Calling top at $16500 (New speculation: Guess the price 19 Feb 2021!)

[exstasie]

Bitcoin is almost useless, it is purely a speculation asset, therefore my belief is that Bitcoin almost always follows the technical analysis patterns, plain and simple. It proved countless of times. Bear market until 2022, after that a bull run is still likely, unless Bitcoin has completely vanished of course.

Bitcoin is almost useless because of bear speculation. Merchants wont adopt it when the price is always going down, they dont want to lose money.

Who cares about merchants? Why do you think utility revolves around merchant adoption?

The vast majority of gold usage is in value storage and speculation: bars/coins sitting in vaults and safes, trading on commodities markets. Do merchants accept gold? No! Does it have an $8 trillion market cap? Yes!

Plus, merchants are inherently late adopters because they are not speculators. Speculation naturally precedes adoption because no one knows whether BTC will catch on. That's exactly what speculators are betting on in these early years. Merchants will only be dragged along once consumers demand it as a medium of exchange. And the fact is, consumers may never demand it any more than they do with gold.

There are all different types of money. Some function better as mediums of exchange than others. That doesn't mean those primarily serving as stores of value have no utility.

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[Bossian]

Bitcoin is almost useless, it is purely a speculation asset, therefore my belief is that Bitcoin almost always follows the technical analysis patterns, plain and simple. It proved countless of times. Bear market until 2022, after that a bull run is still likely, unless Bitcoin has completely vanished of course.

Bitcoin is almost useless because of bear speculation. Merchants wont adopt it when the price is always going down, they dont want to lose money.

Bear market will not go until 2022, it will go forever. At least, for people like you and the OP. As soon as his bottom is hit, he will make a two-digit prediction for 2100.

Not my fault if now it's possible to place bets on BTC price going down, don't think it was possible back in 2017? Crazy year that was!




@Clement Kaliyar  
Would you agree with the following bet?

BTC price to go below 6k before 31 May 2020?

No it doesn't > I pay you 0.05 BTC
Yes it does > You pay me 0.05 BTC (my address is in my signature, I already have a long term pending bet )

Waiting for your reply on this.

Bitcoin is almost useless, it is purely a speculation asset, therefore my belief is that Bitcoin almost always follows the technical analysis patterns, plain and simple. It proved countless of times. Bear market until 2022, after that a bull run is still likely, unless Bitcoin has completely vanished of course.

Bitcoin is almost useless because of bear speculation. Merchants wont adopt it when the price is always going down, they dont want to lose money.

Who cares about merchants? Why do you think utility revolves around merchant adoption?

The vast majority of gold usage is in value storage and speculation: bars/coins sitting in vaults and safes, trading on commodities markets. Do merchants accept gold? No! Does it have an $8 trillion market cap? Yes!

Plus, merchants are inherently late adopters because they are not speculators. Speculation naturally precedes adoption because no one knows whether BTC will catch on. That's exactly what speculators are betting on in these early years. Merchants will only be dragged along once consumers demand it as a medium of exchange. And the fact is, consumers may never demand it any more than they do with gold.

There are all different types of money. Some function better as mediums of exchange than others. That doesn't mean those primarily serving as stores of value have no utility.

Very fair point.

[sgbett]

@ sgbett

Since you are into alt coins (BSV apparently which is not my cup of tea), what do you think of Monero?

All alts are trash.

I'm a Bitcoin maximalist.

[Bossian]

@ sgbett

Since you are into alt coins (BSV apparently which is not my cup of tea), what do you think of Monero?

All alts are trash.

I'm a Bitcoin maximalist.

Thought BSV was the real deal or I missed the sarcasm?  

[sgbett]

There is no Sarcasm. BSV/BTC are tickers. I am a *Bitcoin* maximalist.

BSV most closely matches what I understand Bitcoin to be. If the BSV dev team drop the ball on restoring Bitcoin (unlikely given they have Satoshi amongst them) then it would become as dead to me as BTC, BCH and every other alt coin out their.

But this thread is not about me (well apart from my amazing predictive skills ) its about the price of BTC, which looks like this...



I don't know how anyone can look at that chart and be bullish.

Downward channel, lower highs, lower lows and that death cross looks pretty bleak.

