Calling top at $16500 (New speculation: Guess the price 19 Feb 2021!)

[reactorjuno]

And you only come and update your thread when the price falls more.

But vanish when the price goes up.

Good luck! 

Let's be honest, no one can call a perfect price at date X or date Y, but the trend is clearly down now, I think all year 2018 will be like this, but there are still many bumps, so a good opportunity for profitable trades.

[1715567363]

1715567363

[sgbett]

And you only come and update your thread when the price falls more.

But vanish when the price goes up.

Good luck!  

I aim to not disappoint.

[reactorjuno]

And you only come and update your thread when the price falls more.

But vanish when the price goes up.

Good luck!  

I aim to not disappoint.

A lot of your predictions seem to turn out to be true. What still puzzles me is that your wrote you believe in Bitcoin Cash. Why?

[criptix]

And you only come and update your thread when the price falls more.

But vanish when the price goes up.

Good luck!  

I aim to not disappoint.

A lot of your predictions seem to turn out to be true. What still puzzles me is that your wrote you believe in Bitcoin Cash. Why?

He just wants to dump his free tokens on you  


Btw. i think we found a bottom, resistance at 5.7/8k seems very strong.

[sgbett]

And you only come and update your thread when the price falls more.

But vanish when the price goes up.

Good luck!  

I aim to not disappoint.

A lot of your predictions seem to turn out to be true. What still puzzles me is that your wrote you believe in Bitcoin Cash. Why?

Nothing more than has already been said countless times. The crux of it is that Bitcoin scales on-chain. Heresay, I know.

It seems inevitable to me that bitcoin will replace traditional cash. It also seems inevitable that, along the way, some people will try to stop that happening. Bitcoin was progressing just fine, adoption was progressing just fine. Now it isn't. It didn't happen overnight, take step back and look at how we got here. It started with Gavin's 20 meg, look at the characters involved, the great thing about the internet is there is a permanent record. Look for the reasons that some changed their position. You will find reasons that do not stand scrutiny. Reasons that are circular, unfounded, inexplicable.

Over time BTC started to become something else, and at first I was mad. Then BCH came and carried on where BTC left off. Now I am at peace again.

I repeat: Bitcoin scales on-chain.

I've been zhoutounged, goxxed, labbed, knc'ed ... nothing has changed my original thesis.

People that talk about "dumping bags" or w/e else are people that are just here to make (traditional) money, they are the ones that are pumping and dumping coins wihtout the slightest clue about what it is they are flipping. It's all just numbers on a screen.

I'm here because the world is going to change, and I am along for the ride. I am not pumping... I am quite convinced BTC *and* BCH are likely to both go down from here. I'm fine with that. I've been HODLing (for the longest time - if you know, you know!) i've seen the rise and fall before. I've watched $100 turn to $20. I've also watched $1 turn to $20. Mostly though I've watched 1BCH remain 1BCH. (There was that one time when 1BTC got me 5BCH though, that was fun I honestly cant believe the opportunity is still there, eventually the door will close)

For those trader types out there, the floor for BTC is most certainly *not* in. I can't remember what I said up thread but I think it was something in the region of 3500-4500, if there were no BCH and if BTC had continued then that is where I would expect a bounce.

However things have changed this time around. When we do reach the bottom, only BCH will bounce. There will be no BTC recovery. Utility is the spark that lights the fire of speculative bubbles. BTC has killed utility chasing the "lightning network" which breaks network decentralisation and remakes bitcoin as a traditional hierarchical network. It's a stated objective in the LN whitepaper - section 8.4ish, I think - look for "routing", read their description of LN at scale.

LN is entirely unnecessary (bitcoin scales on-chain remember). It is a shiny thing to distract people. It's a backward step in creating p2p cash. It re-invents the status quo, and blocks native bitcoin adoption. At best devs/users are misguided, at worst it is intentionally hindering bitcoin's adoption.

If its price you are interested in (and its a reasonable proxy for success), remember: S-curve of adoption (driven by users), overlaid with speculative hype cycles (driven by gamblers). Still nothing has proven that model to be wrong. I'd expect it to repeat a few more times at least before it flattens as the weight of adoption far exceeds the gamblers speculative activities.

Did I mention yet? Bitcoin. Scales. On. Chain.

[sgbett]

... I can't remember what I said up thread but I think it was something in the region of 3500-4500...

silly me it's in the title... $2483!

[sgbett]

KEEP WATCHING! 

[onrise]

And you only come and update your thread when the price falls more.

But vanish when the price goes up.

Good luck! 

Let's be honest, no one can call a perfect price at date X or date Y, but the trend is clearly down now, I think all year 2018 will be like this, but there are still many bumps, so a good opportunity for profitable trades.

This trend is useful for all those who had being waiting for the [price to fall so that they could buy and get bigger qty as compared to buying at high price. So if people start buying now will lead to increase in demand and eventually the price will also rise . Also seems the trend will not continue upwards from now on and not other way around.

[Bitcoinaire]

I'm waiting for the inevitable update to this title, ".......{<-oops!} months from now (2018 Update!)."

