Looks more and more like a 2011 repeat

[Inedible]

Perhaps someone should start a sweepstake for the date of the next bubble to pop 

[viboracecata]

I think the main stream of selling bitcoins are those miners, since the mining rig now is so high priced, the price of bitcoin will not be too low, maybe 100 dollars is proper.

Or else those miner will cry

[Rampion]

I think the main stream of selling bitcoins are those miners, since the mining rig now is so high priced, the price of bitcoin will not be too low, maybe 100 dollars is proper.

Or else those miner will cry

Miners will cry very very soon, as they have always been crying. More hash rate is added to the network until mining is only marginally profitable, and the guys paying expensive electricity have no other choice than turning off their rigs, which happened at the end of 2011 and in 2012, and is happening now to all those that have no asic.

We just had a very short time window in which mining with an asic was wildly profitable: that window is closing right now.

[N12]

I think the main stream of selling bitcoins are those miners, since the mining rig now is so high priced, the price of bitcoin will not be too low, maybe 100 dollars is proper.

Or else those miner will cry

Miners will cry very very soon, as they have always been crying. More hash rate is added to the network until mining is only marginally profitable, and the guys paying expensive electricity have no other choice than turning off their rigs, which happened at the end of 2011 and in 2012, and is happening now to all those that have no asic.

We just had a very short time window in which mining with an asic was wildly profitable: that window is closing right now.

Yes. People don't understand that that is the normal state of things. The miners should never be excessively profitable for longer periods of time, it's already distorted enough because of the delivery shortage of ASICs. The job of miners is to supply the market with most of the 3600 BTC daily and pocket a small profit, not to hold 80% and become speculators.

[Frizz23]

That is a good news, it means 2015 it will touch 2000

I highly doubt that.

Look at Google Trends:


In spring of 2013 Bitcoin was everywhere in the Mainstream Media (e.g. because of the Euro crisis). What do you think comes next? The Intergalactic Media?


It seems like people are losing interest in Bitcoin. You can also see this in the trade volume on the exchanges:



This, and the big an small scandals & scams around Bitcoin (exchanges down (Vircurex, Cryptsy, Bter, btc-e), MtGox stopped USD withdrawals, aurumxchange closed, banks (Citi & Chase) no longer processing Bitcoin related transactions, shady ASIC companies (mining with customer hardware), etc.) will slowly kill Bitcoin.

[Its About Sharing]

That is a good news, it means 2015 it will touch 2000

I highly doubt that.

Look at Google Trends:


In spring of 2013 Bitcoin was everywhere in the Mainstream Media (e.g. because of the Euro crisis). What do you think comes next? The Intergalactic Media?


It seems like people are losing interest in Bitcoin. You can also see this in the trade volume on the exchanges:



This, and the big an small scandals & scams around Bitcoin (exchanges down (Vircurex, Cryptsy, Bter, btc-e), MtGox stopped USD withdrawals, aurumxchange closed, banks (Citi & Chase) no longer processing Bitcoin related transactions, shady ASIC companies (mining with customer hardware), etc.) will slowly kill Bitcoin.

I am expecting BTC's price to come down, perhaps largely so. But I think it is a huge jump to say "slowly kill Bitcoin". Yes, the banking system (corrupt one) wants it gone as they make wars, control people via usery, etc. with their system. But as things get more decentralized we should slowly come out on top. But it will be violent (in a volatile way...)

[Rampion]

That is a good news, it means 2015 it will touch 2000

I highly doubt that.

Look at Google Trends:


In spring of 2013 Bitcoin was everywhere in the Mainstream Media (e.g. because of the Euro crisis). What do you think comes next? The Intergalactic Media?


It seems like people are losing interest in Bitcoin. You can also see this in the trade volume on the exchanges:



This, and the big an small scandals & scams around Bitcoin (exchanges down (Vircurex, Cryptsy, Bter, btc-e), MtGox stopped USD withdrawals, aurumxchange closed, banks (Citi & Chase) no longer processing Bitcoin related transactions, shady ASIC companies (mining with customer hardware), etc.) will slowly kill Bitcoin.

You forget that apart from media exposure there is a fundamental factor that need to improve for wider adoption: infrastructure. It's true that a massive % of the world population was exposed to Bitcoin recently, but 99% of them didn't have a clue about how to quickly enter the market. Buying your first bitcoins is an adventure, first you have to understand how Bitcoin works, then you start throwing a little money to it to understand how to handle the coins, and when you finally decide to invest significant money in it months has already passed. The fact is that there are only a few, very shitty exchanges, with obscure validation policies. The infrastructure is shaky, Bitcoin exchanges has a very poor history in terms of reliability, the % of them that just vanishes is astoundingly high.

While its obvious that we recently had a massive hype cycle, the infrastructure is not good enough for massive, quick adoption. If the infrastructure improves, with less media exposure you will have bigger players (=more money) entering the market, and that's crucial to reach further heights.

TL;DR -> there's still a huge margin for growth, regardless of what google trends say.

