Calling top at $16500 (New speculation: Guess the price 19 Feb 2021!)

[timerland]

Yes thats what is freaking me out, it doesn't make any sense. A parabolic run up like this has *always* ended with a significant correction in the past, followed by a longer retrace and then a new bottom higher than the previous ATH, to springboard off.

Paradigm shift.

Bitcoin is not a stock, it is a revolution.

That may be true, but we have come a long way from 2009. Bitcoin has now become big enough to be a separate asset class. With a large number of investors, it might very well start behaving like a stock in terms of price.

Exactly, right now people are using bitcoin as a speculative tool, instead of what it was initially intended to be as - a currency, an asset, a store of value. People that joined in 2017 onto the train do not understand that bitcoin can crash, and it can stay low for many years. All they've seen is a booming bitcoin that never stops and that feeds itself into the bubble.

So yeah, in a sense, it is like stocks, perhaps even more speculative. Bitcoin techonolgy is a revelation but right now, that technoolgy isn't used much.

There is going to be a top for sure, but $16500 is not it. We're going to hit $20k, even though it may be a bubble.

[sgbett]

This thread must be where the bears hang out.   

Bears on this thread should put their money where their mouth is and short the market.  I double dare ya.

Lol, I'm one of the original permabulls (if i say so myself). Whilst I think fundamentally, I'm better off heavier BCH, I'm not stupid enough to bet against speculative mania and sell BTC entirely, let alone short it!

Read a bit further up the thread, I'm what some might call a "bcash shill" and even I am saying we could see anything up to $80k in the short term.

Also, I don't trade so I never short *anything*. For me it's the most stupid trade you can make. Limited upside, unlimited downside.

[breedingsuccess]

$200 to $3700 is $3500 increase. If we do a fib retrace of 78.6%, working the math we end up with that $3500 representing 12.4% of the overall expected gain before it corrects. That gives 3500/0.124 => $16300 gain.

$16,300 + starting point of $200 = $16,500

What's your new top?

[Torque]

Read a bit further up the thread, I'm what some might call a "bcash shill" and even I am saying we could see anything up to $80k in the short term.

I don't get it sgbett. How did you become a BCash shill and still be rooting for Bitcoin?

You do realize that when Bitcoin gets a block size increase (and it WILL eventually) then BCash will become completely obsolete?

[d5000]

Bitcoin is not a stock, it is a revolution.

This is - partly - true. However, Bitcoin also shares characteristics with stocks: A Bitcoin is like a share of the Bitcoin ecosystem.

The Bitcoin ecosystem can be loosely compared with an organization or even a business, but it has a much less centralized structure. But it has the character of a group, because there are people "inside" and "outside" the ecosystem - as long as not everybody in the world is a Bitcoin user.

Another common point with businesses is that Bitcoin competes with similar projects, and although no one of them has surpassed it so far, it's not impossible (Ethereum did come somewhat close).

That means that the financial return of the "Bitcoin revolution" can be shared with other coins. From this point of view, it's like a company that did a significant innovation - it has a competitive advantage over others, but can be surpassed by them (e.g. Nokia inventing the smartphone in the 1990s, being completely marginalized in the 2010s because Apple improved the concept significantly).

[sgbett]

Read a bit further up the thread, I'm what some might call a "bcash shill" and even I am saying we could see anything up to $80k in the short term.

I don't get it sgbett. How did you become a BCash shill and still be rooting for Bitcoin?

You do realize that when Bitcoin gets a block size increase (and it WILL eventually) then BCash will become completely obsolete?

Just because I prefer the Bitcoin Cash project, doesn't mean I can't see the speculative value in Bitcoin. So I'm not really rooting for Bitcoin Core, just trying to be intellectually honest, and financially rational. I know why you don't get it, because you are still in love with BTC, I was and it's very hard to be open minded after 6 years of steadfast beleif. Only the people that have made the switch know how painful the breakup us.

So, because of this I'm not sure you can really make an objective judgement on the situation. I think your judgement is clouded further still because you seem to be stuck in an us/them mentality (i noticed the shill remark btw, just made me chuckle, you know its lost all meaning now right?). So, I would respectfully disagree with your theory. The only way BTC will get a base block-size increase is if Core end up totally backed into the corner (eg a cashening or the like), they are simply too entrenched in their position, it would be a desperate move in reaction to falling out of favour with the market. If the market has already set a new course, then I think anything core do would be futile. The only thing stopping the market moving now is the speculative value of BTC, and the attachment.

So I think the idea that BCH would become obsolete doesn't really make sense, because Core and Cash have two very different roadmaps. Their stated business model is 2L solutions/offchain. I doubt very much that Core is suddenly going to abandon this and ape Cash with an on-chain strategy. Do you think they would?

[sgbett]

$200 to $3700 is $3500 increase. If we do a fib retrace of 78.6%, working the math we end up with that $3500 representing 12.4% of the overall expected gain before it corrects. That gives 3500/0.124 => $16300 gain.

