I predict BTC/USD will fall to $2 by December 31, 2013

[jamesc760]

BTC value has been dropping steadily. Bad news for Winklevoss twins. So, I am predicting it will fall all the down to $2 range by the end of this year.

[gmaki]

BTC value has been dropping steadily. Bad news for Winklevoss twins. So, I am predicting it will fall all the down to $2 range by the end of this year.

That's interesting. I came up with exactly the same value ($2.00) using some admittedly very rough (and relatively uninformed) back of the envelope math. DISCLOSURE: I am a total newb to BC.

However I estimated that as the current true value of BC given the state of ASIC mining, but don't think it will actually get to that level since the same forces that will be driving the value down will also be driving the difficulty up at the same time. Thus, I came up with the two factors converging at $20.00 and I am using that as my floor. Well a little below that because it should overshoot it's bottom just due to momentum.

I think I will start buying some below $20, definitely better than attempting to mine them.

[rayfloyd]

According to your "predictions" backed by "real data", what will the price of litecoin be at the same time?

[Hyena]

Litcoin will also crash down to 2$ per LTC. In fact, all the CCs crash down to 2$

[Fiyasko]

Put a bet up or shutup, if you're correct you have nothing to fear and bitcoins to gain.
If you're wrong then you get to feel the pain of making a stupid guess and wasting our time.

[BurtW]

Thanks!  I will wait until then to buy.  Thanks again for all this valuable information.

Put a bet up or shutup, ...

JackRabiit:  850+ activity.  Wow.

[rayfloyd]

Litcoin will also crash down to 2$ per LTC. In fact, all the CCs crash down to 2$

Irrefutable logic. I bow down to your greatness.

[N12]

Brought to you by 1/reptilia.

[Jaroslaw]

i agreee maybe nut 2$ but 5$ for sure

[Ivanhoe]

BTC value has been dropping steadily. Bad news for Winklevoss twins. So, I am predicting it will fall all the down to $2 range by the end of this year.

Want to bet?

[bitcoinator]

Why do I see attempts to manipulate the price in many posts... Am I paranoiac, or is it a coordinated action?

Difficulty skyrockets, the only chance to get more bitcoins cheap for those who don't have enough dollars and hashing power is to spread FUD.

[seleme]

Litcoin will also crash down to 2$ per LTC. In fact, all the CCs crash down to 2$

I'll take that 

Any Caribbean island on sale? 

[gmaki]

Litcoin will also crash down to 2$ per LTC. In fact, all the CCs crash down to 2$

If BTC and LTC are both at $2.00 wouldn't that make BTC a screaming buy? I know I'd be buying a lot of BTC and if I had any LTC I'd be selling it (or converting it to BTC) like crazy.

[N12]

Why do I see attempts to manipulate the price in many posts... Am I paranoiac, or is it a coordinated action?

Difficulty skyrockets, the only chance to get more bitcoins cheap for those who don't have enough dollars and hashing power is to spread FUD.

Noone wants cheap Bitcoins, people want cheap dollars.

[Qoheleth]

If you're so sure, go take out a short position and make 30x your investment.

Talk is cheap.

[MXRider]

Houston, we have a problem! Great Master of Bitcoin, Sir Pietila told me that Bitcoin will reach $300 000 so OP is spreading BS:

[HappyBitCoinUser]

BTC value has been dropping steadily. Bad news for Winklevoss twins. So, I am predicting it will fall all the down to $2 range by the end of this year.

Probably even lower than that.

Its nice to finally see someone that isn't doing drugs, and think that we're going to hit $1k or $1M.

I haven't check in the last 24 hours, so I brought up MtGox expecting to see maybe $95 but it was $82 lol... dropping fast! Heheh.

[Qoheleth]

BTC value has been dropping steadily. Bad news for Winklevoss twins. So, I am predicting it will fall all the down to $2 range by the end of this year.

Probably even lower than that.

Overall, my outlook is bearish these days. The price will fall for a while - I've accepted it.

But every time I see people talking about the price falling below $2/coin, I wonder what's going on inside their brains.

Compare today's world to the world of late 2011. The USD/BTC rate had only spiked once, followed by a long and depressing bear-market, and there was a good chance that over-$10/coin was a one-time thing, an accident never to come again. Other than Silk Road, there was very little you could do with BTC.

In that world, in a world where a good argument could be made that Bitcoin was on its way out, the exchange rate tested $2/coin in enormous volume, and $2/coin proved itself sound.

