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Author Topic: Bitcoin vs. Gold Prices  (Read 1828 times)
BobK71
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November 28, 2017, 06:05:33 PM
 #1

The last time I did this analysis, gold was a thousand times more expensive than Bitcoin, if we compare the same proportions of total supply.  By now, Bitcoin has risen 30-fold, and so gold is only 30 times more expensive.

Of course, I was roundly dismissed for speculating Bitcoin could get anywhere near a six-figure price in dollars.  If I was criticized for being too bullish on Bitcoin, today I might be seen as too bullish on gold.

How to answer the question -- where to from here?  As I wrote recently, gold is objectively a better money for securing savers' freedom from governments and central banks.  So, if the long-term price ratio is 10 to 1 in favor of gold, Bitcoin can still go up 3 times.  It'd still be a great return by the standards of any asset, but Bitcoin is not quite as compelling as it used to be.

Especially, many early owners of Bitcoin, now flush with capital, who are also sympathetic to gold, might decide to sell some Bitcoin and buy gold at these prices.

We have to be careful here.  This entire analysis was based on the (pretty common) assumption that governments and central banks have nothing to do with gold and Bitcoin prices, and that the future of Bitcoin is to be another limited-supply monetary asset like gold, but at an appropriate relative price.  (The reality, at least with gold prices, is of course the opposite.)

So, the real question is what the Western elites want (and what China and Russia want, if they're able to counter the West in the field of monetary engineering.)  If Western debt levels and resulting economic/social/political problems are so bad that the elites have decided to use cryptocurrency to effect a reset of the entire system, to effectively wipe out their debt and start afresh, as just after World War II, then the sky is the limit for Bitcoin and cryptos.

If, on the other hand, the Western elites are only preparing for such a reset by taking advantage of cheap crypto prices so far, then we have to watch the relative price to gold.  The rise of Bitcoin, so far, is consistent with this scenario too.  From here on, our thinking might have to change.

For the answer to that question, watch the news closely for the signs!
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November 28, 2017, 06:23:10 PM
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It seems to me that if bitcoin is used for debt forgiveness it can do only Americans. I doubt that they will ever be able to give 20 trillion of its foreign debt. But for this they need a capitalization of bitcoin is still very much to increase. We have time to get rich. After the capitalization of bitcoin will reach the debt America I will sell your coins.
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November 28, 2017, 08:37:23 PM
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Steve Wozniak (apple co founder) said something interesting in an interview recently. He said humanity will invent better and more efficient methods to harvest gold from the earth's crust. Bitcoin's algorithmic method of limiting its own production has superior chances of maintaining a constant rate of supply.

The real test of gold is whether society can realistically revert to a gold standard in cases of emergency. If a zombie apocalypse occurred tomorrow, would gold emerge as a preferred coin of exchange across remnants of civilization? There are clips on youtube where people walk the streets attempting to sell $1,000 of gold or silver for $50. No one takes them up on it. The concept of gold and its value as a currency may be too neglected within the public eye to be an emergent currency in times of distress. Not only is support for gold exchange non-existent, its utility as a means of exchange may be a lost lore similar to the recipe for making roman concrete or damascus steel.

Golds best hope may be a form of gold renaissance, a resurgence of interest driven by fears relating to fiat hyperinflation. This is occurring in some circles. Preppers, doomsdayers and post apocalyptic planners are all stocking up on precious metals. What gold lacks in bling power and excitement it could more than make up for in endurance.

From my posts on this forum, it might be obvious I favor bitcoin over gold. But even I don't forget gold was here millennia before anyone knew what bitcoin was, and may be around millennia after bitcoin is lost and forgotten.

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November 28, 2017, 10:31:45 PM
 #4

Gold is better for most "securing savers" but the reasons are not only to be safe from governments and central banks. it's also to secure the funds against the currency losing value.

See this chart https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1xM3 and notice the difference between Clinton economy and the Bush Jr debt disaster.( I am not a US citizens so can be wrong but Clinton made the US economy far better to what it used to be before, he helped a lot.)
See after 2001 (Bush) a long 15 years growing period for gold while the US debt started to become a nightmare (oh it was already but Bush just helped to be sure lol)

No matter if the countries are from West or East, the national debt has a worldwide citizenship lol. A financial reset is totally possible

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November 29, 2017, 01:38:51 PM
 #5

It seems to me that if bitcoin is used for debt forgiveness it can do only Americans. I doubt that they will ever be able to give 20 trillion of its foreign debt. But for this they need a capitalization of bitcoin is still very much to increase. We have time to get rich. After the capitalization of bitcoin will reach the debt America I will sell your coins.

If a reset is coming, what they have in mind is not debt forgiveness.  It's inflation.  If a dollar can only buy 1/3 of what it used to, then, effectively 2/3 of all debt in dollars has been wiped out.

