Calling top at $16500 (New speculation: Guess the price 19 Feb 2021!)

[sgbett]

Thanks Im not always right but something about a broken clock

So yeah 2021... nobody wants to hear my opinion about what happens then

I'll put it this way, the mood out there whilst starting to falter is still majority bullish and to me that means the bear market is not, and never was over. These huge long term moves are the ones most likely to reflect the cycle of greed and fear.

I've seen a few of these boom boost cycles, and for anyone that remembers the euphoria on the way up - then consider that there has to be a comparable amount of despair on the way down. Until you get that capitulation phase then the market cannot find a new base to launch from.

For me, threads like this one https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5188987.0 are an invaluable guide to sentiment.

Thats a prediction thread for end of 2019. Only 10 people guessed lower than me ($6383). The mean guess was ~$13,500 the median was ~$11,400.

Given the price at the time was around $8300 I think should gives a *strong* reading!

Everyone is still caught in the "return to normal" fear has not yet set in (it feels like its coming very soon though). At which point you see how it is quite possible to continue the slide all the way to ~$2,5k

It takes so much longer because the market is so much bigger now (more participants) it's more like an oil tanker now. Compare it to e.g the 32 run-up back in Jun '11, over in weeks and by December the whole bear market had played out. Much smaller market, much quicker resolution.

It looks like the timescale I've suggested still fits. Eventually all the speculators are shaken free, leaving only the underlying utility based price.

That's where BTC might have a problem. Actual organic use of the BTC blockchain is limited to being a settlement layer for one of several new custodial solutions. LN, Liquid etc perhaps they will have some value. As it has chosen not to scale to allow for onchain traffic. Traffic necessary to generate the volume of tx fees that will incentivise the miners to keep mining. That block reward is only ever gonna get smaller....

*Bitcoin* will prevail though. As its utility continues to increase its base price will be supported. The s-curve of adoption is a much more powerful and sustainable driver of price, than speculative run-ups.

In fact USD is only really a proxy measure for value. Bitcoin's true value comes from the ways in which you can use it.

The hardest part is finding Bitcoin. It isn't going to be handed to you on a plate, the vary nature of humans competing ensures that it will be made difficult. So my advice is look in the places where it is hard to look. Consider things that are difficult to consider. Weigh everything carefully. Think about what people's incentives are. When the replies inevitably come to this thread about me being a BSV shill think about why those people are posting. I don't blame them they see BSV as a massive threat (why?). I've a long history on this forum of being a massive Bitcoin bull, because I could see its potential. Over the years I have come to learn so much more that it has gone way beyond what I could even imagination. It baffles me that people aren't looking at that, and instead are still trying to see Bitcoin and/or any other currency they might be HODLing as solely some kind of get rich scheme. Bitcoin is so much more. The people that find it now (ie truly grok it) are basically in the same position as the people that found it back in 2010/11 the opportunity is huge. Not to buy it and get rich but to get into the space early and build products and services before anyone else realises what is going on.

Caveat Emptor. DYOR.

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[fabiorem]

I used BSV and it took more than 24 hours to complete a transaction. This was during the chinese bull run (may 2019), when the network was clogged.

Whereas with bitcoin, when it was clogged (december 2017), didnt took more than 6 hours.

Someone might argue its because BSV dont have enough miners, but then, it have less users as well.

[gentlemand]

I used BSV and it took more than 24 hours to complete a transaction. This was during the chinese bull run (may 2019), when the network was clogged.

Whereas with bitcoin, when it was clogged (december 2017), didnt took more than 6 hours.

Someone might argue its because BSV dont have enough miners, but then, it have less users as well.

I sold some BSV for LTC through Okex.

They wouldn't release the LTC until there were 200 BSV confirmations which took about 2-3 days of waiting.

Coin of the future I tells ya and superb endorsement of its peerless security.

[BChydro]

I sold some BSV for LTC through Okex.
They wouldn't release the LTC until there were 200 BSV confirmations which took about 2-3 days of waiting.
Coin of the future I tells ya and superb endorsement of its peerless security.

I have not used BSV and hence i am not sure about the delay in transaction but it looks like the problem you faced is because of OKex because of their policy of having 200 confirmation, if you are not able to have a fluid transaction in exchanges then it is highly unlikely that people will be using that coin.

@OP did you just edit the thread now seeing the price of bitcoin going down, i like the bottom price and if that will happen then i will be glad to invest once again , but apart from these speculation i am not expecting the market to go down below $5k even in the worst case scenario.

[gentlemand]

I have not used BSV and hence i am not sure about the delay in transaction but it looks like the problem you faced is because of OKex because of their policy of having 200 confirmation, if you are not able to have a fluid transaction in exchanges then it is highly unlikely that people will be using that coin.

It's nothing to do with Okex. It's to do with the pathetic lack of the coin's security. They can't trust it to not be double spent or hard forked until there's a mountain of confirmations which is why they insist on holding on to it for so long.

