Bad idea to buy a kncminer Jupiter?

[hummerpaskaa]

Hi,

I am fairly new to the bitcoin world, but I have been reading pretty much everything I can find for a week now, and I am looking into buying a
kncminer Jupiter - https://www.kncminer.com/products/jupiter.

All profitability calculations I can do seem to suggest it would be  good investment.
However, am I too late? With the queues I would imagine it could take a while until I get my box, would it at that point be useless and not net a profit at all, or is it still a viable investment?

Would appreciate any advice and comments.

Thanks.

[t3xasdolly]

Hi,

I am fairly new to the bitcoin world, but I have been reading pretty much everything I can find for a week now, and I am looking into buying a
kncminer Jupiter - https://www.kncminer.com/products/jupiter.

All profitability calculations I can do seem to suggest it would be  good investment.
However, am I too late? With the queues I would imagine it could take a while until I get my box, would it at that point be useless and not net a profit at all, or is it still a viable investment?

Would appreciate any advice and comments.

Thanks.

are these beauties in stock?

[phantastisch]

Hi,

I am fairly new to the bitcoin world, but I have been reading pretty much everything I can find for a week now, and I am looking into buying a
kncminer Jupiter - https://www.kncminer.com/products/jupiter.

All profitability calculations I can do seem to suggest it would be  good investment.
However, am I too late? With the queues I would imagine it could take a while until I get my box, would it at that point be useless and not net a profit at all, or is it still a viable investment?

Would appreciate any advice and comments.

Thanks.

are these beauties in stock?

No. You have to preorder.

[Abdussamad]

Have you looked into KNC Miner? It is not possible to say with certainty whether they will deliver in time or even at all.

[hummerpaskaa]

Well I have been reading this thread https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=170332.0 and people seem optimistic about it.

[brishtiteveja]

Hey bro,
     I am also following that thread. And you can also see how crazy people are in some other threads.. People are even trusting strangers and buying shares in groups.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=226319.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=228707.0
     After reading for a while, I am pretty convinced that investment in kncminer can be legit.
     Let's talk about it more. And come to a conclusion for us. But for sure, I felt that If we wanna buy, we have to buy soon.
     Because I also wanna invest and I am also scared to invest like you do.
     Best wishes.

[hummerpaskaa]

Well one thing I am unsure about is that since a lot of ASIC miners are being shipped now, by the time I would get one if I placed an order now, what could the difficulty level be at?
I have tried running a profitibaility calculator with some absurd difficulty levels and I still net a fairly decent profit, so I just want to make sure I am not missing something here.

[totemITnow]

Well one thing I am unsure about is that since a lot of ASIC miners are being shipped now, by the time I would get one if I placed an order now, what could the difficulty level be at?
I have tried running a profitibaility calculator with some absurd difficulty levels and I still net a fairly decent profit, so I just want to make sure I am not missing something here.

there is so much money in preorders its tough to estimate - I suggest 1G difficulty for start 5G difficulty after year

[J35st3r]

Far too much ASIC Gold Rush Fever in the mining community right now. For a rather more critical view of KNCMiner try ...

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=228068.0 (my thread, but just crossposted from newbies, not my own views)
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=231739.0

IMHO none of the commodity kit (Avalon, BFL, KNCMiner) will be profitable for orders placed today (by the time they deliver, always late, difficulty will be so high that your ROI is never).

But if you're not concerned about profit (yes there are other reasons to mine), then OK, take a punt at it.

[Devine]

I think the kncminer stuff is just too big of a gamble. I've already had enough of BFL's never delivering thing.

There are Block Erupter Blades in the wild so if you've got the cash (5 - 7k USD) you could snag one of those. I'm pretty sure the ROI will be great because everybody else will still be waiting on preorders for at least 6 months.
In a couple of weeks when I start working again I will be monitoring the forums constantly for anybody selling a Block Erupter Blade.

[Abdussamad]

Well one thing I am unsure about is that since a lot of ASIC miners are being shipped now, by the time I would get one if I placed an order now, what could the difficulty level be at?
I have tried running a profitibaility calculator with some absurd difficulty levels and I still net a fairly decent profit, so I just want to make sure I am not missing something here.

I already pointed out what you are missing and you ignored it. There is little chance that KNC miner will deliver anything.

Forget about difficulty calculations. First try and determine whether you will get anything at all for you coins.

[J35st3r]

I think the kncminer stuff is just too big of a gamble. I've already had enough of BFL's never delivering thing.

There are Block Erupter Blades in the wild so if you've got the cash (5 - 7k USD) you could snag one of those. I'm pretty sure the ROI will be great because everybody else will still be waiting on preorders for at least 6 months.
In a couple of weeks when I start working again I will be monitoring the forums constantly for anybody selling a Block Erupter Blade.

You think? At the time of the auction the winning bidders where being called fools for paying so much (76BTC).

Use a good calculator eg http://www.coinish.com/calc/ (expert mode) for your ROI and see what you think?