[sgbett]

I'm waiting for the inevitable update to this title, ".......{<-oops!} months from now (2018 Update!)."

Aw, you know me so well

[sgbett]

oh btw, im *that* good.

[Torque]

Lol, you only show up on your own thread when dumps happen.

Silent as a mouse for months now.

[sgbett]

Lol, you only show up on your own thread when dumps happen.

Silent as a mouse for months now.

Serious question, can you tell the time?

[reactorjuno]

Ok, yes the technical analysis looks quite impressive, however it does not take into account the ETF decision, should be happening at the end of February and then I am not sure the technical analysis will hold when this happens.

Don't get me wrong, I usually believe in TA but it's never 100% right especially with big news potentially coming soon.

Just my 2 cents.

[sgbett]

Ok, yes the technical analysis looks quite impressive, however it does not take into account the ETF decision, should be happening at the end of February and then I am not sure the technical analysis will hold when this happens.

Don't get me wrong, I usually believe in TA but it's never 100% right especially with big news potentially coming soon.

Just my 2 cents.

Hey Juno, long time no see Lets be honest that post above - luckiest call I ever made but man what a call heheh.

So yeah I agree ETF in feb could have an effect on the fundamentals, but fundamentals and market madness are often fighting for dominance!

Long way to february though, and we could see plenty of price action before then. Not to mention what is going on the other side of the Bitcoin pond.

[STT]

Fundamentals and technicals dont really oppose each other.  A break of trend if it occurred would be fine in TA and might be what accumulates into a move in February

lot of your predictions seem to turn out to be true. What still puzzles me is that your wrote you believe in Bitcoin Cash. Why?

At the time of this thread, transactions on BTC were costing $30 so I can forgive people believing an alternative had to be found.  However that solution was needed outside the BTC protocol and I believe in future the development team however they may alter over the years can keep adapting.  If they dont adapt then yes BTC will get overtaken by some idea or new innovation, that would just be technology but I dont think thats this year just because price recoils from its shot upwards doesnt especially make it negative overall.   Prospects have improved over the last year with better use of BTC possible now then previous.

[Febo]

Calling top at $16500 (Even Newer!: $2483 bottom 19 Feb 2021 MtGox said so!)

You are calling bottom on February 2021 or I dont understand that title?   If I dont understand it, when do you expect BTC to bottom?

[STT]

I wasnt the one calling the bottom price, someone mentioned the ETF decision which at latest would resolve in February as I understand it and thats the one based on a futures market not plain holding of BTC.

Many commodities are traded via futures as I understand it and in fact some brokers restrict me from holding such ETF as its consider sophisicated.  That kind of restriction and inbuilt regulation by a market in Chicago rather then the plain BTC price which is placed on unregulated exchanges all around the world might well receive a favourable decision.   Its the best hope of a ETF passing basically by a few peoples reckoning, my personal take is its less then 50/50 chance for any of these ETF to be approved but I agree that futures holding in a ETF resembles the best chance.

So yeah I agree ETF in feb could have an effect on the fundamentals, but fundamentals and market madness are often fighting for dominance!

Long way to february though

Thats 2019 Feb, 2021 would relate better to a change in BTC protocol and a reduction in the block rewards.  The title change needs to be better explained or I've missed the post for that one

[reactorjuno]

At this stage it really all depends at which price you bought Bitcoin and it depends if you are patient or not. Of course if you bought Bitcoin at $18000 I feel sorry for you.
Now we can that historically when a price acts like this, it takes several years to see it rise again. In fact, we could have to wait 3 to 5 years before seeing BTC above $10000 again...

Example, the chart of the dot-com bubble:




But as the Internet bubble, it would have been stupid to stop investing in companies like Amazon or Google when we see the current price. Well, it's stupid to stop investing in Bitcoin if you have faith. Either we believe in technology and we think long term or we want to make money short term and forget about it. I think at this stage it's all about Bitcoin and the technology behind, will it become mainstream one day or not. People tend to forget this question.

[fabiorem]

However things have changed this time around. When we do reach the bottom, only BCH will bounce.

What version of BCH? Because I already saw three.  

If BTC is being handled to corporations, what can we say of BCH, which was heavily sponsored by Bitmain? And the first fork of it, announced by Jihan Wu? And this new fork, from doctor Craig?

They keep forking BCH, only to fuel ego wars. What this have to do with a P2P idea of money?

Why are they forking it, in the first place? Each fork they do, they weak BCH as a idea.

Also, if they are dumping BTC to cover the costs of their mining wars... those who will be buying it, are the bankers which they disagree with. Dont you see here a contradiction? Dont you see these bankers will use these cheap coins to fuel their projects?

My thought is that BCH devs should focus in payment methods, not on ego wars. Forget this nonsense about "Satoshi's vision", focus on the technicals and prove that you are a viable option. We can only dream of a anarcho-capitalist utopia, because the NPCs, who legitimize the power of the State and the banks, and which are the majority, will not let us go there. We can only have anarchy on the internet, but even the internet is being censored these days.