Weakness isn't a problem for running yesterday's weather through it. For anything else it sure as shit is.

[sgbett]

...think about why those people are posting...

Why *are* they posting?

One of them claims it took 24 hours for a tx. Which is just hilarious, given how trivial it is to demonstrate that tx are almost instant.

Another claims there OKex need 200 confirmations for security. I wonder how smart you have to be to use and exchange that requires 200 confs but you pin it on security all you want. Again, hilarious once you understand the actual security model of bitcoin (hint: its not waiting for confirmations).

Keep blundering on in the dark though. At this point, everyone has had fair warning, so expect some schadenfreude.

[fabiorem]

I used BSV and it took more than 24 hours to complete a transaction. This was during the chinese bull run (may 2019), when the network was clogged.

Whereas with bitcoin, when it was clogged (december 2017), didnt took more than 6 hours.

Someone might argue its because BSV dont have enough miners, but then, it have less users as well.

I sold some BSV for LTC through Okex.

They wouldn't release the LTC until there were 200 BSV confirmations which took about 2-3 days of waiting.

Coin of the future I tells ya and superb endorsement of its peerless security.

In my case it took more than 24 hours for the first confirmation. I sold it for BTC.

[Febo]

Also, credit when it's due, I checked this again and even though you were very wrong about 2018, your price mid 2019 looks amazingly correct.
I mean look at that chart with the peak at 13k in May-June 2019, this call was amazing. Kudos.

Man just look at it. It is just copy/pasted a 1 year chart over a 3 years.  Of course he cant be totally right. LOL.   OP thinks that halving will from now on happen every 12 years and not anymore every 4 years.

[Bossian]

Bitcoin can definitely have a future.

But I agree that 2020 and 2021 won't be good.

About the bottom in February 2021, we will see. But after that, it could be a new cycle, it could take a while but 2023-2026 could be epic if we repeat the bull run of 2017, with of course a much higher high than 19k. This game is for patient people.

[Bossian]

@ sgbett

Since you are into alt coins (BSV apparently which is not my cup of tea), what do you think of Monero?

[El duderino_]

Good good every 40-50-60y old will love to wait 10-20-30 years to succeed in your guys theories

They can’t be more wrong imo  (your theories)

With increase of users daily ... more and more adoption .... more and more acceptance.... more and more knowledge from more and more people about why BTC is a better money ... more and more knowledge it’s the only true scarce digital fast sendable decentralized money and so much more that gets figured out more and more by more and more people....
And you guys still talking the market will slow down for year’s and years

It’s just a moving train leaving behind the d*mb and those that don’t wanna see what’s good.....

Of-course we can all have different approaches and way of thinking, but some claims are just outrageous and stupid....

Either way, one of the two sides of the coin will come up, let’s see which one gonna make through...

[El duderino_]

Also stop drinking the alt-coin kool-aid.... it’s like energy drinks unhealthy poison.... just like there water etc is the long term better one

[fabiorem]

Bitcoin can definitely have a future.

But I agree that 2020 and 2021 won't be good.

About the bottom in February 2021, we will see. But after that, it could be a new cycle, it could take a while but 2023-2026 could be epic if we repeat the bull run of 2017, with of course a much higher high than 19k. This game is for patient people.

You stretched it too much. I dont believe it will take that long.

If we are going to see 2k, it will be next year, not 2021.

Also, sgbear will make a three-digit prediction for 2050 if we reach 2k in 2021. I dont see bitcoin having a future with three digits, it would be the victory of the fiat system, which is what every bear wants.

[Bossian]

Bitcoin can definitely have a future.

But I agree that 2020 and 2021 won't be good.

About the bottom in February 2021, we will see. But after that, it could be a new cycle, it could take a while but 2023-2026 could be epic if we repeat the bull run of 2017, with of course a much higher high than 19k. This game is for patient people.

You stretched it too much. I dont believe it will take that long.

If we are going to see 2k, it will be next year, not 2021.

Also, sgbear will make a three-digit prediction for 2050 if we reach 2k in 2021. I dont see bitcoin having a future with three digits, it would be the victory of the fiat system, which is what every bear wants.

Imagine if BTC price goes back to 1k. There will be panic but it's a big resistance, no one is looking at it right but if that happened, 1k would be a great price to buy IMO.
I am still uncertain it goes back to 1k. To be honest if I had to guess right now, I would say BTC won't go back to 1k, but possibly 2k indeed. There are big resistances out there, no one looking at them because they are in the bottom. I can't think of year 2050 to be honest, either BTC is a true currency at this stage or it died. All of us want our profits before 2030. I would say year 2026 is a good target, BTC price could be epic but that's still early to talk about it.
My opinion is based on the fact that so far BTC price is almost 100% technical and almost 0% fundamental. There will always be people speculating as long as money can be made but of course BTC will (should) evolve too (and the whole environment with it).

[fabiorem]

The problem is not the price, its the time.

