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Author Topic: Bitcoin Must Crash - $7500 Is The Peak  (Read 1887 times)
thinair
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November 09, 2017, 05:59:33 PM
 #1

Bitcoin Price - all years
https://www.coindesk.com/price/

Many people here have a wrong concept about long term investment, that it only mean to  buy-and-hold - holding no matter what. The term investment itself implies a wise decision. The first cardinal principle of investment is:
   
Invest for profit.

I do not know how to comment on "investors" who do not care much about profit.

   Short-term Trading:
There are indeed short and long term investment. Short term investment is speculation in very volatile markets -  to make profits by buy-low and sell-high in a time span of a day or even just hours. The greater the volatility, the better it is for the such traders. But such short term trading is only for the very sharp traders - it is a zero sum game (with crypto, it should be done by bots - program trading). Short term traders do not take the risk of holding bitcoin balances; they only ride a rising market as in the past months. Thus short term trading may only be profitable in a rising market, never in a falling bear market.

   Long-term Investment:
Long term investment means to buy a commodity that holds value in the future. A proper investment implies knowing when to buy and when not to buy. Just because we "buy-and-hold" does not mean that, whenever we have some spare funds to invest, we immediately enter the market. Entering the market to buy with no timing consideration is no investment. We only invest to maximize profit and this may only be achieved when we have good timing. The second principle in investment:
   
Timing is important in successful investing.
.   
The need for timing applies even for long term investment.

Let's assume we agree that bitcoin is a good long term investment - it's value in the long term will always rise. But don't forget that nearly all commodities rise in the long term. Even prices of coal, corn and pork belly would rise in the long term because of the nature our fiat system. So, even buying bitcoin still is very dependent of timing if you "care" to make profits.

Many here think that, because bitcoin will surely have an increased value in the long term, any moment is a correct moment to buy. It is not! What if the current price of $7000  is the peak and it  crashed to a low of a $1000 in 2020. It recovers to $7000 in 2025. You'll be in the red for 8 years! That's not good long term investment! Ok, it is only a "what if".

So for these so-called long term "buy-and-hold" bitcoin purists, the question now is :
   
Is this the time to buy?
Go to the link above and see the chart for the bitcoin price for all years. You must know how to zoom in at the frame around 2014 covering the rise and crash about Dec 2013 (Mt. Gox period). The market rose from $120 to $900 and crashed back to ±$230 about 2015. Only when you zoomed in will you see the similarity between that rally and this - they are similar (only visually evident when you zoomed in because of scale difference).

This current rally is the same as the one in 2013, the only difference is the scale:
   
The current rally is an exponential rise.
All financial markets that rise exponentially will crash - even for the best of investment medium. It is almost a law of nature, just like the law of large numbers and the return to the norm.
   
This Bitcoin price of $7000 is the peak and it must crash.
   

A third cardinal principle of investment:
      
Good timing requires patience and the ability to wait for the right moment.
      
So even for long term investors, this is not the time to buy.
   
Wait!
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November 09, 2017, 06:11:33 PM
 #2

This current rally is the same as the one in 2013, the only difference is the scale:
   
The current rally is an exponential rise.
All financial markets that rise exponentially will crash - even for the best of investment medium. It is almost a law of nature, just like the law of large numbers and the return to the norm.

Without the cancellation this fork rally would have superseeded $9000 with ease. Just some days been missing.

I do wonder if there had been insider news out there, since the S2X futures had been trading on extremely low volume. Merely because only obscure sites offering them? Or ... knowledge before the event?

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November 09, 2017, 06:14:38 PM
 #3

I dont think that it will crash soon, the price has been going super bullish for more than two weeks but it does not mean that the price will crash to zero or to less than four thousand dollars again.
I think that it will still be at this rate for some more days, nobody wants to see the price going down because it is not good for all of us who are still holding some bitcoins at the moment.
Maybe it would be a good opportunity to buy, but it is not convenient at all.



