Calling top at $16500 (New speculation: Guess the price 19 Feb 2021!)

[BitHodler]

So if this one crashes below the 2013 ATH, it is most probably finished.

That's a pretty dramatic way of thinking. I don't see why the market will go much lower from current levels. Compare the market last year to current market, and you'll see a pretty similar pattern.

$1000 last year, $10,000 this year, and the market is going exactly in the same direction. Based on that, it should reach its lowest point between the $7500-$8500 range, which basically means that we're almost there.

It's the perfect buying time in that regard. Time however will tell whether or not it'll be the same as last year, but I am pretty confident and went ahead and bought myself some sub $9000 coins.

[Tzupy]

I sense a serious disturbance in the force.

(That happened quicker than I thought!)

Can we agree a the top was in yet? Can we start trying to call the bottom now?

Uhh... I thought it was obvious the top was in (at least for the next months), and that you called a 4100$ bottom two weeks ago... Am I missing something?

Anyway, 3d MACD is still positive on Bitfinex and Bitstamp, but negative on Bithumb and Bitflyer, while the 12h and 24h are going deeper into negative.
I am looking at the July 2013 bottom and recovery and trying to figure out which time frames would work best to guess the timing for the new bull market.
To me it looks like the 24h MACD crossing (because of strong buys for a couple of weeks) should be the best indicator, followed by bullish double bottoms.

[sgbett]

I sense a serious disturbance in the force.

(That happened quicker than I thought!)

Can we agree a the top was in yet? Can we start trying to call the bottom now?

Uhh... I thought it was obvious the top was in (at least for the next months), and that you called a 4100$ bottom two weeks ago... Am I missing something?

Anyway, 3d MACD is still positive on Bitfinex and Bitstamp, but negative on Bithumb and Bitflyer, while the 12h and 24h are going deeper into negative.
I am looking at the July 2013 bottom and recovery and trying to figure out which time frames would work best to guess the timing for the new bull market.
To me it looks like the 24h MACD crossing (because of strong buys for a couple of weeks) should be the best indicator, followed by bullish double bottoms.

I sure think it’s in but reading Twitter and there is still a lot of opinion that this is just a pullback before the next leg up. I mean im not ruling that out but the people suggesting it seem pretty delusional in the way they can’t even consider the possibility that perhaps there is more downside before the next consolidation phase from which Some coin or other will start the next leg up.

[dinofelis]

So if this one crashes below the 2013 ATH, it is most probably finished.

That's a pretty dramatic way of thinking. I don't see why the market will go much lower from current levels. Compare the market last year to current market, and you'll see a pretty similar pattern.

$1000 last year, $10,000 this year, and the market is going exactly in the same direction. Based on that, it should reach its lowest point between the $7500-$8500 range, which basically means that we're almost there.

It's the perfect buying time in that regard. Time however will tell whether or not it'll be the same as last year, but I am pretty confident and went ahead and bought myself some sub $9000 coins.

We have an almost exact carbon copy of the 2013-2014 situation, except that it is grossly x15 scaled up.  Last year, we didn't come out of a monster-run up.  This is the typical behaviour of a speculative bubble bursting, like it burst in 2013 (and in 2011).  The remarkable thing in bitcoin, is that it keeps coming back.  Usually, an asset that bubbles, is dead afterwards, but bitcoin is like the Phenix, rising from its ashes.

You have to understand the mechanism of speculative bubbles.  Last year at this time, there wasn't any.  This is why short-range price analysis doesn't work.  There wasn't an army of bag holders.  In fact, once we broke the last ATH around $1100, the last bag holders from 2013 got free. You have to understand that after a speculative bubble, there's a whole army of burned newcomer-greater-fools, half-panicked at their stupid move of buying at the top and being a bag holder.  It is the behaviour of that army of bag-holders that determines the crash that follows.  If you look at the volumes last year during the run-up, there must be a huge amount of frustrated bag holders that curse themselves they got into this foolish game, and only want one thing: get out with limited damage.  The more they try to get out, the lower the price gets, and the lower the price gets, the more "early birds" of last year start feeling uncomfortable, cashing out before it is too late.

