Calling top at $16500 (New speculation: Guess the price 19 Feb 2021!)

[sgbett]

Hello,

Its been a while.

Imagine for a second that we are nearing the blow off top, I'm looking out for where we might ultimately form a new baseline (background)

I'm going to say ~$3700 looks good



As you all know, this run up started around $200

$200 to $3700 is $3500 increase. If we do a fib retrace of 78.6%, working the math we end up with that $3500 representing 12.4% of the overall expected gain before it corrects. That gives 3500/0.1240.214 => $16300 gain.

$16,300 + starting point of $200 = $16,500

Edit: fixed transposition of numbers 0.124 should be 0.214
Edit: added link to "guess the price Feb 19th" post

[sgbett]

here is a colourful fellow illustrating the above...

[thecodebear]

Well a correction is obviously incoming after the past few days. But obviously it's not going to go down that low haha. I expect just as all the other crashes this year it will go back to the base price of the current boom - $11k-$12k. It will recover back up to the ATH in a matter of days or weeks and we'll be over $20k not too long from now.

[sgbett]

Well a correction is obviously incoming after the past few days. But obviously it's not going to go down that low haha. I expect just as all the other crashes this year it will go back to the base price of the current boom - $11k-$12k. It will recover back up to the ATH in a matter of days or weeks and we'll be over $20k not too long from now.

Bitcoin has not experienced a major correction (crash) this year. Everything to date has been pretty tame. Look at the $60-$1200 runup, lots of up and down along the way. Then you get the *real* correction.

[Bitcoinaire]

The $3,000-$4,000 low will come in the blink of an eye. But first we retest $10,000 and maybe have a double top.

[sgbett]

The $3,000-$4,000 low will come in the blink of an eye. But first we retest $10,000 and maybe have a double top.

Yes it wont happen overnight, the $3700 bottom could be months/years if it follows the same pattern as before. I'm kinda sceptical it will as I am just as caught up in the euphoria as the next person. (despite being all in BCH, I have some Bitcoin ETF exposure in my pension)

could just keep going up!

[fabiorem]

here is a colourful fellow illustrating the above...

Shouldnt the correction be to 0.618 level?

At least this is what it looks like historically: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1J19gwjumJ8

The 0.618 level in your retracement is between 6k and 7k.

Also, notice theres only one red candle above it, which can point out to institutional investors joining the market.

[Torque]

We have broad userbase support at ~$8k, and below that mining ROI support around $5-6k and climbing.

And with all the W$ money coming in, I highly doubt sub $10k coins wouldn't get snapped up in a heartbeat.

[sgbett]

here is a colourful fellow illustrating the above...

Shouldnt the correction be to 0.618 level?

At least this is what it looks like historically: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1J19gwjumJ8

The 0.618 level in your retracement is between 6k and 7k.

Also, notice theres only one red candle above it, which can point out to institutional investors joining the market.

That would probably be more likely and in fact was staring me in the face. Lol.

Still, I like bold predictions that go against the group - makes for better discussion!

[sgbett]

We have broad userbase support at ~$8k, and below that mining ROI support around $5-6k and climbing.

And with all the W$ money coming in, I highly doubt sub $10k coins wouldn't get snapped up in a heartbeat.

Yeah agreed and would tie in with what fabiourum is saying.

Maybe what is different this time around is that Bitcoin has so much momentum now that it cant do a full hype correction like it has in the past, so it might just do a first correction to 7-8k but then resume upwards instead of the long drawn out recovery with lower lows.

[fabiorem]

$16500 seems to coincide with sunday, which is the opening of CBOE futures.

[X7]

Hello,

Its been a while.

Imagine for a second that we are nearing the blow off top, I'm looking out for where we might ultimately form a new baseline (background)

I'm going to say ~$3700 looks good



As you all know, this run up started around $200

$200 to $3700 is $3500 increase. If we do a fib retrace of 78.6%, working the math we end up with that $3500 representing 12.4% of the overall expected gain before it corrects. That gives 3500/0.124 => $16300 gain.

$16,300 + starting point of $200 = $16,500

$3700? lol - you're living in denial with this one bro... retraction sure... it wont hit $3700 with this type of money entering the space.

[Torque]

We have broad userbase support at ~$8k, and below that mining ROI support around $5-6k and climbing.

And with all the W$ money coming in, I highly doubt sub $10k coins wouldn't get snapped up in a heartbeat.

Yeah agreed and would tie in with what fabiourum is saying.

Maybe what is different this time around is that Bitcoin has so much momentum now that it cant do a full hype correction like it has in the past, so it might just do a first correction to 7-8k but then resume upwards instead of the long drawn out recovery with lower lows.

Well, I believe a big short would definitely be a shake out attempt and not a full on crash and burn. The biggest whales playing in the new futures markets want to exert their market dominance early on. It's all about control. Plus they want all the n00bs to shit their pants and panic sell, lol.

[sgbett]

We have broad userbase support at ~$8k, and below that mining ROI support around $5-6k and climbing.

And with all the W$ money coming in, I highly doubt sub $10k coins wouldn't get snapped up in a heartbeat.

Yeah agreed and would tie in with what fabiourum is saying.

Maybe what is different this time around is that Bitcoin has so much momentum now that it cant do a full hype correction like it has in the past, so it might just do a first correction to 7-8k but then resume upwards instead of the long drawn out recovery with lower lows.

Well, I believe a big short would definitely be a shake out attempt and not a full on crash and burn. The biggest whales playing in the new futures markets want to exert their market dominance early on. It's all about control. Plus they want all the n00bs to shit their pants and panic sell, lol.

