Calling top at $16500 (New speculation: Guess the price 19 Feb 2021!)

[sgbett]

I’ve played this game before

Your max downside is $1000
My max downside is infinite.

I *never* short anything. (Except fiat!)

How about, end of 2018 as a fair approximation of “ever again”

If I win I want $1k in BCH
You win I’ll send $1k in BTC

Bitstamp.

So you say it will be under $1000 by end of December?

Where do I say that?

The bet amount is £1k the price is $10k and the deadline is the end of the year.

If it goes under you lose if it gets to end of year without going below you win.

[BTC-Graphicdesigns]

You wrote :

Your max downside is $1000

So you meant $10000 RIGHT?

When exactly end of the year -> set a date.

And we will be using Bitstamp right -> send a link.

[sgbett]

You wrote :

Your max downside is $1000

So you meant $10000 RIGHT?

When exactly end of the year -> set a date.

And we will be using Bitstamp right -> send a link.

Yes, because thats what "max downside" means. Its the maximum possible loss for you if you were to bet 0.1BTC because if the price goes to $10k and you have to pay me 0.1BTC that means you are $1000 worth of BTC out of pocket.

End of year means the end of the year. Thats when the clock strikes midnight Dec 31st 2018 (UTC). If at that point it never went below $10k on bitstamp. I pay you $1000 in BTC. Within 7 days.

If at any point prior to that it goes below $10,000 on bitstamp you send me $1000 in BCH. Within 7 days.

https://www.bitstamp.net (you had to ask for a link to bitstamp!?)

I fully realise that this is an entirely one way bet, because in the event you win I will pay, whereas when you lose I expect you to renege. You are an anonymous account, you haven't really got any reputation to consider. I am a bitcoin OG, a real person, with integrity and so if I lose I am compelled to go through with my promise.

Even knowing that to be likely, I'm still making the bet because that's how confident I am that I won't lose.

[MrBigHang]

You wrote :

Your max downside is $1000

So you meant $10000 RIGHT?

When exactly end of the year -> set a date.

And we will be using Bitstamp right -> send a link.

Yes, because thats what "max downside" means. Its the maximum possible loss for you if you were to bet 0.1BTC because if the price goes to $10k and you have to pay me 0.1BTC that means you are $1000 worth of BTC out of pocket.

End of year means the end of the year. Thats when the clock strikes midnight Dec 31st 2018 (UTC). If at that point it never went below $10k on bitstamp. I pay you $1000 in BTC. Within 7 days.

If at any point prior to that it goes below $10,000 on bitstamp you send me $1000 in BCH. Within 7 days.

https://www.bitstamp.net (you had to ask for a link to bitstamp!?)

I fully realise that this is an entirely one way bet, because in the event you win I will pay, whereas when you lose I expect you to renege. You are an anonymous account, you haven't really got any reputation to consider. I am a bitcoin OG, a real person, with integrity and so if I lose I am compelled to go through with my promise.

Even knowing that to be likely, I'm still making the bet because that's how confident I am that I won't lose.

If you guys are serious, I can hold the coins in escrow for you guys.  Fee would be ten percent of the total coins.  

We can make a skype phone call and I'm willing to share my drivers license to see this deal go through.

[tertius993]

You wrote :

Your max downside is $1000

So you meant $10000 RIGHT?

When exactly end of the year -> set a date.

And we will be using Bitstamp right -> send a link.

Yes, because thats what "max downside" means. Its the maximum possible loss for you if you were to bet 0.1BTC because if the price goes to $10k and you have to pay me 0.1BTC that means you are $1000 worth of BTC out of pocket.

End of year means the end of the year. Thats when the clock strikes midnight Dec 31st 2018 (UTC). If at that point it never went below $10k on bitstamp. I pay you $1000 in BTC. Within 7 days.

If at any point prior to that it goes below $10,000 on bitstamp you send me $1000 in BCH. Within 7 days.

https://www.bitstamp.net (you had to ask for a link to bitstamp!?)

I fully realise that this is an entirely one way bet, because in the event you win I will pay, whereas when you lose I expect you to renege. You are an anonymous account, you haven't really got any reputation to consider. I am a bitcoin OG, a real person, with integrity and so if I lose I am compelled to go through with my promise.

Even knowing that to be likely, I'm still making the bet because that's how confident I am that I won't lose.

I can hold the the money in escrow for you guys.  Fee would be five percent of the total.

Err, think about the terms of the bet for a moment and you'll see why that's a bit pointless.

[MrBigHang]

You wrote :

Your max downside is $1000

So you meant $10000 RIGHT?

