Bubble or Not?

[thecodebear]

The last bubble was in 2013.

Bitcoin is not a classic bubble, but still be 'suspicious,' says investing expert William Bernstein
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/24/william-bernstein-bitcoin-is-not-a-classic-bubble.html

• William Bernstein is a neurologist who became a best-selling author on investing in the 1990s.
• Bernstein does not believe bitcoin is a classic investing bubble because it doesn't fit all four of the criteria of manias he developed.
• "Unless [you are] an expert on blockchain technology and bitcoin, stay away. Don't invest in things [you] don't understand," Bernstein told CNBC.

Do you think we're in the 5th bubble?

A bubble suggests the market cannot sustain the current price and it is bound to collapse down to a fraction of the current price. This is just not the case with Bitcoin if we're talking about long term - and I'm sure that all the bitcoin naysayers are talking long term, they think it will collapse and go to zero and Bitcoin will be gone. There have been a few previous temporary bubbles that popped and the price was down for a few months before rising back up, and the one longer term bubble in the wake of Nov 2013 run-up and the Mt. Gox hack, but if Mt.Gox hadn't collapsed the price likely would have returned back to $1000 within 6 months instead of taking 3 years.

The potential Bitcoin market is billions of users and its currently maybe 20 million users or so. It's about as far from a bubble that you can get. Besides it is bubbling and popping all the time now, just at a much more rapid rate with much smaller volatility than a few years ago. Already this year 3 main bubbles have come and gone just since May. Bubbles mean nothing for the long term growth of Bitcoin, they are really just corrections that serve to build up momentum for the next price rise.

In that article that was linked to, right from the beginning you can tell that while the author made be an expert in Bubbles, he doesn't understand Bitcoin at all. He says Bitcoin has no intrinsic value, which is the very first thing anyone who doesn't know anything about bitcoin says. He also said it's a very bad sign the price keeps rising, which doesn't make any sense. User adoption means the price rises. The fact that the price keeps rising is a very good sign - people are flooding into the market.

The fundamental mistake that people who don't get bitcoin make is that they try to look at it through the lens of a stock analysis. A stock can easily get away from the fundamentals of the value of the company underlying the stock when people get excited about good news for the company, because let's not forget all stock are already fairly mature when the first hit the market, because companies only IPO when they are ready to go public. Bitcoin has always been available to purchase or mine from its very conception, buying it now is like being a VC getting in on a startup when it still has a long way to go before it IPOs, and as an investor you are looking for 10x to 100x ROI. That's bitcoin at the current $8000 price. The fundamental (intrinsic) value of bitcoin is this: the billions of people in the world who are connected to the internet being able to sidestep banks and become their own bank, side step high credit card fees and digitally pay for things themselves, being able to send any amount of money DIRECTLY to anyone with no middlemen in an hour or less with barely any fee. That's revolutionary and an extremely high intrinsic value.

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

No yet, 100k before 5 years...YES
Now is only pump with correction, no awesome bubble...

Bubble or not, bitcoin can reach $100,000 soon and I don't care about on what year or how many years does it need to take just to reach that amount. And it sounds and looks good when the price reaches at $100,000 for about 5 years. What I'm thinking is on how John McAfee will eat his d on national television if the price never gets into $500,000 for 3 years.

I don't think he will eat anything. His prediction was merely an observation of exponential trends, which could lead to a price of $500,000 in 3 years easily. The only relevant question to that prediction is how long the exponential growth will continue.

I don't know if he's serious or being sarcastic when he said that. I'm only worried and interested of bitcoin price get up to $500,000. Predictions are speculations that has basis and sometimes doesn't have. Anyone has a freedom of doing it so and I think he's really exaggerated on that thing. Well if that will happen and he's actually right to his prediction, we are all rich people man.

I don't think his estimate is an exaggeration at all. There are numerous reasonable methods of prediction that suggest higher prices, but they don't account for many factors.

[Cherylstar86]

No yet, 100k before 5 years...YES
Now is only pump with correction, no awesome bubble...

Bubble or not, bitcoin can reach $100,000 soon and I don't care about on what year or how many years does it need to take just to reach that amount. And it sounds and looks good when the price reaches at $100,000 for about 5 years. What I'm thinking is on how John McAfee will eat his d on national television if the price never gets into $500,000 for 3 years.