After cryptos go sky high, there are many ways to get inflation.  One simple example is to have the central bank own a lot of crypto (most likely CBs have been buying so far,) so the dollar-crypto exchange rate can be kept stable (at that rate) by CB selling of crypto when necessary.  With this in place, the CB can print a lot of money and still keep the system stable, just as under the 'gold standard.'

Any way they do it, the simple math is that when there's so much more money in the economy (by way of newly valuable cryptos,) inflation is bound to happen.

Now they don't like to do this often, if they can help it, since it's bad for the dollar's reputation.  The last time this happened was the 1970s.  Also, in the past, gold had to go up a lot during these times -- making it doubly bad for the dollar's good name.  The magic of cryptos is that the elites can claim people are just running to a brand new type of money, and not necessarily away from dollars and euro.  (The truth is that the top Western elites have been responsible for the rise of cryptos.)

So the whole thing can be seen as a transfer of wealth from creditors to debtors.  The modern world system, run by the state-bank alliance, is essentially a 'promise machine' where promises are doomed to be broken from day one.  While the values of the promises last, the elites benefit by issuing a lot of them.  When it becomes clear they can't be kept, the elites might try to keep up appearances for now, but eventually, one way or another, the breaking of promises has to be acknowledged, just so the world can get back to normal business.
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November 29, 2017, 01:55:42 PM
 #6

Bitcoin price movement is more significant than the price of gold which is an investment commodity that has existed since long. But in this increasingly modern era investors are turning to bitcoin where these commodities are based on blockchain technology and gold is now beginning to be abandoned by some investors.

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November 29, 2017, 03:23:44 PM
 #7

I saw a news clip just yesterday where they were discussing the future of Bitcoin. One person on the panel stated that he doesn’t see a reason why Bitcoin can’t achieve a market cap similar to gold. He admitted that the big increases in value of Bitcoin make him nervous for a correction but he said that there is plenty of room for growth if people view Bitcoin as digital gold.

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November 29, 2017, 03:55:35 PM
 #8


Quote
Bitcoin can still go up 3 times


Thats the answer to your question and the ambiguous situation where you whether bitcoin is better than gold or not. Yes in general that what I think you speculating here and I think bitcoin will surpass all its limits in the next year and so on. It has already ended all the bullish trend of the government securing the prices on gold and/or anything that is centralised really. This is because we have the option now, who crypto currencies!


So people will now understand the importance of bitcoin and other currencies which are decentralised and will start making the positive assumptions about it in the future and now. We have already seen the exclusive performance of the bitcoin and this has led us to experience the greater prices now a days.


Now is the time we should escape the centralised investment and store assets, because we have completely secure and proven decentralised system in the form of bitcoin.


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November 29, 2017, 04:42:04 PM
 #9

So, the real question is what the Western elites want (and what China and Russia want, if they're able to counter the West in the field of monetary engineering.)  If Western debt levels and resulting economic/social/political problems are so bad that the elites have decided to use cryptocurrency to effect a reset of the entire system, to effectively wipe out their debt and start afresh, as just after World War II, then the sky is the limit for Bitcoin and cryptos.

If, on the other hand, the Western elites are only preparing for such a reset by taking advantage of cheap crypto prices so far, then we have to watch the relative price to gold.  The rise of Bitcoin, so far, is consistent with this scenario too.  From here on, this assumption may be problematic.

This question becomes my concern a few months ago when bitcoin started to gain a tremendous value within weeks.
Whoever invests Million of dollars into crypto-world at the cheaper price could harm its price after it reaches the peak, especially at this point, due to bitcoin price increase rapidly like $1000 per day. It won't stop soon imo as bitcoin futures still not activated, but when the correction comes, it may hit the market so hard. The only thing that may hold bitcoin price is people who believe in bitcoin as an asset, commodity, currency, or a better monetary system compare to fiat currency. At least, Million of dollars have been spent in this market, people don't want to lose their investment, especially for miners and exchanges.

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November 29, 2017, 05:46:26 PM
 #10

Gold ! What's that ? This is what is going to happen soon when people will actually stop talking about gold and will just talk about Bitcoin. Even newspapers will stop printing prices of gold and start printing the daily prices of Bitcoin. This day is not far as I can see Bitcoin is growing alot . Infact alot more than what was expected this year.

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November 30, 2017, 08:01:01 PM
 #11

Steve Wozniak (apple co founder) said something interesting in an interview recently. He said humanity will invent better and more efficient methods to harvest gold from the earth's crust. Bitcoin's algorithmic method of limiting its own production has superior chances of maintaining a constant rate of supply.