When exactly end of the year -> set a date.

And we will be using Bitstamp right -> send a link.

Yes, because thats what "max downside" means. Its the maximum possible loss for you if you were to bet 0.1BTC because if the price goes to $10k and you have to pay me 0.1BTC that means you are $1000 worth of BTC out of pocket.

End of year means the end of the year. Thats when the clock strikes midnight Dec 31st 2018 (UTC). If at that point it never went below $10k on bitstamp. I pay you $1000 in BTC. Within 7 days.

If at any point prior to that it goes below $10,000 on bitstamp you send me $1000 in BCH. Within 7 days.

https://www.bitstamp.net (you had to ask for a link to bitstamp!?)

I fully realise that this is an entirely one way bet, because in the event you win I will pay, whereas when you lose I expect you to renege. You are an anonymous account, you haven't really got any reputation to consider. I am a bitcoin OG, a real person, with integrity and so if I lose I am compelled to go through with my promise.

Even knowing that to be likely, I'm still making the bet because that's how confident I am that I won't lose.

I can hold the the money in escrow for you guys.  Fee would be five percent of the total.

Err, think about the terms of the bet for a moment and you'll see why that's a bit pointless.

Not sure what you are referring too.  If they are serious and honorable men, they will find a workable solution.  I don't see either of them paying out without someone to mediate the agreement.

[Fippy]

This is quite old.. But we all know that bitcoin can not be worth more than $16500 right now, it is full of huge sell walls in those levels and it is impossible for bitcoin to break those walls at the moment (with the actual fud + incredible fear on almost all the social media)

[removebeforeflight]

I guess Bitcoin can be worth more than $20000 in another one or two months. We cannot expect the highest price to be constant always and need to wait for bitcoin to slowly acquire the highest price instead of sudden spike and then sudden down side. Always slow and steady wins the race and it would be constant as well for substantial growth.

[tertius993]

You wrote :

Your max downside is $1000

So you meant $10000 RIGHT?

When exactly end of the year -> set a date.

And we will be using Bitstamp right -> send a link.

Yes, because thats what "max downside" means. Its the maximum possible loss for you if you were to bet 0.1BTC because if the price goes to $10k and you have to pay me 0.1BTC that means you are $1000 worth of BTC out of pocket.

End of year means the end of the year. Thats when the clock strikes midnight Dec 31st 2018 (UTC). If at that point it never went below $10k on bitstamp. I pay you $1000 in BTC. Within 7 days.

If at any point prior to that it goes below $10,000 on bitstamp you send me $1000 in BCH. Within 7 days.

https://www.bitstamp.net (you had to ask for a link to bitstamp!?)

I fully realise that this is an entirely one way bet, because in the event you win I will pay, whereas when you lose I expect you to renege. You are an anonymous account, you haven't really got any reputation to consider. I am a bitcoin OG, a real person, with integrity and so if I lose I am compelled to go through with my promise.

Even knowing that to be likely, I'm still making the bet because that's how confident I am that I won't lose.

I can hold the the money in escrow for you guys.  Fee would be five percent of the total.

Err, think about the terms of the bet for a moment and you'll see why that's a bit pointless.

Not sure what you are referring too.  If they are serious and honorable men, they will find a workable solution.  I don't see either of them paying out without someone to mediate the agreement.

Ignoring the fact that if they are “serious and honourable men” they would pay up escrow or no escrow, just read the terms.

The amount payable is variable based on the future dollar value of BTC and/or BCH, but is payable in only one  of the two currencies depending on who wins. It is not a traditional wager where each party puts in a fixed amount and the winner takes all. So how much BTC and BCH would go into escrow today?

[sgbett]

Correct. Not to mention there is only one of us that intends to pay up in the very unlikely event they lose

[sgbett]

*tumbleweed*

[sgbett]

Paging BTC-Graphicdesigns...

you were so confident before.... where you at? Surely you are convinced the resistance at 13k can never be breached

[sgbett]

Dear BTC-Graphicdesigns,

I hope you are tethering the storm. It has been some time now since I heard from you, and I hope that you and your family are doing well. These are treacherous times, and ever I feel the advance of the red army. Fearful for my life, I remain in the bunker. Let us pray for better times.

I have heard news from the front that supplies have arrived from the tetheral reserve, it fills me with joy to think that our green comrades might once again march upon this battlefield. I only hope that, godspeed, it is enough.

