...AND THE BOTTOM IS...

[notme]

I answered the question in the poll.  The I read the OP.  Those questions have different answers.  Which one should I be responding to?

While I may be able to make a decent guess at the bottom, I will rarely be exactly right.  I will be buying all along the way.

[conspirosphere.tk]

I answered the question in the poll.  The I read the OP.  Those questions have different answers.  Which one should I be responding to?

While I may be able to make a decent guess at the bottom, I will rarely be exactly right.  I will be buying all along the way.

You have a point: the title is objective and the poll subjective.
But that is how polls work: they make subjective questions to deduct "objective" conclusions.
 
The reason is to try to get a more accurate picture if the answers are honest, since anyone can guess anything, but he can say with much more certainty what he is going to do.

On a second thought an even better question about the bottom in a bear market could have been: "at what price would you stop selling BTC", since "would you buy at X price" seems more useful to find the top in a bull market.  

[torbank]

[Jozzaboy]

I think we are just at the beginning of 'Sell!'.

I'm not seeing market capitulation here, there is still hope.

[vokain]

I think we are just at the beginning of 'Sell!'.

I'm not seeing market capitulation here, there is still hope.

For what reason would we capitulate, give that we already have before (twice, more perhaps?)
it's not like there's no light at the end of the tunnel, the fact that we've survived the last ones has conditioned us. We know there's light at the end of the tunnel, contrast this to the first time we had to deal with this, from 32->2. Capitulation will be briefer and briefer until this market matures. we're focusing too hard on the bubble of 2011 and forgetting the other capitulations we had before, such as in August of 2012.

[shmadz]

I'm not an expert at anything. It's Saturday night after the bar and I might be drunk. I might not even understand what I'm writing and I have no data to back up my thoughts, but here they are anyways..

My feeling is that we are approaching a massive sell-off in all markets. Cash will be king, for a while. Perhaps bitcoin will be a form of cash during this time, perhaps not.

For a short time, there will be some incredible opportunities to buy certain commodities, companies, or properties, at extremely low prices as people are forced to sell almost everything they own simply to feed their families.

The problem I see happening is that people will expect a recovery, a return to 'normal'. I don't think most people realize that what we have been experiencing over the last 30+ years; what most people think is 'normal' is simply massive inflation and debt accumulation and this is not sustainable.



This party is going to end. The music will stop. All that will be left is the scrambling for chairs.



"Remember democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide." - John Adams.

[Jozzaboy]

I'm not an expert at anything. It's Saturday night after the bar and I might be drunk. I might not even understand what I'm writing and I have no data to back up my thoughts, but here they are anyways..

My feeling is that we are approaching a massive sell-off in all markets. Cash will be king, for a while. Perhaps bitcoin will be a form of cash during this time, perhaps not.

For a short time, there will be some incredible opportunities to buy certain commodities, companies, or properties, at extremely low prices as people are forced to sell almost everything they own simply to feed their families.

The problem I see happening is that people will expect a recovery, a return to 'normal'. I don't think most people realize that what we have been experiencing over the last 30+ years; what most people think is 'normal' is simply massive inflation and debt accumulation and this is not sustainable.



This party is going to end. The music will stop. All that will be left is the scrambling for chairs.



"Remember democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide." - John Adams.

Aye, it is a good time to own physical, tradable goods. We are seeing a rally in the USD while people cash out of other currencies to the world reserve but devaluation of the USD is a mathematical certainty.

[kresu]

I would say $20 will be the bottom.

There is my math:
$32 = $2 * 16
$266 = $16.6 * 16

But $20 could be a strong psychological barrier before reaching $16-17.
And it will be a long long way down there, I'd say 6 months from now, full of smaller retraces and false trend reversals.

[wonkytonky]

NO

[Itcher]

Someone here said 50 $ ... Yea, I think around $ 50 something will happen. A lot of people will buy - "cheap coins" - and price will rise. But somewhere, maybe around 100, uptrend will stop and they realize, that this is not the next big rising. So: they sell, making some profit, and price goes down. And than there will be no fight about the 50, it will break and go down ...