If $2/coin was an impenetrable wall of value-confidence back then, what on earth could break that value-confidence today, in a world where high BTC prices have come twice ("and why not again?"), in a world where there are institutional investors dipping their toes into the market, in a world where you can buy food and shelter with your bitcoins?

I'm bearish, sure. It's my guess (granted, one that I refuse to trust, or else I'd be shorting like mad) that the bottom will be somewhere in the $11-30 range, which is way lower than what we have today. But barring something that shatters the Bitcoin network itself, I do not think that we will see $1.95/coin again.

[imbladednow]

Houston, we have a problem! Great Master of Bitcoin, Sir Pietila told me that Bitcoin will reach $300 000 so OP is spreading BS:

So Im going to buy at 2USD this winter because of this reason. Thank you

[dbanga85]

BTC value has been dropping steadily. Bad news for Winklevoss twins. So, I am predicting it will fall all the down to $2 range by the end of this year.

Bro you sound stupid as shit

[MAbtc]

People are getting even more bearish than our resident bear-troll, Jaroslaw. Interesting times!

Why do I see attempts to manipulate the price in many posts... Am I paranoiac, or is it a coordinated action?

Why manipulation? Why coordinated? Bulls is crazy -- always scratching their head and posting things like, "I can't figure it out, why is the price going down?"

[Spaceman_Spiff]

i agreee maybe nut 2$ but 5$ for sure

Want to bet on that?

[Jaroslaw]

technical analists

[chufchuf]

has the OP been testing some shrooms at Atlantis, oh man

[jamesc760]

No, I don't do shrooms, just a bowl of cold water. Lots of people are starting to panic now that it does look like bitcoin is on a long term slide. I just based my prediction based on the fact that this recent downturn is the result of asic miners dumping their mined coins en masse. They won't stop until they have driven the value to the dirt floor. Even at $2, the asic miners will keep on running their machines. That is the future I have seen in my bowl of cold water.

[jamesc760]

every week for the past month, btc value has been falling by $10US, and extrapolating it to the next few weeks gives me the following;


July 10 -- $70

July 17 -- $60

July 24 -- $50

,
,
,
August 21 -- $10

Once the $10 firewall is breeched, the race to $2 will happen in a few days.

Thus, by the end of August 2013, it will be $2 or less.

PS: I am neither an expert nor a psychic. Think of me as a devils advocate.

[MAbtc]

Even at $2, the asic miners will keep on running their machines.

^^^ This is your problem, right here.

[xavier]

Its nice to finally see someone that isn't doing drugs, and think that we're going to hit $1k or $1M.

+1

Probably even lower than that.

Overall, my outlook is bearish these days. The price will fall for a while - I've accepted it.

But every time I see people talking about the price falling below $2/coin, I wonder what's going on inside their brains.

Compare today's world to the world of late 2011. The USD/BTC rate had only spiked once, followed by a long and depressing bear-market, and there was a good chance that over-$10/coin was a one-time thing, an accident never to come again. Other than Silk Road, there was very little you could do with BTC.

In that world, in a world where a good argument could be made that Bitcoin was on its way out, the exchange rate tested $2/coin in enormous volume, and $2/coin proved itself sound.

If $2/coin was an impenetrable wall of value-confidence back then, what on earth could break that value-confidence today, in a world where high BTC prices have come twice ("and why not again?"), in a world where there are institutional investors dipping their toes into the market, in a world where you can buy food and shelter with your bitcoins?

I'm bearish, sure. It's my guess (granted, one that I refuse to trust, or else I'd be shorting like mad) that the bottom will be somewhere in the $11-30 range, which is way lower than what we have today. But barring something that shatters the Bitcoin network itself, I do not think that we will see $1.95/coin again.

+1

[BitcoinAshley]

BTC value has been dropping steadily. Bad news for Winklevoss twins. So, I am predicting it will fall all the down to $2 range by the end of this year.

Probably even lower than that.

Overall, my outlook is bearish these days. The price will fall for a while - I've accepted it.

But every time I see people talking about the price falling below $2/coin, I wonder what's going on inside their brains.

Compare today's world to the world of late 2011. The USD/BTC rate had only spiked once, followed by a long and depressing bear-market, and there was a good chance that over-$10/coin was a one-time thing, an accident never to come again. Other than Silk Road, there was very little you could do with BTC.

In that world, in a world where a good argument could be made that Bitcoin was on its way out, the exchange rate tested $2/coin in enormous volume, and $2/coin proved itself sound.

