Bubble or Not?

[whaawh]

The last bubble was in 2013.

Bitcoin is not a classic bubble, but still be 'suspicious,' says investing expert William Bernstein
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/24/william-bernstein-bitcoin-is-not-a-classic-bubble.html

• William Bernstein is a neurologist who became a best-selling author on investing in the 1990s.
• Bernstein does not believe bitcoin is a classic investing bubble because it doesn't fit all four of the criteria of manias he developed.
• "Unless [you are] an expert on blockchain technology and bitcoin, stay away. Don't invest in things [you] don't understand," Bernstein told CNBC.

Do you think we're in the 5th bubble?

They might call it as a bubble, most probably because of the speedy rising in prices, in January it was just $900 and now it hit $6000 few days ago 650% in just 9 months. No one would really believe it. But what I can say it is because of the rising demand for the coin, many people see its use and wants to have a piece of the coin plus the definite number of supply in circulation. Every one who understands economics will know the reason why the price go higher and higher.

in fact, you are right, But for newcomers to the crypto-currency sphere it will be very difficult to determine all these situations that occur in the pricing of Bitcoin. I think that today the video growth indicator of the Crypto currency is very good, but only for Bitcoin, because almost half of the altcoin goes down.

[1714138773]

1714138773

[1714138773]

1714138773

[1714138773]

1714138773

[CoinsCoinsEverywhere]

Bitcoin isn't in a bubble.I don't understand why most of the people create a thread like this whenever bitcoin passes ATH.This isn't like 2013.Things were different back then.Currently bitcoin price is backed by many companies,people and also widely accepted.A healthy correction is always welcomed.Bubble is when we see more then 50% decline in short period of time but i haven't seen that with bitcoin. 

If that's how you look at whether or not bitcoin is in a bubble, that's fine.  But the definition of a bubble is when people are paying a lot more for something than it's actually worth.  The problem is that there's no good way to figure out what a bitcoin is actually (i.e., should be) worth.  If you could nail that down, then you could say for sure whether or not we're in a bubble.

[AmXProX]

It is really hard to say if bitcoin is a bubble or not. What I know is that bitcoin don't offer anything
in return when you invest on it. And bitcoin is don't have any promises that it will perform well to
increase it's worth.

Bitcoin's price is merely from the demand it's getting from people without giving any promises. So is it a bubble?

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

It is really hard to say if bitcoin is a bubble or not. What I know is that bitcoin don't offer anything
in return when you invest on it. And bitcoin is don't have any promises that it will perform well to
increase it's worth.

Bitcoin's price is merely from the demand it's getting from people without giving any promises. So is it a bubble?

Fiat currencies are literally worthless by definition so that argument doesn't really hold at all. Bitcoin takes a lot of effort/money to create and carries large risks, all of which are factored into the price.

Furthermore, it's the gateway into a whole new class of investment assets, so that adds to the value of Bitcoin as well.

And lastly, it has a technology driving it that is far superior to traditional financial instruments.

So saying that Bitcoin doesn't offer anything in return is complete nonsense.

[Fireblade]

It is really hard to say if bitcoin is a bubble or not. What I know is that bitcoin don't offer anything
in return when you invest on it. And bitcoin is don't have any promises that it will perform well to
increase it's worth.

Bitcoin's price is merely from the demand it's getting from people without giving any promises. So is it a bubble?

But i do not think that bitcoin is  bubble. to me i think bitcoin is trading in its origion price and the price increase is due to the interest of the people , therefore i do not think that bitcoin is a bubble.

[CoinsCoinsEverywhere]

It is really hard to say if bitcoin is a bubble or not. What I know is that bitcoin don't offer anything
in return when you invest on it. And bitcoin is don't have any promises that it will perform well to
increase it's worth.

Bitcoin's price is merely from the demand it's getting from people without giving any promises. So is it a bubble?

Fiat currencies are literally worthless by definition so that argument doesn't really hold at all. Bitcoin takes a lot of effort/money to create and carries large risks, all of which are factored into the price.

Furthermore, it's the gateway into a whole new class of investment assets, so that adds to the value of Bitcoin as well.

And lastly, it has a technology driving it that is far superior to traditional financial instruments.

So saying that Bitcoin doesn't offer anything in return is complete nonsense.