The real test of gold is whether society can realistically revert to a gold standard in cases of emergency. If a zombie apocalypse occurred tomorrow, would gold emerge as a preferred coin of exchange across remnants of civilization? There are clips on youtube where people walk the streets attempting to sell $1,000 of gold or silver for $50. No one takes them up on it. The concept of gold and its value as a currency may be too neglected within the public eye to be an emergent currency in times of distress. Not only is support for gold exchange non-existent, its utility as a means of exchange may be a lost lore similar to the recipe for making roman concrete or damascus steel.

Golds best hope may be a form of gold renaissance, a resurgence of interest driven by fears relating to fiat hyperinflation. This is occurring in some circles. Preppers, doomsdayers and post apocalyptic planners are all stocking up on precious metals. What gold lacks in bling power and excitement it could more than make up for in endurance.

From my posts on this forum, it might be obvious I favor bitcoin over gold. But even I don't forget gold was here millennia before anyone knew what bitcoin was, and may be around millennia after bitcoin is lost and forgotten.

My assumption is usually that we might have a systemic crisis or collapse, but not an apocalyptic scenario.  Sorry if I didn't make it clear.  (That is, property and contractual rights are still enforced, but confidence is lost in fiat money.)  In fact, here I'm assuming we either won't reach crisis point for now, or the elites are engineering a preventive inflation (using cryptos) so we'll never get there for the foreseeable future.

As Jim Rickards always says, the elites can always have a gold standard that's stable (and indeed prosperous IMO); it's just a matter of what price of gold.  (All of the gold-as-deflationary-monster talk from economists are based on cases of trying to maintain an old price of gold that is too low for the new circumstances.)

If I walked around trying to sell 1 ounce gold coins for $50, I doubt anyone would trust me.

But I agree that you never know when society will simply 'forget' a money.  Money is just a standard, even if certain basic properties are required before something can become money.  I don't however think we're at that point with gold and silver, especially since they're the only monies secured by physics.

A lot of what you would think of as supply and demand based on what people want is actually heavily manipulated by the elites, over the long term.  For example, when it suited the global imperial elites to promote gold and demote silver, starting in the 1870s, silver has been outshone by gold ever since.  This, knowing that silver is actually a better form of money (since gold would have to move around in tiny quantities for everyday use.)
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November 30, 2017, 08:23:14 PM
 #12

Gold ! What's that ? This is what is going to happen soon when people will actually stop talking about gold and will just talk about Bitcoin. Even newspapers will stop printing prices of gold and start printing the daily prices of Bitcoin. This day is not far as I can see Bitcoin is growing alot . Infact alot more than what was expected this year.

I still think a lot of crypto geeks are in for a big wake up call.

Countries, the elite, central banks and mega rich all back gold not bitcoin.  When bitcoin becomes any more than a minor irritation to them they will come down on it hard. 

Banks run the world not governments, if they see crypto as a tangible threat to their power and control they will have an orchestrated clamp down across borders killing the price overnight.

I also think we are getting closer to this tipping point, my estimate is 1-2 years max.

Time will tell.





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December 01, 2017, 12:03:07 AM
 #13

This question becomes my concern a few months ago when bitcoin started to gain a tremendous value within weeks.
Whoever invests Million of dollars into crypto-world at the cheaper price could harm its price after it reaches the peak, especially at this point, due to bitcoin price increase rapidly like $1000 per day. It won't stop soon imo as bitcoin futures still not activated, but when the correction comes, it may hit the market so hard. The only thing that may hold bitcoin price is people who believe in bitcoin as an asset, commodity, currency, or a better monetary system compare to fiat currency. At least, Million of dollars have been spent in this market, people don't want to lose their investment, especially for miners and exchanges.

With any other asset class, I would agree with you.  The fast rise would be a problem.

With Bitcoin, which claims to be money and occupy the central part of the system, I think things are different.  If the elites promote it to be their new monetary base (which I think has a good chance of being true at this point,) it will have lots of room to go further.

As I mentioned, this is not a sure thing yet, but at these price levels, I believe Bitcoin is still a good bet.
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December 02, 2017, 12:31:56 PM
 #14

So, the real question is what the Western elites want (and what China and Russia want, if they're able to counter the West in the field of monetary engineering.)  If Western debt levels and resulting economic/social/political problems are so bad that the elites have decided to use cryptocurrency to effect a reset of the entire system, to effectively wipe out their debt and start afresh, as just after World War II, then the sky is the limit for Bitcoin and cryptos.

If, on the other hand, the Western elites are only preparing for such a reset by taking advantage of cheap crypto prices so far, then we have to watch the relative price to gold.  The rise of Bitcoin, so far, is consistent with this scenario too.  From here on, this assumption may be problematic.

