Newest scam in town!

[redtwitz]

There are 2¹⁰=1024 different possible outcomes when flipping a coin 10 times. If that coin is fair, the outcomes will be distributed proportionally to the values of the eleventh row of the Pascal triangle, that is, proportional to:

Code:

1 10 45 120 210 252 210 120 45 10 1

This means that if you repeat this game 1024 times, the expected outcome is 1 time all heads, 10 times 9 heads and 1 tail, 45 times 8 heads and 2 tails, etc.

On Rippleflip, you lose your entire bet if you get 4 heads (or whatever they call it) and 6 tails or vice versa. I agree with you that recovering half of your bet isn't exactly winning, so you also lose if you get 5 heads and 5 tails.

That means that in every game there's a chance of (210 + 252 + 210) / 1024 = 672 / 1024 = 0.65625 = 65.625 % of losing.

If you play 8 times in a row (like you did), you'll lose all 8 times with probability 0.65625⁸ = 0.03439969 = 3.439969 %. That sound unlikely, but statistically 1 out of every 1 / 0.03439969 = 29 customers will lose his first 8 games in a row.

[STT]

Probably the best answer your'll ever get.   Pascal was the Don  

Goto a local fair and the stalls are using really old laws of probability to make an easy win over you.  I remember seeing the Pascal triangle as a game several times & it wins $50 if you reach that far end  1 in 1024 chance event


I thought some sort of error in probability where it became exploitable would be the downfall of BTC somehow but apparently not so far

[Rippleflip.com]

There are 2¹⁰=1024 different possible outcomes when flipping a coin 10 times. If that coin is fair, the outcomes will be distributed proportionally to the values of the eleventh row of the Pascal triangle, that is, proportional to:

Code:

1 10 45 120 210 252 210 120 45 10 1

This means that if you repeat this game 1024 times, the expected outcome is 1 time all heads, 10 times 9 heads and 1 tail, 45 times 8 heads and 2 tails, etc.

On Rippleflip, you lose your entire bet if you get 4 heads (or whatever they call it) and 6 tails or vice versa. I agree with you that recovering half of your bet isn't exactly winning, so you also lose if you get 5 heads and 5 tails.

That means that in every game there's a chance of (210 + 252 + 210) / 1024 = 672 / 1024 = 0.65625 = 65.625 % of losing.

If you play 8 times in a row (like you did), you'll lose all 8 times with probability 0.65625⁸=0.03439969=3.439969 %. That sound unlikely, but statistically 1 out of every 1 / 0.03439969 = 29 customers will lose his first 8 games in a row.

I would like to correct you that when indeed the 5/5 wins half of the bet, the real chances for losing are 53.32%
Our house edge is ~1.85% as we've stated at Rippleflip.com. For comparison, that is lower than for example SD.

[redtwitz]

Our house edge is ~1.85% as we've stated at Rippleflip.com. For comparison, that is lower than for example SD.

I'm not arguing that. I did the math. For anyone who's interested:

Code:

Multiplicator|Probability|Expected earnings
-------------+-----------+-----------------
     17      |    2/1024 |      34/1024
      7      |   20/1024 |     140/1024
      3      |   45/1024 |     135/1024
      2      |  285/1024 |     570/1024
     1/2     |  252/1024 |     126/1024
      0      |  420/1024 |       0/1024
-------------+-----------+-----------------
     SUM       1024/1024      1005/1024

Since the expected earnings are 1005 / 1024 of your bet, the house's edge is (1024 - 1005) / 1024 = 19 / 1024 = 0.018554687 = 1.8554687 %.

I would like to correct you that when indeed the 5/5 wins half of the bet, the real chances for losing are 53.32%

The probability of losing your entire bet is 41.02 % and the probability of losing half of it is 24.61 %. Therefore, the probability of losing at least part of your bet is 65.63 %. That's all that I'm saying.

I think the math behind your 53.32 % is flawed; you're mixing probability and expected value here.

[gogxmagog]

the ponies have been scamming me for years.

[Rippleflip.com]

Our house edge is ~1.85% as we've stated at Rippleflip.com. For comparison, that is lower than for example SD.

I'm not arguing that. I did the math. For anyone who's interested:

Code:

Multiplicator|Probability|Expected earnings
-------------+-----------+-----------------
     17      |    2/1024 |      34/1024
      7      |   20/1024 |     140/1024
      3      |   45/1024 |     135/1024
      2      |  285/1024 |     570/1024
     1/2     |  252/1024 |     126/1024
      0      |  420/1024 |       0/1024
-------------+-----------+-----------------
     SUM       1024/1024      1005/1024

Since the expected earnings are 1005 / 1024 of your bet, the house's edge is (1024 - 1005) / 1024 = 19 / 1024 = 0.018554687 = 1.8554687 %.

I would like to correct you that when indeed the 5/5 wins half of the bet, the real chances for losing are 53.32%

The probability of losing your entire bet is 41.02 % and the probability of losing half of it is 24.61 %. Therefore, the probability of losing at least part of your bet is 65.63 %. That's all that I'm saying.

I think the math behind your 53.32 % is flawed; you're mixing probability and expected value here.

You're correct.

[MPOE-PR]

Our house edge is ~1.85% as we've stated at Rippleflip.com. For comparison, that is lower than for example SD.

I'm not arguing that. I did the math. For anyone who's interested:

Code:

Multiplicator|Probability|Expected earnings
-------------+-----------+-----------------
     17      |    2/1024 |      34/1024
      7      |   20/1024 |     140/1024
      3      |   45/1024 |     135/1024
      2      |  285/1024 |     570/1024
     1/2     |  252/1024 |     126/1024
      0      |  420/1024 |       0/1024
-------------+-----------+-----------------
     SUM       1024/1024      1005/1024

Since the expected earnings are 1005 / 1024 of your bet, the house's edge is (1024 - 1005) / 1024 = 19 / 1024 = 0.018554687 = 1.8554687 %.

I would like to correct you that when indeed the 5/5 wins half of the bet, the real chances for losing are 53.32%

The probability of losing your entire bet is 41.02 % and the probability of losing half of it is 24.61 %. Therefore, the probability of losing at least part of your bet is 65.63 %. That's all that I'm saying.

I think the math behind your 53.32 % is flawed; you're mixing probability and expected value here.

So exactly what is the scam, I don't get it. Your chances to lose your first 5000 state lottery tickets are pretty good, does this make the state lottery a scam?

(Not that it isn't a scam, but not for this reason.)