Calling top at $16500 (New speculation: Guess the price 19 Feb 2021!)

[RyNinDaCleM]

I would be in agreement with the general sentiment that a crash of large significance is inevitable but I just don't see how it will be right now. For me the timing doesn't make sense, I think we are starting to see the beginning of it but wouldn't be surprised to see bitcoin reach 30-40k before it actually happens. The whole futures market thing just seems like a strange time to trigger a mass crash. As I said I think sometime 30-40k and we will see a crash back down in to the region of probably 5-10k but who knows!

That is exactly the issue. It could be tonight, it could be at 40k. That's why I say be careful, and not that the top is in. I have seen enough Bitcoin rallies to know better than the euphoric statements in here. Yes LOTS of new people are coming in, but that is part of it. LOTS of potential top buyers. More pain that leads to more selling when the red candles elongate.

Imagine getting caught up in the mania, taking a loan, or using savings, or inheritance and buying Bitcoins at 16k a pop. Price hits 20k, you think this is gonna be great and you are so smart. Then the price starts to fall. It bounces to 15.5k and you think "good, it's coming back" then it turns down again. You've just become a bag holder.

I know it'll come back eventually, but most will just panic sell at a loss. There is very little regulation in Bitcoin, and none at the exchange engine level. There are no circuit breakers. No halting trade, just price changes that can be YUUGE. It usually takes only one 10 or 20% dump to mindfuck the sentiment right out of someone. Bitcoin has those all the time, so here, we see 30 or 40 or 50% dumps at times. The "crashes" we've seen since 200 were not crashes. They are there to gauge the market strength. "How fast can this recover?", "oh, pretty quickly, not yet". Eventually, it will drop and not return for a long time. The real crash is only the initial dumps of a bear market. People who are new since the $200 area don't even know what to expect. Their responses to this subject can't be taken at face value because they don't know what this is capable of. They'll be easy to find later. They'll be the ones asking why Bitcoin price is going down or what the bad news was.

Hold or don't...
I don't even care. Just be careful.

[1714164518]

1714164518

[1714164518]

1714164518

[sgbett]

The $3,000-$4,000 low will come in the blink of an eye. But first we retest $10,000 and maybe have a double top.

Yes it wont happen overnight, the $3700 bottom could be months/years if it follows the same pattern as before. I'm kinda sceptical it will as I am just as caught up in the euphoria as the next person. (despite being all in BCH, I have some Bitcoin ETF exposure in my pension)

could just keep going up!

See bold - Butthurt OP with no bitcoin’s, trying to influence weak hands & noobs. Nothing to see here. $3700 lol, how can you base any kind of prediction on the Gox debacle which caused that crash.

Try harder next time

Convert some of that Ver shitcoin into bitcoin.

Oh please. A bitcoin talk post is going to move markets? People were saying the same shit in 2011 and it was pure nonsense back then. Now it's a testament to just how stupid some people can be.

Maybe you could read my post a bit harder - *I have BTC exposure*. It's right there next to the bit you bolded.

Maybe take a step back and realise its not all about BTC vs BCH rah rah rage.

Try to keep on topic, was a reasonably decent discussion til you piped up.

[sgbett]

The $3,000-$4,000 low will come in the blink of an eye. But first we retest $10,000 and maybe have a double top.

Yes it wont happen overnight, the $3700 bottom could be months/years if it follows the same pattern as before. I'm kinda sceptical it will as I am just as caught up in the euphoria as the next person. (despite being all in BCH, I have some Bitcoin ETF exposure in my pension)

could just keep going up!

See bold - Butthurt OP with no bitcoin’s, trying to influence weak hands & noobs. Nothing to see here. $3700 lol, how can you base any kind of prediction on the Gox debacle which caused that crash.

Try harder next time

Convert some of that Ver shitcoin into bitcoin.

Good catch.. another altcoin bagholder attempting to get in at a cheaper price. Im sorry for your loss OP. We are not going to retest $3500 ever again, there are way too many people waiting to get in at higher prices, we have seen predicted dip prices to never be hit because people always get in before the predicted number is tested (because the market thinks other people will do the same, and this drives resistance points higher than expected).

