Looks more and more like a 2011 repeat

[dree12]

Both Google trends and forum activity are lagging indicators. Quite nice to picture the current situation, and to compare "today" with "yesterday", but complete useless anything else.

All data are lagging indicators. All. So you are saying data is useless?

You got it wrong. Those indicators are lagging (and useless to predict future price) because both forum activity and Google searches are driven by price, and not the other way around.

Pray-tell... Why would higher price increase forum activity?

I think the theory is that it would increase forum activity for the same reasons it would increase Google searches.  If more people are interested enough to Google search it then why wouldn't those same underlying factors not also drive more people to satiate their inquiries through posting/viewing on these forums?

And why does it increase Google searches?

I'm not saying it does, however it does seem likely when you look at the correlation between search metrics and price history.

Assuming it does some guesses:
- increased media attention puts it at the forefront of attention for some people causing them to search for to see what other related news they might have missed out on.
- coin holders now have to potential reasons to sell their coins (or buy if they think the up trend continues) which leads them to search or discuss state of affairs and options on the forums.
- people following and believers of bitcoins have increased reason to discuss bitcoins with others.  Whether to gloat or give investment advice or whatever.
- probably a ton more I can't of off the top of my head.

What about the converse?

Bitcoin is at the forefront of attention; thus:

• Search volume for Bitcoin drives more buyers into the market, fuelling price increases.
• Speculators react to increased search volume and media coverage, further fuelling price increases.
• High search volume drives media attention to Bitcoin, creating media coverage which continues to fuel price increases.

I find this more likely, as I don't see why a high price alone will drive media attention to Bitcoin.

[1715011841]

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[1715011841]

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[amencon]

Both Google trends and forum activity are lagging indicators. Quite nice to picture the current situation, and to compare "today" with "yesterday", but complete useless anything else.

All data are lagging indicators. All. So you are saying data is useless?

You got it wrong. Those indicators are lagging (and useless to predict future price) because both forum activity and Google searches are driven by price, and not the other way around.

Pray-tell... Why would higher price increase forum activity?

I think the theory is that it would increase forum activity for the same reasons it would increase Google searches.  If more people are interested enough to Google search it then why wouldn't those same underlying factors not also drive more people to satiate their inquiries through posting/viewing on these forums?

And why does it increase Google searches?

I'm not saying it does, however it does seem likely when you look at the correlation between search metrics and price history.

Assuming it does some guesses:
- increased media attention puts it at the forefront of attention for some people causing them to search for to see what other related news they might have missed out on.
- coin holders now have to potential reasons to sell their coins (or buy if they think the up trend continues) which leads them to search or discuss state of affairs and options on the forums.
- people following and believers of bitcoins have increased reason to discuss bitcoins with others.  Whether to gloat or give investment advice or whatever.
- probably a ton more I can't of off the top of my head.

What about the converse?

Bitcoin is at the forefront of attention; thus:

• Search volume for Bitcoin drives more buyers into the market, fuelling price increases.
• Speculators react to increased search volume and media coverage, further fuelling price increases.
• High search volume drives media attention to Bitcoin, creating media coverage which continues to fuel price increases.

I find this more likely, as I don't see why a high price alone will drive media attention to Bitcoin.

Hmm good points.  Maybe it's a bit of both?  Seems possible there could be some feedback loop effect here.

[dnaleor]

I was a bitcoin bull, now fearing more and more we are actually in a 2011 repeat. Just compare the forum activity at that time and now:



Number of new members falling hard, number of posts still at a high level. That was ALSO the case in 2011
When the number of nen members hits 100/day, we will see the decline starting (I guess to 20-30$).

Removed my buy orders today, added multiple sell orders due to this chart...

[N12]

I was a bitcoin bull, now fearing more and more we are actually in a 2011 repeat. Just compare the forum activity at that time and now:



Number of new members falling hard, number of posts still at a high level. That was ALSO the case in 2011
When the number of nen members hits 100/day, we will see the decline starting (I guess to 20-30$).