I think AmXProX's point is that you can't trade bitcoin in for anything, just like you can't trade fiat in for anything (as opposed to a commodity-backed currency in which you can trade in the currency for the commodity).  There are indeed things that make bitcoin valuable, but it's not backed by anything, and there's nothing to really determine how much it should be worth.  Bitcoin could function just as well at $1000/coin as it can at $6000/coin.  In fact, while the hash rate would drop and theoretically increase the potential for someone to mount a 51% attack against it, bitcoin would probably still function at $100, or maybe even $10.

[malikusama]

The last bubble was in 2013.

Bitcoin is not a classic bubble, but still be 'suspicious,' says investing expert William Bernstein
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/24/william-bernstein-bitcoin-is-not-a-classic-bubble.html

• William Bernstein is a neurologist who became a best-selling author on investing in the 1990s.
• Bernstein does not believe bitcoin is a classic investing bubble because it doesn't fit all four of the criteria of manias he developed.
• "Unless [you are] an expert on blockchain technology and bitcoin, stay away. Don't invest in things [you] don't understand," Bernstein told CNBC.

Do you think we're in the 5th bubble?

May be it could be a 5th one, my point of view was completely different before this but now after seeing this continuous rise it seems like an alarm.
But if we consider it a bubble what would be the price after the sudden downfall? I think it will not going to cross below $5000 or $4800.

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

It is really hard to say if bitcoin is a bubble or not. What I know is that bitcoin don't offer anything
in return when you invest on it. And bitcoin is don't have any promises that it will perform well to
increase it's worth.

Bitcoin's price is merely from the demand it's getting from people without giving any promises. So is it a bubble?

Fiat currencies are literally worthless by definition so that argument doesn't really hold at all. Bitcoin takes a lot of effort/money to create and carries large risks, all of which are factored into the price.

Furthermore, it's the gateway into a whole new class of investment assets, so that adds to the value of Bitcoin as well.

And lastly, it has a technology driving it that is far superior to traditional financial instruments.

So saying that Bitcoin doesn't offer anything in return is complete nonsense.

I think AmXProX's point is that you can't trade bitcoin in for anything, just like you can't trade fiat in for anything (as opposed to a commodity-backed currency in which you can trade in the currency for the commodity).  There are indeed things that make bitcoin valuable, but it's not backed by anything, and there's nothing to really determine how much it should be worth.  Bitcoin could function just as well at $1000/coin as it can at $6000/coin.  In fact, while the hash rate would drop and theoretically increase the potential for someone to mount a 51% attack against it, bitcoin would probably still function at $100, or maybe even $10.

That's the case with any denominator though.
Even if you take Gold and reintroduce it as a currency, nobody will be able to tell you what that piece of Gold should be worth. Because there is no such value. The value always strictly depends on two trading parties coming to an agreement.

As such, it makes literally no difference whether we decide to all collectively use Gold, Fiat, or Bitcoin as our standard currency. The amount of goods traded will adjust accoding to the supply and demand of currency vs goods.
Bitcoin is by far the most convenient and efficient solution though, and more sophisticated cryptos will be even more so.

[ralphmaries94]

Bitcoin sometimes satisfy your own satisfaction. Bitcoin help many people to have their own money.

[jtipt]

Bubble or not , the tech will remain. But yea , it's posible that we are already on the bubble from a while so the next coming weeks/months will be very important for the crypto space.

this same question has been asked since first time BTC had an significant rise in price, and it is still asked every time BTC rises with an amount people didn't expect it to. It's pretty obvious that BTC is an bubble to some extent, if people suddenly lose interest in BTC it will burst, but now right now.

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

Bubble or not , the tech will remain. But yea , it's posible that we are already on the bubble from a while so the next coming weeks/months will be very important for the crypto space.

this same question has been asked since first time BTC had an significant rise in price, and it is still asked every time BTC rises with an amount people didn't expect it to. It's pretty obvious that BTC is an bubble to some extent, if people suddenly lose interest in BTC it will burst, but now right now.

If people lost interest it would deflate. A bubble would mean that an asset rose to more than its value. But Bitcoin doesn't really have an upper limit on its value, especially not with altcoins becoming the new go-to for capital raising. So there really is no bubble to burst.
The only thing that can happen at this point is another blockchain taking over, which is unlikely to happen anytime soon.