No, it wasn't a good catch at all because neither he, nor you can apparently parse simple english. Or seem to understand the uncertain future. I'm speculating - its the speculation subforum, i'm pretty familiar with it. I didn't (and rarely) claim to be right.

[sgbett]

I would be in agreement with the general sentiment that a crash of large significance is inevitable but I just don't see how it will be right now. For me the timing doesn't make sense, I think we are starting to see the beginning of it but wouldn't be surprised to see bitcoin reach 30-40k before it actually happens. The whole futures market thing just seems like a strange time to trigger a mass crash. As I said I think sometime 30-40k and we will see a crash back down in to the region of probably 5-10k but who knows!

My sentiments exactly, I just thought I'd hang myself out to dry with a bold prediction! I'm not afraid of being wrong, I like the discussion that follows.

[sgbett]

I would be in agreement with the general sentiment that a crash of large significance is inevitable but I just don't see how it will be right now. For me the timing doesn't make sense, I think we are starting to see the beginning of it but wouldn't be surprised to see bitcoin reach 30-40k before it actually happens. The whole futures market thing just seems like a strange time to trigger a mass crash. As I said I think sometime 30-40k and we will see a crash back down in to the region of probably 5-10k but who knows!

That is exactly the issue. It could be tonight, it could be at 40k. That's why I say be careful, and not that the top is in. I have seen enough Bitcoin rallies to know better than the euphoric statements in here. Yes LOTS of new people are coming in, but that is part of it. LOTS of potential top buyers. More pain that leads to more selling when the red candles elongate.

Imagine getting caught up in the mania, taking a loan, or using savings, or inheritance and buying Bitcoins at 16k a pop. Price hits 20k, you think this is gonna be great and you are so smart. Then the price starts to fall. It bounces to 15.5k and you think "good, it's coming back" then it turns down again. You've just become a bag holder.

I know it'll come back eventually, but most will just panic sell at a loss. There is very little regulation in Bitcoin, and none at the exchange engine level. There are no circuit breakers. No halting trade, just price changes that can be YUUGE. It usually takes only one 10 or 20% dump to mindfuck the sentiment right out of someone. Bitcoin has those all the time, so here, we see 30 or 40 or 50% dumps at times. The "crashes" we've seen since 200 were not crashes. They are there to gauge the market strength. "How fast can this recover?", "oh, pretty quickly, not yet". Eventually, it will drop and not return for a long time. The real crash is only the initial dumps of a bear market. People who are new since the $200 area don't even know what to expect. Their responses to this subject can't be taken at face value because they don't know what this is capable of. They'll be easy to find later. They'll be the ones asking why Bitcoin price is going down or what the bad news was.

Hold or don't...
I don't even care. Just be careful.

Agreed - wish we could tip round here - in particular: The "crashes" we've seen since 200 were not crashes.

Every time people say that, it just increments my "chance top is in" counter.

[Labrader]

My sentiments exactly, I just thought I'd hang myself out to dry with a bold prediction! I'm not afraid of being wrong, I like the discussion that follows.

Yeah, but being 17.500 now on coinmarketcap and somewhat over 16500 on most exchanges and you calling a low of 3400 could make you loose credibility. The Coreans are very weary BTW, being over 21000 for they and impatiently waiting for said correction. Controversy for the sake of it is not always good, in fact more times the opposite.

(BTW, said correction did happen a few hours ago, but recovered in one hour. So you were kinda right, just not up with the speed.)

[sgbett]

My sentiments exactly, I just thought I'd hang myself out to dry with a bold prediction! I'm not afraid of being wrong, I like the discussion that follows.

Yeah, but being 17.500 now on coinmarketcap and somewhat over 16500 on most exchanges and you calling a low of 3400 could make you loose credibility. The Coreans are very weary BTW, being over 21000 for they and impatiently waiting for said correction. Controversy for the sake of it is not always good, in fact more times the opposite.

(BTW, said correction did happen a few hours ago, but recovered in one hour. So you were kinda right, just not up with the speed.)

Hah, my credibility went out the window a long time ago

WRT price - I'm pretty much bitstamp or GTFO

They seem the least prone to shenanigans, since gox they have always been (for me) the "honest" market price.

