Calling top at $16500 (New speculation: Guess the price 19 Feb 2021!)

[thecodebear]

Funny how this forum (and people in general) repeats the same mistakes over and over again. A big (and I mean fucking BIG) crash will come. Most gains will be returned, and the euphoria will die. Nothing simply 100x's and doesn't suffer a bear market after. Bitcoin doesn't only go up and wallstreet doesn't come to pump everyone's pockets full. OP may have gone full retard with BCH but that doesn't change the fact that inevitable crashes are inevitable. What I find most concerning is the other guys who have been here through a few major bear markets still think it can't happen to Bitcoin.
It will rise again, but it can't just keep going forever. It must rest sometimes. In fact, until this bull run, Bitcoin spent more time correcting than rising. This was a sustainable rally until very recently. Now it is starting to get out of hand again.

Just be careful out there!

I really think you guys just aren't seeing that we've been having the crashes same as they always came in years past, but they are just recovering much quicker than they used to because Bitcoin is getting mainstream adoption, which means millions of people are coming in with new money, whereas in crashes from years ago when it crashed there wasn't much new money to come in to prop it back up so it would take maybe half a year to recover from a crash. We already saw this speeding up in the Spring when the big crash only lasted a month and a half. We saw it again in September when the crash lasted also maybe a month and a half. Ever since futures were announced there has been mass hype this past month and a half so we've even had two crashes that just looked more like quick corrections in november because the money coming into bitcoin is unprecedented so these crashes (no different then in years past) are now on the timescale of days or weeks instead of ~half a year (MtGox crash was obviously a whole different beast and tied to one specific traumatic event for the bitcoin community so the length of that crash is of no relevance).

[1715130676]

1715130676

[1715130676]

1715130676

[Koro-Sensei]

Hello,

Its been a while.

Imagine for a second that we are nearing the blow off top, I'm looking out for where we might ultimately form a new baseline (background)

I'm going to say ~$3700 looks good



As you all know, this run up started around $200

$200 to $3700 is $3500 increase. If we do a fib retrace of 78.6%, working the math we end up with that $3500 representing 12.4% of the overall expected gain before it corrects. That gives 3500/0.124 => $16300 gain.

$16,300 + starting point of $200 = $16,500

For now bitcoin has a burning value because it hit the $15000 mark before even the second or third week of december im not so good in numbers but i do commend your efforts.

[Labrader]

Now it's almost 16300 on coinmarketcap and over 19000 on Coinone. So I wonder how the title of this topic is holding.

[Denker]

We have broad userbase support at ~$8k, and below that mining ROI support around $5-6k and climbing.

And with all the W$ money coming in, I highly doubt sub $10k coins wouldn't get snapped up in a heartbeat.

Yeah agreed and would tie in with what fabiourum is saying.

Maybe what is different this time around is that Bitcoin has so much momentum now that it cant do a full hype correction like it has in the past, so it might just do a first correction to 7-8k but then resume upwards instead of the long drawn out recovery with lower lows.

Well, I believe a big short would definitely be a shake out attempt and not a full on crash and burn. The biggest whales playing in the new futures markets want to exert their market dominance early on. It's all about control. Plus they want all the n00bs to shit their pants and panic sell, lol.

Yes, for sure crypto isn't going away. I do have an uneasy feeling about wall street coming. There is a huge assumption that they are just going to pump pump pump. I'm not sure that's how it works. I think there is an opportunity here for them to capitalise, they have deep pockets so they can short it all the way down to where they want to buy back in, then acquire.

Why would they pay todays prices?

Really? This is what you read?
All I read all the time is they gonna short short short Bitcoin to DEATH!
So what is it?
I tell you what. It's both bullshit!

[sgbett]

Now it's almost 16300 on coinmarketcap and over 19000 on Coinone. So I wonder how the title of this topic is holding.

Still ok, we got $15.5 on regular exchanges. GDAX is being a bit weird. We'll see - very soon by the looks of it!

[sgbett]

Funny how this forum (and people in general) repeats the same mistakes over and over again. A big (and I mean fucking BIG) crash will come. Most gains will be returned, and the euphoria will die. Nothing simply 100x's and doesn't suffer a bear market after. Bitcoin doesn't only go up and wallstreet doesn't come to pump everyone's pockets full. OP may have gone full retard with BCH but that doesn't change the fact that inevitable crashes are inevitable. What I find most concerning is the other guys who have been here through a few major bear markets still think it can't happen to Bitcoin.
It will rise again, but it can't just keep going forever. It must rest sometimes. In fact, until this bull run, Bitcoin spent more time correcting than rising. This was a sustainable rally until very recently. Now it is starting to get out of hand again.