[Dalib]

Someone here said 50 $ ... Yea, I think around $ 50 something will happen. A lot of people will buy - "cheap coins" - and price will rise. But somewhere, maybe around 100, uptrend will stop and they realize, that this is not the next big rising. So: they sell, making some profit, and price goes down. And than there will be no fight about the 50, it will break and go down ...

Even this is possible.
If theoretically all Bitcoin MtGOx today to sell at any price (which will not happen), we get for $ 50.
Then would temporarily increase the price.
But if even then the offer will be higher than the demand will drop again.

That is why it is so difficult and risky to catch a falling knife...

[DoomDumas]

My guess 60 will be the ultimate bottom... slowly toward 60 in the next year, then up to 2000 !

[tarmi]

Someone here said 50 $ ... Yea, I think around $ 50 something will happen. A lot of people will buy - "cheap coins" - and price will rise. But somewhere, maybe around 100, uptrend will stop and they realize, that this is not the next big rising. So: they sell, making some profit, and price goes down. And than there will be no fight about the 50, it will break and go down ...

Didnt that already happen when the price dropped from 266 to 50 and then went to 100~130?

[Wekkel]

Be smart. Only below $30 it is attractive to add to current supply.

[Crypt_Current]

bottom has probably already been hit.  I think big players are artificially keeping price down so their big time friends can get in at the "best lowest price"

I really don't see any dramatic drops to say < $30, simply because there's too many people expecting it.  Circumstances surrounding this correction are way different than the June 2011 bubble; expecting a correction anywhere near that dramatic is foolish IMHO.

[Wagner2014]

bottom has probably already been hit.  I think big players are artificially keeping price down so their big time friends can get in at the "best lowest price"

I really don't see any dramatic drops to say < $30, simply because there's too many people expecting it.  Circumstances surrounding this correction are way different than the June 2011 bubble; expecting a correction anywhere near that dramatic is foolish IMHO.

"Big players" could easily drive the price down to single digits. There is not a large supply of coins or a lot of liquidity. That's one of the dangers of holding bitcoins at the moment -- price manipulation. Over time that will change hopefully.

[vokain]

bottom has probably already been hit.  I think big players are artificially keeping price down so their big time friends can get in at the "best lowest price"

I really don't see any dramatic drops to say < $30, simply because there's too many people expecting it.  Circumstances surrounding this correction are way different than the June 2011 bubble; expecting a correction anywhere near that dramatic is foolish IMHO.

"Big players" could easily drive the price down to single digits. There is not a large supply of coins or a lot of liquidity. That's one of the dangers of holding bitcoins at the moment -- price manipulation. Over time that will change hopefully.

But they won't because of the risk of not being able to buy back in for less than they sold and recovering their stake. Other "big players" are waiting to eat those guys up, given the right circumstances. You must be new around here

[Wagner2014]

bottom has probably already been hit.  I think big players are artificially keeping price down so their big time friends can get in at the "best lowest price"

I really don't see any dramatic drops to say < $30, simply because there's too many people expecting it.  Circumstances surrounding this correction are way different than the June 2011 bubble; expecting a correction anywhere near that dramatic is foolish IMHO.

"Big players" could easily drive the price down to single digits. There is not a large supply of coins or a lot of liquidity. That's one of the dangers of holding bitcoins at the moment -- price manipulation. Over time that will change hopefully.

But they won't because of the risk of not being able to buy back in for less than they sold and recovering their stake. Other "big players" are waiting to eat those guys up, given the right circumstances. You must be new around here

A lot of assumptions there.

[tokeweed]

answer:  who the hell knows. no one could predict these things, even the 'experts'. all one can do is to make a calculated guess.

[ChrisJ]

I think we're aiming at $25. Too much Hopium keeping the price up, people dreaming of financial independence. But dreams don't come true without hard work and there are too many people sitting out on the sidelines and just speculating rather than working to invent the future we deserve.