[dnaleor]

google searches are not that important. What we need to check is the number of activity in the community.
Therefore, I created this chart:



We see a strong correlation between the activity on bitcointalk and the price of bitcoin.
The number mem new nembers and posts is very important. And we see that they are still high compared to 'pre bubble' period.

logarithmic version:

[Rampion]

google searches are not that important. What we need to check is the number of activity in the community.

Nice chart, but can you explain WHY google searches are "not that important", and WHY what we need to check is the activity in this community?

[dnaleor]

google searches are not that important. What we need to check is the number of activity in the community.

Nice chart, but can you explain WHY google searches are "not that important", and WHY what we need to check is the activity in this community?

google measures the hype; bitcointalk stats measures community activity.

[Frizz23]

google measures the hype; bitcointalk stats measures community activity.

Exactly. And this means the hype is gone.

It will take years before Bitcoin will see 200$ again. If at all.

[Frizz23]

But as things get more decentralized we should slowly come out on top.

Decentralized? With all the ASICS the network is getting more and more centralized.

ASICMiner alone currently holds 24% of the network hashing power!

For the idea of Bitcoin it would have been best if only CPU mining would be possible. No GPUs. No ASICs.

[Kupsi]

Look at Google Trends:

Google Trends is not bad at all. You need to compare it to last year, not only april.

"bitcoin"




"buy bitcoins"

[BitcoinAshley]

*sigh*

Forgetting that Google Trends is a lagging indicator, and trying to predict future price movements from it?

YOU SHOULD BE ASHAMED OF YOURSELVES.

Dear idiots, google trends declining means fewer people searched for it in the immediate past. If google trends increases, it means more people searched for it in the immediate past. But you cannot predict future movement based on this lagging indicator. Proof: Look at the google trends chart at points D, E, and F. "Exactly. And this means the hype is gone," right? Bullshit. The level of stupidity here is astounding. Go back to drawing colorful lines on 4-hour price charts to predict mysteriously elusive massive crashes to $30. Or implying that government regulation would have a negative effect on Bitcoin price. Despite, you know, numerous regulatory "hits" having little to no effect aside from improving arbitrage opportunities. But, stay away from Google Trends if you think you can look at "A" and then predict "A-1" and "A-2." Google Trends is useful for a lot of things but future price prediction is not one of them.

[Miz4r]

But as things get more decentralized we should slowly come out on top.

Decentralized? With all the ASICS the network is getting more and more centralized.

ASICMiner alone currently holds 24% of the network hashing power!

For the idea of Bitcoin it would have been best if only CPU mining would be possible. No GPUs. No ASICs.

It takes time for ASICs to distribute among the population. They're brand new and have only just started shipping and mining, at the end of this year ASICs will have replaced all GPU hashing power and it's business as usual only with a couple hundred TH/s more power into the bitcoin network.

[Frizz23]

Dear idiots, google trends declining means fewer people searched for it in the immediate past. If google trends increases, it means more people searched for it in the immediate past. But you cannot predict future movement based on this lagging indicator. ...

Dear BitcoinAshley idiot, I don't want to predict the future of Google trends based on Google trends - I want to predict the future of Bitcoin based Google trends. Comprende?

[Frizz23]

It takes time for ASICs to distribute among the population.

So it's basically a step backwards (more centralization for the next future).

A Bitcoin minded at difficulty 100,000,000 is not better than one Bitcoin mined at difficulty 10

[Miz4r]

No it's not a step backwards. Whether you invest in CPU, GPU or ASIC for mining doesn't really make a difference. And more hashing power is actually better for the network as a whole.

[manfred]

google measures the hype; bitcointalk stats measures community activity.

If google search trend is a leading or lagging does not matter but for the first time in Bitcoins history the bitcoin price is diverting from the google search trend.

More important aspect is the existing bitcoin community. The number of new users on bitcointalk is pointing south. The number of new treads is pointing south, as is the number of posts. Only the page views are all over the place.

[Its About Sharing]

But as things get more decentralized we should slowly come out on top.

Decentralized? With all the ASICS the network is getting more and more centralized.

ASICMiner alone currently holds 24% of the network hashing power!

For the idea of Bitcoin it would have been best if only CPU mining would be possible. No GPUs. No ASICs.

Seriously, the 51% attack thing is not on the top of the list of worries. And, it is a very abstract way of saying centralization, especially considering that
those pools are made up of individuals and not really physical entities. And those individuals, mostly are behind BTC and not just making money from it. Before an attack happened, both
the pool operators and participants would likely correct the situation. Worst case we can say, "Hey get the fork off here..."

We have too many singular points of failure as it relates to funding mechanisms via the relatively few exchanges that exist. Once we start getting a more decentralized
exchange system (literally), then it will become increasingly more difficult to take BTC down, minus making it illegal. And, if it starts to become a store of value while
currencies fail around it, good luck to any government that tries - they would be attacked, if not for BTC then for what they let happen via the banksters.