Yours truly

Matilda (sgbett)

[BTC-Graphicdesigns]

Dear BTC-Graphicdesigns,

I hope you are tethering the storm. It has been some time now since I heard from you, and I hope that you and your family are doing well. These are treacherous times, and ever I feel the advance of the red army. Fearful for my life, I remain in the bunker. Let us pray for better times.

I have heard news from the front that supplies have arrived from the tetheral reserve, it fills me with joy to think that our green comrades might once again march upon this battlefield. I only hope that, godspeed, it is enough.

Yours truly

Matilda (sgbett)

Hi sgbett,

I guess I took my mouth to full this time. I did a lot of Research in the last couple of days and thus I have come to the following conclusion:

China and South Korea are trying to push the BTC Price as far as possible. This seems to be working great. Also Roger Ver and the clown CEO from Bitmain are playing a big role regarding BTC Price going down. So if I take your bet I will definatly loose.
I am out - thank you anyway.

P.S. will be very interesting to see the BTC vs. BCC Price end of 2018. I would be willing to take a bet that BTC will have a higher Price than BCC.

[sgbett]

I can respect that. Not really about the money for me, I just call what I see - this is speculation subforum!

Whatever the reasons may be, looks like we have a long road ahead. Could be a long drawn out bear again.

Don’t get me wrong I’m HODLing. Just heavy BCH ironically that is down more in % terms so who’s laughing now!

[BTC-Graphicdesigns]

I can respect that. Not really about the money for me, I just call what I see - this is speculation subforum!

Whatever the reasons may be, looks like we have a long road ahead. Could be a long drawn out bear again.

Don’t get me wrong I’m HODLing. Just heavy BCH ironically that is down more in % terms so who’s laughing now!

For me BCH is a scam - but that is just my opinion. I think Roger Ver and that Bitmain clown (I can never remeber his name?) are in it together.
So like I said, I would be happy to take a bet against BCH and say that the BTC price will be higher than the BCH end of the year (2018).

[sgbett]

I can respect that. Not really about the money for me, I just call what I see - this is speculation subforum!

Whatever the reasons may be, looks like we have a long road ahead. Could be a long drawn out bear again.

Don’t get me wrong I’m HODLing. Just heavy BCH ironically that is down more in % terms so who’s laughing now!

For me BCH is a scam - but that is just my opinion. I think Roger Ver and that Bitmain clown (I can never remeber his name?) are in it together.
So like I said, I would be happy to take a bet against BCH and say that the BTC price will be higher than the BCH end of the year (2018).

Time will tell

Not interested in that bet at all, too much of a gamble. It might take 6 months, it might take 6 years. I'm in this for long haul. When it flips I already "won the bet" so to speak.

BTC below 10k this year was very low risk for me, because its written all over the charts.

BCH > BTC is too unpredictable. I think it might happen if the bottom drops out of the market... this still only seems like the start of down trend to me, but who knows. If that happens then BCH would probably recover better in the long term as it has better usability than BTC. That all depends on what happens with LN though. Then there is whether or not the price drop will affect the DARI such that more miners move over to BCH... way too many variables for a short term prediction.

[MrBigHang]

Time for someone to pay up.  Bitcoin dipped below 10k.  I bought some at 9600.

[sgbett]

Time for someone to pay up.  Bitcoin dipped below 10k.  I bought some at 9600.

Bitstamp low is still $10,162 in any case he didn't take the bet. So point is moot. (maybe he still would have won!)

So looking back at the OP. The high on stamp was 19500 on the nose. As fabiorem correctly pointed out the 0.618 fib level is worth paying attention to. At ~$7500 from the actual top this corresponds nicely with the top of that big red correction candle first half of november.

here is a colourful fellow illustrating the above...

Shouldnt the correction be to 0.618 level?

At least this is what it looks like historically: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1J19gwjumJ8

The 0.618 level in your retracement is between 6k and 7k.

Also, notice theres only one red candle above it, which can point out to institutional investors joining the market.

So I suspect we'll continue to bleed down til $7500 at which point there will be some significant resistance.

If that doesn't hold then, the next leg down will take us to the region of $4100 (0.214 * 19500) which corresponds well with some high volume action around that price point 14/15th September that pumped that looked to be the catalyst for this run.

Thats the bottom - $4100.

Potential scenarios that invalidate the whole thing:

- The Cashening^TM
- LN success/failure
- China banning bitcoin

Good Luck traders!

(obvs one of those is a joke, i'll let the reader choose which!)

[sgbett]

<snip>
Bitstamp low is still $10,162 in any case he didn't take the bet. So point is moot. (maybe he still would have won!)
<snip>

That escalated quickly!