Can somebody draw me a chart that shows a way out? cos I cannot see one right now.

[Bossian]

The death cross was deadly and will give us bad years for at least 2020 and 2021, we need a reversal in 2022-2023, because otherwise I tend to agree with you, nothing bullish to be seen anytime soon. Still money to be made if you are a skilled trader.

[sgbett]

The death cross was deadly and will give us bad years for at least 2020 and 2021, we need a reversal in 2022-2023, because otherwise I tend to agree with you, nothing bullish to be seen anytime soon. Still money to be made if you are a skilled trader.

Maybe for others, not for me I'm no trader. What I post here is *definitely* not trading advice

[Bossian]

The death cross was deadly and will give us bad years for at least 2020 and 2021, we need a reversal in 2022-2023, because otherwise I tend to agree with you, nothing bullish to be seen anytime soon. Still money to be made if you are a skilled trader.

Maybe for others, not for me I'm no trader. What I post here is *definitely* not trading advice

Well when I see your chart posted in the first pages here, that was a good tool to make money.

Posted in February 2018



The chart was not perfect but it clearly predicted the peak of mid-2019. Frankly impressive, one of the best "long term" prediction I have seen. Hope you followed your own advice

On topic, even though you are no trader I think the forum would appreciate your unbiased opinion as the following months unfold, even though unpopular opinions (= bearish views) are not appreciated by everyone here.

[Clement Kaliyar]

~snip
Of course I also hope we never break below the 6.4k support, but if we simply look at the facts everything indicates (zigzag ABC correction) that in about 6 months from now, we will be around 5k (more or less, difficult to predict exact prices). Second half of 2020 shouldn't be good either, the correction will hit the market too hard.
Just my 2 cents, let's see in 6 months first, then 12 months.
 

To be frank i do not believe in charts in the crypto market as nothing will perform like we speculate and here is a market that would go down if you see ten thousand bitcoin being transferred to any exchange then you will see the market going down and in that kind of market what can we predict and expect in the short term but in the long term i am bullish.

[sgbett]

The death cross was deadly and will give us bad years for at least 2020 and 2021, we need a reversal in 2022-2023, because otherwise I tend to agree with you, nothing bullish to be seen anytime soon. Still money to be made if you are a skilled trader.

Maybe for others, not for me I'm no trader. What I post here is *definitely* not trading advice

Well when I see your chart posted in the first pages here, that was a good tool to make money.

Posted in February 2018



The chart was not perfect but it clearly predicted the peak of mid-2019. Frankly impressive, one of the best "long term" prediction I have seen. Hope you followed your own advice

On topic, even though you are no trader I think the forum would appreciate your unbiased opinion as the following months unfold, even though unpopular opinions (= bearish views) are not appreciated by everyone here.

Thanks, It's still got some to play out. If it continue to slide through 2020 then by the end of the year I'll probably consider myself as having called it.

It's hard to know what my "unbiased opinion" would be nowadays. When I made the original call it was just about the way group psychology plays out during sell offs. So it could apply to any coin, whether I believed in them or not. It wasn't because I believed bitcoin had failed, but because I had just seen a run-up and thought that it should be possible to predict how the sell of would progress... so far so good.

To make any further forecast about price once we hit that $2500 region is difficult, because then the price is more a reflection of fundamentals i.e. the s-curve of adoption.

So that would mean looking at usage, and future utility. Whether or not will continue to grow in adoption. I think Bitcoin will, more so than ever now I know about the ins and outs of SCRIPT (mind blown btw) and the ways in which it is possible to scale massively on-chain. The projects being built on BSV are just a taste of what is to come - staunch BTC supporters mock them, not realising what these projects represent - they are the "Hello, world!" type applications you create when you first learn a new technology. They are proofs of concepts, they are the Webcrawlers, the Altavistas,  the Compuserves. BSV facilitates this because of its philosophy of acting as a dumb protocol on the base layer. BSVs stated goal is to do this within the existing legal and regulatory frameworks. This makes a lot of sense given the history of cryptocurrency (I'm talking about pre-bitcoin) if you don't know the pre-history its worth knowing because it underpins why Bitcoin is a public ledger, and why it does not facilitate anonymous transactions.