[Osarman]

We have broad userbase support at ~$8k, and below that mining ROI support around $5-6k and climbing.

And with all the W$ money coming in, I highly doubt sub $10k coins wouldn't get snapped up in a heartbeat.

Yeah agreed and would tie in with what fabiourum is saying.

Maybe what is different this time around is that Bitcoin has so much momentum now that it cant do a full hype correction like it has in the past, so it might just do a first correction to 7-8k but then resume upwards instead of the long drawn out recovery with lower lows.

Well, I believe a big short would definitely be a shake out attempt and not a full on crash and burn. The biggest whales playing in the new futures markets want to exert their market dominance early on. It's all about control. Plus they want all the n00bs to shit their pants and panic sell, lol.

Price will move up instead of the crash because bitcoin community is increasing day by day and with increase of single investor the price rise and all this rise will be more faster in the coming days and as the price of bitcoin has gone so high that now people are eagerly waiting for a crash so that they can get into the bitcoin but the sad news for them is that the demand will be more high and will jump to new record value.

[sgbett]

7-8k next week.

We'll get a bounce from BTFDers, it will retrace. Then we go lower to 3-4k. Then we have to endure another long cold winter.

Maybe I am Jon Snow. Maybe I know nothing

[fabiorem]

You hit it, sgbett.

The bears are out of the cave.

Everybody, get your rifles.

[sgbett]

You hit it, sgbett.

The bears are out of the cave.

Everybody, get your rifles.

I could still be proven wrong, but if not I was out by 1% the top on bitstamp was $16666.66

[fabiorem]

You hit it, sgbett.

The bears are out of the cave.

Everybody, get your rifles.

I could still be proven wrong, but if not I was out by 1% the top on bitstamp was $16666.66

It will hit support levels now, in a flash crash. Something around 7-9k. But it will be a short window.

Then it will rise again, as always.

[sgbett]

You hit it, sgbett.

The bears are out of the cave.

Everybody, get your rifles.

I could still be proven wrong, but if not I was out by 1% the top on bitstamp was $16666.66

It will hit support levels now, in a flash crash. Something around 7-9k. But it will be a short window.

Then it will rise again, as always.

If it continues downward then I think there's a bit of friction at $10.5k but if that doesn't hold then probably $7.6ish

I've still not-convinced it wont do a massive u-turn though

[Bitcoinaire]

Is it, "this time it's different?" Probably not. What I don't see happening is a long, protracted bear market. It will be good for things to cool down for a bit.

[thecodebear]

I would be in agreement with the general sentiment that a crash of large significance is inevitable but I just don't see how it will be right now. For me the timing doesn't make sense, I think we are starting to see the beginning of it but wouldn't be surprised to see bitcoin reach 30-40k before it actually happens. The whole futures market thing just seems like a strange time to trigger a mass crash. As I said I think sometime 30-40k and we will see a crash back down in to the region of probably 5-10k but who knows!

That is exactly the issue. It could be tonight, it could be at 40k. That's why I say be careful, and not that the top is in. I have seen enough Bitcoin rallies to know better than the euphoric statements in here. Yes LOTS of new people are coming in, but that is part of it. LOTS of potential top buyers. More pain that leads to more selling when the red candles elongate.

Imagine getting caught up in the mania, taking a loan, or using savings, or inheritance and buying Bitcoins at 16k a pop. Price hits 20k, you think this is gonna be great and you are so smart. Then the price starts to fall. It bounces to 15.5k and you think "good, it's coming back" then it turns down again. You've just become a bag holder.

I know it'll come back eventually, but most will just panic sell at a loss. There is very little regulation in Bitcoin, and none at the exchange engine level. There are no circuit breakers. No halting trade, just price changes that can be YUUGE. It usually takes only one 10 or 20% dump to mindfuck the sentiment right out of someone. Bitcoin has those all the time, so here, we see 30 or 40 or 50% dumps at times. The "crashes" we've seen since 200 were not crashes. They are there to gauge the market strength. "How fast can this recover?", "oh, pretty quickly, not yet". Eventually, it will drop and not return for a long time. The real crash is only the initial dumps of a bear market. People who are new since the $200 area don't even know what to expect. Their responses to this subject can't be taken at face value because they don't know what this is capable of. They'll be easy to find later. They'll be the ones asking why Bitcoin price is going down or what the bad news was.

