction can't be reached by 2020. Its not always parabolic and there will be a lot of challenges and setbacks that will pull the price at certain point in time.

[Gotomoon]

For those trends to continue for another 5 years would mean a lot for bitcoin, it is safe to assume it would require mass adoption and acceptance almost globally, not to say it can't happen, just that it is unlikely to happen.

Probably this would possibly happen if and if bitcoin would continue to grow to increase. But I couldnt see it will happen after 2 years. And ofcourse we could assume if there will be massive huge adoption so more likely we could see bitcoin price increase than the current.

[Denker]

Almost 80% of all bitcoins have been mined. 20% left for distribution until year 2140.
Adoption has barely started. We are still pretty early, if some want to believe that or not.
Therefore exponential growth in terms of price will keep going for quite some time, with corrections within that.
I don't know if $250k is possible until 2020 but I think it's indeed just a question of time until it happens.
Of course as long as no other Mt.Gox like drama happens.
Furthermore you can be sure there will be forces trying to slow down the growth as much as possible and distraction and manipulation to get your coins will continue to happen!!

It may be worth mentioning that from that 20% which remained to be mined today only 1% or little more will remain around year 2032 and with 4 halving
until that time things will become very interesting.I agree that BTC actually in its early stages,as a child of 7-8 years old who is still learning and developing,much remains ahead of him to become strong and successful.Just like every child needs direction and attention,BTC also need support from developers and community.This 250k $ goal is likely to be achieved in next 7-15 years.

You're right. Thanks to be even more specific in terms of the distribution phase.
Let's see how it plays out after next halving 2020. And I'm sure if Bitcoin keeps progressing as it does now and has done the last years, even the most talented devs will be highly interested working on something Bitcoin related.
In terms of price 6-12 months after next halving and then past 2024 could be become very interesting!
As Simon Dixon said recently in one of his last interviews: "Some call that a bubble, I call that growth! Growth on an exponential scale!"