I predict BTC/USD will fall to $2 by December 31, 2013

[MAbtc]

People are getting even more bearish than our resident bear-troll, Jaroslaw. Interesting times!

Why do I see attempts to manipulate the price in many posts... Am I paranoiac, or is it a coordinated action?

Why manipulation? Why coordinated? Bulls is crazy -- always scratching their head and posting things like, "I can't figure it out, why is the price going down?"

[Spaceman_Spiff]

i agreee maybe nut 2$ but 5$ for sure

Want to bet on that?

[Jaroslaw]

technical analists

[chufchuf]

has the OP been testing some shrooms at Atlantis, oh man

[jamesc760]

No, I don't do shrooms, just a bowl of cold water. Lots of people are starting to panic now that it does look like bitcoin is on a long term slide. I just based my prediction based on the fact that this recent downturn is the result of asic miners dumping their mined coins en masse. They won't stop until they have driven the value to the dirt floor. Even at $2, the asic miners will keep on running their machines. That is the future I have seen in my bowl of cold water.

[jamesc760]

every week for the past month, btc value has been falling by $10US, and extrapolating it to the next few weeks gives me the following;


July 10 -- $70

July 17 -- $60

July 24 -- $50

,
,
,
August 21 -- $10

Once the $10 firewall is breeched, the race to $2 will happen in a few days.

Thus, by the end of August 2013, it will be $2 or less.

PS: I am neither an expert nor a psychic. Think of me as a devils advocate.

[MAbtc]

Even at $2, the asic miners will keep on running their machines.

^^^ This is your problem, right here.

[xavier]

Its nice to finally see someone that isn't doing drugs, and think that we're going to hit $1k or $1M.

+1

Probably even lower than that.

Overall, my outlook is bearish these days. The price will fall for a while - I've accepted it.

But every time I see people talking about the price falling below $2/coin, I wonder what's going on inside their brains.

Compare today's world to the world of late 2011. The USD/BTC rate had only spiked once, followed by a long and depressing bear-market, and there was a good chance that over-$10/coin was a one-time thing, an accident never to come again. Other than Silk Road, there was very little you could do with BTC.

In that world, in a world where a good argument could be made that Bitcoin was on its way out, the exchange rate tested $2/coin in enormous volume, and $2/coin proved itself sound.

If $2/coin was an impenetrable wall of value-confidence back then, what on earth could break that value-confidence today, in a world where high BTC prices have come twice ("and why not again?"), in a world where there are institutional investors dipping their toes into the market, in a world where you can buy food and shelter with your bitcoins?

I'm bearish, sure. It's my guess (granted, one that I refuse to trust, or else I'd be shorting like mad) that the bottom will be somewhere in the $11-30 range, which is way lower than what we have today. But barring something that shatters the Bitcoin network itself, I do not think that we will see $1.95/coin again.

+1

[BitcoinAshley]

BTC value has been dropping steadily. Bad news for Winklevoss twins. So, I am predicting it will fall all the down to $2 range by the end of this year.

Probably even lower than that.

Overall, my outlook is bearish these days. The price will fall for a while - I've accepted it.

But every time I see people talking about the price falling below $2/coin, I wonder what's going on inside their brains.

Compare today's world to the world of late 2011. The USD/BTC rate had only spiked once, followed by a long and depressing bear-market, and there was a good chance that over-$10/coin was a one-time thing, an accident never to come again. Other than Silk Road, there was very little you could do with BTC.

In that world, in a world where a good argument could be made that Bitcoin was on its way out, the exchange rate tested $2/coin in enormous volume, and $2/coin proved itself sound.

If $2/coin was an impenetrable wall of value-confidence back then, what on earth could break that value-confidence today, in a world where high BTC prices have come twice ("and why not again?"), in a world where there are institutional investors dipping their toes into the market, in a world where you can buy food and shelter with your bitcoins?

I'm bearish, sure. It's my guess (granted, one that I refuse to trust, or else I'd be shorting like mad) that the bottom will be somewhere in the $11-30 range, which is way lower than what we have today. But barring something that shatters the Bitcoin network itself, I do not think that we will see $1.95/coin again.

Quoted 4 Trufe.

[phillipsjk]

If the price drops below $5, I will consider taking out loans to buy up as much BTC as I can.

I would be surprised it the price dips below 60 for any extended period of time.

[gmaki]

every week for the past month, btc value has been falling by $10US, and extrapolating it to the next few weeks gives me the following;


July 10 -- $70

July 17 -- $60

July 24 -- $50

,
,
,
August 21 -- $10

Once the $10 firewall is breeched, the race to $2 will happen in a few days.

Thus, by the end of August 2013, it will be $2 or less.

PS: I am neither an expert nor a psychic. Think of me as a devils advocate.

I agree with your analysis as I came up with $2 as well. However the one thing I think you are missing is increasing difficulty of mining which sets the bottom price higher. Yes ASIC is driving price to that floor, but it is also driving difficulty up at the same time.

Right now I have them converging at $20, but it doesn't matter it will be easy to calculate when it gets there... whatever price it is. That is when to buy.

Better yet I am thinking of purchasing whatever the most efficient miner is at that time (assuming it can be shipped immediately) and either buying or mining based on the KW/GH ratio advantage at any given time.

[exxe]

every week for the past month, btc value has been falling by $10US, and extrapolating it to the next few weeks gives me the following;


July 10 -- $70

July 17 -- $60

July 24 -- $50

,
,
,
August 21 -- $10

Once the $10 firewall is breeched, the race to $2 will happen in a few days.

Thus, by the end of August 2013, it will be $2 or less.

PS: I am neither an expert nor a psychic. Think of me as a devils advocate.

 

[inspiredinvestor]

Does this mean LTC will be worth more than BTC in August??? 

[cbeast]

Yep all those people that invested millions into Bitcoin development and holdings will just allow their investment to fail.

[Coinseeker]

Yep all those people that invested millions into Bitcoin development and holdings will just allow their investment to fail.

What choice do they have?  Are they going to buy up all the coins?  Spend them all by themselves?  The difference between investors and die hard bitcoiners is, investors know when to cut their losses and move on.  Diehard bitcoiners will go down with the ship, in pure denial.  That's either admirably courageous or dumb as hell.  Let each person decide for themselves.

[jamesc760]

lol on the cartoon above. which reminds to add


I am neither an expert, a psychic, nor a statistian.

[Fiyasko]

Thanks!  I will wait until then to buy.  Thanks again for all this valuable information.

Put a bet up or shutup, ...

JackRabiit:  850+ activity.  Wow.

Wait what? Thats a noteworthy amount?

[BurtW]

Thanks!  I will wait until then to buy.  Thanks again for all this valuable information.

Put a bet up or shutup, ...

JackRabiit:  850+ activity.  Wow.

Wait what? Thats a noteworthy amount?

Take a look around.  It is the highest value I have seen.

[Fiyasko]

Thanks!  I will wait until then to buy.  Thanks again for all this valuable information.

Put a bet up or shutup, ...

JackRabiit:  850+ activity.  Wow.

Wait what? Thats a noteworthy amount?

Take a look around.  It is the highest value I have seen.

Oh holy shizzle!, I might even be here so often that i could become a moderator!, Woah!
Only people like Theymos have a activity count as high as mine. Gosh!

[bitcoinator]

Sorry, what is activity? I see I have activity always the same as post count, but what is it?