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November 09, 2017, 06:39:46 PM
 #4

I dont think that it will crash soon, the price has been going super bullish for more than two weeks but it does not mean that the price will crash to zero or to less than four thousand dollars again.
I think that it will still be at this rate for some more days, nobody wants to see the price going down because it is not good for all of us who are still holding some bitcoins at the moment.
Maybe it would be a good opportunity to buy, but it is not convenient at all.
The mechanics of how a crash and a bear slide follow is this. If you have seen, the rally is exponential. Such markets is incompatible  with any short term "steady state". It must either rise sharply or fall steeply - there cannot be a side way market, say about $7000 for the next 1 month. This implies only two situations.
   
It is either rally to $12,000 or crash to $4000 in a month.

Which do you think is more likely?   
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November 09, 2017, 06:49:45 PM
 #5

I dont think that it will crash soon, the price has been going super bullish for more than two weeks but it does not mean that the price will crash to zero or to less than four thousand dollars again.
I think that it will still be at this rate for some more days, nobody wants to see the price going down because it is not good for all of us who are still holding some bitcoins at the moment.
Maybe it would be a good opportunity to buy, but it is not convenient at all.
The mechanics of how a crash and a bear slide follow is this. If you have seen, the rally is exponential. Such markets is incompatible  with any short term "steady state". It must either rise sharply or fall steeply - there cannot be a side way market, say about $7000 for the next 1 month. This implies only two situations.
   
It is either rally to $12,000 or crash to $4000 in a month.

Which do you think is more likely?   


I won't just go with the market's decision alone because demand and supply is what matters a lot and you can see yourself that the demand has risen from dust to skies which conglomerated investors to put their money into something called as the "most safe-haven ASSET" of 2017. Markets are looking for better proceedings from investors which is why we may see a "small" correction (not crash) in the next few days after which the spike that you are speaking about, will surely take place. And by the way, 7500 wasn't the peak but 7600 is the ATH for now.

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November 09, 2017, 07:34:31 PM
 #6

After the cancellation of SegWit2x, a fluctuation has been seen in the price of Bitcoin. But it is still approximately 7100$.It has become difficult to predict that whether the price will drop or rise as  no big change has been seen in the value.No doubt a rise has been seen in the altcoin market. Altcoins are getting back to their original prices.I think within this week it will be clear that whether Bitcoin will fall or rise. According to me their will be a correction which will bring  down the price to a reasonable value but their will be no crash.


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November 09, 2017, 07:58:50 PM
 #7

if you want to track bitcoin price will be crazy because it break all normal rules and always up
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November 09, 2017, 09:16:11 PM
 #8

if you want to track bitcoin price will be crazy because it break all normal rules and always up
I'll add one more principle of investment:
 
Wishful thinking and investment decision making cannot coexist.

When will bitcoin be $100,000 per BTC? Huh
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November 09, 2017, 09:24:36 PM
 #9

We are all waiting the time when we'll pay everything with bitcoin with ease, there's no sense in changing back bitcoin to fiat.

Pork belly will probably pump next years, but is difficult to store and it stinks, and if you try to send it by mail regulators will stop it.

                               
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November 09, 2017, 09:26:50 PM
 #10

It will not crash for now, we all are expecting to see bitcoin below seven thousands again in order to buy some more bitcoins, but it is not for dump purposes, we all want to keep buying more, and this is the main reason of why bitcoin will always be going up, because we all want to buy because we trust on it.
So nobody is expecting to see it "actually" going down, i mean, nobody expects to see a crash for now, so there is no need to worry because of that.
If people doesnt want it to happen, then it is not going to happen, just like it did with the segwit fork.

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November 09, 2017, 09:29:27 PM
 #11

if you want to track bitcoin price will be crazy because it break all normal rules and always up
I'll add one more principle of investment:
 
Wishful thinking and investment decision making cannot coexist.

When will bitcoin be $100,000 per BTC? Huh

I don't know what you seek to achieve by predicting the crash of bitcoin and even setting a standard that has already been surpassed. Yesterday, bitcoin reached a high level of $7800 which makes your predicted cap to not only be wrong but already defeated. With all the features and steps that you have analysed above, if there is a thing that bitcoin is fond of, its about reacting otherwise to proven and established principles like the one you have quoted.

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November 09, 2017, 09:44:45 PM
 #12

We are all waiting the time when we'll pay everything with bitcoin with ease, there's no sense in changing back bitcoin to fiat.