Over in Bitcoin, I see some of the innovation coming out of Blockstream and I see continued development of LN protocol. However these innovations change the very nature of the BTC network/blockchain. Keeping a block size limit (1mb or otherwise) has ramifications such as perverting the incentive mechanism meaning that the mining fees do not naturally replace thee block reward over time. Pushing tx off chain into LN not only deprives miners of fees (further dis-incentivising them from mining), but it opens up legal ramifications on node operators. Furthermore it takes then network from being a sybil resistant hyper-connected network of miners, to one which the Lightning Network white paper (yes I have read that too) itself describes as "Eventually, with optimizations, the network will look a lot like the correspondent banking network, or Tier-1 ISPs."

source: https://lightning.network/lightning-network-paper.pdf (Section 8.4 Payment Routing, pp48)

So my previous forecast of run ups have all had this inherent bias towards Bitcoin's success. I still have that bias, as outlined above with what I see happening on BSV right now.

If I believed BTC still had the same value proposition as  Bitcoin I'd tell you that the bottom at 2500 would precede a couple years slow growth which would take you back to maybe $10k and then you'd probably get another run up to 6 figures maybe $150k or something. Which would eventually top and there would be another one of these correction cycles.

However because I beleive that BTC no longer has that value proposition, then that leads me to believe that their is no price support from the s-curve of adoption base value. So unless something changes with respect to BTC's usage, adoption and/or utility then sadly I do not think its price will recover.

The worst part of all, is that the market will probably just carry on dragging along for a while (maybe not until 2050 eh fabiorem? I have a little faith that people are smart enough that they will figure out what is going on before then. By that I mean the world outside of Bitcointalk ) so even my "beloved" BSV will likely suffer as the slide continues.

Although, when that bonded courier turns up, things could change pretty fast

[AakZaki]

Well when I see your chart posted in the first pages here, that was a good tool to make money.

Posted in February 2018



The chart was not perfect but it clearly predicted the peak of mid-2019. Frankly impressive, one of the best "long term" prediction I have seen. Hope you followed your own advice

On topic, even though you are no trader I think the forum would appreciate your unbiased opinion as the following months unfold, even though unpopular opinions (= bearish views) are not appreciated by everyone here.

I disagree about the two kinds of charts that you made, because I see you equating the price decline in 2014 and 2018. And why did the bear market in 2014 only occur until 2015? while the bear market in 2018 is until around 2021?

if you should look at the bear market patterns of 2014 and 2018, then in the bear market in 2018 it should also occur only for one year, namely up to 2019. then on what basis did you write in 2021 the price of the BTC was only $ 2438 whereas what I know after bitcoin halving one year later there will be a bull market, as has happened in 2016-2017. if there is a clear reason your analysis will be highly appreciated.

[sgbett]

Well when I see your chart posted in the first pages here, that was a good tool to make money.

Posted in February 2018



The chart was not perfect but it clearly predicted the peak of mid-2019. Frankly impressive, one of the best "long term" prediction I have seen. Hope you followed your own advice

On topic, even though you are no trader I think the forum would appreciate your unbiased opinion as the following months unfold, even though unpopular opinions (= bearish views) are not appreciated by everyone here.

I disagree about the two kinds of charts that you made, because I see you equating the price decline in 2014 and 2018. And why did the bear market in 2014 only occur until 2015? while the bear market in 2018 is until around 2021?

if you should look at the bear market patterns of 2014 and 2018, then in the bear market in 2018 it should also occur only for one year, namely up to 2019. then on what basis did you write in 2021 the price of the BTC was only $ 2438 whereas what I know after bitcoin halving one year later there will be a bull market, as has happened in 2016-2017. if there is a clear reason your analysis will be highly appreciated.

I explained it in the acccomponying post at the time. Essentially I think that because the market is bigger it has more momentum and crowd psychology type moves take longer to play out...

Assuming the initial sell-offs are correlated in magnitude, we can see that this market is playing out slower - expected as its bigger. Approx 2.8 times slower to be exact.

If we plug the % moves, and the duration (x2.83) into the current ATH we get a *very* simplistic picture of what would happen if this plays out like gox.

[exstasie]

But this thread is not about me (well apart from my amazing predictive skills ) its about the price of BTC, which looks like this...