PS you may like this thread by a Blade Runner https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=205369.0
And this was the original auction thread at 76BTC https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178275.0
And a later one at 50BTC https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=189248.0

[hummerpaskaa]

Well one thing I am unsure about is that since a lot of ASIC miners are being shipped now, by the time I would get one if I placed an order now, what could the difficulty level be at?
I have tried running a profitibaility calculator with some absurd difficulty levels and I still net a fairly decent profit, so I just want to make sure I am not missing something here.

there is so much money in preorders its tough to estimate - I suggest 1G difficulty for start 5G difficulty after year

1G really? It is at 15,5M now and I read something about a 15% increase? If it is 1G my calculations are way off, is this really right?

[brishtiteveja]

Hi,
   I actually did some massive data analysis of bitcoin difficulty upto December,2014 and network hashrate and also your payout from your kncminer saturn or jupiter..
   Please comment on my thread..
   https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=232670.0

   Thank you. Hope it will help..

[WillMilk4Coin]

Speculation is always a sticky business. As far as KnC miners are concerned, I think there was a generally surprisingly low amount of paid pre-orders that were made in the first 7 days after they opened the books. Whether or not they'll deliver in the Sept/Oct time frame they claim is a high-risk gamble, but any move into BTC is already a gamble isn't it?

Personally, I do not think it is too late. I've already got some skin in the KnC game and wouldn't be opposed to considering jumping in a little deeper on it still. While difficulty will undoubtedly skyrocket in coming months, the KnC miners (among others) should remain profitable into the 4.5 (±1) billion range and that's at current BTC value. As we watch difficulty climb at staggering rates, folks that would otherwise have interest in mining simply won't make the plunge as there'll be a large psychological hurdle to overcome and their chance to make a ROI diminishes. Yes, the window is closing quickly, but I don't think we are there yet. For my calculations, I'm looking at difficulty of about 1 billion by June of next year and 2 billion by the end of 2014. Just be responsible to determine what your risk threshold is and don't gamble more than what you can afford to lose right now and you'll be fine.

[J35st3r]

Personally, I do not think it is too late. I've already got some skin in the KnC game and wouldn't be opposed to considering jumping in a little deeper on it still. While difficulty will undoubtedly skyrocket in coming months, the KnC miners (among others) should remain profitable into the 4.5 (±1) billion range and that's at current BTC value. As we watch difficulty climb at staggering rates, folks that would otherwise have interest in mining simply won't make the plunge as there'll be a large psychological hurdle to overcome and their chance to make a ROI diminishes. Yes, the window is closing quickly, but I don't think we are there yet. For my calculations, I'm looking at difficulty of about 1 billion by June of next year and 2 billion by the end of 2014. Just be responsible to determine what your risk threshold is and don't gamble more than what you can afford to lose right now and you'll be fine.

KNCMiner is currently advertising the Jupiter as 350GHash/s for 6995USD https://www.kncminer.com/products/jupiter

From http://www.coinish.com/calc/ those numbers give $19 per day return at difficulty 1G, with breakeven in 400 days (for level difficulty).

So even if its covering its power costs at 4.5G difficulty, you'd better hope its delivered well before difficulty gets into the 1G range.

[kodo]

Yes, very, very bad idea.

[WillMilk4Coin]

Personally, I do not think it is too late. I've already got some skin in the KnC game and wouldn't be opposed to considering jumping in a little deeper on it still. While difficulty will undoubtedly skyrocket in coming months, the KnC miners (among others) should remain profitable into the 4.5 (±1) billion range and that's at current BTC value. As we watch difficulty climb at staggering rates, folks that would otherwise have interest in mining simply won't make the plunge as there'll be a large psychological hurdle to overcome and their chance to make a ROI diminishes. Yes, the window is closing quickly, but I don't think we are there yet. For my calculations, I'm looking at difficulty of about 1 billion by June of next year and 2 billion by the end of 2014. Just be responsible to determine what your risk threshold is and don't gamble more than what you can afford to lose right now and you'll be fine.

KNCMiner is currently advertising the Jupiter as 350GHash/s for 6995USD https://www.kncminer.com/products/jupiter
From http://www.coinish.com/calc/ those numbers give $19 per day return at difficulty 1G, with breakeven in 400 days (for level difficulty).
So even if its covering its power costs at 4.5G difficulty, you'd better hope its delivered well before difficulty gets into the 1G range.

Yes, I'll concur, but I'm of course going in with the expectation I'll get it well before difficulty hits 1G. Currently, we have two very bad examples of ASIC miner businesses and it is my gamble that KnC is different. It's my belief they've got the knowledge, ability and capacity to churn these things out unlike any company we've yet to see. It's really no different than determining an investment for a VC, and as such, one must also go in knowing full-well that the full investment could be lost entirely. I'll also say that 1G difficulty in exactly 1 year from now is just a little aggressively inflated estimation, imo, but a necessary one to keep expectations and risk in check.

[dwdoc]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/lv?key=0AqAo3N0d-dRndHpaa0kxeXROc3YyaHdMOUh5X0QwTVE&f=true&noheader=true&gid=10

[hummerpaskaa]

So I sent a mail to KNCminer asking when they would estimate a delivery if I placed an order today.
They responded sometime in October.

For this calc example I assumed I would get it at the last of October, or 137 days from now.
I then assumed a 2% difficulty increase per day until then, which gives me a starting difficulty of 239941346.93285772

If I now put this into http://www.coinish.com/calc/ and run it over 12 months with a 100% utlization, my estimated income is -3149.71USD
So considering this, it doesn't seem like the greatest idea anymore.

Or is there something I am not seeing?