I don't think he will eat anything. His prediction was merely an observation of exponential trends, which could lead to a price of $500,000 in 3 years easily. The only relevant question to that prediction is how long the exponential growth will continue.

I don't know if he's serious or being sarcastic when he said that. I'm only worried and interested of bitcoin price get up to $500,000. Predictions are speculations that has basis and sometimes doesn't have. Anyone has a freedom of doing it so and I think he's really exaggerated on that thing. Well if that will happen and he's actually right to his prediction, we are all rich people man.

I don't think his estimate is an exaggeration at all. There are numerous reasonable methods of prediction that suggest higher prices, but they don't account for many factors.

The predictions was just uncertain although there were time probables will come to a situations that it might be true. Speculations, rumors and other undesired statements will divert every persons mind over the current scenario which bitcoin value in effect to rumors about bubble. I think price becames high only if there's demand rising and not for that any reasons of manipulations which made it a so called bubble.

[bitllionaire]

No yet, 100k before 5 years...YES
Now is only pump with correction, no awesome bubble...

Bubble or not, bitcoin can reach $100,000 soon and I don't care about on what year or how many years does it need to take just to reach that amount. And it sounds and looks good when the price reaches at $100,000 for about 5 years. What I'm thinking is on how John McAfee will eat his d on national television if the price never gets into $500,000 for 3 years.

I don't think he will eat anything. His prediction was merely an observation of exponential trends, which could lead to a price of $500,000 in 3 years easily. The only relevant question to that prediction is how long the exponential growth will continue.

I don't know if he's serious or being sarcastic when he said that. I'm only worried and interested of bitcoin price get up to $500,000. Predictions are speculations that has basis and sometimes doesn't have. Anyone has a freedom of doing it so and I think he's really exaggerated on that thing. Well if that will happen and he's actually right to his prediction, we are all rich people man.

I don't think his estimate is an exaggeration at all. There are numerous reasonable methods of prediction that suggest higher prices, but they don't account for many factors.

The predictions was just uncertain although there were time probables will come to a situations that it might be true. Speculations, rumors and other undesired statements will divert every persons mind over the current scenario which bitcoin value in effect to rumors about bubble. I think price becames high only if there's demand rising and not for that any reasons of manipulations which made it a so called bubble.

That is right but i think investors now are too much mature, In fact every person know about the potential of bitcoin, even it is expected that the price will continue increasing for a long time. The reason behind the increasing trend of bitcoin is the increasing demand which is in fact reduce the supply and so the price continue to increase. I think now it has become difficult to manipulate the price of bitcoin.

[eann014]

Even if its in bubble or not the important thing here is, bitcoin is the 1st and the leading crytos all over all coins. Even if there are a new altcoins coming, still bitcoin will be the leading coin, bitcoin now have around an average of $8k so what do you think of it? I guess it is up to us on how do we see bitcoin.

[turkandjaydee]

Even if its in bubble or not the important thing here is, bitcoin is the 1st and the leading crytos all over all coins. Even if there are a new altcoins coming, still bitcoin will be the leading coin, bitcoin now have around an average of $8k so what do you think of it? I guess it is up to us on how do we see bitcoin.

My opinion is :
More and more people have known bitcoin now, the demand will always increase.
It will happen till the crypto market cap hit $trillions.

So bubble or not? maybe not.

[imstillthebest]

The last bubble was in 2013.

Bitcoin is not a classic bubble, but still be 'suspicious,' says investing expert William Bernstein
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/24/william-bernstein-bitcoin-is-not-a-classic-bubble.html

• William Bernstein is a neurologist who became a best-selling author on investing in the 1990s.
• Bernstein does not believe bitcoin is a classic investing bubble because it doesn't fit all four of the criteria of manias he developed.
• "Unless [you are] an expert on blockchain technology and bitcoin, stay away. Don't invest in things [you] don't understand," Bernstein told CNBC.

Do you think we're in the 5th bubble?

bitcoin is indeed a bubble because as we see its price surge verry high and then pops just like a bubble resulting for an unexpected price drop  but then again bitcoin still recovers and then repeats again. not only a bubble but bitcoin is also suspected as a ponzi/ pyramid scheme because old investors are getting a benifit of it if new people were constantly investing due to a higher demand in supply and can result for a sudden price hike.