I don't know how anyone can look at that chart and be bullish.

Downward channel, lower highs, lower lows and that death cross looks pretty bleak.

Can somebody draw me a chart that shows a way out? cos I cannot see one right now.

The chart looked pretty bleak in autumn 2015 coming off this death cross too, but we all know what happened next:



There's no point making predictions. That only reinforces biases and causes one to dig their heels in when the market moves against them. Sort of like how you were calling the top since $9,500 on the way to $13,800 this year.

It's more important to react to the market. In that vein, let's say hypothetically that the market bucks the death cross like in October 2015, breaks the downward channel, etc. Will you still be bearish?

[sgbett]

Yes that chart there is a death cross, but what you are looking at there as a 200 day EMA that is undergoing a reversal. So I would consider the death cross a false signal. I'd say it's the golden cross just before that you would want to pay attention to. (20/20 Hindsight yeah I know!)

In the current scenario, 200 day EMA is rolling over so the death cross is basically confirmation of trend.

My prediction has a mother year to play out, so even if you get a short term spike up, I don't think it would signal the end of the long term bear market.

[figmentofmyass]

I would consider the death cross a false signal. I'd say it's the golden cross just before that you would want to pay attention to. (20/20 Hindsight yeah I know!)

exactly. the same thing occurred this year. we had a golden cross (daily 50/200 cross) in april 2019. the comparison to 2015 suggests that the current death cross may be a false one.

My prediction has a mother year to play out, so even if you get a short term spike up, I don't think it would signal the end of the long term bear market.

there has been immense accumulation or distribution occurring over the 6 months since the $14k top. so if the june high is broken, retesting the ATH is in the bag IMO.

[STT]

I dont tend to go with that cross stuff, MA is just momentum of previous pricing which is worth paying attention to.    Right now 200 DMA isnt a negative, it has flattened out but was still rising till just recently.   I would equate that to a more neutral long term bias then it might feel just this moment.
   My immediate reaction to current action is that its struggling too often to be anywhere near to positive for near term.



Failing to break upwards like this unless it resolves better in the next few 4hr bars, that would seem to be a failed move.   I think the phrase the trader I follow says is failed moves lead to fast moves, in that if we do attempt upwards and lose our footing and pull back down then take that as a knock back and its negative sentiment to be wary of.
    This is just 3 min bars, while I wasn't paying attention I now wish I'd placed a short on that pin though Im not sure my account is even that responsive on orders as its quite briefly attempted 7727.   My take is, more negatives to digest.

[sgbett]

I dont tend to go with that cross stuff, MA is just momentum of previous pricing which is worth paying attention to.    Right now 200 DMA isnt a negative, it has flattened out but was still rising till just recently.   I would equate that to a more neutral long term bias then it might feel just this moment.
   My immediate reaction to current action is that its struggling too often to be anywhere near to positive for near term.



Failing to break upwards like this unless it resolves better in the next few 4hr bars, that would seem to be a failed move.   I think the phrase the trader I follow says is failed moves lead to fast moves, in that if we do attempt upwards and lose our footing and pull back down then take that as a knock back and its negative sentiment to be wary of.
    This is just 3 min bars, while I wasn't paying attention I now wish I'd placed a short on that pin though Im not sure my account is even that responsive on orders as its quite briefly attempted 7727.   My take is, more negatives to digest.

Some good points STT. Whatever your long-term outlook on BTC is, even if I am massively wrong and it doe's have another Hail Mary in it at some point, I don't think there is anything in the market that suggests its in the short-medium term.

All this bearish action needs to get fully rinsed out for a new bull market to start.

exactly. the same thing occurred this year. we had a golden cross (daily 50/200 cross) in april 2019. the comparison to 2015 suggests that the current death cross may be a false one.

the death cross is conformation of the 200d EMA changing direction, thats why the one in July 2015 matters more than the one in September, the september one was meaningless because the 200d EMA had already turned up.

So the cross that just happened, was as the 200d EMA rolled over, so you might see the 50d EMA cross back above, that will be the false signal, because the 200d is going down. The 50d will fall right back in line with the trend. (Just like it did back in 2015)

"retesting the ATH is in the bag IMO" sounds like wishful thinking in the circumstances. Are you *sure* you are being objective?