Pork belly will probably pump next years, but is difficult to store and it stinks, and if you try to send it by mail regulators will stop it.
Bitcoin will never and can never replace fiat:
One of the quality needed for a token to be money is that the total supply is evenly distributed among the population. Even though Bill Gates's wealth is into the billions, his personal holding of cash USD is only an miniscule  part of the total US money supply. But Bitcoin is not distributed throughout the world's population and so can never serve as money.

Bitcoin may only be a medium of speculation:
Bitcoin will only ensure more wealth transfer from the bottom 99% to the top 1%

By definition, the world of speculation means the bottom 95% of small investor will always suffer lost. In the current rally to above USD7500, these 95% will never ultimately be sitting happily with their "profits" riding the wave upwards. By definition, the correction would be a bloody for the 95%.     

It is a myth that Bitcoin is anyway near being "money". Most bitcoin enthusiasts believe fervently that we have found "the money that...bankers cannot touch" and which is the very answer and antidote for fiat money - it is not.
      Bitcoin for buy and hold is only self-delusion. The 21 millions of BTC can never be evenly distributed among the 7.6 billion of the worlds population.
 
Just this alone will ensure that Bitcoin will offer no economic benefit  to the world.
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November 09, 2017, 09:51:10 PM
 #13

It will not crash for now, we all are expecting to see bitcoin below seven thousands again in order to buy some more bitcoins, but it is not for dump purposes, we all want to keep buying more, and this is the main reason of why bitcoin will always be going up, because we all want to buy because we trust on it.
So nobody is expecting to see it "actually" going down, i mean, nobody expects to see a crash for now, so there is no need to worry because of that.
If people doesnt want it to happen, then it is not going to happen, just like it did with the segwit fork.
"...buy some more bitcoins, but it is not for dump purposes, we all want to keep buying more, ..."

If this is your reason for buying bitcoins, I have nothing more to say.
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November 09, 2017, 09:54:15 PM
 #14

if you want to track bitcoin price will be crazy because it break all normal rules and always up
I'll add one more principle of investment:
 
Wishful thinking and investment decision making cannot coexist.

When will bitcoin be $100,000 per BTC? Huh

I don't know what you seek to achieve by predicting the crash of bitcoin and even setting a standard that has already been surpassed. Yesterday, bitcoin reached a high level of $7800 which makes your predicted cap to not only be wrong but already defeated. With all the features and steps that you have analysed above, if there is a thing that bitcoin is fond of, its about reacting otherwise to proven and established principles like the one you have quoted.
" ...if there is a thing that bitcoin is fond of, its about reacting otherwise to proven and established principles like the one you have quoted."

If this is your view, I have nothing more to comment.
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November 09, 2017, 10:01:21 PM
 #15

We are all waiting the time when we'll pay everything with bitcoin with ease, there's no sense in changing back bitcoin to fiat.

Pork belly will probably pump next years, but is difficult to store and it stinks, and if you try to send it by mail regulators will stop it.
Bitcoin will never and can never replace fiat:
One of the quality needed for a token to be money is that the total supply is evenly distributed among the population. Even though Bill Gates's wealth is into the billions, his personal holding of cash USD is only an miniscule  part of the total US money supply. But Bitcoin is not distributed throughout the world's population and so can never serve as money.

Bitcoin may only be a medium of speculation:
Bitcoin will only ensure more wealth transfer from the bottom 99% to the top 1%

By definition, the world of speculation means the bottom 95% of small investor will always suffer lost. In the current rally to above USD7500, these 95% will never ultimately be sitting happily with their "profits" riding the wave upwards. By definition, the correction would be a bloody for the 95%.    

It is a myth that Bitcoin is anyway near being "money". Most bitcoin enthusiasts believe fervently that we have found "the money that...bankers cannot touch" and which is the very answer and antidote for fiat money - it is not.
      Bitcoin for buy and hold is only self-delusion. The 21 millions of BTC can never be evenly distributed among the 7.6 billion of the worlds population.
 
Just this alone will ensure that Bitcoin will offer no economic benefit  to the world.


We are all waiting the time when we'll pay everything with bitcoin with ease, there's no sense in changing back bitcoin to fiat.