It is only when this huge, invisible sell wall is eaten, that one can get higher again.  Given the huge amount of money that people spent during the run-up, that wall is huge.   In the beginning, this is compensated by "bargain-buy-the-dips" of others.  But as they get somewhat burned too, they will wait until it "bottoms out".    With a big, and increasing army of burned bag holders, and less and less "dip buyers", more and more "waiting for the bottom", it can only go down until all of this is resorbed.

[junoreactor]

So if this one crashes below the 2013 ATH, it is most probably finished.

That's a pretty dramatic way of thinking. I don't see why the market will go much lower from current levels. Compare the market last year to current market, and you'll see a pretty similar pattern.

$1000 last year, $10,000 this year, and the market is going exactly in the same direction. Based on that, it should reach its lowest point between the $7500-$8500 range, which basically means that we're almost there.

It's the perfect buying time in that regard. Time however will tell whether or not it'll be the same as last year, but I am pretty confident and went ahead and bought myself some sub $9000 coins.

We have an almost exact carbon copy of the 2013-2014 situation, except that it is grossly x15 scaled up.  Last year, we didn't come out of a monster-run up.  This is the typical behaviour of a speculative bubble bursting, like it burst in 2013 (and in 2011).  The remarkable thing in bitcoin, is that it keeps coming back.  Usually, an asset that bubbles, is dead afterwards, but bitcoin is like the Phenix, rising from its ashes.

You have to understand the mechanism of speculative bubbles.  Last year at this time, there wasn't any.  This is why short-range price analysis doesn't work.  There wasn't an army of bag holders.  In fact, once we broke the last ATH around $1100, the last bag holders from 2013 got free. You have to understand that after a speculative bubble, there's a whole army of burned newcomer-greater-fools, half-panicked at their stupid move of buying at the top and being a bag holder.  It is the behaviour of that army of bag-holders that determines the crash that follows.  If you look at the volumes last year during the run-up, there must be a huge amount of frustrated bag holders that curse themselves they got into this foolish game, and only want one thing: get out with limited damage.  The more they try to get out, the lower the price gets, and the lower the price gets, the more "early birds" of last year start feeling uncomfortable, cashing out before it is too late.

It is only when this huge, invisible sell wall is eaten, that one can get higher again.  Given the huge amount of money that people spent during the run-up, that wall is huge.   In the beginning, this is compensated by "bargain-buy-the-dips" of others.  But as they get somewhat burned too, they will wait until it "bottoms out".    With a big, and increasing army of burned bag holders, and less and less "dip buyers", more and more "waiting for the bottom", it can only go down until all of this is resorbed.

In that case, the number of $4,100 makes sense. It is important to stand back and learn from this, especially newbies who have been here for less than a year (this is my case as well but was lucky enough to buy at circa $3,500), if price goes to $4,100 as predicted here, sell or not sell, you decide but in both cases you will gain experience that will make you wiser next time.
We were all newbies at some point, sometimes you have to learn the hard way.

[fabiorem]

Sgbett, you have a crystal ball. Are you competing with masterluc to be a cripto-wizard?

We are really going to $4100. Didnt want to believe it, but now its clear by the charts.

[Sitarow]

Sgbett, you have a crystal ball. Are you competing with masterluc to be a cripto-wizard?

We are really going to $4100. Didnt want to believe it, but now its clear by the charts.

"Bear or Bull" you cant ignore how monumental tomorrows proceedings will be for the cryptocurrency trading and investing.

[sgbett]

So if this one crashes below the 2013 ATH, it is most probably finished.

That's a pretty dramatic way of thinking. I don't see why the market will go much lower from current levels. Compare the market last year to current market, and you'll see a pretty similar pattern.

$1000 last year, $10,000 this year, and the market is going exactly in the same direction. Based on that, it should reach its lowest point between the $7500-$8500 range, which basically means that we're almost there.

It's the perfect buying time in that regard. Time however will tell whether or not it'll be the same as last year, but I am pretty confident and went ahead and bought myself some sub $9000 coins.

We have an almost exact carbon copy of the 2013-2014 situation, except that it is grossly x15 scaled up.  Last year, we didn't come out of a monster-run up.  This is the typical behaviour of a speculative bubble bursting, like it burst in 2013 (and in 2011).  The remarkable thing in bitcoin, is that it keeps coming back.  Usually, an asset that bubbles, is dead afterwards, but bitcoin is like the Phenix, rising from its ashes.