[mrbnson]

Bitcoin to me does not seem like a bubble but perhaps we are all biased because a large portion of the people in this forum are firm believers in bitcoin. The ones we need to be concerned about are the people who invest with little or no knowledge of bitcoin and expect a smooth ride to the top, they are the ones who will get nervous at any negative signs and could cause a crash in the price. As long as there are more of us believers and less of them then we should be fine.

[fulmetal08larz]

In my opinion, perception in bitcoin depends on the investor itself. If you are a somewhat conservative kind of investor, you may see it negatively but, if you are aiming for long term and an aggressive kind of investor, bubble or not, it won't matter. Somehow, I realized that news like; bitcoin is a bubble, someone badmouthing bitcoin, and other negative news, they all come out when there is bloodbath in the market, causing FUD giving opportunity to buy bitcoin at a lower price.

[CoinsCoinsEverywhere]

It is really hard to say if bitcoin is a bubble or not. What I know is that bitcoin don't offer anything
in return when you invest on it. And bitcoin is don't have any promises that it will perform well to
increase it's worth.

Bitcoin's price is merely from the demand it's getting from people without giving any promises. So is it a bubble?

Fiat currencies are literally worthless by definition so that argument doesn't really hold at all. Bitcoin takes a lot of effort/money to create and carries large risks, all of which are factored into the price.

Furthermore, it's the gateway into a whole new class of investment assets, so that adds to the value of Bitcoin as well.

And lastly, it has a technology driving it that is far superior to traditional financial instruments.

So saying that Bitcoin doesn't offer anything in return is complete nonsense.

I think AmXProX's point is that you can't trade bitcoin in for anything, just like you can't trade fiat in for anything (as opposed to a commodity-backed currency in which you can trade in the currency for the commodity).  There are indeed things that make bitcoin valuable, but it's not backed by anything, and there's nothing to really determine how much it should be worth.  Bitcoin could function just as well at $1000/coin as it can at $6000/coin.  In fact, while the hash rate would drop and theoretically increase the potential for someone to mount a 51% attack against it, bitcoin would probably still function at $100, or maybe even $10.

That's the case with any denominator though.
Even if you take Gold and reintroduce it as a currency, nobody will be able to tell you what that piece of Gold should be worth. Because there is no such value. The value always strictly depends on two trading parties coming to an agreement.

As such, it makes literally no difference whether we decide to all collectively use Gold, Fiat, or Bitcoin as our standard currency. The amount of goods traded will adjust accoding to the supply and demand of currency vs goods.
Bitcoin is by far the most convenient and efficient solution though, and more sophisticated cryptos will be even more so.

Ok, so this is kind of tricky, but I think we actually agree somewhat.  The benefit of using a gold-backed currency (or gold itself) is that the supply is tangible, limited, and cannot be changed easily.  In essence, your country's supply of gold represents the value/worth of your country's economy.  If you have 1000 oz of gold, then each ounce represents 1/1000 of your country's economic output/worth/wealth.  If your economy grows (increases in productivity and wealth), each ounce of gold is worth more, and vice-versa.

The problem with fiat currency, of course, is that a government can increase the supply at will, which devalues it.

Bitcoin is not tangible, but it does have the advantage of limited supply, and actually its even better than gold in that the supply is completely fixed (assuming that enough people don't decide to increase the cap, which hopefully will never happen).  So I think that bitcoin could work just as well as gold as a currency, but the problem is that right now it doesn't.  As a currency, it just sits next to all other currencies.  It isn't backed by a particular economic system (like a country, state, etc.) that includes well-defined/well-known production or services of some sort, so it's not really possible to figure out how much it should be worth.

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

It is really hard to say if bitcoin is a bubble or not. What I know is that bitcoin don't offer anything
in return when you invest on it. And bitcoin is don't have any promises that it will perform well to
increase it's worth.

Bitcoin's price is merely from the demand it's getting from people without giving any promises. So is it a bubble?

Fiat currencies are literally worthless by definition so that argument doesn't really hold at all. Bitcoin takes a lot of effort/money to create and carries large risks, all of which are factored into the price.

Furthermore, it's the gateway into a whole new class of investment assets, so that adds to the value of Bitcoin as well.

And lastly, it has a technology driving it that is far superior to traditional financial instruments.

So saying that Bitcoin doesn't offer anything in return is complete nonsense.