Pork belly will probably pump next years, but is difficult to store and it stinks, and if you try to send it by mail regulators will stop it.
Bitcoin will never and can never replace fiat:
One of the quality needed for a token to be money is that the total supply is evenly distributed among the population. Even though Bill Gates's wealth is into the billions, his personal holding of cash USD is only an miniscule  part of the total US money supply. But Bitcoin is not distributed throughout the world's population and so can never serve as money.

Bitcoin may only be a medium of speculation:
Bitcoin will only ensure more wealth transfer from the bottom 99% to the top 1%

By definition, the world of speculation means the bottom 95% of small investor will always suffer lost. In the current rally to above USD7500, these 95% will never ultimately be sitting happily with their "profits" riding the wave upwards. By definition, the correction would be a bloody for the 95%.    

It is a myth that Bitcoin is anyway near being "money". Most bitcoin enthusiasts believe fervently that we have found "the money that...bankers cannot touch" and which is the very answer and antidote for fiat money - it is not.
      Bitcoin for buy and hold is only self-delusion. The 21 millions of BTC can never be evenly distributed among the 7.6 billion of the worlds population.
 
Just this alone will ensure that Bitcoin will offer no economic benefit  to the world.






https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Distribution_of_wealth#


Fiat not doing better

                               
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November 09, 2017, 10:32:40 PM
 #16


Of course not. It's the same distribution mechanics of knowledge, commitment and maybe some luck again. Who doesn't own fiat does not buy bitcoin.
Obtaining production capacity for manufactoring, or for mining bitcoins comes hardly any different.

The differences and most of the idealism had been present at the start merely.

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November 09, 2017, 11:02:08 PM
 #17

I think you misunderstood what I mean; it is never about distribution of wealth.

That bitcoin will never be a medium of exchange is because there is no way I can see bitcoins being distributed to people at large. It becomes money only when everyone has some in their pockets for shopping. I think this can never happen with private crypto. No token can be an efficient medium of payment without the backing by central governments. So bitcoin as we have it now will never be an efficient medium of payment.

I recently read mainstream news about a Singapore startup TenX ...about bringing the "bitcoin" experience to Singaporeans - debit cards sponsored by Visa. Its is just plain silly! Grin Adding another layer of silly complexity! Just top up your card with fiat and pay! What a "startup"!   
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November 09, 2017, 11:24:40 PM
 #18

Bitcoin must crash? Seems very imposing.
I don't think $7500 is the peak, bitcoin even reach $7800 yesterday, don't you know that?

And then 2x hard fork suspended in order to keep community together, but people's speculation divide into two groups; bitcoin will rise or bitcoin will fall. Consider current price, bitcoin seems losing its value after reach the peak, but I don't think 2x cancelation will affect its price significantly. I guess bitcoin will stand over $7000 as the new bottom line.



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November 09, 2017, 11:40:27 PM
 #19

Bitcoin must crash? Seems very imposing.
I don't think $7500 is the peak, bitcoin even reach $7800 yesterday, don't you know that?

And then 2x hard fork suspended in order to keep community together, but people's speculation divide into two groups; bitcoin will rise or bitcoin will fall. Consider current price, bitcoin seems losing its value after reach the peak, but I don't think 2x cancelation will affect its price significantly. I guess bitcoin will stand over $7000 as the new bottom line.
I am born with eyes that works in special ways - it does average and smooth things up for me instinctively Grin. I see the peak to be $7500.

The Segwit2x talk started about middle 2016 and intensified in May 2017 with the NYA. I think it is all these that cause the exponential bull rally - all media on full throttle pumping up the market for the eventual dump. Many here said they will not dump, but the manipulators will.
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November 09, 2017, 11:48:46 PM
 #20

Crash? No. Go through a correction? Yes. It's pure madness if we look at how the price has gone up in the last months. It almost seems like it has been breaking through record high after record high effortlessly.

We must however remain realistic and understand that what goes up fast, can also go down fast. Peaks most often don't last very long as they are nearly always followed up by a dive towards the Southern regions.

I am not that much interested in trading at this point, but if we do happen to see a correction take place, I will use it to increase my holdings even more as I have enough fiat aside now that I can put into action.

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