[d5000]

Who cares about merchants? Why do you think utility revolves around merchant adoption?

The vast majority of gold usage is in value storage and speculation: bars/coins sitting in vaults and safes, trading on commodities markets. Do merchants accept gold? No! Does it have an $8 trillion market cap? Yes!

Sorry to comment some days late, but that is one of my favourite topics.

The problem with Bitcoin is that it's essentially a big circlejerk. If the price is going up because speculators bet that it will "become big", miners will follow, providing more security. You could think that this could be a good sign and a precondition for an adoption as a store of value (as the well-known "collectible -> store of value -> medium of exchange -> unit of account" theory shows).

The problem that it can always be the other way around. There is no security that the price will stay high, that security (provided by miners) will stay sufficient, and so on. If we break the long-term positive adoption/price trend somewhen, then the price could go to almost zero, and security will follow. Bitcoin was created out of thin air, it can also disappear.

That's where the comparison with gold fails imo, because gold at least has some "base value" because of its traditional and industrial use. The question is then: can Bitcoin provide a similar "base value"?

I think yes, and this base value is provided by merchant adoption. If people realize the value of the protocol as a way to provide an "account" for payments and savings to everyone without banks and intermediaries, and adoption follows, then there will be always a market for Bitcoin if there is merchant adoption. Merchants stabilize the value, above all once they use Bitcoin as the primary unit of account.

It's not a problem that now the merchant adoption is low, that can follow, we still have time for that. But eventually, before mass adoption really catches on, we come into a situation where, without merchant adoption, we're heading for a very bumpy ride in the future, with uncertain outcome.

Plus, merchants are inherently late adopters because they are not speculators. Speculation naturally precedes adoption because no one knows whether BTC will catch on. That's exactly what speculators are betting on in these early years. Merchants will only be dragged along once consumers demand it as a medium of exchange. And the fact is, consumers may never demand it any more than they do with gold.

Here I agree completely with you.

[figmentofmyass]

the death cross is conformation of the 200d EMA changing direction, thats why the one in July 2015 matters more than the one in September, the september one was meaningless because the 200d EMA had already turned up.

different strokes for different folks, i guess. i've never looked at the 200dema direction as an indicator like that, or backtested it on other markets. i would say we need several more years data to say how informative that is for bitcoin.

"retesting the ATH is in the bag IMO" sounds like wishful thinking in the circumstances. Are you *sure* you are being objective?

you omitted the conditional. i said it's in the bag if the june 2019 highs are broken. if that happens, a massive number of sellers and shorters will be trapped and will drive a run to the ATH. compared to the rally this year, it would be a very modest target.

there has been immense accumulation or distribution occurring over the 6 months since the $14k top. so if the june high is broken, retesting the ATH is in the bag IMO.

[Bossian]

the death cross is conformation of the 200d EMA changing direction, thats why the one in July 2015 matters more than the one in September, the september one was meaningless because the 200d EMA had already turned up.

different strokes for different folks, i guess. i've never looked at the 200dema direction as an indicator like that, or backtested it on other markets. i would say we need several more years data to say how informative that is for bitcoin.

"retesting the ATH is in the bag IMO" sounds like wishful thinking in the circumstances. Are you *sure* you are being objective?

you omitted the conditional. i said it's in the bag if the june 2019 highs are broken. if that happens, a massive number of sellers and shorters will be trapped and will drive a run to the ATH. compared to the rally this year, it would be a very modest target.

there has been immense accumulation or distribution occurring over the 6 months since the $14k top. so if the june high is broken, retesting the ATH is in the bag IMO.

Yes totally agree here, said it before, I think if we ever go back to 13k range then Bitcoin price will very quickly head to 20k. There should be a resistance at 20k though (because of the previous ATH) but it's more a psychological resistance, it wouldn't hold for too long and 25/30k should be fairly easy.
The issue I have is that this 13k price will be extremely tough to reach again, and IMO it won't happen next year or even in 2021. I have a price in the 5k-6k range for end of next year.

I believe year 2020 will be unusually "stable" (so to speak) with a price staying between 6k to 9k most of the time. At this moment most holders will wonder if it is a dead end...