Yes, for sure crypto isn't going away. I do have an uneasy feeling about wall street coming. There is a huge assumption that they are just going to pump pump pump. I'm not sure that's how it works. I think there is an opportunity here for them to capitalise, they have deep pockets so they can short it all the way down to where they want to buy back in, then acquire.

Why would they pay todays prices?

[LFC_Bitcoin]

The $3,000-$4,000 low will come in the blink of an eye. But first we retest $10,000 and maybe have a double top.

Yes it wont happen overnight, the $3700 bottom could be months/years if it follows the same pattern as before. I'm kinda sceptical it will as I am just as caught up in the euphoria as the next person. (despite being all in BCH, I have some Bitcoin ETF exposure in my pension)

could just keep going up!

See bold - Butthurt OP with no bitcoin’s, trying to influence weak hands & noobs. Nothing to see here. $3700 lol, how can you base any kind of prediction on the Gox debacle which caused that crash.

Try harder next time

Convert some of that Ver shitcoin into bitcoin.

[DaMut]

in my opinion we may be can see it when that time comes,
but at best it will only hit when the panic begins and the price will be retrace back to around $7000 more or less.
if we're standing at $3700 or around that for the time being,
do you think people will keep mining it while they can mining other coin and get a lot of profit from that.
indeed we're moving from around $700~$3000 this year,
but we can not meassure it by only using it alone.
there're a lot of factors that can determine Bitcoin price,
do not forget about a newly listing that will happen in some places in the near future.
do not forget about the demand that will be increase a lot from time to time,
and lastly do not forget about positive feedback from japanese that allow it in their country.
determining the price with only using chart will only work if the asset already stable.
Bitcoin ? it's far from that thing.

[thecodebear]

Well a correction is obviously incoming after the past few days. But obviously it's not going to go down that low haha. I expect just as all the other crashes this year it will go back to the base price of the current boom - $11k-$12k. It will recover back up to the ATH in a matter of days or weeks and we'll be over $20k not too long from now.

Bitocin has not experienced a major correction (crash) this year. Everything to date has been pretty tame. Look at the $60-$1200 sunup, lots of up and down along the way. Then you get the *real* correction.

Sorry buddy. We've had a few major corrections this year. You people hoping for another Mt. Gox will be waiting forever. The major corrections just happen on a much quicker time scale this year than previous years because bitcoin is finally starting to gain mainstream adoption (though obviously still very early in that process).

And yes I love how you cynics like to point at Mt. Gox as the model of Bitcoin crashes and you think that all Bitcoin crashes last for years, but that just isn't the case. That years long crash was due to one specific event.

If you look at the pattern of crashes you'll see that all of the crashes/corrections this year (there have been 4 since Bitcoin started going wild in May) fit the pattern of all the previous crashes, they're just coming at a much quicker period than previously, which makes perfect sense given that Bitcoin is now starting its mainstream adoption phase. The pattern is a significant pull back that goes down to around the previous high before the boom. That exact thing has happened 4 times since May. The big crash you're looking for is never coming, because it has already come 4 times since the spring you just haven't been recognizing them.

[fabiorem]

We have broad userbase support at ~$8k, and below that mining ROI support around $5-6k and climbing.

And with all the W$ money coming in, I highly doubt sub $10k coins wouldn't get snapped up in a heartbeat.

Yeah agreed and would tie in with what fabiourum is saying.

Maybe what is different this time around is that Bitcoin has so much momentum now that it cant do a full hype correction like it has in the past, so it might just do a first correction to 7-8k but then resume upwards instead of the long drawn out recovery with lower lows.

Well, I believe a big short would definitely be a shake out attempt and not a full on crash and burn. The biggest whales playing in the new futures markets want to exert their market dominance early on. It's all about control. Plus they want all the n00bs to shit their pants and panic sell, lol.

Yes, for sure crypto isn't going away. I do have an uneasy feeling about wall street coming. There is a huge assumption that they are just going to pump pump pump. I'm not sure that's how it works. I think there is an opportunity here for them to capitalise, they have deep pockets so they can short it all the way down to where they want to buy back in, then acquire.

Why would they pay todays prices?

Well, for the self-fulfilling "prophecies" to work, they need to hold some thousands of bitcoins, and act like whales.

They just buy all the positions, which pump the price, then make a future contract speculating a fall to half the price. They use 10x leverage for the contract, then come back to the bitcoin exchange, dump all their coins by half of what they paid, and if they hit it, they receive 5x of what they spend. If they hit it, of course, if not they lose the bet. At least this is what I understood of it.

[sgbett]

$16500 seems to coincide with sunday, which is the opening of CBOE futures.

I don't know what you are trying to suggest

[RyNinDaCleM]

Funny how this forum (and people in general) repeats the same mistakes over and over again. A big (and I mean fucking BIG) crash will come. Most gains will be returned, and the euphoria will die. Nothing simply 100x's and doesn't suffer a bear market after. Bitcoin doesn't only go up and wallstreet doesn't come to pump everyone's pockets full. OP may have gone full retard with BCH but that doesn't change the fact that inevitable crashes are inevitable. What I find most concerning is the other guys who have been here through a few major bear markets still think it can't happen to Bitcoin.
It will rise again, but it can't just keep going forever. It must rest sometimes. In fact, until this bull run, Bitcoin spent more time correcting than rising. This was a sustainable rally until very recently. Now it is starting to get out of hand again.

Just be careful out there!