Calling top at $16500 (New speculation: Guess the price 19 Feb 2021!)

[okala]

I will not called top at $16,500 as it seen bitcoin has not been respecting most of the Fibonacci level and I think this market is purely drive by speculation and news. We have seeing when a single tweet  has brought bitcoin down and also a tweet also has push price up to an unexpected level. I have been trying to understand reason why people are predicting a fall back to $3500 but I don't think this is realistic.

[sgbett]

REKT 

[btcone111]

There are loads of people out there who are losing money in this bullish market. One of the groups is technical analysts.
Don't get me wrong, I love TA, however it seems TA is really just not very effective on crypto.

[afbitcoins]

Hi sgbett its good to see posting again. I remember your analysis from way back including your postings about the S curve. Always appreciated your ideas.

Like you I assume this particular time will be no different ie there will be a crash and following bear market from this run up. Very hard to predict where it will end though. I'm not convinced the top is in yet though.

I wonder if segwit problems may prick the bubble, perhaps like Hyperme.sh alludes to with miners stealing a booty of coins held on segwit addresses. 

Its funny to see the idea that this run up has already had 'crashes' which just recovered very quick. Ah such innocence

[afbitcoins]

There are loads of people out there who are losing money in this bullish market. One of the groups is technical analysts.
Don't get me wrong, I love TA, however it seems TA is really just not very effective on crypto.

Seems to work pretty well for me mostly

[sgbett]

Hi sgbett its good to see posting again. I remember your analysis from way back including your postings about the S curve. Always appreciated your ideas.

Like you I assume this particular time will be no different ie there will be a crash and following bear market from this run up. Very hard to predict where it will end though. I'm not convinced the top is in yet though.

I wonder if segwit problems may prick the bubble, perhaps like Hyperme.sh alludes to with miners stealing a booty of coins held on segwit addresses. 

Its funny to see the idea that this run up has already had 'crashes' which just recovered very quick. Ah such innocence

Hey hey, glad you dropped in kind words thanks I remember you too. One of the real OGs

Yes the sweet summer children talking of “crashes” does seem funny, if it weren’t so serious!

I honestly thought that if it retested the top and broke through it would shoot higher. The fact it didn’t seems to show continued weakness. Let’s see how the it plays out today...

[sgbett]

There are loads of people out there who are losing money in this bullish market. One of the groups is technical analysts.
Don't get me wrong, I love TA, however it seems TA is really just not very effective on crypto.

I agree, I don’t trade for this reason

[yanlap]

Correction is over. Now to 20k and beyond.

I too have the thinking that price correction has got over. Now it's heading towards the next targeted price of $20k,and now the price has crossed the $16500 mark. By the start or at least by the first quarter I believe bitcoin will go above $20000 to make the price reach as speculated by most people.

Yeah buying at this time is not a good option because bitcoin has lot which is coming I future so be seated and get benefit from it and this thing is sure that in coming days price will rise up the upper most level and those who are patience will cash out that profit time, there are bunch of millions of people are coming to invest into bitcoin and that will give more prosperity to the bitcoin and will be good for us to make millions,

[sgbett]

So imagine the market was trying to correct right now. However, wall street is holding the price here, people "selling the top" are unloading coins into wall street hands.

All the while they are scooping up futures contracts cheap for the 18-20k range.

As the futures come due, wall street intensifies buying, all the sellers FOMO back in, price is pushed way up over the futures contract prices.

Wall street ends up with stacks of coins they got for cheap, and stacks of dollars from futures profits!

(Cool story bro')

[btcone111]

So imagine the market was trying to correct right now. However, wall street is holding the price here, people "selling the top" are unloading coins into wall street hands.

All the while they are scooping up futures contracts cheap for the 18-20k range.

As the futures come due, wall street intensifies buying, all the sellers FOMO back in, price is pushed way up over the futures contract prices.

Wall street ends up with stacks of coins they got for cheap, and stacks of dollars from futures profits!

(Cool story bro')

OK - but is that even the story? cos I don't think mainstream wall st has been very interested in BTC.
I simply probably will see it as simple as --- LTC buyers cash out by converting their LTC to BTC. Same could be said to other alts. BTC push up another 10% to breach $20K in 2 days time.

[fabiorem]

There are loads of people out there who are losing money in this bullish market. One of the groups is technical analysts.
Don't get me wrong, I love TA, however it seems TA is really just not very effective on crypto.

That's true, but a lot of people are influenced by TA. I have been doing it recently in tradingview just to influence bullish tendencies in people that visits that site. Theres so many bearish "predictions" there that I had to do something.

[MMA]

Hi sgbett its good to see posting again. I remember your analysis from way back including your postings about the S curve. Always appreciated your ideas.

Like you I assume this particular time will be no different ie there will be a crash and following bear market from this run up. Very hard to predict where it will end though. I'm not convinced the top is in yet though.

I wonder if segwit problems may prick the bubble, perhaps like Hyperme.sh alludes to with miners stealing a booty of coins held on segwit addresses. 