Hold or don't...
I don't even care. Just be careful.

Agreed - wish we could tip round here - in particular: The "crashes" we've seen since 200 were not crashes.

Every time people say that, it just increments my "chance top is in" counter.

That right there is your fatal flaw here.

Your inability to recognize crashes post Mt. Gox crash. You seem to think that the current start of mass adoption is fake and that Bitcoin can never truly recover after that crash 4 years ago. Probably why as you say you are "all in BCH".

When you look at the crashes this year they follow the exact same pattern as all the earlier crashes, they just recover at a much quicker pace because obviously a lot more of the public knows about bitcoin now so there is a constant surge of new money coming in to cut short what used to be long consolidation periods.

And guess what, this is EXACTLY what you would expect from a new technology heading towards mass adoption. This is exactly what an S-curve looks like. Normally an S-curve doesn't have boom-bust cycles because normally things that are mass adopted are just products you buy and aren't an asset that you buy a "share" of and so there is no market and therefore no speculation which is what causes booms and busts. So we get boom-bust cycles that start out with long periods between them but higher volatility due to relatively small influxes of money affecting the market greatly, then when it starts moving up the spine of the "S" (2017 and onwards until the market reaches mass adoption, or the technology ends up failing or being replaced by something else before reaching maturity) the price gets harder to move as vastly more money is in the game so volatility shrinks but with new money always ready to come in at greater and greater amounts the period of the cycles speeds up immensely. And this is exactly what has been happening.


So go ahead and increment your "chance top is in" counter right now but it doesn't change the fact that you are seemingly incapable of recognizing an S-curve and therefore are fundamentally misreading everything that has happened this year, and you will continue to do so unless you really read the paragraph above and realize how plain to see this all is. Either way though, doesn't affect Bitcoin's continued rise when a few people are just unwilling to see the obvious. But hey, that's what all your BCH is for! ;p

[isov]

I kinda have a gut feeling that we're just entering the super exponential crazy rally phase. Like few more weeks and maybe a high around ~40k$ and then it's time for the proper crash with noobs hanging from nooses.

[pera]

I'm going to say ~$3700 looks good

That's funny, I'm also expecting that floor, a bit lower maybe in some exchanges. This is pretty close to the current cost of mining too (~$4k IIRC).

[fabiorem]

Is it, "this time it's different?" Probably not. What I don't see happening is a long, protracted bear market. It will be good for things to cool down for a bit.

Theres no way to have a "multi-year bear market" anymore, because at that time, there were very few use cases for bitcoin, and Mt.Gox dominated the exchanges. Now bitcoin is going mainstream, so if there is a bear period, it will last no more than one or two weeks, and it will lead to even more intense bull runs. People will just buy it due to increased demand.

[timerland]

Hello,

Its been a while.

Imagine for a second that we are nearing the blow off top, I'm looking out for where we might ultimately form a new baseline (background)

I'm going to say ~$3700 looks good



As you all know, this run up started around $200

$200 to $3700 is $3500 increase. If we do a fib retrace of 78.6%, working the math we end up with that $3500 representing 12.4% of the overall expected gain before it corrects. That gives 3500/0.124 => $16300 gain.

$16,300 + starting point of $200 = $16,500

Hasn't it already hit more than that? Probably topped it by $1000 or more on Bithumb, but even US exchanges have hit this pretty sure.

Your predictions could well come true and we see BTC top out at somewhere around that region. At the same time we may see a lot more rallies happening and this is only the beginning of these future rallies. Honestly, it's quite early to tell.

Personally i'm leaning towards another ATH soon, no offense to your analysis but i think the markets are just way too bullish for this current ATH to last for long.

[Rahar02]

$16,500 isn't the top, don't you know bitcoin price in South Korea reached over $22,500? There are few exchanges which listed bitcoin over $20,000 yesterday. However, bitcoin price will continue to increase after Bank of America wins the patent of an exchange system for the cryptocurrency, people in the US will be attracted to learn about cryptocurrency and more adopters is coming.
Bitcoin futures will be launched in this month and in 2018, so the rally isn't over yet.