Just be careful out there!

Wise words.

[bocyaj]

Now it's almost 16300 on coinmarketcap and over 19000 on Coinone. So I wonder how the title of this topic is holding.

Still ok, we got $15.5 on regular exchanges. GDAX is being a bit weird. We'll see - very soon by the looks of it!

Now the price crossed 15.8 k$,waiting to reach 16,500$. Are you think it's very high .Not at all,I think within the end of the day the price move to the 16,000$.Happiest news for the all holder,it will reach more than this 16500$ expectation.My suggestion for all of you is to hold till this christmas.

[sgbett]

You could be right but as RyN said... be careful!

[sgbett]

Still watching bitcoinity like....

[gatti]

Still watching bitcoinity like....

Me too bro.The price of Bitcoin is cross 16600$.I was doubt at whether I was in day dream.But it not show.I had just checked in coinbase wallet.This is the best time to hold and sell when the price stated to fall in huge manner.

[Labrader]

Aparently we've just experienced some sort of a lightning-fast correction, when the price dropped to some 14500 on several exchanges.

[Ektra]

I really think you guys just aren't seeing that we've been having the crashes same as they always came in years past, but they are just recovering much quicker than they used to because Bitcoin is getting mainstream adoption, which means millions of people are coming in with new money, whereas in crashes from years ago when it crashed there wasn't much new money to come in to prop it back up so it would take maybe half a year to recover from a crash. We already saw this speeding up in the Spring when the big crash only lasted a month and a half. We saw it again in September when the crash lasted also maybe a month and a half. Ever since futures were announced there has been mass hype this past month and a half so we've even had two crashes that just looked more like quick corrections in november because the money coming into bitcoin is unprecedented so these crashes (no different then in years past) are now on the timescale of days or weeks instead of ~half a year (MtGox crash was obviously a whole different beast and tied to one specific traumatic event for the bitcoin community so the length of that crash is of no relevance).

Oh you sweet summer child... 

[pereira4]

The $3,000-$4,000 low will come in the blink of an eye. But first we retest $10,000 and maybe have a double top.

Yes it wont happen overnight, the $3700 bottom could be months/years if it follows the same pattern as before. I'm kinda sceptical it will as I am just as caught up in the euphoria as the next person. (despite being all in BCH, I have some Bitcoin ETF exposure in my pension)

could just keep going up!

See bold - Butthurt OP with no bitcoin’s, trying to influence weak hands & noobs. Nothing to see here. $3700 lol, how can you base any kind of prediction on the Gox debacle which caused that crash.

Try harder next time

Convert some of that Ver shitcoin into bitcoin.

Good catch.. another altcoin bagholder attempting to get in at a cheaper price. Im sorry for your loss OP. We are not going to retest $3500 ever again, there are way too many people waiting to get in at higher prices, we have seen predicted dip prices to never be hit because people always get in before the predicted number is tested (because the market thinks other people will do the same, and this drives resistance points higher than expected).

[alyssa85]

here is a colourful fellow illustrating the above...

That's one scary chart!

I agree with you, we're now in Mania phase, which means the blow out is close. And then a bear market for two years, because that's the pattern bitcoin has previously had.

[hiscall]

Hello,

Its been a while.

Imagine for a second that we are nearing the blow off top, I'm looking out for where we might ultimately form a new baseline (background)

I'm going to say ~$3700 looks good

https://i.imgur.com/TZxXwQE.png

As you all know, this run up started around $200

$200 to $3700 is $3500 increase. If we do a fib retrace of 78.6%, working the math we end up with that $3500 representing 12.4% of the overall expected gain before it corrects. That gives 3500/0.124 => $16300 gain.

$16,300 + starting point of $200 = $16,500

in my exchange it show more than 19,500$

why number so high

[fabiorem]

Funny how this forum (and people in general) repeats the same mistakes over and over again. A big (and I mean fucking BIG) crash will come. Most gains will be returned, and the euphoria will die. Nothing simply 100x's and doesn't suffer a bear market after. Bitcoin doesn't only go up and wallstreet doesn't come to pump everyone's pockets full. OP may have gone full retard with BCH but that doesn't change the fact that inevitable crashes are inevitable. What I find most concerning is the other guys who have been here through a few major bear markets still think it can't happen to Bitcoin.
It will rise again, but it can't just keep going forever. It must rest sometimes. In fact, until this bull run, Bitcoin spent more time correcting than rising. This was a sustainable rally until very recently. Now it is starting to get out of hand again.