If $2/coin was an impenetrable wall of value-confidence back then, what on earth could break that value-confidence today, in a world where high BTC prices have come twice ("and why not again?"), in a world where there are institutional investors dipping their toes into the market, in a world where you can buy food and shelter with your bitcoins?

I'm bearish, sure. It's my guess (granted, one that I refuse to trust, or else I'd be shorting like mad) that the bottom will be somewhere in the $11-30 range, which is way lower than what we have today. But barring something that shatters the Bitcoin network itself, I do not think that we will see $1.95/coin again.

Quoted 4 Trufe.

[phillipsjk]

If the price drops below $5, I will consider taking out loans to buy up as much BTC as I can.

I would be surprised it the price dips below 60 for any extended period of time.

[gmaki]

every week for the past month, btc value has been falling by $10US, and extrapolating it to the next few weeks gives me the following;


July 10 -- $70

July 17 -- $60

July 24 -- $50

,
,
,
August 21 -- $10

Once the $10 firewall is breeched, the race to $2 will happen in a few days.

Thus, by the end of August 2013, it will be $2 or less.

PS: I am neither an expert nor a psychic. Think of me as a devils advocate.

I agree with your analysis as I came up with $2 as well. However the one thing I think you are missing is increasing difficulty of mining which sets the bottom price higher. Yes ASIC is driving price to that floor, but it is also driving difficulty up at the same time.

Right now I have them converging at $20, but it doesn't matter it will be easy to calculate when it gets there... whatever price it is. That is when to buy.

Better yet I am thinking of purchasing whatever the most efficient miner is at that time (assuming it can be shipped immediately) and either buying or mining based on the KW/GH ratio advantage at any given time.

[exxe]

every week for the past month, btc value has been falling by $10US, and extrapolating it to the next few weeks gives me the following;


July 10 -- $70

July 17 -- $60

July 24 -- $50

,
,
,
August 21 -- $10

Once the $10 firewall is breeched, the race to $2 will happen in a few days.

Thus, by the end of August 2013, it will be $2 or less.

PS: I am neither an expert nor a psychic. Think of me as a devils advocate.

 

[inspiredinvestor]

Does this mean LTC will be worth more than BTC in August??? 

[cbeast]

Yep all those people that invested millions into Bitcoin development and holdings will just allow their investment to fail.

[Coinseeker]

Yep all those people that invested millions into Bitcoin development and holdings will just allow their investment to fail.

What choice do they have?  Are they going to buy up all the coins?  Spend them all by themselves?  The difference between investors and die hard bitcoiners is, investors know when to cut their losses and move on.  Diehard bitcoiners will go down with the ship, in pure denial.  That's either admirably courageous or dumb as hell.  Let each person decide for themselves.

[jamesc760]

lol on the cartoon above. which reminds to add


I am neither an expert, a psychic, nor a statistian.

[Fiyasko]

Thanks!  I will wait until then to buy.  Thanks again for all this valuable information.

Put a bet up or shutup, ...

JackRabiit:  850+ activity.  Wow.

Wait what? Thats a noteworthy amount?

[BurtW]

Thanks!  I will wait until then to buy.  Thanks again for all this valuable information.

Put a bet up or shutup, ...

JackRabiit:  850+ activity.  Wow.

Wait what? Thats a noteworthy amount?

Take a look around.  It is the highest value I have seen.

[Fiyasko]

Thanks!  I will wait until then to buy.  Thanks again for all this valuable information.

Put a bet up or shutup, ...

JackRabiit:  850+ activity.  Wow.

Wait what? Thats a noteworthy amount?

Take a look around.  It is the highest value I have seen.

Oh holy shizzle!, I might even be here so often that i could become a moderator!, Woah!
Only people like Theymos have a activity count as high as mine. Gosh!

[bitcoinator]

Sorry, what is activity? I see I have activity always the same as post count, but what is it?

[BurtW]

Sorry, what is activity? I see I have activity always the same as post count, but what is it?

When you first start out activity=post count but then as you grow and mature it becomes something else based on a combination of time spent and post count.

[mskryxz]

BTC value has been dropping steadily. Bad news for Winklevoss twins. So, I am predicting it will fall all the down to $2 range by the end of this year.

Probably even lower than that.

Its nice to finally see someone that isn't doing drugs, and think that we're going to hit $1k or $1M.

I haven't check in the last 24 hours, so I brought up MtGox expecting to see maybe $95 but it was $82 lol... dropping fast! Heheh.

yeah looks like we're even lower than that

[sir faps]

How did this person know? They were right on the money

[favelle75]

This is the closest most accurate prediction I have ever seen...I will most certainly follow this person's advice at every corner. 