I think AmXProX's point is that you can't trade bitcoin in for anything, just like you can't trade fiat in for anything (as opposed to a commodity-backed currency in which you can trade in the currency for the commodity).  There are indeed things that make bitcoin valuable, but it's not backed by anything, and there's nothing to really determine how much it should be worth.  Bitcoin could function just as well at $1000/coin as it can at $6000/coin.  In fact, while the hash rate would drop and theoretically increase the potential for someone to mount a 51% attack against it, bitcoin would probably still function at $100, or maybe even $10.

That's the case with any denominator though.
Even if you take Gold and reintroduce it as a currency, nobody will be able to tell you what that piece of Gold should be worth. Because there is no such value. The value always strictly depends on two trading parties coming to an agreement.

As such, it makes literally no difference whether we decide to all collectively use Gold, Fiat, or Bitcoin as our standard currency. The amount of goods traded will adjust accoding to the supply and demand of currency vs goods.
Bitcoin is by far the most convenient and efficient solution though, and more sophisticated cryptos will be even more so.

Ok, so this is kind of tricky, but I think we actually agree somewhat.  The benefit of using a gold-backed currency (or gold itself) is that the supply is tangible, limited, and cannot be changed easily.  In essence, your country's supply of gold represents the value/worth of your country's economy.  If you have 1000 oz of gold, then each ounce represents 1/1000 of your country's economic output/worth/wealth.  If your economy grows (increases in productivity and wealth), each ounce of gold is worth more, and vice-versa.

The problem with fiat currency, of course, is that a government can increase the supply at will, which devalues it.

Bitcoin is not tangible, but it does have the advantage of limited supply, and actually its even better than gold in that the supply is completely fixed (assuming that enough people don't decide to increase the cap, which hopefully will never happen).  So I think that bitcoin could work just as well as gold as a currency, but the problem is that right now it doesn't.  As a currency, it just sits next to all other currencies.  It isn't backed by a particular economic system (like a country, state, etc.) that includes well-defined/well-known production or services of some sort, so it's not really possible to figure out how much it should be worth.

Most of that is spot on. The only point that is still questionable is the idea of "how much anything should be worth". Even when you have a currency "backed up by a country's productivity", both can arbitrarily be decided to define each other. But each on its own has no inherent value whatsoever. Which is why even gold is inherently worthless. The only reason people can't think of Gold as worthless is because a lot of people have decided that it's not. The same is happening with Bitcoin. Even if it has no inherent value, that doesn't matter because nothing in this world does. As long as the quantity is limited and the item can be moved around easily in portions it can be used as a currency. But again, no matter what item you choose, it is worthless on its own.

[jjacob]

Bitcoin to me does not seem like a bubble but perhaps we are all biased because a large portion of the people in this forum are firm believers in bitcoin. The ones we need to be concerned about are the people who invest with little or no knowledge of bitcoin and expect a smooth ride to the top, they are the ones who will get nervous at any negative signs and could cause a crash in the price. As long as there are more of us believers and less of them then we should be fine.

You need all sorts of people in a market, to give it liquidity. If everybody was a long-term holder, the market cap would have only gradually risen. The hot money flowing through Bitcoin is what causes this volatility. It might result in a bubble, but this is a feature of every asset class.

[chickenfried12]

bubble huge bubble  near like a gold bubble ..
there is only external forces must be so weak that they can not afford such power.
bad news is everywhere. a big balloon: D yes but full

[barota]

Two months ago he always needed corrections (At least 50 percent ) And now we see bitcoin price all time high . We know the price will rise but gradually , Bitcoin changed lot ; I do not know bitcoin became strong? Or just a bubble?

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

Two months ago he always needed corrections (At least 50 percent ) And now we see bitcoin price all time high . We know the price will rise but gradually , Bitcoin changed lot ; I do not know bitcoin became strong? Or just a bubble?

It's becoming widely adopted by a lot of people in many countries. Bitcoin is making it to the mainstream news every other day now, so the situation is quite different from what it used to be.

[timerland]

I mean, there are a lot of real adoption happening here and that's undeniable. For example Japan and Australia have both "legalized" bitcoin and removed the double taxing that came with bitcoin's purchase and that was a huge step in the right direction.

Still though, price has risen around 15 fold in the span of 1 and a half years.

Definitely close to a bubble and i think correction may come soon to bring down price to around $5000.