$16,300 + starting point of $200 = $16,500

What's your new top?

Still waiting to see whether this is a real breakout, or just another Tether Fuelled pump. The shape of the chart is weird.

Doeasn't seem clear at the moment what is going to happen, you can be sure I'll be in with an update once I have another crazy idea

[afbitcoins]

For a bit of fun heres an idea for the top. How does a brief spike to $50k in the very near future sound ?



That would be similar to the first bubble peak of 2013

Then a crash, but first a ginormous spike

I wonder if the reason many fail in TA is that they don't use the log price scale enough.

[afbitcoins]

Read a bit further up the thread, I'm what some might call a "bcash shill" and even I am saying we could see anything up to $80k in the short term.

I don't get it sgbett. How did you become a BCash shill and still be rooting for Bitcoin?

You do realize that when Bitcoin gets a block size increase (and it WILL eventually) then BCash will become completely obsolete?

Just because I prefer the Bitcoin Cash project, doesn't mean I can't see the speculative value in Bitcoin. So I'm not really rooting for Bitcoin Core, just trying to be intellectually honest, and financially rational. I know why you don't get it, because you are still in love with BTC, I was and it's very hard to be open minded after 6 years of steadfast beleif. Only the people that have made the switch know how painful the breakup us.

So, because of this I'm not sure you can really make an objective judgement on the situation. I think your judgement is clouded further still because you seem to be stuck in an us/them mentality (i noticed the shill remark btw, just made me chuckle, you know its lost all meaning now right?). So, I would respectfully disagree with your theory. The only way BTC will get a base block-size increase is if Core end up totally backed into the corner (eg a cashening or the like), they are simply too entrenched in their position, it would be a desperate move in reaction to falling out of favour with the market. If the market has already set a new course, then I think anything core do would be futile. The only thing stopping the market moving now is the speculative value of BTC, and the attachment.

So I think the idea that BCH would become obsolete doesn't really make sense, because Core and Cash have two very different roadmaps. Their stated business model is 2L solutions/offchain. I doubt very much that Core is suddenly going to abandon this and ape Cash with an on-chain strategy. Do you think they would?

I totally get where you are coming from. Bitcoin isn't what I thought from a few years back. Nor what Satoshi planned as far as I can surmise. In my case I started drifting away from bitcoin before the bitcoin cash fork though (however bitcoin still is a huge part of my portfolio for reasons similar to you I imagine). For me the digital cash battle is hands down Dash though. However I do also hold bitcoin cash (most of it retained from the fork) too just in case. Dash is like a digital organism, self funding, protects itself. Scary. Maybe it should be stopped. Can it be stopped?

[RyNinDaCleM]

For a bit of fun heres an idea for the top. How does a brief spike to $50k in the very near future sound ?



That would be similar to the first bubble peak of 2013

Then a crash, but first a ginormous spike

I wonder if the reason many fail in TA is that they don't use the log price scale enough.

Log scale (or better said, lack thereof) is only an issue when using trendlines during parabolic trends. Or just the visual appearance can be enough to scare you out of a long when you look at this



On short time frames, there is virtually no difference in the appearance. MA's, fibo, indicators are unaffected by log vs linear

50k is very possible in the very near future. Could come in the next couple of weeks

[sgbett]

Read a bit further up the thread, I'm what some might call a "bcash shill" and even I am saying we could see anything up to $80k in the short term.

I don't get it sgbett. How did you become a BCash shill and still be rooting for Bitcoin?

You do realize that when Bitcoin gets a block size increase (and it WILL eventually) then BCash will become completely obsolete?

Just because I prefer the Bitcoin Cash project, doesn't mean I can't see the speculative value in Bitcoin. So I'm not really rooting for Bitcoin Core, just trying to be intellectually honest, and financially rational. I know why you don't get it, because you are still in love with BTC, I was and it's very hard to be open minded after 6 years of steadfast beleif. Only the people that have made the switch know how painful the breakup us.

So, because of this I'm not sure you can really make an objective judgement on the situation. I think your judgement is clouded further still because you seem to be stuck in an us/them mentality (i noticed the shill remark btw, just made me chuckle, you know its lost all meaning now right?). So, I would respectfully disagree with your theory. The only way BTC will get a base block-size increase is if Core end up totally backed into the corner (eg a cashening or the like), they are simply too entrenched in their position, it would be a desperate move in reaction to falling out of favour with the market. If the market has already set a new course, then I think anything core do would be futile. The only thing stopping the market moving now is the speculative value of BTC, and the attachment.

So I think the idea that BCH would become obsolete doesn't really make sense, because Core and Cash have two very different roadmaps. Their stated business model is 2L solutions/offchain. I doubt very much that Core is suddenly going to abandon this and ape Cash with an on-chain strategy. Do you think they would?