Removed my buy orders today, added multiple sell orders due to this chart...

The green line, right? Hasn't that been in a strong decline for a while now ever since it topped out in May or so?

[dnaleor]

yes, the green line.
I was in some sort of denial. But now this period is just too long.
But also the red one is coming down now.

If you campare this to 2011, we see that when the red one is coming down, the new highs are lower than the previous highs and the new lows are lower than the previous lows, a bearish sign...

[vokain]

yes, the green line.
I was in some sort of denial. But now this period is just too long.
But also the red one is coming down now.

If you campare this to 2011, we see that when the red one is coming down, the new highs are lower than the previous highs and the new lows are lower than the previous lows, a bearish sign...

It's like you guys are conveniently ignoring all the development in the past two years

[manfred]

Quick update on proceedings. When will the trend be broken? The price seems unaffected by what is happening in the world instead just gradually deflates. The profit takers certainly are hard at work and make good use of it.

[ehoffman]

Quick update on proceedings. When will the trend be broken? The price seems unaffected by what is happening in the world instead just gradually deflates. The profit takers certainly are hard at work and make good use of it.

Very nice correlation   So we'll bottom at 30~40...

[Its About Sharing]

Quick update on proceedings. When will the trend be broken? The price seems unaffected by what is happening in the world instead just gradually deflates. The profit takers certainly are hard at work and make good use of it.

Very nice correlation   So we'll bottom at 30~40...

IMO that depends on a lot of things:

The continued progress of BTC's infrastructure
More interest in BTC (only 11 million shares right now) - Many of the holder now will sell to lock in profits but they still believe. There will be more interest at the "bottom" is my guess, much much more...
Global economic situation (Heck, the whole Global situation, not just economic)
Continued manipulation of precious metals down by paper selling - forcing more seekers of wealth holdings into alternative areas.
(Especially) America's treatment of the regulation and legality of BTC
Etc.

So, I would be very very careful about putting a number on it. But yes, around 30 to 40... 

[manfred]

2011 June 8^th, Bitcoin price peaked and most bitcoin software downloads where on the 15^th.
In 2013 the price peaked on 9 April and highest downloads where on the 10^th of April.

At the end of all this the smart once will have increased net possession of Bitcoins in the pocked. The short term speculators will continue to whine, cry and beg.



Cant add more data to 2013 range as it needs a whole months data otherwise it points down to the current 20k for the month. (last point is 160k)

[Wekkel]

Boy, do I long for the days before things fell apart..... 

[mmortal03]

Quick update on proceedings. When will the trend be broken? The price seems unaffected by what is happening in the world instead just gradually deflates. The profit takers certainly are hard at work and make good use of it.

Are you guys updating this comparison anywhere?

[manfred]

When will this relationship end?
.

[Spaceman_Spiff]

When will this relationship end?

Why aren't the starting points aligned?  Or said otherwise, the peaks are overlapped, but how is the Y-axis determined for both charts?  To get the same average price? Just somewhat arbitrary?

In my opinion, if you 'stretched out' the 2013 version a bit vertically, you would get better overlap.

[manfred]

When is the starting point? With the peaks its easy its a fixed day. Y-axis is just a screen-print from bitcoinchart and then the peaks are matched up.

[Spaceman_Spiff]

When is the starting point? With the peaks its easy its a fixed day. Y-axis is just a screen-print from bitcoinchart and then the peaks are matched up.

Yeah true, starting point is somewhat arbitrary, but you can see here that the 2013 plateau at start is higher than 2011.

Could you post both pictures/layers separately?

[manfred]

2013 started at ~$13 to ~$1 in 2011

[Frozenlock]

Manfred, please tell me you've got your nick from watching Day[9]! 

[zhangweiwu]

An update:

[Frozenlock]

Would you mind checking with the crash of August/September 2012?