Its funny to see the idea that this run up has already had 'crashes' which just recovered very quick. Ah such innocence

Really yeah I am feeling the way you are for these nonsense. Sometime it seems truly baseless discussion when people hoping from bitcoin go against bitcoin and expect from bitcoin to be in a smooth line. Everyone here must have a little knowhow of bitcoin nature, its nature is designed with instability. Bitcoin can’t remain in the same order it will either move forward or backward. The elastic nature of bitcoin can be judged by how it recovered the last three times earlier from a bad situation. For some it may be the worst experience of bitcoin and for most it’s a great dance moves of their sweetheart

[sgbett]

So imagine the market was trying to correct right now. However, wall street is holding the price here, people "selling the top" are unloading coins into wall street hands.

All the while they are scooping up futures contracts cheap for the 18-20k range.

As the futures come due, wall street intensifies buying, all the sellers FOMO back in, price is pushed way up over the futures contract prices.

Wall street ends up with stacks of coins they got for cheap, and stacks of dollars from futures profits!

(Cool story bro')

OK - but is that even the story? cos I don't think mainstream wall st has been very interested in BTC.
I simply probably will see it as simple as --- LTC buyers cash out by converting their LTC to BTC. Same could be said to other alts. BTC push up another 10% to breach $20K in 2 days time.

I dunno, what is the story? I have no idea, but I can speculate as much as the next guy I'm not saying I'm right, but I'm saying its plausible and there is a strong profit motive for wall st to do such a thing.

Why are LTC buyers cashing out? Sounds like you are just hoping BTC will go up, and trying to think of a reason why it could? Whats the compelling reason to bail out of LTC and into BTC right now.

More curious to me is why LTC has gone up so much in the past few days...

[Toxic2040]

Hello,

-snip-

 = $16,500

I have been watching this...good call. I didnt want to believe..I thought 20k and then a retrace. Today's sell off has brought it right down into the ballpark.

Sold @ 17.21k  Profits still leaving alts. eth surprisingly resilient.

The next 48 hours will tell the story.


100th post after 4 years...   

[MrBigHang]

So imagine the market was trying to correct right now. However, wall street is holding the price here, people "selling the top" are unloading coins into wall street hands.

All the while they are scooping up futures contracts cheap for the 18-20k range.

As the futures come due, wall street intensifies buying, all the sellers FOMO back in, price is pushed way up over the futures contract prices.

Wall street ends up with stacks of coins they got for cheap, and stacks of dollars from futures profits!

(Cool story bro')

I like the speculation but why hold the price now?  Futures contract expire a year from now right?

[breedingsuccess]

So imagine the market was trying to correct right now. However, wall street is holding the price here, people "selling the top" are unloading coins into wall street hands.

All the while they are scooping up futures contracts cheap for the 18-20k range.

As the futures come due, wall street intensifies buying, all the sellers FOMO back in, price is pushed way up over the futures contract prices.

Wall street ends up with stacks of coins they got for cheap, and stacks of dollars from futures profits!

(Cool story bro')

Yes, I could see this. A run up to $20k+, load up on short contracts, then smash the price to something like $12k in 2 - 3 days...cover shorts, go long for rally. Rinse, wash, repeat.

However, there is one slight issue here. People have been calling a top since $201 (after it left $200), and here we are at $16500. LOL

[RyNinDaCleM]

So imagine the market was trying to correct right now. However, wall street is holding the price here, people "selling the top" are unloading coins into wall street hands.

All the while they are scooping up futures contracts cheap for the 18-20k range.

As the futures come due, wall street intensifies buying, all the sellers FOMO back in, price is pushed way up over the futures contract prices.

Wall street ends up with stacks of coins they got for cheap, and stacks of dollars from futures profits!

(Cool story bro')

I like the speculation but why hold the price now?  Futures contract expire a year from now right?

1 month, 2 months and 3 months from now

[Erelas]

I thought CBOE contracts were only available for one and three months, unless you meant an unregulated exchanges contracts?

3500$ correction, only if a lot of people short, and I still think if that happens they are too early to short.

[wuvdoll]

There are loads of people out there who are losing money in this bullish market. One of the groups is technical analysts.
Don't get me wrong, I love TA, however it seems TA is really just not very effective on crypto.

That's true, but a lot of people are influenced by TA. I have been doing it recently in tradingview just to influence bullish tendencies in people that visits that site. Theres so many bearish "predictions" there that I had to do something.

TA still works but if you are smart, even with your TA, you still have to try as much as possible to follow the trend and not be too relaxed that everything can just go as you want it. Not sure how the next top is going to be like but with the charts right now, nothing can be smelt yet.

It is good to just be careful at this stage. I really do not know why I have been feeling uneasy with this whole future thing, but it is good for one to just remain optimistic anyway.

[Denker]

Hello,

-snip-

 = $16,500

I have been watching this...good call. I didnt want to believe..I thought 20k and then a retrace. Today's sell off has brought it right down into the ballpark.

Sold @ 17.21k  Profits still leaving alts. eth surprisingly resilient.

The next 48 hours will tell the story.


100th post after 4 years...   

WTF??
OP got it completely wrong!
He wrote 16.5k is top and then bear market!
We are not done yet! We are consolidating while alts pumping a bit. Wait until Bitcoin starts it's next push, up to 20-25k and alts probably losing ground again.
And after that we may or may not have seen a top. Calling tops right now is just dumb in such mania phase. However we will retrace hard at one pint, at least for a while, what could be about a few weeks or months. And then we continue the run on the path to the moon.