You have to understand the mechanism of speculative bubbles.  Last year at this time, there wasn't any.  This is why short-range price analysis doesn't work.  There wasn't an army of bag holders.  In fact, once we broke the last ATH around $1100, the last bag holders from 2013 got free. You have to understand that after a speculative bubble, there's a whole army of burned newcomer-greater-fools, half-panicked at their stupid move of buying at the top and being a bag holder.  It is the behaviour of that army of bag-holders that determines the crash that follows.  If you look at the volumes last year during the run-up, there must be a huge amount of frustrated bag holders that curse themselves they got into this foolish game, and only want one thing: get out with limited damage.  The more they try to get out, the lower the price gets, and the lower the price gets, the more "early birds" of last year start feeling uncomfortable, cashing out before it is too late.

It is only when this huge, invisible sell wall is eaten, that one can get higher again.  Given the huge amount of money that people spent during the run-up, that wall is huge.   In the beginning, this is compensated by "bargain-buy-the-dips" of others.  But as they get somewhat burned too, they will wait until it "bottoms out".    With a big, and increasing army of burned bag holders, and less and less "dip buyers", more and more "waiting for the bottom", it can only go down until all of this is resorbed.

In that case, the number of $4,100 makes sense. It is important to stand back and learn from this, especially newbies who have been here for less than a year (this is my case as well but was lucky enough to buy at circa $3,500), if price goes to $4,100 as predicted here, sell or not sell, you decide but in both cases you will gain experience that will make you wiser next time.
We were all newbies at some point, sometimes you have to learn the hard way.

Some hard lessons for those that refused to see what was unfolding.

To recap:



The run-up was telegraphed mid 2015, hard to know where it is going to end when you are at the bottom but past run-ups gave a ballpark in terms of order of magnitude (ie 5/6 figures)

Once the run-up is underway its just about watching sentiment, and behaviour. It wasn't until December that it finally looked like we were in total speculative mania phase and though I missed the top by a few $k I think its better to be a little early, than to be hanging on as it drops emotionally attached to your position and hoping it's going to go back up. Locking in those 7500% gains is far more important than trying to squeeze every last penny then being paralysed as the correction unfolds.

The final piece of the puzzle is where we stop. The speed of this decline is pointing to a monster bounce way back up 13/14k region over a period of months, and then another much longer drawn out decline. During this time there'll be much "I Told you so"-ing. Plenty of panic buying back in, but matched by plenty of "last-chance before the downtrend resumes" selling. It all points to one thing. Bottom discovery.

The market is way bigger than it was back in 2015, giving it much more inertia. It's going to take a long time.

The biggest problem BTC has is that every time it has arisen from the ashes, it has been because of its underlying utility. Now, with such small market dominance, it is unclear whether that part of the cycle can begin again.

This is where people learn what it is to HODL.

[sgbett]

Sgbett, you have a crystal ball. Are you competing with masterluc to be a cripto-wizard?

We are really going to $4100. Didnt want to believe it, but now its clear by the charts.

I dunno, just throwing arrows in the dark like everyone else. The only advantage I have, if any, is having seen these patterns before.

So provided the pattern repeats, you can gauge roughly what is going to happen. Because each time you get a much larger influx of new speculators, that will all behave en-masse the same way as the previous group. Just like "the chart" that has been posted so many times, its almost self fulfilling!

Of course you can never be sure it will repeat though!!! At some point there is a critical mass of die hards/experiences traders holding enough that the influx of speculative cash wont have quite the same effect.

[Sitarow]

I know that in the past we were a small issue to most bankers. In fact bitcoin was refered to as "RAT POISON".

However bitcoin its network and tech serves a greater need beyond how it is being used today. Also we have missuse via ICO's and altcoin trading pairs.

Investment, monetary transactions, or store of wealth, are but a few applications for the tech.

Dispite market manipulation to score that last dip. The future looks bright.

http://business.financialpost.com/technology/big-changes-coming-as-bitcoin-futures-trading-etfs-launch

[fabiorem]

In fact bitcoin was refered to as "RAT POISON".

And the bankers were the rats?