/sarcasm

[BurtW]

Name:  jamesc760
Posts:  329
Activity: 238
Position:  Sr. Member
Date Registered:  April 05, 2013, 11:13:23 PM
Last Active:  Today at 09:38:10 PM


Any comment jamessc760?  How did you get to be so darn accurate?

[hope4me]

BTC value has been dropping steadily. Bad news for Winklevoss twins. So, I am predicting it will fall all the down to $2 range by the end of this year.

Probably even lower than that.

Its nice to finally see someone that isn't doing drugs, and think that we're going to hit $1k or $1M.

I haven't check in the last 24 hours, so I brought up MtGox expecting to see maybe $95 but it was $82 lol... dropping fast! Heheh.

yeah looks like we're even lower than that

Funny to see predictions half year ago, but to be fair, still some time for drop under $2 by December 31, 2013 

[freethink2013]

lol. still a few days to go tbf

[cryptozaurus]

That was a lot of fun reading this old thread!
There is still couple of days before the 31 but I have a hard time figuring the price going down that much!
Especially China is back in the game..

[MAbtc]

You guys are missing the point. We only have three days before a flash crash to $2. See you on the order books.

[jamesc760]

I was surprised to see this old post get dug up! I have no idea how I came to write this regrettably ultra-bearish dribble. But, I DID mention a few times that I am no psychic or statistician, or whatever. It just goes to show you that you can't just extrapolate on anything. Mea culpa. So sorry. I am just bad at predicting. You should never follow my advice or prediction or whatever. This IS a speculation forum, isn't it???

[BitChick]

I was surprised to see this old post get dug up! I have no idea how I came to write this regrettably ultra-bearish dribble. But, I DID mention a few times that I am no psychic or statistician, or whatever. It just goes to show you that you can't just extrapolate on anything. Mea culpa. So sorry. I am just bad at predicting. You should never follow my advice or prediction or whatever. This IS a speculation forum, isn't it???

Hopefully you held a few coins!?

Glad you were wrong BTW!   

[zakalwe]

I was surprised to see this old post get dug up! I have no idea how I came to write this regrettably ultra-bearish dribble. But, I DID mention a few times that I am no psychic or statistician, or whatever. It just goes to show you that you can't just extrapolate on anything. Mea culpa. So sorry. I am just bad at predicting. You should never follow my advice or prediction or whatever. This IS a speculation forum, isn't it???

LOL man, it's funny to see after all these months what really happened. But by your side you have the fact that it's merely impossible to really predict where the hell bitcoin, and in general crypto currencies, will be after several months.

But, to me, for sure it tends to go up up up.

I finished.

Oh yeah I almost forgot

HOOOOOOOOOODDDLLLL!!!!!!!!

 

[tdenisenko]

You guys are missing the point. We only have three days before a flash crash to $2. See you on the order books.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OyabiLNfjQw&feature=youtu.be&t=14s

[Miz4r]

BTC value has been dropping steadily. Bad news for Winklevoss twins. So, I am predicting it will fall all the down to $2 range by the end of this year.

Probably even lower than that.

Its nice to finally see someone that isn't doing drugs, and think that we're going to hit $1k or $1M.

Moral of the story here: use more drugs.

[TERA]

Dude I just checked bitcoinity and this guy is right.

[Boxman90]

Lol I just still can't believe Bitcoinity with their new paradigm shit.

That mBTC denomination is making my brain hurt every time I get there on a new browser. Seriously what a delusional joke.

[BurtW]

Lol I just still can't believe Bitcoinity with their new paradigm shit.

That mBTC denomination is making my brain hurt every time I get there on a new browser. Seriously what a delusional joke.

I like it.  I can buy mBTC for less than one dollar!!!  I feel rich.  Although I think it would be better if every single web site was forced by the Bitcoin central authority to use nBTC because then I would be a nBTC trillionaire 

[/sarcasm]

Honestly, having the option to view in whatever units you want does not hurt anything.

[jamesc760]

I have been bashing perma-bears like accord01 and edward50 on their bearich threads lately. Karma's a bitch. I had no idea I was such a bear a few months back. I have been reformed. I have found the light. Bitcoin has saved me. Halleluyah! It's such a freeing feeling now. All bears should try it.

[BurtW]

The bears should create their own coin called BearCoin and then ... Oh, wait, I don't think that will work

[jamesc760]

Lol, well, I have made another, brand new, prediction for 2014:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=389081.0

I hope everyone will get a chuckle out of that one as well! Happy new year!!! Go bitcoin!!!