If you stretch it too much, bitcoin will fail for its initial purpose, which was as a replacement for gold and fiat currencies.
Fiat currencies were based on gold before. So the idea would be that bitcoin, replacing gold, would become the base for a new global currency. For this, it needs to grow in value.

Value is fundamental to money. Bitcoin need to have at least the same marketcap of gold, which implies a high value.

Bitcoin have 10 years. A six-year cycle already covers more than half of its current age. When it reaches 20 years, then you can talk about long bear markets.

[exstasie]

The problem is not the price, its the time.

If you stretch it too much, bitcoin will fail for its initial purpose, which was as a replacement for gold and fiat currencies.

That was never Bitcoin's purpose. It was presented as an alternative form of money, not a replacement for anything. I don't see why it would "fail" if the price doesn't go up fast enough.

Fiat currencies were based on gold before. So the idea would be that bitcoin, replacing gold, would become the base for a new global currency. For this, it needs to grow in value.

Value is fundamental to money. Bitcoin need to have at least the same marketcap of gold, which implies a high value.

Gold's market cap is arbitrary, especially because it doesn't back money anymore. I don't see why it's relevant to Bitcoin.

[Bossian]

The problem is not the price, its the time.

If you stretch it too much, bitcoin will fail for its initial purpose, which was as a replacement for gold and fiat currencies.
Fiat currencies were based on gold before. So the idea would be that bitcoin, replacing gold, would become the base for a new global currency. For this, it needs to grow in value.

Value is fundamental to money. Bitcoin need to have at least the same marketcap of gold, which implies a high value.

Bitcoin have 10 years. A six-year cycle already covers more than half of its current age. When it reaches 20 years, then you can talk about long bear markets.

Bitcoin has became purely a trading asset, let's be honest, still in 2019 it is almost useless.

Myself I used Bitcoin to deposit and withdraw from sports betting websites (Easysportbet) that was the only times I actually used Bitcoin for a real purpose. With my sports betting activity I won 4k euros this year, not bad. Thanks Bitcoin and horse racing.

But that was still a pain in the ass to withdraw my money in fiat currency. I have a Transferwise account and they refuse bank transfers from crypto exchange websites. In my country half of the banks will ask you questions if you transfer 4000 euros from a Bitcoin related service. That sucks but it is what it is 

Now when you sign up with Bitwala, you have to enter your country of residence for tax purpose.  Which means Bitwala will share your trading history with third parties so that you pay taxes in your country.

But other than that, Bitcoin is almost useless, it is purely a speculation asset, therefore my belief is that Bitcoin almost always follows the technical analysis patterns, plain and simple. It proved countless of times. Bear market until 2022, after that a bull run is still likely, unless Bitcoin has completely vanished of course.

[Clement Kaliyar]

Imagine if BTC price goes back to 1k. There will be panic but it's a big resistance, no one is looking at it right but if that happened, 1k would be a great price to buy IMO.
I am still uncertain it goes back to 1k. To be honest if I had to guess right now, I would say BTC won't go back to 1k, but possibly 2k indeed. There are big resistances out there, no one looking at them because they are in the bottom.

The possibility of seeing the price of bitcoin below $3500 even in the worst case scenario is highly unlikely, people who trust the market and expecting the market to rally will start investing whenever the price of bitcoin goes down and hence we will have a balance as the support is really strong at $6400 with the current market situation and until and unless there is a negative trend i hope we wont break that support level.

[Bossian]

Imagine if BTC price goes back to 1k. There will be panic but it's a big resistance, no one is looking at it right but if that happened, 1k would be a great price to buy IMO.
I am still uncertain it goes back to 1k. To be honest if I had to guess right now, I would say BTC won't go back to 1k, but possibly 2k indeed. There are big resistances out there, no one looking at them because they are in the bottom.

The possibility of seeing the price of bitcoin below $3500 even in the worst case scenario is highly unlikely, people who trust the market and expecting the market to rally will start investing whenever the price of bitcoin goes down and hence we will have a balance as the support is really strong at $6400 with the current market situation and until and unless there is a negative trend i hope we wont break that support level.

Of course I also hope we never break below the 6.4k support, but if we simply look at the facts everything indicates (zigzag ABC correction) that in about 6 months from now, we will be around 5k (more or less, difficult to predict exact prices). Second half of 2020 shouldn't be good either, the correction will hit the market too hard.
Just my 2 cents, let's see in 6 months first, then 12 months.
 

[fabiorem]

Bitcoin is almost useless, it is purely a speculation asset, therefore my belief is that Bitcoin almost always follows the technical analysis patterns, plain and simple. It proved countless of times. Bear market until 2022, after that a bull run is still likely, unless Bitcoin has completely vanished of course.

Bitcoin is almost useless because of bear speculation. Merchants wont adopt it when the price is always going down, they dont want to lose money.

Bear market will not go until 2022, it will go forever. At least, for people like you and the OP. As soon as his bottom is hit, he will make a two-digit prediction for 2100.