[junoreactor]

Your prediction deserves more credit than it has received on this topic (understandably so in a way given that most are losing money).
I was still waiting for the support of $7,500 and see how the market would behave. The first time, bitcoin price went from $7,700 to $9,000 within a few hours, but yesterday it decided to break this support, I immediately sold my bitcoin to EUR and will certainly buy again around $5,000 or below.
Guys, take this opportunity to do the right thing right now. Instead of getting depressed and whining, see the opportunity and trade. There are not too many analysts agreeing on a price going below $5,000, it is not too late to profit from it.
Just my opinion (not an advice).  

[Tzupy]

...
Also, in the event of a large dump, the 3 day MACD would cross into negative, and this would mean that the recovery will take longer. I still doubt any dump below 6k$.

3 day MACD went into negative, and we almost reached 6k$. But this is not the final bottom, IMO there's at least another high volume dump until there, probably two.
And it's going to take some time and a strong rebound until the next high volume dumps, probably good for trading.
Sgbett's prediction of 4100$ doesn't sound so far fetched anymore. Remember to buy when there will be blood on the streets, even if it's going to be your own.

[junoreactor]

Looks like there is a support (sort of) right now at $6,000, let's see if it lasts as long as the previous support at $7,500.
It has a little bit bounced back up to $6150 but this is exactly what happened few days ago.
What's strange is that everything is down, crypto currencies but also Wall Street?
Where's the money going right now? Gold?

[glub0x]

Looks like there is a support (sort of) right now at $6,000, let's see if it lasts as long as the previous support at $7,500.
It has a little bit bounced back up to $6150 but this is exactly what happened few days ago.
What's strange is that everything is down, crypto currencies but also Wall Street?
Where's the money going right now? Gold?

right now, fiat.
The question is, where all this fiat is going to flow?
i would go for gold and real estate

[sgbett]

Looks like there is a support (sort of) right now at $6,000, let's see if it lasts as long as the previous support at $7,500.
It has a little bit bounced back up to $6150 but this is exactly what happened few days ago.
What's strange is that everything is down, crypto currencies but also Wall Street?
Where's the money going right now? Gold?

Yes support at ~$6000! This is eerily the same as first bounce from MtGox (around 68% - fibonacci anyone ). Which inevitably begs the question what what that Goxtrapolate to...



So here we have the gox collapse in broad strokes with the lower highs and lower lows to the bottom.

Assuming the initial sell-offs are correlated in magnitude, we can see that this market is playing out slower - expected as its bigger. Approx 2.8 times slower to be exact.

If we plug the % moves, and the duration (x2.83) into the current ATH we get a *very* simplistic picture of what would happen if this plays out like gox.

Note: I don't think it necessarily will, but I have been thinking $4100 for the absolute long term bottom was looking a bit optimistic considering how for this first move went.

[Tzupy]

New prediction by sgbett: 2483$ bottom on 19th Feb 2021. At first I wanted to offer you a digital hug, but I strongly disagree with both price and time targets.
So far we have no reason to believe that this correction is not a wave 4, and these wave 4s tend to be shorter in bitcoin (I'm looking forward to the wave 5).
IMO only a long period of bad news can lead us to a Feb 2021 bottom (without a new ATH in between, something like 70k$ in 2019).

[fabiorem]

February 2021 is very far. It will rise to 100k before it fall to that bottom.

[sgbett]

New prediction by sgbett: 2483$ bottom on 19th Feb 2021. At first I wanted to offer you a digital hug, but I strongly disagree with both price and time targets.
So far we have no reason to believe that this correction is not a wave 4, and these wave 4s tend to be shorter in bitcoin (I'm looking forward to the wave 5).
IMO only a long period of bad news can lead us to a Feb 2021 bottom (without a new ATH in between, something like 70k$ in 2019).

I think you are right, its very unlikely it will be a rerun of gox. This was more of thought experiment than a super serious call (certainly wouldn't try and trade it!)

I'm no elliot wave expert but if i had to throw some lines out id say it was something like this...



I'd be v interested to see your count to make it a wave 4? (I'd be even more interested to see wave 5, if it is!)

[Tzupy]

There's not enough information yet for me to draw what I believe will happen. I'd like first to see the local bottom confirmed with a bullish
double bottom in 30min - 1h - 2h MACD, since the current chart has bearish double bottoms. This could happen tonight or tomorrow.
About how the wave 5 will look, well... it will start with a wave 1, which will be hard to distinguish from a bear market at first.
Weekly MACD could drop into negative if the recovery will be slow and people may panic sell and test support on high volume several times.