[JohnWick2]

I think Bitcoin isn't a bubble ). Someone can say that it's a bubble but they just want to dump the price of Bitcoin at that time to have chance to buy Bitcoin at the lower price. I don't really care if Bitcoin is a bubble or not cause I'll keep holding my Bitcoin for few more years maybe Bitcoin can reach to 20k$ soon )

[WatchMaker]

Bubble or not, bitcoin is here to stay.
And by the way, bitcoin is been called a bubble for far too long.
Many people buy that "bubble thing" some years back and now regretting that, though.

[Tankdestroyer]

That is right but i think investors now are too much mature, In fact every person know about the potential of bitcoin, even it is expected that the price will continue increasing for a long time. The reason behind the increasing trend of bitcoin is the increasing demand which is in fact reduce the supply and so the price continue to increase. I think now it has become difficult to manipulate the price of bitcoin.

And for that reason, this is not the 5th bubble as it is more resilient than ever. Also, the fact that adoption rate is increasing with the legalization of bitcoin and crypto in other countries is what makes me think that this rise itself ain't a bubble but is caused by btc having a more constant stream of demand when compared to what it has in the past. Since it can be used for transaction especially in Japan, instead of users all using it for speculatory purpose, some use it for it's original purpose making price rise.

[South Park]

The last bubble was in 2013.

Bitcoin is not a classic bubble, but still be 'suspicious,' says investing expert William Bernstein
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/24/william-bernstein-bitcoin-is-not-a-classic-bubble.html

• William Bernstein is a neurologist who became a best-selling author on investing in the 1990s.
• Bernstein does not believe bitcoin is a classic investing bubble because it doesn't fit all four of the criteria of manias he developed.
• "Unless [you are] an expert on blockchain technology and bitcoin, stay away. Don't invest in things [you] don't understand," Bernstein told CNBC.

Do you think we're in the 5th bubble?

I do not think we are in a bubble, the price has gone up but to me there were enough reasons to justify this growth, but that does not mean there was not speculation on it and that maybe the price is a little higher than what it should be, but that is the nature of all assets, to grow in a not uniform way.

[BitcoinPanther]

The last bubble was in 2013.

Bitcoin is not a classic bubble, but still be 'suspicious,' says investing expert William Bernstein
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/24/william-bernstein-bitcoin-is-not-a-classic-bubble.html

• William Bernstein is a neurologist who became a best-selling author on investing in the 1990s.
• Bernstein does not believe bitcoin is a classic investing bubble because it doesn't fit all four of the criteria of manias he developed.
• "Unless [you are] an expert on blockchain technology and bitcoin, stay away. Don't invest in things [you] don't understand," Bernstein told CNBC.

Do you think we're in the 5th bubble?

I do not think we are in a bubble, the price has gone up but to me there were enough reasons to justify this growth, but that does not mean there was not speculation on it and that maybe the price is a little higher than what it should be, but that is the nature of all assets, to grow in a not uniform way.

I also think that the price surge at this moment is not a bubble. I read somewhere that there is an upcoming event this Dec.  regarding bitcoin investment security, or protection on fraud with regards to Bitcoin.  This is probably the reason why bitcoin price is going up.  Aside from that, its Dec. people are having extra payment from their jobs such as bonuses and have extra  money to invest in Bitcoin.

[Snarks]

I have read Bitcoin can't be compared to other bubbles because Bitcoin is a new financial asset class. Just look how much money there is in the derivatives market and divide that by the number of Bitcoin.

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

No yet, 100k before 5 years...YES
Now is only pump with correction, no awesome bubble...

Bubble or not, bitcoin can reach $100,000 soon and I don't care about on what year or how many years does it need to take just to reach that amount. And it sounds and looks good when the price reaches at $100,000 for about 5 years. What I'm thinking is on how John McAfee will eat his d on national television if the price never gets into $500,000 for 3 years.

I don't think he will eat anything. His prediction was merely an observation of exponential trends, which could lead to a price of $500,000 in 3 years easily. The only relevant question to that prediction is how long the exponential growth will continue.