[BitChick]

Lol, well, I have made another, brand new, prediction for 2014:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=389081.0

I hope everyone will get a chuckle out of that one as well! Happy new year!!! Go bitcoin!!!

I like this one much better.   

I hope you are right this time!

[Gleason]

I was surprised to see this old post get dug up! I have no idea how I came to write this regrettably ultra-bearish dribble. But, I DID mention a few times that I am no psychic or statistician, or whatever. It just goes to show you that you can't just extrapolate on anything. Mea culpa. So sorry. I am just bad at predicting. You should never follow my advice or prediction or whatever. This IS a speculation forum, isn't it???

yea. $2 was never going to happen, even if no good news ever came into BTC.  After the first run-up, there was too much buying pressure wayyyyyy before $2.

Since this run up, we will never see sub $150 again. far too much pressure and people with money who will buy a shit ton of coins far before that point.

[cryptocoinmkt.com]

Put a bet up or shutup, if you're correct you have nothing to fear and bitcoins to gain.
If you're wrong then you get to feel the pain of making a stupid guess and wasting our time.

+1 Agreed.

People make price predictions like they have some magic crystal ball, when they have no fudging ideal what they are talking about, and the factors they use, and here say guesses mean jack.

I've been watching markets over the last decade and this reminds me a lot, like all these pundits predicting stock price, and stock market directions. They are mostly just spreading FUD (Fear uncertainty and doubt) and don't have a true basis for their predictions.  Maybe, he/she needs the price to go down so he/she can buy some.

Well, it's December 28.   Three days left to go and BTC price is $708, let us see if the guy who started this " (I predict BTC/USD will fall to $2 by December 31, 2013 )" thread is correct, or he/she is just another dumb "as%" who likes to make clueless predictions with hard dates.

[Jomppe]

BTC value should be around 2-10 dollars.
My argument is the following: WorldCoin costs less than a dollar despite the fact that they will be minted roughly only 10 times as many as BTC so the long term BTC/WDC should be 0.10 BTC/WDC. This gives the BTC estimated value being less than 10 dollars...

[TradeAnalyst]

Well if you have BTC in your wallet and if you think that each BTC will be 2 or 5 USD  I an doing you a big favor by buying them immediatly a  10 USD

What a good deal for you you are sure to get 5 times your valuation ! 

[cr1776]

I was surprised to see this old post get dug up! I have no idea how I came to write this regrettably ultra-bearish dribble. But, I DID mention a few times that I am no psychic or statistician, or whatever. It just goes to show you that you can't just extrapolate on anything. Mea culpa. So sorry. I am just bad at predicting. You should never follow my advice or prediction or whatever. This IS a speculation forum, isn't it???

I think that just about the only thing one can predict is that the dollar, Euro, Yen, Yuan etc will lose value/purchasing power over time.  If you predict that in 10 years they'll have lost value, I think you'd be pretty much guaranteed to have been accurate.  :-)

[cr1776]

BTC value should be around 2-10 dollars.
My argument is the following: WorldCoin costs less than a dollar despite the fact that they will be minted roughly only 10 times as many as BTC so the long term BTC/WDC should be 0.10 BTC/WDC. This gives the BTC estimated value being less than 10 dollars...

Fortunately quantity of coins mined is not the only or even the major determining factor in price.

Think about TCP/IP vs TLK/MD.  They do essentially the same thing, why is everyone using TCP/IP?

[notme]

BTC value should be around 2-10 dollars.
My argument is the following: WorldCoin costs less than a dollar despite the fact that they will be minted roughly only 10 times as many as BTC so the long term BTC/WDC should be 0.10 BTC/WDC. This gives the BTC estimated value being less than 10 dollars...

What can you get for worldcoin?  I can spend bitcoin on fiat money, food, clothes, shelter, electronics, as well as many services.  In 6 months, I will be able to shop with it on overstock.com.  A limited supply is only one part of the value equation.

[piramida]

A limited supply is only one part of the value equation.

Yep, I would say it is a negligible part of the equation. There is only one specific painting of picasso in existence, and there's only one specific fingerpainting of some round red thing with green things around it by my 2yr old as well, but they differ in value significantly.

[nerFohanzo]

BTC value should be around 2-10 dollars.
My argument is the following: WorldCoin costs less than a dollar despite the fact that they will be minted roughly only 10 times as many as BTC so the long term BTC/WDC should be 0.10 BTC/WDC. This gives the BTC estimated value being less than 10 dollars...

Only in world where WorldCoin is as much used/popular as Bitcoin.