This question becomes my concern a few months ago when bitcoin started to gain a tremendous value within weeks.
Whoever invests Million of dollars into crypto-world at the cheaper price could harm its price after it reaches the peak, especially at this point, due to bitcoin price increase rapidly like $1000 per day. It won't stop soon imo as bitcoin futures still not activated, but when the correction comes, it may hit the market so hard. The only thing that may hold bitcoin price is people who believe in bitcoin as an asset, commodity, currency, or a better monetary system compare to fiat currency. At least, Million of dollars have been spent in this market, people don't want to lose their investment, especially for miners and exchanges.
Gold was used in the old days to earn money now we have bitcoin and it has more potential to give its investor huge and secondly gold investors are not now in huge amount everyone here is now wanting to earn money in smaller time span and this desire of people is giving bitcoin use a push and those who heard about it are now investing into it after seeing the practical results of bitcoin and gold is now an ancient way.

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BobK71
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December 06, 2017, 05:39:49 PM
 #15

It has already ended all the bullish trend of the government securing the prices on gold and/or anything that is centralised really. This is because we have the option now, who crypto currencies!

One of the major points I want to bring across is, don't be fooled: key financial assets, including cryptos and other forms of money, are heavily controlled by the elites.  Bitcoin is doing well because it's in the elites' interest.  Has always been this way, and will always be.

That is, until the public truly wakes up.

For example, it's been circulating in the media that Bitcoin's rise is helped by conditions in Venezuela and Zimbabwe.  Their state money is so heavily abused by the government-bank system that the citizens look for a decentralized store of value -- hence the appeal of Bitcoin.  The trouble with this narrative is that, gold and silver are equally decentralized (and arguably much easier to use for poor people.)  Why aren't they going up?  Ah, you see, the elites want to promote Bitcoin, but not gold and silver, at this point.
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December 06, 2017, 06:19:30 PM
 #16

simple answer bitcoin better because you can save 1M with smimple hardware wallet but need to pay 1000$ to save 1M gold
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December 06, 2017, 11:11:31 PM
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My assumption is usually that we might have a systemic crisis or collapse, but not an apocalyptic scenario.  Sorry if I didn't make it clear.  (That is, property and contractual rights are still enforced, but confidence is lost in fiat money.)  In fact, here I'm assuming we either won't reach crisis point for now, or the elites are engineering a preventive inflation (using cryptos) so we'll never get there for the foreseeable future.

As Jim Rickards always says, the elites can always have a gold standard that's stable (and indeed prosperous IMO); it's just a matter of what price of gold.  (All of the gold-as-deflationary-monster talk from economists are based on cases of trying to maintain an old price of gold that is too low for the new circumstances.)

If I walked around trying to sell 1 ounce gold coins for $50, I doubt anyone would trust me.

But I agree that you never know when society will simply 'forget' a money.  Money is just a standard, even if certain basic properties are required before something can become money.  I don't however think we're at that point with gold and silver, especially since they're the only monies secured by physics.

A lot of what you would think of as supply and demand based on what people want is actually heavily manipulated by the elites, over the long term.  For example, when it suited the global imperial elites to promote gold and demote silver, starting in the 1870s, silver has been outshone by gold ever since.  This, knowing that silver is actually a better form of money (since gold would have to move around in tiny quantities for everyday use.)

That's a good assessment. I think that if modern markets supported gold as a legal method of buying/selling goods and services, its price would rise. The value of precious metals would increase if they had additional utility and greater support.

What might be cool is if someone started a service where gold could be deposited at a physical location in exchange for something similar to a debit card. I think the value of precious metals might skyrocket if they had that type of modern infrastructure which made them functional and a valid means of executing transactions.

The overall practice of identifying precious metals, purifying them, weighing them and chipping bits away to get a precise amount required to make a transaction could all be digitized and standardized which would allow them to be more competitive against fiat/crypto.

It may not be viable in a large country like the united states but a small island nation like vanatu might be able to implement the practice. In a way I'm surprised no one has done this before (that I know of) it seems like a logical area to tap.

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December 06, 2017, 11:25:49 PM
 #18

The recent i think bitcoin is higher price than gold. Gold is like old money investment that can hide tax from government.
With bitcoin we can do the same because bitcoin is not legalized yet.
And bitcoin has bigger potential for investors to get high return.

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December 07, 2017, 05:52:42 AM
 #19

The recent i think bitcoin is higher price than gold. Gold is like old money investment that can hide tax from government.
With bitcoin we can do the same because bitcoin is not legalized yet.
And bitcoin has bigger potential for investors to get high return.
i agree with you, my opinion bitcoin price is higher than gold, and i am invest in bitcoin will more profitable and and the price rise up quickly.
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December 07, 2017, 06:03:56 AM
 #20

bitcoin compared to the current price of gold is really very different, bitcoin price reached nearly $ 13k times more than the current price.

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