I don't know if he's serious or being sarcastic when he said that. I'm only worried and interested of bitcoin price get up to $500,000. Predictions are speculations that has basis and sometimes doesn't have. Anyone has a freedom of doing it so and I think he's really exaggerated on that thing. Well if that will happen and he's actually right to his prediction, we are all rich people man.

I don't think his estimate is an exaggeration at all. There are numerous reasonable methods of prediction that suggest higher prices, but they don't account for many factors.

The predictions was just uncertain although there were time probables will come to a situations that it might be true. Speculations, rumors and other undesired statements will divert every persons mind over the current scenario which bitcoin value in effect to rumors about bubble. I think price becames high only if there's demand rising and not for that any reasons of manipulations which made it a so called bubble.

That is right but i think investors now are too much mature, In fact every person know about the potential of bitcoin, even it is expected that the price will continue increasing for a long time. The reason behind the increasing trend of bitcoin is the increasing demand which is in fact reduce the supply and so the price continue to increase. I think now it has become difficult to manipulate the price of bitcoin.

I strongly disagree with that assertion, most investors now are still just as much kids throwing their parents credit card around as back then. If anything, traders (there are almost no investors in crypto right now) are becoming less and less mature, as they are blinded by the potential profits.

[el kaka22]

Even if its in bubble or not the important thing here is, bitcoin is the 1st and the leading crytos all over all coins. Even if there are a new altcoins coming, still bitcoin will be the leading coin, bitcoin now have around an average of $8k so what do you think of it? I guess it is up to us on how do we see bitcoin.

My opinion is :
More and more people have known bitcoin now, the demand will always increase.
It will happen till the crypto market cap hit $trillions.

So bubble or not? maybe not.

As the demand keeps increasing, then the value will keep increasing and I really do not see how something that is useful will end up being dumped that huge unless an external factor decides to declare war on it which if everyone understands that the community strength is all that matters, it won't have any effect on its value. Bitcoin will keep increasing in value and the highest we can ever have is a balance.

If anyone wants to call the increase in demand a bubble, then that is their opinion but as long as bitcoin remain useful, it will keep soaring.

[h4yfans]

Yes, it's bubble but we are far far away from the bubble. We are not 10K yet. My prediction 25K is the bubble price.

[lumeire]

Yes, it's bubble but we are far far away from the bubble. We are not 10K yet. My prediction 25K is the bubble price.

25k is horribly optimistic, even for now. $10k is the most attainable bubble peak at the least.

Anyway, you should always brace yourself for a sudden crash. It seems inevitable at this point. What goes up must come down as they say.

[1Referee]

Anyway, you should always brace yourself for a sudden crash. It seems inevitable at this point. What goes up must come down as they say.

At some point it will indeed fall down significantly, but the only thing is at what point, and how far will it sink. People have been expecting the market to crash badly after every round price level (e.g $2000, $3000, $4000, etc) we went through, and it still didn't happen. I think it definitely has something to do with the fact that people more than ever are willing to hold their coins for a longer period of time. Every person with common sense knows how this market has gone up this year, and for that reason don't want to miss out on an even higher price. Selling may result in a big disappointment, which the people who've sold around $4000/$5000 will blindly admit.

[South Park]

Yes, it's bubble but we are far far away from the bubble. We are not 10K yet. My prediction 25K is the bubble price.

25k is horribly optimistic, even for now. $10k is the most attainable bubble peak at the least.

Anyway, you should always brace yourself for a sudden crash. It seems inevitable at this point. What goes up must come down as they say.

We know that there must be a decrease in price but the most important thing is how far the price can go down, and I think the price cannot go down that much, at worst the price can go down up to 5000 and from there the price could go up once again and right now it does not seem likely we are going to see such a decrease in price.

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

Yes, it's bubble but we are far far away from the bubble. We are not 10K yet. My prediction 25K is the bubble price.

25k is horribly optimistic, even for now. $10k is the most attainable bubble peak at the least.

Anyway, you should always brace yourself for a sudden crash. It seems inevitable at this point. What goes up must come down as they say.

Nothing has to come down and it always depends on the created value.

If the preceived value is lower than the value that is created people will just come snatching up coins.

Whales know this and the times of low volume are over. So expecting major corrections could be a very foolish move.

It's important to brace yourself for dumps, but it's also important to be prepared in case the price doesn't dump anywhere as much as expected. You might just end up having to buy back higher than you sold.