Just be careful out there!

You are not counting the massive adoption from recent months. Coinbase is adding thousands upon thousands of new users everyday, and even if they dont count for most of the money, theres already that idea that bitcoin is the new gold and people need it for protection against the government.

I remember the crash of MtGox. I didnt had any bitcoin at that time yet, because there was no use case for it. I only bought my first coin when Mega accepted it... I was interested in their services and wanted some degree of privacy, and so it happened. Now the use cases have multiplied, and there are people buying cars and houses with bitcoin, paying their bills, receiving wages... this is leading to massive adoption.

It was not the same at the time of MtGox, when it looked more like a collectible card than a real currency. MtGox was also centralizing bitcoin, now we have dozens of exchanges. You have to consider these aspects before saying there will be another multi-year bear market. A bear market like that is only possible in a centralized ecosystem, but the ecosystem have become more and more decentralized since MtGox. Think about the ICOs, all those altcoins, this was very niche at that time, now its spread around hundreds of parties. How can Wall Street control it all of a sudden? The only way they can do that is if they buy so much bitcoin that they have at least 25% of all the coins mined, and I doubt they will find it on every exchange, because people are hoarding it, they are taking it out of the exchanges and putting in cold wallets, increasing demand. Also, if they try to short it, using their futures mechanisms, this can provoke a bull run on the altcoins, and some people might hedge on them, bringing the money back to bitcoin when it reaches the bottom. Now imagine a future market for every single altcoin out there, this will take years, and until then, bitcoin will rise to Mars, because the adoption is going mainstream.

[dothebeats]

Now it's almost 16300 on coinmarketcap and over 19000 on Coinone. So I wonder how the title of this topic is holding.

Still ok, we got $15.5 on regular exchanges. GDAX is being a bit weird. We'll see - very soon by the looks of it!

You haven't checked Korean exchanges. At Bithumb, the price was a staggering $22k just a few hours ago but it seems that the prices are subsiding by now.

in my exchange it show more than 19,500$

why number so high

You are probably using Bithumb. You need to know that not all exchanges have the same volume and traders, so there would always be some discrepancies in between different exchanges. With these differences within the exchanges, traders are trying to profit off of it, and that is where arbitraging comes to play.

Funny how this forum (and people in general) repeats the same mistakes over and over again. A big (and I mean fucking BIG) crash will come. Most gains will be returned, and the euphoria will die. Nothing simply 100x's and doesn't suffer a bear market after. Bitcoin doesn't only go up and wallstreet doesn't come to pump everyone's pockets full. OP may have gone full retard with BCH but that doesn't change the fact that inevitable crashes are inevitable. What I find most concerning is the other guys who have been here through a few major bear markets still think it can't happen to Bitcoin.
It will rise again, but it can't just keep going forever. It must rest sometimes. In fact, until this bull run, Bitcoin spent more time correcting than rising. This was a sustainable rally until very recently. Now it is starting to get out of hand again.

Just be careful out there!

Sharing the same sentiment. Would be pulling out once it reached $20k in my exchange and would only look back after it crashed. There is no way that this would hold, and sooner or later there would be a huge profit booking from all sides. I like it that everyone is so lively about this price increase but on the reality part, everyone should be scared because we are all clueless as to when it will continue to hold.

[jimbo2000]

I would be in agreement with the general sentiment that a crash of large significance is inevitable but I just don't see how it will be right now. For me the timing doesn't make sense, I think we are starting to see the beginning of it but wouldn't be surprised to see bitcoin reach 30-40k before it actually happens. The whole futures market thing just seems like a strange time to trigger a mass crash. As I said I think sometime 30-40k and we will see a crash back down in to the region of probably 5-10k but who knows!

[Washball]

This is too good to be true. This rise in just a few hours is great, but the price will drop for sure. It can't just just keep on going up. In a few days or weeks after the futures launch we'll see a crash to 8K to cool off. Then the price will start to go up again to hit 20K in March next year.

[btcone111]

To be honest, technical analysis has not been working at all on BTC for the past few months...
I have tried to follow TA to buy a few ALTS and lost so much money in BTC terms