I totally get where you are coming from. Bitcoin isn't what I thought from a few years back. Nor what Satoshi planned as far as I can surmise. In my case I started drifting away from bitcoin before the bitcoin cash fork though (however bitcoin still is a huge part of my portfolio for reasons similar to you I imagine). For me the digital cash battle is hands down Dash though. However I do also hold bitcoin cash (most of it retained from the fork) too just in case. Dash is like a digital organism, self funding, protects itself. Scary. Maybe it should be stopped. Can it be stopped?

Sensible. Thats the difference between the old and the new blood

I think your $50k call is a good one, should the break-out hold... it looks weak to me, but you know bitcoin!!!!

[sgbett]

For a bit of fun heres an idea for the top. How does a brief spike to $50k in the very near future sound ?



That would be similar to the first bubble peak of 2013

Then a crash, but first a ginormous spike

I wonder if the reason many fail in TA is that they don't use the log price scale enough.

Log scale (or better said, lack thereof) is only an issue when using trendlines during parabolic trends. Or just the visual appearance can be enough to scare you out of a long when you look at this



On short time frames, there is virtually no difference in the appearance. MA's, fibo, indicators are unaffected by log vs linear

50k is very possible in the very near future. Could come in the next couple of weeks

Yah non-log is always scary over long term, but also so entertaining

[sgbett]

Looks to me like the most recent Tether injection has not resulted in the uptrend resuming with the same strength it was... i've trimmed my BTC exposure. Good luck to all remaining longs! ;P

(more fool me if it suddenly blasts through 20k though hehe!)

[fabiorem]

Looks to me like the most recent Tether injection has not resulted in the uptrend resuming with the same strength it was... i've trimmed my BTC exposure. Good luck to all remaining longs! ;P

(more fool me if it suddenly blasts through 20k though hehe!)

Anyone can buy bitcoin, including the banksters.

So its easy to imagine they shorting it after CME futures launch, to win their bets and create a snowball effect.

Luckily for us, the positions are being quickly bought by people eager to jump in.

[Joe200]

Looks to me like the most recent Tether injection has not resulted in the uptrend resuming with the same strength it was... i've trimmed my BTC exposure. Good luck to all remaining longs! ;P

(more fool me if it suddenly blasts through 20k though hehe!)

I am feeling so woozy, I am about to vomit. What is going on with the price? Help.

[STT]

Read a bit further up the thread, I'm what some might call a "bcash shill" and even I am saying we could see anything up to $80k in the short term.

I don't get it sgbett. How did you become a BCash shill and still be rooting for Bitcoin?

You do realize that when Bitcoin gets a block size increase (and it WILL eventually) then BCash will become completely obsolete?

Pity its taking so long.   I think the fix for transactions has to be scalable, this is a favourite criticism of many mainstream pundits that this whole crypto 'economy' is just a side show and would fail if tested.
So far BTC fee structure has proven them right which should not have been allowed to occur really.   I think any solution has to allow side chains of some sort and security is selectable by the user by the needs they have and of course the size of the transaction.   We dont need coffee to the same security as a house purchase clearly, but the layout of BTC so far lacks that clarity.

The top is nearer 19 to 20k and the current pullback is within that bullish rise.   I'm quite surprised people are so wary when not a vast sell in percentage terms.   All the way back to 15,713 is still quite strong.  A mid way marker for the nervous I will call $17,155    thats just a speed hump between those two larger boundaries

[ha_ham_bk]

Hello,

Its been a while.

Imagine for a second that we are nearing the blow off top, I'm looking out for where we might ultimately form a new baseline (background)

I'm going to say ~$3700 looks good



As you all know, this run up started around $200

$200 to $3700 is $3500 increase. If we do a fib retrace of 78.6%, working the math we end up with that $3500 representing 12.4% of the overall expected gain before it corrects. That gives 3500/0.124 => $16300 gain.

$16,300 + starting point of $200 = $16,500

Think about $ 50000

[Torque]

Instead of your top, I'm calling a BOTTOM @ $16,500.

[sgbett]

Instead of your top, I'm calling a BOTTOM @ $16,500.

Heh. Not as easy as it looks this speculation game

So,  just to put into perspective how great I am lets do some math.

Say you bought in at the previous ATH of $1260, and you sold when I called top at $16500. You made 1300% by being able to see what was coming with reasonable accuracy.

Instead you held because "that sgbett is a hack, he's a BCH shill just trash talking BTC because he wants it to crash. All that talk of him still having some is BS, he's lying". (despite a 6 year history of being pretty straight up honest, being trivially identifiable as a real human being, with a real reputation)

right now its $11,8 and falling your profit is 936% and you are holding, what do you do?

[sgbett]

Instead of your top, I'm calling a BOTTOM @ $16,500.

Think fast buddy, if it breaches $11,2 no more support til around $9,9...

So much easier to make a decision when you have time to think about it.